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Old 27.03.2020, 17:51
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Re: Coronavirus

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The numbers of new infections are dropping steadily. Another week or 2 and its back to work!
You realize you're destroying the bubble of the masochistic worry-ers?
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  #5382  
Old 27.03.2020, 17:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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You realize you're destroying the bubble of the masochistic worry-ers?
About time they got back to work. I have had enough of these joggers the whole day long!! Do they have anything else in life

Last edited by omtatsat; 27.03.2020 at 18:11.
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  #5383  
Old 27.03.2020, 18:24
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Re: Coronavirus

This is a news article from Spain from 2018 in the small section of course

800.000 cases, 52.000 hospitalized and 15.000 dead in 2017/2018

Luckily we were busy living our lives and we had no time to panic

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.red...0-muertos-5427

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  #5384  
Old 27.03.2020, 18:25
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Re: Coronavirus

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The numbers of new infections are dropping steadily. Another week or 2 and its back to work!

Back to 2 days of home office a week. A little revolution has started among my colleagues
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  #5385  
Old 27.03.2020, 18:34
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Re: Coronavirus

Back to full time work at the office most likely as the ..... CEO insists that 50 percent of the teams should be in the office. And as 2 have kids....

And we all have jobs where we easily can work from home..
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Old 27.03.2020, 18:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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This is a news article from Spain from 2018 in the small section of course

800.000 cases, 52.000 hospitalized and 15.000 dead in 2017/2018

Luckily we were busy living our lives and we had no time to panic

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.red...0-muertos-5427


Would you mind adding the following info as well:
- duration of the flue season in Spain for 2017/2018
- calculate average number of death per day
- compare it with the current daily rate in Spain
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  #5387  
Old 27.03.2020, 18:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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As I've said before you need to look at the date the test was taken. Many if those are from 2 days ago .

Also better to look at a 3 or 4 day moving average to see the trend.
I've been using a log fit and checking the time to double and the time to go up by a factor of 10.
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  #5388  
Old 27.03.2020, 19:27
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Re: Coronavirus

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Would you mind adding the following info as well:
- duration of the flue season in Spain for 2017/2018
- calculate average number of death per day
- compare it with the current daily rate in Spain
Oh, that's sounds fun. I'll do it!

The duration was 24 weeks, according to this which is 168 days.
So that's 4762 cases a day, 300 hospitalisations a day, and 90 deaths per day.

Current for covid-19 (from here) is duration 20 days (First case 06.03.2020).
Total cases is 57786, deaths 4365. (Hospitalisations, don't know).
But that's 2889 cases a day, and 232 deaths per day.

So, covid-19 vs 'flu season 2017-2018 (which was considered a severe season) is about 2.5x as lethal.
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  #5389  
Old 27.03.2020, 19:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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Would you mind adding the following info as well:
- duration of the flue season in Spain for 2017/2018
- calculate average number of death per day
- compare it with the current daily rate in Spain
So you want to see the type of graph and that will determine if you should feel safe or not?

If there is 1 plane crash in 1 year, do you want to know what day it happened or you want to know the overall safety for that year to make an assumption if it is safe to fly in general or you will get stuck on this 1 day when there was a crash?
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  #5390  
Old 27.03.2020, 19:42
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Re: Coronavirus

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IDK what they are waiting for to impose a stricter quarantine. Here in Geneva we have one of the worst situations and still too many people on the streets (from what I see from my window as I'm only going to the Coop once a week).
Which goes to prove again that Geneva isn't really Swiss, but just happens to be within its borders.
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  #5391  
Old 27.03.2020, 19:49
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Re: Coronavirus

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Which goes to prove again that Geneva isn't really Swiss, but just happens to be within its borders.
But Geneva the super-cosmopolitan and centre of various world organisations, a nice city during normal times is really Swiss when it behaves, no?

If it doesn't - entirely as expected -, it can't be Swiss, of course. I'd be curious how some of you define this Swissness.
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Old 27.03.2020, 19:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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But Geneva the super-cosmopolitan and centre of various world organisations, a nice city during normal times is really Swiss when it behaves, no?

