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  #421  
Old 11.02.2020, 21:25
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Re: Coronavirus

I think people exaggerate a lot on the importance of Chinese production.

2 weeks of lost work can be recouped with a few weekends of extra shifts or simply grind them into the ground with 18 hour shirts when they get back. It's why communism exists.

Not like the world will stop because we won't get our crappy phones for a while.

About time Western countries bring some manufacturing back or find alternative suppliers to spread the risk. This will happen again, they won't change anything in the way they eat or live.
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  #422  
Old 11.02.2020, 22:00
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Re: Coronavirus

For us it is mostly inconvenience, for a lot of Chinese it quickly becomes a small disaster. Not working means no payment for most, while the rent and other bills keep on coming and food has to be bought.
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  #423  
Old 11.02.2020, 22:43
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Re: Coronavirus

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For us it is mostly inconvenience, for a lot of Chinese it quickly becomes a small disaster. Not working means no payment for most, while the rent and other bills keep on coming and food has to be bought.
Not really. It basically will mean that they'll work extra to make it up (like Troublawesome said), with anyone owing money getting extra time to pay it back. GDP growth in 2020 in total will obviously be lowered, but I don't expect it to be less than 5% despite it (unless the whole thing takes a completely different term)

I expect it to become under control by early March (read: Economy getting back to normal) and becoming a non-event by mid-April.
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  #424  
Old 11.02.2020, 22:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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Not really. It basically will mean that they'll work extra to make it up (like Troublawesome said), with anyone owing money getting extra time to pay it back. GDP growth in 2020 in total will obviously be lowered, but I don't expect it to be less than 5% despite it (unless the whole thing takes a completely different term)

I expect it to become under control by early March (read: Economy getting back to normal) and becoming a non-event by mid-April.
Like many viruses it might slow down or even go to "sleep" if summer starts, problem is that if we don't manage to take it out before than it has a whole summer to mutate in one or many directions and it starts all over again in Autumn and nobody can predict where it all will pop-up by then, just like every year a new battle starts against the new influenza viruses. Last thing we want is this virus becoming so spread that it joins the group of regularly popping-up diseases.

And working extra sounds nice, but an employer should have the space to do so, a 24hr factory simply only has space for so many employees. Not to mention the people who already work 996 schedules, doing more almost equals suicide.
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  #425  
Old 12.02.2020, 10:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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I think people exaggerate a lot on the importance of Chinese production.

2 weeks of lost work can be recouped with a few weekends of extra shifts or simply grind them into the ground with 18 hour shirts when they get back. It's why communism exists.

Not like the world will stop because we won't get our crappy phones for a while.

About time Western countries bring some manufacturing back or find alternative suppliers to spread the risk. This will happen again, they won't change anything in the way they eat or live.
Liquidity and cash flow matter. People have to eat and pay the rent while shops have unsold inventories, from cars to houses.

Chinese people boast about a high savings rate but investing in illiquid and not diversified assets, such as second house for rent, does not help at crisis times. If your tenant is bankrupt, the assets doesn't generate any cash flow.

We may laugh about crappy phones but if the Chinese don't import enough raw materials others will suffer. For me, 8000 km away from Beijing, it's a sign to stash more cash.
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  #426  
Old 12.02.2020, 11:25
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Re: Coronavirus

On a present note:

Does anyone know of a place in Zürich which has 3-ply surgical masks for sale?

I sorely need some before Saturday evening.
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  #427  
Old 12.02.2020, 12:08
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Re: Coronavirus

Not sure if the BBC is trying to inform or scare us, but this documentary from 2018 aired again last night.
'Contagion: The BBC Four Pandemic'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p059y0p1 It was very informative.
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  #428  
Old 12.02.2020, 13:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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Not sure if the BBC is trying to inform or scare us, but this documentary from 2018 aired again last night.
'Contagion: The BBC Four Pandemic'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p059y0p1 It was very informative.
Also available on zattoo, if BBC iPlayer doesn't work for you.
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  #429  
Old 12.02.2020, 13:27
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Re: Coronavirus

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I think people exaggerate a lot on the importance of Chinese production.

2 weeks of lost work can be recouped with a few weekends of extra shifts or simply grind them into the ground with 18 hour shirts when they get back. It's why communism exists.

Not like the world will stop because we won't get our crappy phones for a while.

