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Old 26.03.2020, 22:38
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Re: Coronavirus

It is simply impossible to know of every death if it is from Covid-19 or not, take a 55 year old guy, bit overweighted, not the best condition. Gets the disease, gets a long problem. And ends up having a heart-attack. Even if we would do an Autopsy and find a pre-condition with the heart, who is to say if he could not have lived another year and that the stress of Covid-19 on the body was the last drop needed to trigger the attack or if is purely coincidental that he had an attack at that moment, heck he could have died of Covid-19 3 days after the attack. Simply impossible. Al we can do in the end if we have a final count is to make a properly educated guess on how many we missed dying due to the disease and how many died while having the disease but not due to the disease.

The amount of people needing medical care however reveals that something really serious is going on atm.
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Old 26.03.2020, 22:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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The amount of people needing medical care however reveals that something really serious is going on atm.
I agree, and this is why I think comparisons with an average flu season aren't reasonable. This is nowhere near over and it is not going to stop at 22k (actually now 23k) deaths.

When I looked before dinner, the total infected on worldometers was just under 500k. With numbers coming in for the day that's jumped to 524k. The USA has now overtaken China in total cases according to the same site.

I also can't recall an average flu season where people were dying at such a rate that the military had to haul bodies in giant convoys and stack them in ice rinks because there's no more room at the morgue.
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  #5283  
Old 26.03.2020, 23:07
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Re: Coronavirus

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There are sadly currently over 23,000 deaths so this study raises questions like how random was the selection, which countries were involved, how good was the base data, is the sample size statistically significant.
His sample was the cruise ship. It was an isolated sample of people. The size is small, but an advantage might the isolation. I think he was making a point about the need for data rather than providing a point estimate of death rate.

The with or from question is interesting to me. The best example I know is a death from/with cancer. Say that the cause of death is organ failure, but that organ failure is more than likely brought about by the presence of cancer.

How is a death from COVID-19 characterized versus a death with? Heart failure? Organ failure from the cytokine storm (an immune response), whatever else you can die from? If the virus were not present, would death have occurred?

Lots of stuff we don‘t know.
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Old 26.03.2020, 23:08
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I agree, and this is why I think comparisons with an average flu season aren't reasonable. This is nowhere near over and it is not going to stop at 22k (actually now 23k) deaths.

When I looked before dinner, the total infected on worldometers was just under 500k. With numbers coming in for the day that's jumped to 524k. The USA has now overtaken China in total cases according to the same site.

I also can't recall an average flu season where people were dying at such a rate that the military had to haul bodies in giant convoys and stack them in ice rinks because there's no more room at the morgue.
Yup, and growth in confirmed cases is only limited by amount of tests that can be done. If more widely testing becomes available the numbers will shoot up. And where it took as till the 6th of March to get the first 100K, and still 12 days after that to reach 200K it now took us 2 days to add another 100K, imagine the numbers if testing becomes widely available.

Last edited by EdwinNL; 26.03.2020 at 23:25.
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Old 26.03.2020, 23:23
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His sample was the cruise ship. It was an isolated sample of people. The size is small, but an advantage might the isolation. I think he was making a point about the need for data rather than providing a point estimate of death rate.
Still he bases his numbers and further calculations on the 7 deaths from the ship. However there are now 10 people dead from that ship and still 105 active cases of which 15 in critical condition, so if nobody experiences a fall-back or goes into critical anymore the ultimate number wil be a minimum of 10 and a maximum of 25, yet he first applies a could be 5 times more or less and nowhere he explains where this number 5 comes from, he just does it, bringing his max to 0.625 and then he writes, well people could still die so let's correct for that and other issues and raise the max of 0.625 to 1, well it only takes one more death out of the 15 critical people and we already reached the max of that correction. Also his start of the calculation, if he did the math for the ages, why not show it to us so we can review it.

I find the article as a whole incredible sloppy, the start where he says that we need more data is nice, and the end is also nice, but the middle part is pure rubbish imho.
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Old 26.03.2020, 23:33
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Re: Coronavirus

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I find the article as a whole incredible sloppy, the start where he says that we need more data is nice, and the end is also nice, but the middle part is pure rubbish imho.
So on one hand, the work is questionable. On the other hand it has people thinking, and discussing, which I find rather useful. He did the calculations a while ago, anyway - I wonder if he‘d do the same thing now.

