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Old 27.03.2020, 19:38
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Re: Coronavirus

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Thanks! I'm still "young" in the forum and I cannot give you reputation.
That's ok. It's the thought that counts.
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And now the bonus question: given the current trend, if we'll do the same calculation tomorrow, what will be the outcome: better / worse? :-(
Maybe in a week from now. Weekend figures tends to be delayed.
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Old 27.03.2020, 19:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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Oh, that's sounds fun. I'll do it!

The duration was 24 weeks, according to this which is 168 days.
So that's 4762 cases a day, 300 hospitalisations a day, and 90 deaths per day
¨

Latest figures
Total cases 64059, 4934 deaths (21 days).
3050 cases a day, 234 deaths per day.
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Old 27.03.2020, 19:55
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Re: Coronavirus

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Followed by the future king; and the chief medical officer is self-isolating with symptoms.

In my view, this is an unacceptable national security failure.
Indeed...they should be on the golf course instead.
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Old 27.03.2020, 19:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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Oh, that's sounds fun. I'll do it!

The duration was 24 weeks, according to this which is 168 days.
So that's 4762 cases a day, 300 hospitalisations a day, and 90 deaths per day.

Current for covid-19 (from here) is duration 20 days (First case 06.03.2020).
Total cases is 57786, deaths 4365. (Hospitalisations, don't know).
But that's 2889 cases a day, and 232 deaths per day.

So, covid-19 vs 'flu season 2017-2018 (which was considered a severe season) is about 2.5x as lethal.
Not a valid calculation/comparison for CV because it started with really small numbers and has been exploding. so maybe instead of the 20 days take only the last few days. even then it's not going to be meaningful as the situation is changing.

Besides, the key issue with CV is its ability to quickly overwhelm the health system and we don't even know how bad it can get in the immediate future...
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Old 27.03.2020, 20:02
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Re: Coronavirus

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IMHO this confinement will last until they find a vaccination. If we just go back to work like if nothing happened as soon ad the numbers go down, in a couple of weeks we will be in the same situation. We must remain until there is a cure.
You do realise there is no guarantee of a cure ever. We will likely have to just get through it with the better equipment and better understanding (both of the epidemiology and of which medicaments are useful) this play for time has given us.

I can quite happily sit at home, but there are many less fortunate people who are having their livelihoods destroyed, and whose children are not being educated.

This is no Marburg Virus. We'll get through it one way or the other. Suggesting we lock up indefinitely is just so clearly not the right way forward.
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Old 27.03.2020, 20:09
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Re: Coronavirus

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IMHO this confinement will last until they find a vaccination. If we just go back to work like if nothing happened as soon ad the numbers go down, in a couple of weeks we will be in the same situation. We must remain until there is a cure.
Should not be too long before we can test much wider so we have an estimate of how much each age-group in the population is infected which also would give us real data on need for hospitals and IC. If we have such data we could "release" groups or restrictions in a way that the hospitals can handle it.
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Old 27.03.2020, 20:25
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Re: Coronavirus

The German Network for Evidence Based Medicine has issued a statement "COVID-19: Where is the evidence?"

Among many other things, they underline how the media is reporting without evidence-based theories, how the fatality rates are overestimated and how the current measures are ineffective but they seem to give results
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Old 27.03.2020, 20:46
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Re: Coronavirus

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Boris Johnson tests positive for COVID-19

Source



He looks knackered.. I wish him a speedy recovery.
So far only mild symptoms of the virus.

Nevertheless I'm feeling sorry for Boris because no matter how many Churchillian style speeches he makes
- he always ends up with egg on his face !!!



This must rank as yet another cringing blooper by Boris as PM alongside - I'd rather be dead in a ditch
than agree another Brexit extension.

No doubt there will be those who will say that the enemy, caught him off guard while his defences
were down but for this to happen days after imploring the country to keep your distance and
wash your hands during his televised daily press briefings, beggars belief. So is Westminster
getting to grips with their own H&S rules on this ?

Boris briefing speech - This enemy can be deadly, wash your hands & Stay at Home

As I'm sorry to say that Boris now finds himself - sleeping with the enemy at Number 10 tonight.

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Surely the time has come for Boris to 'circle the wagons' for a bit of herd immunity ?

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Old 27.03.2020, 21:08
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Re: Coronavirus

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The German Network for Evidence Based Medicine has issued a statement "COVID-19: Where is the evidence?"

Among many other things, they underline how the media is reporting without evidence-based theories, how the fatality rates are overestimated and how the current measures are ineffective but they seem to give results



The new thing about corona is: So far we estimated how many people would most likely be ill and provided the necessary hospital-beds/equipment/medical staff.
Now we check how much hospital-beds/equipment/medical staff we have and try not to provide more patients than treatable.

Last edited by curley; 28.03.2020 at 00:08.
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Old 27.03.2020, 21:16
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Re: Coronavirus

Imagine if Donald Trump got the virus...I doubt he'd be as articulate as Boris.

