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  #4181  
Old 18.03.2020, 22:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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A request for everyone to applaud our medical personnel on Friday at 12.30.

https://amp.blick.ch/meinung/ringier...d15801395.html
I like the idea.


Hope it's not just Ringier trying to find out how many read the Blick.
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  #4182  
Old 18.03.2020, 22:44
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Re: Coronavirus

Graphs and numbers for those inclined (only CH numbers):
https://dashcoch.herokuapp.com/

With this prediction for the next 2 days, getting to circa 4500 cases reported.

Attached Thumbnails
coronavirus-newplot.png  
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  #4183  
Old 18.03.2020, 22:51
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Re: Coronavirus

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Graphs and numbers for those inclined (only CH numbers):
https://dashcoch.herokuapp.com/

With this prediction for the next 2 days, getting to circa 4500 cases reported.
What makes you think that at this moment they start doubling amount of tests performed?
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  #4184  
Old 18.03.2020, 22:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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Graphs and numbers for those inclined (only CH numbers):
https://dashcoch.herokuapp.com/

With this prediction for the next 2 days, getting to circa 4500 cases reported.

And these are the predicted numbers for those actually tested! How many infected who have not been tested because they don't meet the criteria? To me, therein lies the issue and why all should try and self quarantine as much as possible.

Easier said than done for me as I am active by nature but perhaps I may learn something by disciplining myself and staying indoors more? Like, maybe I should do a Spring Clean of our flat - the one I keep procrastinating? I have discovered that I am really proficient at procrastination when it suits me. EF is quite useful in this regard Sad but true ...
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  #4185  
Old 18.03.2020, 23:22
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Re: Coronavirus

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What makes you think that at this moment they start doubling amount of tests performed?
At this stage "we" know that tests performed show the progression of infected cases showing strong symptoms.

Predictions come from here:
https://www.kaggle.com/daenuprobst/c...and-per-canton

The code taken from there (for those inclined):

Quote:
# Fit an exponential
n = 2
future_values = [[] for i in range(n)]
for column in df:
if column == "Date": continue
try:
values = [v for v in df[column] if v == v]
nan_indices = np.where(np.isnan(df[column]))[0]
popt, pcov = curve_fit(exponenial_func, list(range(0, len(values))), values, p0=(1, 1e-6, 1))
xx = range(0, len(df[column]) + n)
yy = exponenial_func(xx, *popt)

for i in nan_indices:
df[column].iloc[i] = yy[i]


for i in range(n):
future_values[i].append(yy[l + i])
except:
for i in range(n):
future_values[i].append(df[column].iloc[-1])



for i in range(n):
future_values[i] = [round(num, 0) for num in future_values[i]]

future_values[0] = [dt.datetime.strftime(dt.datetime.strptime(df["Date"].iloc[-1], "%Y-%m-%d") + dt.timedelta(days=1), "%Y-%m-%d")] + future_values[0]
for i in range(1, n):
future_values[i] = [dt.datetime.strftime(dt.datetime.strptime(future_v alues[i-1][0], "%Y-%m-%d") + dt.timedelta(days=1), "%Y-%m-%d")] + future_values[i]


for row in future_values:
df.loc[len(df)] = row

df.fillna(method="pad", inplace=True)

for col in df:
if col == "Date": continue
df[col] = df[col].astype(int)

df.to_csv("combined.csv", index=False)

Last edited by fkdstm; 18.03.2020 at 23:32.
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  #4186  
Old 18.03.2020, 23:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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Graphs and numbers for those inclined (only CH numbers):
https://dashcoch.herokuapp.com/

With this prediction for the next 2 days, getting to circa 4500 cases reported.

March 15 really ruined the exponential growth curve.
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  #4187  
Old 18.03.2020, 23:39
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Re: Coronavirus

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March 15 really ruined the exponential growth curve.
I still feel that anything after March 15th got under-reported.
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Old 19.03.2020, 00:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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I still feel that anything after March 15th got under-reported.
I share a similar intuition. Not sure if it is due to a lack of testing or measurement/"accounting" error, tho.

Earlier I asked whether BAG stopped posting numbers since Monday. To double-check if I remembered things wrongly, I went back to their official twitter. Turned out there was at least a bit of inconsistency...

On March 15 (Sunday), they reported an 800ish increase since March 14 (1359 positive). The exact text was "Stand 15.03 sind ca. 2200 positiv getestete Fälle in CH und FL. Davon liegt bei 1563 Fällen eine Bestätigung vor, bei 152 Fällen ist die Bestätigung ausstehend und bei ca. 440 Fällen ist die Meldung noch nicht abschliessend erfasst."

