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  #5141  
Old 25.03.2020, 18:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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  #5142  
Old 25.03.2020, 18:02
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Re: Coronavirus

FWIW

The WHO estimates that between 290,000 and 650,000 respiratory deaths globally each year are associated with seasonal influenza.
Public Health England estimates that on average 17,000 people have died from the flu in England annually between 2014/15 and 2018/19. However, the yearly deaths vary widely¾from a high of 28,330 in 2014/15 to a low of 1,692 in 2018/19. Public Health England does not publish a mortality rate for the flu.
The USA’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) does publish estimates of the number of flu cases annually, including estimates for the number of hospitalisations and the number of deaths. The number of cases has ranged from nine million to 45 million a year, and the number of deaths ranged from 12,000 to 61,000. These figures suggest that over the past decade in the United States, the percentage of flu cases that resulted in hospitalisation has consistently been between 1% and 2%, and the percentage of cases that resulted in death has been between 0.1% and 0.2%.
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  #5143  
Old 25.03.2020, 18:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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Swiss infectiologist believes the lockdown is a political decision and not a scientific

We elect politicians to make political decisions. That is decisions on policy.


Wise political decisions are of course informed by science. But it is very rare that the science points uniquely to one possible solution.


Political decisions are also informed by values, not just by science. For instance if the predicted death toll from the virus was "only" a few thousand then politicians might decide those deaths are an acceptable price to pay to keep the economy going. On the other hand if the predicted toll is millions politicians might decide that drastic economy-crushing responses are required.


It isn't science that says a few thousand deaths are sort of OK and a few million deaths are really not OK.
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  #5144  
Old 25.03.2020, 18:10
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Re: Prince Charles Tests Positive for Coronavirus

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Breaking News - Prince Charles has tested positive for Coronavirus. Camilla does not have the virus. They are self-isolating in their home in Scotland.

I just listened to some idiots arguing that Prince Charles should not have been tested, as tests are in short supply and they should be going to front line NHS staff.
While that argument may hold water if it was a 'celebrity' from Love Island being tested, it shows an incredible ignorance.
The man is the heir to the throne, 72 years old, and has a personal weath over £20 million (heir to £300 million). He is entitled to a test, and can afford to get tested privately.

Haters gonna hate.I'd be surprised if Jeremy Corbyn doesn't have something to say about this.
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  #5145  
Old 25.03.2020, 18:18
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Re: Coronavirus

Another thing that gets wrongly reported in the press are the daily deaths in Italy due to the corona virus

If you watch this press conference from the italian Civil protection, they clarify that the way the count a corona related death is if the person was positive of the virus at the time of death

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0M4k...youtu.be&t=210

Which means that people that tested positive but died from terminal diseases, car crashes etc would have been added to the daily number of corona death just because they were positive of the virus, but they didn't really die from corona

In reality, only 12% of the numbers communicated as corona victims have died directly from corona complications

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-h...ts-died-italy/

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The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.
So Italy's number have been...pumped. In reality the numbers are 12% of those reported
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  #5146  
Old 25.03.2020, 18:31
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Re: Coronavirus

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In Italy 50-75% of the tested positive are not showing any signs, they are only spreading the virus
Phew, well that's a relief.
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  #5147  
Old 25.03.2020, 18:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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An alternative view, but not conclusive

Malaria Drug Chloroquine No Better Than Regular Coronavirus Care, Study Finds
Czech news reported that that medicine reduces the spread, but directly doesn't heal a patient. Which is, imho, still better than Vit C and paracethamol, obviously.

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I've followed all of the government press briefings in the USA and UK where the experts calmly and methodically walked through their scientific reasoning and overall assessment. All of it was easy-to-follow and allowed me to reach my own conclusions. We also have the benefit of snapshots in time gathered at the epicentre in Wuhan and Italy to see what worse case looks like.

Finally you just have to look at the way Trump is enacting these policies through clenched teeth to know that he really has no choice; A man who a few weeks ago was calling it a Dem Hoax.
He wasn't the only one who didn't believe how serious the coronavirus threat was.

Last edited by MusicChick; 25.03.2020 at 19:19.
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  #5148  
Old 25.03.2020, 18:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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Many people these days suddenly realise that they are married.With kids.

you too?
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  #5149  
Old 25.03.2020, 18:48
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Re: Coronavirus

Some good corona side effects for the single EF members: Pornhub is free now.

I got this from 20min.ch (oh my God, sound even worse than "a friend told me" but it's really really true).
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  #5150  
Old 25.03.2020, 19:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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I gave my argument, my opinion, I backed everything with facts, not opinions, not fake news, but facts, numbers, scientific reports

What did you give to prove me wrong?
You provided opinions (in the part I replied to), not facts. Whether he's head doc or not doesn't change that. His opinion may be (probably is) better founded than yours or mine but that's all, it's still nothing more than an opinion.

Until we have enough hard facts, aka test results of the population rather than a certain group (those showing severe symptoms) there's no base to draw solid conclusions from. The test for virus RNA is done on patients who are probably positive as they show severe symptoms, but not on people with medium or light symptoms, of who have no symptoms at all. We also need high test volumes using a 2nd one which tests for antibodies in the individual's blood, this shows who has been infected in the past.