If it doesn't - entirely as expected -, it can't be Swiss, of course. I'd be curious how some of you define this Swissness.
You defined it in your own post.... follow the rules... behave.....
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  #5393  
Old 27.03.2020, 19:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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You defined it in your own post.... follow the rules... behave.....
Switzerland is more diverse than that....you must know it....and I think....you have a very pink image....of Switzerland.
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Old 27.03.2020, 19:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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Switzerland is more diverse than that....you must know it....and I think....you have a very pink image....of Switzerland.
Let's reserve that discussion for another thread.
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  #5395  
Old 27.03.2020, 20:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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So you want to see the type of graph and that will determine if you should feel safe or not?

If there is 1 plane crash in 1 year, do you want to know what day it happened or you want to know the overall safety for that year to make an assumption if it is safe to fly in general or you will get stuck on this 1 day when there was a crash?

Why you do not provide the info I asked for?
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Old 27.03.2020, 20:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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Oh, that's sounds fun. I'll do it!

The duration was 24 weeks, according to this which is 168 days.
So that's 4762 cases a day, 300 hospitalisations a day, and 90 deaths per day.

Current for covid-19 (from here) is duration 20 days (First case 06.03.2020).
Total cases is 57786, deaths 4365. (Hospitalisations, don't know).
But that's 2889 cases a day, and 232 deaths per day.

So, covid-19 vs 'flu season 2017-2018 (which was considered a severe season) is about 2.5x as lethal.
Or you could argue that a death rate for COVID-19 of 4,365 from 57,786 cases (so far), or 7.6%, is 4x worse than the 1.9% for the bad 'flu season. And infections are still on the rise, and deaths obviously lag well behind new infections.

Or maybe V__ could just take a stroll through the totally-nothing-to-worry-about IC ward of his/her local hospital and see how that ends up.
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Old 27.03.2020, 20:23
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Re: Coronavirus

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Oh, that's sounds fun. I'll do it!

The duration was 24 weeks, according to this which is 168 days.
So that's 4762 cases a day, 300 hospitalisations a day, and 90 deaths per day.

Current for covid-19 (from here) is duration 20 days (First case 06.03.2020).
Total cases is 57786, deaths 4365. (Hospitalisations, don't know).
But that's 2889 cases a day, and 232 deaths per day.

So, covid-19 vs 'flu season 2017-2018 (which was considered a severe season) is about 2.5x as lethal.

Thanks! I'm still "young" in the forum and I cannot give you reputation.
And now the bonus question: given the current trend, if we'll do the same calculation tomorrow, what will be the outcome: better / worse? :-(
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Old 27.03.2020, 20:27
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Re: Coronavirus

IMHO this confinement will last until they find a vaccination. If we just go back to work like if nothing happened as soon ad the numbers go down, in a couple of weeks we will be in the same situation. We must remain until there is a cure.
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Old 27.03.2020, 20:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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Amount of maximum performed tests is stable over the last days, so confirmed cases should not show a lot of change due to testing limitations.
I gave up watching new cases, and just follow the number deaths and the trend... as that really is true indicator of how much covid is in the community, knowing there is a big of lag with it. Hopefully we start to see a 2-3day average # daily deaths level out towards the end of next week.

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IMHO this confinement will last until they find a vaccination. If we just go back to work like if nothing happened as soon ad the numbers go down, in a couple of weeks we will be in the same situation. We must remain until there is a cure.
I doubt it. Unless someone nails a vaccine very quickly. I think there is only 1 vaccine in a stage 1 trial - the rest are still pre clinical... I think the earliest read outs of some of the small trials being done are 2-3 months away at the VERY earliest. Then manufacturing has to be scaled. There are some other anti-virals that are being studied for treatment, that are already developed, so if they work, maybe that helps treat those infected.

Economies around the world can't wait for a vaccine... i think we will be stuck indoors till sometime in May. But after that, companies are going to go bankrupt, employment rates rocket (They already are in the US). European labour policies mean companies have to keep paying employees even though the business is making a lot less $$ or even closed (I believe that is correct) - its not sustainable for a long period. I am no economist, but i cant see how countries & economies will last more then a 2-3 months with near lockdowns so they will need to adjust.

Last edited by xDiavel; 27.03.2020 at 20:38. Reason: more to say
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  #5400  
Old 27.03.2020, 20:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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Health secretary Matt Hancock also tests positive. Literally the two most important people in government at this time.
Followed by the future king; and the chief medical officer is self-isolating with symptoms.

In my view, this is an unacceptable national security failure.
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