On March 16 (Monday), the text was "16.03 Aktuell liegt bei 1680 Fällen eine Bestätigung vor, bei 167 Fällen ist die Bestätigung ausstehend. Ca. 480 Meldungen sind noch nicht erfasst. Entsprechend wird die Zahl der positiv getesteten Fälle auf über 2200 geschätzt."

On March 17 (Tuesday), the increase went back to 300ish: "17.03 Aktuell liegt bei 2269 Fällen eine Bestätigung vor, bei 162 Fällen ist die Bestätigung ausstehend. Ca. 270 Meldungen sind noch nicht erfasst. Entsprechend wird die Zahl der positiv getesteten Fälle auf ca. 2650 geschätzt. "
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  #4189  
Old 19.03.2020, 00:07
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Re: Coronavirus

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Hi there, thanks for your help, not sure about the groan? Our children are school-aged but young, and while the KiTas are open, after inquiring, our school district in Zurich is only offering the emergency school care for parents in essential functions. I am glad that at least that exists for those parents, happily also at reduced prices.
From what I understand, although your employer must let you go to look after the children, the onus is on you to do all in your power to find someone to take care of them, so you can go back to work. You're supposed, apparently, to perform this miracle within 3(!) days. Although it's not yet clear what will happen if you don't succeed, at some point you will probably be give less work and less money.

However, for miracles, have you tried within EF? Or at one of the organisations coordinating volunteer helpers? Lost_inbroad started a helpline thread for that, and as people post further offers of help, he updates Post 1, by Canton.
https://www.englishforum.ch/daily-li...-helpline.html
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  #4190  
Old 19.03.2020, 00:07
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Re: Coronavirus

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I share a similar intuition. Not sure if it is due to a lack of testing or measurement/"accounting" error, tho.

Earlier I asked whether BAG stopped posting numbers since Monday. To double-check if I remembered things wrongly, I went back to their official twitter. Turned out there was at least a bit of inconsistency...

On March 15 (Sunday), they reported an 800ish increase since March 14 (1359 positive). The exact text was "Stand 15.03 sind ca. 2200 positiv getestete Fälle in CH und FL. Davon liegt bei 1563 Fällen eine Bestätigung vor, bei 152 Fällen ist die Bestätigung ausstehend und bei ca. 440 Fällen ist die Meldung noch nicht abschliessend erfasst."

On March 16 (Monday), the text was "16.03 Aktuell liegt bei 1680 Fällen eine Bestätigung vor, bei 167 Fällen ist die Bestätigung ausstehend. Ca. 480 Meldungen sind noch nicht erfasst. Entsprechend wird die Zahl der positiv getesteten Fälle auf über 2200 geschätzt."

On March 17 (Tuesday), the increase went back to 300ish: "17.03 Aktuell liegt bei 2269 Fällen eine Bestätigung vor, bei 162 Fällen ist die Bestätigung ausstehend. Ca. 270 Meldungen sind noch nicht erfasst. Entsprechend wird die Zahl der positiv getesteten Fälle auf ca. 2650 geschätzt. "
Worldometer got Switzerland at 3'115 cases.
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  #4191  
Old 19.03.2020, 00:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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I share a similar intuition. Not sure if it is due to a lack of testing or measurement/"accounting" error, tho.

Earlier I asked whether BAG stopped posting numbers since Monday. To double-check if I remembered things wrongly, I went back to their official twitter. Turned out there was at least a bit of inconsistency...

On March 15 (Sunday), they reported an 800ish increase since March 14 (1359 positive). The exact text was "Stand 15.03 sind ca. 2200 positiv getestete Fälle in CH und FL. Davon liegt bei 1563 Fällen eine Bestätigung vor, bei 152 Fällen ist die Bestätigung ausstehend und bei ca. 440 Fällen ist die Meldung noch nicht abschliessend erfasst."

On March 16 (Monday), the text was "16.03 Aktuell liegt bei 1680 Fällen eine Bestätigung vor, bei 167 Fällen ist die Bestätigung ausstehend. Ca. 480 Meldungen sind noch nicht erfasst. Entsprechend wird die Zahl der positiv getesteten Fälle auf über 2200 geschätzt."

On March 17 (Tuesday), the increase went back to 300ish: "17.03 Aktuell liegt bei 2269 Fällen eine Bestätigung vor, bei 162 Fällen ist die Bestätigung ausstehend. Ca. 270 Meldungen sind noch nicht erfasst. Entsprechend wird die Zahl der positiv getesteten Fälle auf ca. 2650 geschätzt. "
The elephant in this room is these published numbers do not justify the draconian measures introduced here this week.
To quote from Hamlet; "Something is rotten in the state of Denmark2
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  #4192  
Old 19.03.2020, 00:22
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Re: Coronavirus

Interesting article regarding Switzerland's handling of Coronavirus and the ramifications:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as...oor-2020-03-15
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  #4193  
Old 19.03.2020, 01:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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I thought I should buy a thermometer, I am very rarely ill & know my temperature is on the low side of average. I check it today 35.1 & google suggests I have hypothermia
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Mine is frequently in the 35’s, low 36’s. Could be operator error, thermometer error, or just weird. Did you do it a couple of times?
There's no real accepted "normal" body temperature, and it varies within an individual, for example by time of day, just as it does across different people.