The questionnaire for #2 will show how many infectees show no symptoms. And the results from mass-tests with #1, compared to hospital admissions, will show how many of the currently active infections turn severe, critical, or even lethal. Until those results, aka solid facts, are out we can only guess. Educated guesses of course and they may well be at least roughly right, but it's always better to measure and know than to extrapolate and guess.

I thought test #2 isn't available yet in large numbers but the UK appears to just have bought 4mln kits or so of a test that tests for antibodies (link a bit up in this thread). However I didn't see any delivery date(s) mentioned, or when they become available in large numbers. And apparently it's largely untested as testing for correct positives without false positives seems to be the first step the UK will do.
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  #5151  
Old 25.03.2020, 19:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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Your risk as a group. Your individual risk will vary based on your individual factors. As it will for every age group.
Your individual risk will also vary based on the behaviour of every other person you encounter, and upon the behaviour of every other person they've encountered before that. Likewise, the individual risk of every other person you encounter, and of every other person that they then go on to encounter, will be influenced by your behaviour.

The lack of understanding of this central point (the claim that it doesn't affect me because I'm not in a risk group, OR, it doesn't affect that other person I'm dealing with they aren't in a risk group) by some people (not by you, ennui!) seems to me the scarily dangerous part.

https://static.dezeen.com/uploads/20...1704_col_1.gif
Explains the effects of social distancing in reducing the spread

Last edited by doropfiz; 25.03.2020 at 19:57.
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  #5152  
Old 25.03.2020, 19:43
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Re: Coronavirus

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I gave my argument, my opinion, I backed everything with facts, not opinions, not fake news, but facts, numbers, scientific reports

What did you give to prove me wrong?
I gave up on science many decades ago
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  #5153  
Old 25.03.2020, 19:48
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Re: Coronavirus

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Some good corona side effects for the single EF members: Pornhub is free now.

I got this from 20min.ch (oh my God, sound even worse than "a friend told me" but it's really really true).

pornhub is free and latex is prioritized for medical protective equipment, at least some people will exercise during the quarantine .
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  #5154  
Old 25.03.2020, 20:07
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Re: Coronavirus

For Christ’s sake, what is the point of constantly moving this thread from one category to another and back again and again? Absurd!
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  #5155  
Old 25.03.2020, 20:13
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Re: Coronavirus

In more serious news today, we have the first human to lizard transmission of the virus
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  #5156  
Old 25.03.2020, 20:16
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Re: Coronavirus

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For Christ’s sake, what is the point of constantly moving this thread from one category to another and back again and again? Absurd!
You still know where to find it, do you?

Yes, can happen when you merge threads. Apologies if this FWP annoys you so much.
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  #5157  
Old 25.03.2020, 20:44
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Re: Coronavirus

Forgive me if it's already been mentioned here recently (so many posts, I can't keep up with everything), but have there been any more restrictions announced in the past few days? I've been busy sewing masks and also trying to avoid the news more because it just causes me too much anxiety.

I received an email today from the US embassy here, and it said something that tells me that more strict restrictions have been enforced recently, but I'm not sure. Specifically, can people now be fined if they just go out for a walk, away from other people, just to get some exercise and fresh air?
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  #5158  
Old 25.03.2020, 20:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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Another thing that gets wrongly reported in the press are the daily deaths in Italy due to the corona virus

If you watch this press conference from the italian Civil protection, they clarify that the way the count a corona related death is if the person was positive of the virus at the time of death

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0M4k...youtu.be&t=210

Which means that people that tested positive but died from terminal diseases, car crashes etc would have been added to the daily number of corona death just because they were positive of the virus, but they didn't really die from corona

In reality, only 12% of the numbers communicated as corona victims have died directly from corona complications

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-h...ts-died-italy/

Your link does not mention that people that tested positive but died from car crashes

So Italy's number have been...pumped. In reality the numbers are 12% of those reported
But that is not new? We already knew that virus patients with pre-conditions were the most likely to die.

You seemed to have missed the point "This does not mean that Covid-19 did not contribute to a patient's death" presumably without the Covid-19 they would have lived longer?

Your link does not claim that people that tested positive but died from car crashes are recorded as corona victims; an example of journalistic licence?

Anyway, with the lockdown the frequency of car crashes will be much reduced.
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  #5159  
Old 25.03.2020, 21:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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He wasn't the only one who didn't believe how serious the coronavirus threat was.
True, but he was the only one leading a major country of over 300 million people who decided to label the threat as an opposition hoax instead of playing safe and just concentrating on leading his people to safety.
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  #5160  
Old 25.03.2020, 21:11
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Re: Coronavirus

Well, it's a relief to learn that the deaths in Italy have been massively exaggerated. I'll tell my friend and colleague I've been keeping in touch with who lives in Bergamo, and tell him to disbelieve the evidence of his own eyes, and the impact on his own family.

The EF epidemiologists know better.
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