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Old 25.03.2020, 22:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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For Christ’s sake, what is the point of constantly moving this thread from one category to another and back again and again? Absurd!
I never even noticed it had moved.
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  #5162  
Old 25.03.2020, 23:25
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Re: Coronavirus

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Forgive me if it's already been mentioned here recently (so many posts, I can't keep up with everything), but have there been any more restrictions announced in the past few days? I've been busy sewing masks and also trying to avoid the news more because it just causes me too much anxiety.

I received an email today from the US embassy here, and it said something that tells me that more strict restrictions have been enforced recently, but I'm not sure. Specifically, can people now be fined if they just go out for a walk, away from other people, just to get some exercise and fresh air?
Not in the last few days, the only recent thing is that they're closing the borders more fully.
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Old 26.03.2020, 00:24
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Re: Coronavirus

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/n...ctim-d6f63nqd8

"healthy 21-year-old woman killed by coronavirus"

But "normal" flu has killed a healthy 21-year old before (but not the same one obviously):

https://time.com/5099042/influenza-deaths-flu/

Flu Killed a Healthy 21-Year-Old Man. - in 2018...
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Old 26.03.2020, 00:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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More than 43 million quarantined...


As of now, there have been 41 deaths and 38 recoveries out of 1,354 confirmed cases.
(25.1.2020)

Update 2 months later:

2.6 billion on lockdown

21,174 deaths and 113,808 recoveries out of 467,520 confirmed cases.
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  #5165  
Old 26.03.2020, 08:23
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Re: Coronavirus

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Well, it's a relief to learn that the deaths in Italy have been massively exaggerated. I'll tell my friend and colleague I've been keeping in touch with who lives in Bergamo, and tell him to disbelieve the evidence of his own eyes, and the impact on his own family.

The EF epidemiologists know better.
I just watched an interview with the mayor of Bergamo (Sky news) where he said the numbers are grossly under estimated, he said there's not enough testing to make the numbers real.
Only people in hospital who are serious are being tested, those at home who call the doctor are being to stay home until they can't breathe, if they die at home they are not included in the testing or statistics.
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Old 26.03.2020, 10:31
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Re: Coronavirus

Japanese National Institute of Infectious diseases has published a field briefing regarding the cruise ship Diamond Princess, which had very high average age due to it's passengers, 48% of the tested positive cases showed no symptoms at all.

https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/2019-...-dp-fe-01.html

So even among the most vulnerable group they have pretty good chances of having the virus and have no idea about it
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Old 26.03.2020, 10:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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Japanese National Institute of Infectious diseases has published a field briefing regarding the cruise ship Diamond Princess, which had very high average age due to it's passengers, 48% of the tested positive cases showed no symptoms at all.

https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/2019-...-dp-fe-01.html

So even among the most vulnerable group they have pretty good chances of having the virus and have no idea about it
That study had the important caveat "Information on development of symptoms after disembarkation of asymptomatic confirmed cases is not currently available."

A more recent study about that cruise ship, brings that number down to around 17 % from that ship, as was posted in this thread some days ago.

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/con....25.10.2000180
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  #5168  
Old 26.03.2020, 10:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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That study had the important caveat "Information on development of symptoms after disembarkation of asymptomatic confirmed cases is not currently available."

A more recent study about that cruise ship, brings that number down to around 17 % from that ship, as was posted in this thread some days ago.

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/con....25.10.2000180
That is just an estimate,

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In this study, we conducted statistical modelling analyses on publicly available data to elucidate the asymptomatic proportion, along with the time of infection among the COVID-19 cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

Our estimated asymptomatic proportion is at 17.9% (95%CrI: 15.5–20.2%), which overlaps with a recently derived estimate of 33.3% (95% confidence interval: 8.3–58.3%) from data of Japanese citizens evacuated from Wuhan
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Old 26.03.2020, 11:03
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Re: Coronavirus

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That is just an estimate,
A peer-reviewed estimate based data more recent then the paper you cited.
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Old 26.03.2020, 11:07
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Re: Coronavirus

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That is just an estimate,
Another thing is, I don't think that a sample of wealthy pensioners from all over will give you a realistic view into what would happen, in general population over certain age. Math model genius or not.
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  #5171  
Old 26.03.2020, 11:15
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Re: Coronavirus

The 48% isn't far away from a similar study done in Italy by immunologist on a 3000 people test. These are real numbers, not estimates

50-75% of corona positive show no symptoms

Another estimate:

Oxford model study says already half of Britain is infected
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Old 26.03.2020, 11:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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The 48% isn't far away from a similar study done in Italy by immunologist on a 3000 people test. These are real numbers, not estimates

50-75% of corona positive show no symptoms

Another estimate:

Oxford model study says already half of Britain is infected
I don't really want to have to review every article thats posted here, since I'm already doing that on other topics this morning!