Data will have to wait though....the best way to care for people and keep health workers safe is most important.

At any rate, I’ve been reading lots of stuff from the US and while the demographics are different, the conclusion is pretty much the same. Stay home and don‘t waste personal protective equipment.
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Old 26.03.2020, 23:39
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Re: Coronavirus

Amongst all the doom & gloom this snapshot of the ‘flashmob’ in the UK this evening to thank the tireless efforts of the NHS workers restores one’s faith in humanity and gave us goosebumps!

https://twitter.com/AshleyMoorman/st...905030145?s=20
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  #5288  
Old 26.03.2020, 23:39
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yup, and growth in confirmed cases is only limited by amount of tests that can be done. If more widely testing becomes available the numbers will shoot up. And where it took as till the 6th of March to get the first 100K, and still 12 days after that to reach 200K it now took us 3 days to add another 100K, imagine the numbers if testing becomes widely available.
Interesting as the more people tested, the percentage of those tested and whom die probably decreases given current stats. So if tests increase, mortality rates given the current curve will decrease? It lends credence to a prevailing view that there are many who have this but are asymptomatic and this virus may need to run its course. Perhaps many have or carry this virus, and the mortality percentages are off given the limited number of tests performed - country specific.

That said, containment/lockdown helps hospitals deal with the contagion so they are not overwhelmed and have the staff and equipment on hand for those in need of care. I get that!

What I don't get is why I see so many parents with groups of kids (around the same age) on scooters and outings. I know it is tough to quarantine kids but why involve their friends? Frustrating to see some people not getting the message. Self isolating/distance gives the government time to procure staff/provisions to deal with a spike regarding the virus...
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Old 26.03.2020, 23:48
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Re: Coronavirus

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Interesting as the more people tested, the percentage of those tested and whom die probably decreases given current stats. So if tests increase, mortality rates given the current curve will decrease? It lends credence to a prevailing view that there are many who have this but are asymptomatic and this virus may need to run its course. Perhaps many have or carry this virus, and the mortality figures are off given the limited number of tests performed - country specific.
Almost from the beginning we knew that many were having the disease but never have been tested, many governments (Switzerland included) for example tell you to stay home if you have a fever/cough and only to call if it is so bad you feel you need medical help. And since we don't know how big this group is we should speak of "mortality rate of confirmed cases" and not of mortality rate of the disease. Maybe this disease is partly so bad since it might be much more successful in spreading than the flu, meaning where a flu takes several months and is pretty steady this disease has the ability so do so much shit in weeks.
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Old 26.03.2020, 23:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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Interesting as the more people tested, the percentage of those tested and whom die probably decreases given current stats. So if tests increase, mortality rates given the current curve will decrease? It lends credence to a prevailing view that there are many who have this but are asymptomatic and this virus may need to run its course. Perhaps many have or carry this virus, and the mortality figures are off given the limited number of tests performed - country specific.

That said, containment/lockdown helps hospitals deal with the contagion so they are not overwhelmed and have the staff and equipment on hand for those in need of care. I get that!

What I don't get is why I see so many parents with groups of kids (around the same age) on scooters and outings. I know it is tough to quarantine kids but why involve their friends? Frustrating to see some people not getting the message. Self isolating/distance gives the government time to procure staff/provisions to deal with a spike regarding the virus...
That‘s correct. The assumption is that widespread testing, when possible will capture a lot of asymptomatic carriers. The other thing that would be nice to have is contact tracing - South Korea did that and it helped their containment efforts.

Self isolating reduces risk for health care workers, improves care for the sick in resource full environments and is much safer for everyone involved. I worry a lot about health care folks having the resources and energy to do their jobs.