So the test says I've been infected with the Chinese virus. I've got this cough. It's the worst cough in the world. No one's cough has been as bad as mine. And it's all because of the Chinese. (cough cough). And the Dems (cough cough) and the liberals (cough cough). This cough is bigly. Almost as bigly as my temperature. I'm burning hot. Like the sun. Melania is sadly staying away at this time to self-isolate with my son. What's his name? Just kidding. Brian... Baron.... It's this terrible fever. The worst fever in the world. But I'm going to survive because I'm as healthy as an ox. A strong ox. One that can pull any plough. My doctor examined me and told me so.

So pray for me and pray for the nation that I'll survive. Mike Pence has been praying for me and God listens to him. But he listens to me more. So pray. Bigly. Trump for the win... in 2020.
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Old 27.03.2020, 21:24
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Re: Coronavirus

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The German Network for Evidence Based Medicine has issued a statement "COVID-19: Where is the evidence?"

Among many other things, they underline how the media is reporting without evidence-based theories, how the fatality rates are overestimated and how the current measures are ineffective but they seem to give results
Can someone remind me how you put a troll on 'ignore' please? Thank you. First time I've wanted to do this in 10 years of EF.
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Old 27.03.2020, 21:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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Can someone remind me how you put a troll on 'ignore' please? Thank you. First time I've wanted to do this in 10 years of EF.
Edwin posted instructions a few pages ago....
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Old 27.03.2020, 21:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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he always ends up with egg on his face !!!

No doubt there will be those who will say that the enemy, caught him off guard while his defences were down but for this to happen days after imploring the country to keep your distance and wash your hands during his televised daily press briefings, beggars belief. So is Westminster getting to grips with their own H&S rules on this ?
What's your point exactly? At no time did he say that he was immune to the virus. In fact, he said the exact opposite -- that most of us were very likely to get it. And with a job like his, he's more likely than most to get it. It can take 2 weeks or more to show symptoms.

Trying to portray his infection as some sort of PR gaffe is moronic and tasteless. If anything, it might make a few idiots (no names mentioned) take a bit more notice.
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Old 27.03.2020, 21:38
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Re: Coronavirus

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Can someone remind me how you put a troll on 'ignore' please? Thank you. First time I've wanted to do this in 10 years of EF.
Their conclusion is excellent, and wonderfully balanced:

Overall, there is very little reliable evidence - neither on COVID-19 itself, nor on the effectiveness of the measures currently being taken. But it cannot be ruled out that the COVID-19 pandemic poses a serious threat, and NPIs - despite largely lacking evidence - are the only thing that can be done if you don't want to just watch and hope.

As Sweden has (uniquely) decided to try and just live through it, we will get the data soon enough. My personal, entirely unqualified, view is that the Swedes ar ultimately probably correct but taking a hell of gamble with their citizens lives.
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Old 27.03.2020, 21:39
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Re: Coronavirus


46 doctors dead in Italy. A few days ago there were 26
Ah, right, the air quality...
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Old 27.03.2020, 21:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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46 doctors dead in Italy. A few days ago there were 26
They probably all had preexisting conditions and were 80+ yrs old. That or car accidents happened.
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Old 27.03.2020, 21:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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46 doctors dead in Italy. A few days ago there were 26
Swine flu killed more than coronavirus, and fizzled out without these restrictive measures having not infected the majority of the population.

We have no idea about coronas potential really. Not until we have an idea of the true death rate, which has hitherto only been guessed at. If it really is 1% we are in for a rough, rough time. Hopefully it's much lower. I'd certainly hope for no more than 0.1
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Old 27.03.2020, 22:05
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Re: Coronavirus

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The German Network for Evidence Based Medicine has issued a statement "COVID-19: Where is the evidence?"

Among many other things, they underline how the media is reporting without evidence-based theories, how the fatality rates are overestimated and how the current measures are ineffective but they seem to give results
Did you read this article you quote?

They actually wrote, "Case Fatality Rate" (CFR) is underestimated. A mistake that leads to an underestimation of the CFR ....... CFR would then be between 5 and 15% depending on the country.

and

The raw data is currently communicated in the media.

From the conclusion; non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) are the only thing that can be done if you don't want to just watch and hope. NPIs currently seem sensible.
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Old 27.03.2020, 22:09
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Re: Coronavirus

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Can someone remind me how you put a troll on 'ignore' please? Thank you. First time I've wanted to do this in 10 years of EF.
Users public profile - Users lists - ignore

done.
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Old 27.03.2020, 22:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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Did you read this article you quote?

They actually wrote, "Case Fatality Rate" (CFR) is underestimated. A mistake that leads to an underestimation of the CFR ....... CFR would then be between 5 and 15% depending on the country.

and

The raw data is currently communicated in the media.

From the conclusion; non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) are the only thing that can be done if you don't want to just watch and hope. NPIs currently seem sensible.
Where did you read that?

"There are no reliable figures on the lethality of COVID-19. What is certain is that simply dividing the number of deaths by the number of diseases detected leads to a substantial overestimation of the so-called "Case Fatality Rate" (CFR)."
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