About time Western countries bring some manufacturing back or find alternative suppliers to spread the risk. This will happen again, they won't change anything in the way they eat or live.
Why two weeks? It is already much longer?
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  #430  
Old 12.02.2020, 13:50
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Re: Coronavirus

Not really, they were supposed to open a few days ago and it got extended. It is New Year over there so not a big deal so far.
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  #431  
Old 12.02.2020, 14:22
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Re: Coronavirus

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Not really, they were supposed to open a few days ago and it got extended. It is New Year over there so not a big deal so far.
Chinese New Year was the 25th of Jan, and even tho the festival ended 8th of Feb the National Holiday is only from the 24th till the 30th of January. Also there is no indication when the companies will/can open up again for now only more are closing, and many people simply cannot run extra hours afterwards. So yeah this can quickly become a big problem.

Give it a few more weeks and many people in Switzerland will also lose their jobs given how important the Chinese are for our touristic sector.
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  #432  
Old 12.02.2020, 15:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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Also available on zattoo, if BBC iPlayer doesn't work for you.
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Not sure if the BBC is trying to inform or scare us, but this documentary from 2018 aired again last night.
'Contagion: The BBC Four Pandemic'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p059y0p1 It was very informative.
We watched "Contagion" this weekend with Matt Damon et al, well, just because...
Its actually quite a fun drinking game for every time they mention R0 (R-nought).

Quote:
Chinese New Year was the 25th of Jan, and even tho the festival ended 8th of Feb the National Holiday is only from the 24th till the 30th of January. Also there is no indication when the companies will/can open up again for now only more are closing, and many people simply cannot run extra hours afterwards. So yeah this can quickly become a big problem.
Yes - 24/7 factories have no quick capacity levers to pull.

data point: One of our Chinese factories is now "open", but the employees are not showing up. It is located close to Wuhan.
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  #433  
Old 12.02.2020, 16:14
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Chinese New Year was the 25th of Jan, and even tho the festival ended 8th of Feb the National Holiday is only from the 24th till the 30th of January. Also there is no indication when the companies will/can open up again for now only more are closing, and many people simply cannot run extra hours afterwards. So yeah this can quickly become a big problem.

Give it a few more weeks and many people in Switzerland will also lose their jobs given how important the Chinese are for our touristic sector.
I deal a lot with China and most of those factories closed down the weekend of 18/19 Jan to give people time to return home for the holiday so it is coming up to four weeks closure in many places.

Like the common cold virus, this one might prove impossible to contain - currently no signs of the spread slowing!
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  #434  
Old 12.02.2020, 16:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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I deal a lot with China and most of those factories closed down the weekend of 18/19 Jan to give people time to return home for the holiday so it is coming up to four weeks closure in many places.

Like the common cold virus, this one might prove impossible to contain - currently no signs of the spread slowing!
The Chinese say that the spread is slowing down

(now I'll go clean the house while laughing loudly)
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  #435  
Old 12.02.2020, 17:49
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Re: Coronavirus

Is stuff still shipping? From Wish, Bangood, Alibaba etc?

I notice that wish has added to their FAQ that you probably can't catch the virus from a package received from China :-)
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  #436  
Old 13.02.2020, 12:14
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Re: Coronavirus

Hong Kong 7s - originally scheduled to take place at the beginning of April - have been postponed until October.

https://www.scmp.com/sport/hong-kong...d-october-date
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  #437  
Old 13.02.2020, 12:40
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Re: Coronavirus

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Is stuff still shipping? From Wish, Bangood, Alibaba etc?

I notice that wish has added to their FAQ that you probably can't catch the virus from a package received from China :-)
Swiss post said this morning that planes aren't flying to China so stuff isn't being delivered there - consequently these planes aren't coming back here either so packages from China will take quite a long time.

I wouldn't hold your breath if you've ordered something.
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  #438  
Old 13.02.2020, 13:30
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Re: Coronavirus

'Coronavirus cases rise sharply as 242 people die in a single day'
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...erday-11932787

First case diagnosed in London yesterday which isn't good.
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  #439  
Old 13.02.2020, 13:32
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Re: Coronavirus

...and the Formula 1 Grand Prix in Shanghai next April 17-19 is gone. https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/a...NxQB9hj4s.html

It's funny how they said "postponed" when there are other 21 races this year.
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  #440  
Old 13.02.2020, 13:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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Hong Kong 7s - originally scheduled to take place at the beginning of April - have been postponed until October.

https://www.scmp.com/sport/hong-kong...d-october-date
The F1 Chinese GP has been postponed as well, athough a new date hasn't been set, and it may have to be cancelled completely. The Vietnam race will go ahead as scheduled.
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