I don‘t get the kids thing either. Today, I saw about 5 kids and 3 women get into a car. what was that about?
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Old 26.03.2020, 23:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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Almost from the beginning we knew that many were having the disease but never have been tested, many governments (Switzerland included) for example tell you to stay home if you have a fever/cough and only to call if it is so bad you feel you need medical help. And since we don't know how big this group is we should speak of "mortality rate of confirmed cases" and not of mortality rate of the disease. Maybe this disease is partly so bad since it might be much more successful in spreading than the flu, meaning where a flu takes several months and is pretty steady this disease has the ability so do so much shit in weeks.
Completely agree! Hence my initial post 200 plus pages ago... A member groaned at me when I posted but on January 24th when I read the transmission had reached the US as well as other parts of Asia - alarm bells went off as to how quickly the transmission occurred. What rhymes with "highly infectious"?
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Old 27.03.2020, 00:05
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Re: Coronavirus

I think it‘s been fairly clear from the start that covid-19 was definitely more infectious than seasonal influenza. Not sure they know exactly why. If asymptomatic people can transmit the virus, that‘s likely a big reason.
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Old 27.03.2020, 00:11
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I think it‘s been fairly clear from the start that covid-19 was definitely more infectious than seasonal influenza. Not sure they know exactly why. If asymptomatic people can transmit the virus, that‘s likely a big reason.
Longer incubation time, and infectious before symptoms.

The flu only spreads so great since we for some reason stopped caring about it. Have a slight fever and some cough.. who cares.. of to work it is, but first lets bring the kids to daycare in a stuffed tram to spread the joy.

I really hope that after this we can change our behaviour a little, I always loved it how in some countries it is normal that if you have a cold or flu that you wear a mouth mask to protect others, and that whole shacking hands I always have found despicable or that kissing on the cheek. It is almost as if we want to be certain that if we have a disease that everybody gets it.
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Old 27.03.2020, 00:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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Longer incubation time, and infectious before symptoms.

The flu only spreads so great since we for some reason stopped caring about it. Have a slight fever and some cough.. who cares.. of to work it is, but first lets bring the kids to daycare in a stuffed tram to spread the joy.

I really hope that after this we can change our behaviour a little, I always loved it how in some countries it is normal that if you have a cold or flu that you wear a mouth mask to protect others, and that whole shacking hands I always have found despicable or that kissing on the cheek. It is almost as if we want to be certain that if we have a disease that everybody gets it.
Right— incubation.

Definitely not sure about the utility of the mask, but hand washing, hand shaking and kissing could be modified. And also this propensity to work when you‘re sick. Stay the F. At home. Employers need to make this possible too.
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Old 27.03.2020, 00:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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People under 50 with no preexisting conditions are currently intubated in many ICUs around the country. The fact you are less likely to die of COVID if you are young and healthy doesn't mean there's no risk at all of it happening.
Millennials

Probably looking for a sympathy pic on Instagram
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Old 27.03.2020, 00:24
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Right— incubation.

Definitely not sure about the utility of the mask, but hand washing, hand shaking and kissing could be modified. And also this propensity to work when you‘re sick. Stay the F. At home. Employers need to make this possible too.
Oh the mask does not protect fully, no doubt. But it protects some and it avoids that your sneeze launches an 8 meters long beam of droplets through a full tram.
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Old 27.03.2020, 00:32
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Re: Coronavirus

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Right— incubation.

Definitely not sure about the utility of the mask, but hand washing, hand shaking and kissing could be modified. And also this propensity to work when you‘re sick. Stay the F. At home. Employers need to make this possible too.
That's considered a part of the culture here. Should it really be changed because of some foreign virus?
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Old 27.03.2020, 00:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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As an example, I have a pre-existing condition with pneumonia which is being treated and the medical outlook is currently OK or the expectation is I will only survive a month or two. Then I catch COV-19 and die within some weeks, so, as I posted, where do we draw the line.
Last paragraph of this earlier post might help to clarify... https://www.englishforum.ch/family-m...ml#post3155009
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Old 27.03.2020, 00:45
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That's considered a part of the culture here. Should it really be changed because of some foreign virus?
As long as people think spreading the seasonal flu each year is a national sport, and washing hands is for a lot of people something out of the movies I'd say:

YES.

And I don't care for it being culture, once it was culture to burn people of whom we thought they spoke out curses on the market square.
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Old 27.03.2020, 09:08
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Bleiben Sie jetzt zuhause

Hi all,

Is this 'Bleiben Sie jetzt zuhause' a recommendation or an obligation? It is not clear to me the enforcement action of it.

May police stop you on the street and fine you if you are simply having a stroll?
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