But three comments, because this is all interesting to learn and debate.

#Article 1, I can't for the life of me find that study or the details from that study in Italy anywhere, so I cannot comment on it.

#Article 2, makes #1 a huge claim but more importantly, has not yet been published or peer reviewed. Lets see if it survives any scrutiny.

#3 There is a recent paper published that examined the rate of false positives in the asymptomatic tests,

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32133832

They suggest that up to >50% of all the positive asymptomatic individuals, are actually negative. I have seen similar claims in regard to false positives with the American CDC tests and other tests, but no numbers were estimated or reported.
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Old 26.03.2020, 11:51
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Re: Coronavirus

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They suggest that up to >50% of all the positive asymptomatic individuals, are actually negative. I have seen similar claims in regard to false positives with the American CDC tests and other tests, but no numbers were estimated or reported.
Could it be that, some or most of those false negatives were actually positive on the first test, had no symptoms and actually recovered for the second test?
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Old 26.03.2020, 11:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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Could it be that, some or most of those false negatives were actually positive on the first test, had no symptoms and actually recovered for the second test?
I am not sure; I have not looked into the results or the testing protocol. I would also suspect that the testing protocol is not universal across all countries. My background is a different branch of hard sciences hah.
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Old 26.03.2020, 12:02
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Re: Coronavirus

I come to this thread to get updates on CoVid situation in CH and latest developments.

Last 2 days this thread feels like a debating room mixed with a ping-pong game and its taking a lot of effort to sift through to get relevant updates. I tolerated but there does not seem to be an end in sight. Can we please cease and desist. Looking at you V__. You have made your point. Thanks.

Last edited by DUTCH; 26.03.2020 at 12:47. Reason: .
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  #5176  
Old 26.03.2020, 12:08
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Re: Coronavirus

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Japanese National Institute of Infectious diseases has published a field briefing regarding the cruise ship Diamond Princess, which had very high average age due to it's passengers, 48% of the tested positive cases showed no symptoms at all.

https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/2019-...-dp-fe-01.html

So even among the most vulnerable group they have pretty good chances of having the virus and have no idea about it

Interesting numbers thanks!


What about:

- number of death on the Diamond Princess
- average number of death on a typical cruise during "flue season"
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Old 26.03.2020, 12:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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I come to this thread to get updates on CoVid situation in CH and latest developments.

Last 2 days this thread feels like a debating room mixed with a ping-pong game and its taking a lot of effort to sift through to get relevant updates. I tolerated but there does seem to be an end in sight. Can we please cease and desist. Looking at you V__. You have made your point. Thanks.
I'm not trying to make a point really. I like to know what really is happening at the moment and it's really difficult because most media aren't interested in calming the situation down but they are increasing their dark scenarios all along.

In a river of doom and gloom articles, end of the world news at the moment, we are skipping or we don't want to read some logical explanations and simple empirical proofs that not everything is so dark. To some extent the same has been happening over the years without people noticing and getting on with their lives. Just because it has a new name doesn't mean that we need to panicking 24/7

Former german minister also think society should get back with their life because risk is very concentrated,
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Old 26.03.2020, 12:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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I come to this thread to get updates on CoVid situation in CH and latest developments.

Last 2 days this thread feels like a debating room mixed with a ping-pong game and its taking a lot of effort to sift through to get relevant updates. I tolerated but there does seem to be an end in sight. Can we please cease and desist. Looking at you V__. You have made your point. Thanks.
This thread has been dead for a couple of weeks. The few that remain I assume are just a bunch of old people shouting at the wall. Most of us armchair epidemiologists lost our attention span and are now searching for the next topic to proclaim our area of expertise.
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Old 26.03.2020, 12:39
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Re: Coronavirus

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This thread has been dead for a couple of weeks. The few that remain I assume are just a bunch of old people shouting at the wall. Most of us armchair epidemiologists lost our attention span and are now searching for the next topic to proclaim our area of expertise.
I agree with you. Life goes on, there are people out there with real problems. In Olten for instance, a fight ensued between a T-Rex and a Sith.
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  #5180  
Old 26.03.2020, 12:42
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Re: Coronavirus

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This thread has been dead for a couple of weeks. The few that remain I assume are just a bunch of old people shouting at the wall. Most of us armchair epidemiologists lost our attention span and are now searching for the next topic to proclaim our area of expertise.
As a millenial, I'm quite pleased that someone compliments my attention span, thanks
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