It can be difficult to get an accurate measure too, but it isn't really important, unless it's high. Fever, contrary to what that nutter last week was trying to say, is bad. 39deg or more means the body isn't able to operate properly, 40 plus is a real danger.
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  #4194  
Old 19.03.2020, 07:36
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Re: Coronavirus

And for all those who have shopping withdrawal syndrome you can always use vitrual shopping to help you through the serious downs!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9EoKDqAWqc
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  #4195  
Old 19.03.2020, 07:58
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Re: Coronavirus

Take this as good news I guess, assuming it's right.

"China on Thursday reported no new local contamination with the coronavirus, a first since the beginning of the epidemic. However, health authorities reported 34 additional imported cases.

This number of new infected people coming from abroad is even a daily record, said the Ministry of Health. Most of them are Chinese returning from countries particularly affected by Covid-19.

The new imported cases were reported in Beijing (21), southern Guangdong province (9), Shanghai (2), Heilongjiang (northeast, 1 case) and Zhejiang (east, 1 case). In total, the number of cases now stands at 189 in the country most affected by coronavirus in the world.

Quarantine of new arrivals

To prevent these people from ending up in the wild and re-launching an epidemic that has been largely contained in China, the authorities are now imposing quarantine on anyone arriving on Chinese soil.

In Beijing, they are mostly placed in hotels. However, those living alone, the over-70s, minors and pregnant women can stay at home.

Compared to mid-February, when new contaminations were counted by the thousands every day, the contagion has been practically stopped in the country where it started. China has recorded a total of 80,928 cases, of which 70,420 (87%) have been cured.

In addition, the Ministry of Health announced on Thursday that 8 new deaths had occurred in the last 24 hours, bringing the total to 3,245. Italy is in danger of exceeding this total, which on Wednesday evening totalled 2,978, 475 of them in a single day."

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

https://www.bluewin.ch/fr/infos/fait...ne-370413.html
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  #4196  
Old 19.03.2020, 08:28
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Re: Coronavirus

Don't know if you already watch the daily interview/press conference/daily update with (dr.) Daniel Koch on SRF, this is the best info source for what's happening in CH re. epidemic imo. Stay tuned.
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Old 19.03.2020, 08:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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Don't know if you already watch the daily interview/press conference/daily update with (dr.) Daniel Koch on SRF, this is the best info source for what's happening in CH re. epidemic imo. Stay tuned.
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Old 19.03.2020, 08:43
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Re: Coronavirus

What is interesting is how the whole thing will change the collective consciousness. I always thougt when the year 2000 came that "bang" everything would change. But nature maybe does not work always like that. It maybe took 20 years and now it seems to be the big one.
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Old 19.03.2020, 09:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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I still feel that anything after March 15th got under-reported.
Completely agree with that. I've been watching updates regularly as part of my role at work.

I've said it before, i suspect they haven't increased testing, so we just continue to get a stable trickle of 300 new patients per day, vs the more real picture.

Early last week, we saw increases day on day... the big kick of 800... now its 300-350 per day. that just doesn't seem to add up. Also the deaths are really low vs confirmed cases.. 1% ... which seems odd compared to the rest of the world

The result - I think it will look like they are achieving the "Flattern the Curve" mantra... but if they aren't doing the testing...i wonder if it is all BS.
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Old 19.03.2020, 09:17
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Re: Coronavirus

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Completely agree with that. I've been watching updates regularly as part of my role at work.

I've said it before, i suspect they haven't increased testing, so we just continue to get a stable trickle of 300 new patients per day, vs the more real picture.

Early last week, we saw increases day on day... the big kick of 800... now its 300-350 per day. that just doesn't seem to add up. Also the deaths are really low vs confirmed cases.. 1% ... which seems odd compared to the rest of the world

The result - I think it will look like they are achieving the "Flattern the Curve" mantra... but if they aren't doing the testing...i wonder if it is all BS.
The deaths are lagged and don't correspond to the current infections. You don't catch it and die immediately.

Each day we are having some 3 - 4 deaths now (~29 total) and if you imagine a 7 day lag-time between infection and death that would put it at 29 deaths for ~1000 infections (as of 7 days ago 12.03.2020) or roughly 2%.

I do not know what is the average time between infection and death however.
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