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  #5421  
Old 27.03.2020, 23:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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Swine flu killed more than coronavirus, and fizzled out without these restrictive measures having not infected the majority of the population.

We have no idea about coronas potential really. Not until we have an idea of the true death rate, which has hitherto only been guessed at. If it really is 1% we are in for a rough, rough time. Hopefully it's much lower. I'd certainly hope for no more than 0.1
Swine flu killed 18,036 in a year and a half.

So far coronavirus has killed 26,894 in four months.

Please do feel free to share more imaginary numbers.
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  #5422  
Old 27.03.2020, 23:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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Where did you read that?

"There are no reliable figures on the lethality of COVID-19. What is certain is that simply dividing the number of deaths by the number of diseases detected leads to a substantial overestimation of the so-called "Case Fatality Rate" (CFR)."
True, but if you read to the end of that same paragraph you will see they recommend a better way of calculating CFR which gives "CFR would then be between 5 and 15% depending on the country.".
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  #5423  
Old 27.03.2020, 23:16
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Re: Coronavirus

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Swine flu killed 18,036 in a year and a half.

So far coronavirus has killed 26,894 in four months.

Please do feel free to share more imaginary numbers.
CDC estimates around 300.000 victims from swine flu
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  #5424  
Old 27.03.2020, 23:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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So far coronavirus has killed 26,894 in four months.
Just to point out: most of this CV killing has been done in the last couple of weeks, and growing fast
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  #5425  
Old 27.03.2020, 23:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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True, but if you read to the end of that same paragraph you will see they recommend a better way of calculating CFR which gives "CFR would then be between 5 and 15% depending on the country.".
They note that as part of the mistake from the wrong calculation widely used, not as a concrete number. Already in the beginning they say that 4% is overestimated
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Old 27.03.2020, 23:22
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Re: Coronavirus

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Swine flu killed 18,036 in a year and a half.

So far coronavirus has killed 26,894 in four months.

Please do feel free to share more imaginary numbers.
Wiki says 175,000-500,000 which I did check before posting. It refers to the CDC.

Is there any need to be so rude? Would you be this rude in real life?
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  #5427  
Old 27.03.2020, 23:23
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Re: Coronavirus

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Wiki says 175,000-500,000 which I did check before posting.

Is there any need to be so rude? Would you be this rude in real life?
They are in panic mode, they need to show distress. Corona is coming for us
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  #5428  
Old 27.03.2020, 23:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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Swine flu killed more than coronavirus, and fizzled out without these restrictive measures having not infected the majority of the population.
Numbers for Switzerland: The Swine Flu killed in its first wave 22 people and caused 111 ICU cases, 570 hospital admissions, 13'441 lab confirmed cases, estimated 294'000 doctor visits, estimated 1 - 1.5 million infections.
https://www.rosenfluh.ch/media/gynae...pepandemie.pdf

Two deadly flu seasons in Switzerland were 2014-15 and 2016-17 (In both cases the sucker to blame was A(H3N2) first seen 1968 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-pandemic.html ). Unlike in other countries the 2017-18 season was pretty mild (fatality wise).
coronavirus-gr-d-14.03.04wr_2015-computed_thumbnail.png
coronavirus-gr-d-14.03.04wr_2017-computed_thumbnail.png

The 2020 Weekly Score Card of "Gevatter Tod":
https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/de/home...sursachen.html

The US CDC estimates the first wave Swine Flue deaths in the USA from April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010 in the range of 8'868-18'306.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-pandemic.html
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  #5429  
Old 27.03.2020, 23:32
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Re: Coronavirus

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CDC estimates around 300.000 victims from swine flu
No source as usual!

The World Health Organisation reported 18,036.
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  #5430  
Old 27.03.2020, 23:32
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Re: Coronavirus

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They are in panic mode, they need to show distress. Corona is coming for us
It's bizzare. Multiple people have bitten my head of this issue when normally I say nothing that offends anyone.

I haven't even anywhere stated any fact as gospel. On the contrary I've stated my ignorance multiple times. Given that the experts in Germany say they don't know serious this is, none if us can be sure either. None of you know.
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  #5431  
Old 27.03.2020, 23:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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No source as usual!

The World Health Organisation reported 18,036.
That's evidently diagnosed cases (hence the precision). With low mortality diseases like this, sampling gives a much better number.

For instance, the number of flu cases reported each year are not diagnosed cases, but done by projection.

We can argue all day about what figure is the most accurate, but there was really no need to be so aggressive. But anyway, let's be friends now!
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  #5432  
Old 27.03.2020, 23:35
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Re: Coronavirus

101 years old retired bricklayer in Rimini Italy survives corona virus.

https://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/der-101...t-518800532640
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  #5433  
Old 27.03.2020, 23:36
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Re: Coronavirus

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No source as usual!

The World Health Organisation reported 18,036.
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-persp...-deaths-284000

Working with admittedly sparse data, a research team led by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has estimated the global death toll from the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic at more than 284,000, about 15 times the number of laboratory-confirmed cases.
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  #5434  
Old 27.03.2020, 23:39
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Re: Coronavirus

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Just to point out: most of this CV killing has been done in the last couple of weeks, and growing fast
In the last week:

March 20: 11,386 deaths

March 27: 26,952 deaths
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  #5435  
Old 27.03.2020, 23:39
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Re: Coronavirus

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Wiki says 175,000-500,000 which I did check before posting. It refers to the CDC.

Is there any need to be so rude? Would you be this rude in real life?
Ah, Wiki, the gold standard of reporting.

Now Wikipedia states 18,036.

You see how I give my source for verification.

Your number looks more like Spanish flu deaths?

In real life with no fear of banning I am much ruder......
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Old 27.03.2020, 23:40
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Re: Coronavirus

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101 years old retired bricklayer in Rimini Italy survives corona virus.

https://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/der-101...t-518800532640
What a legend. Probably smokes like a chimney too
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  #5437  
Old 27.03.2020, 23:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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No source as usual!

The World Health Organisation reported 18,036.
Those are lab confirmed, in reality many weren't tested specifically for the disease:

The World Health Organization (WHO) has put the number of deaths from confirmed 2009 H1N1 flu at a minimum of 18,449, but that number is regarded as well below the true total, mainly because many people who die of flu-related causes are not tested for the disease.
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Old 27.03.2020, 23:42
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Re: Coronavirus

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101 years old retired bricklayer in Rimini Italy survives corona virus.

https://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/der-101...t-518800532640

A 16-year-old French schoolgirl with no underlying health problems has become the youngest person in Europe to die of COVID-19.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/27/french...rus-in-europe/
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  #5439  
Old 27.03.2020, 23:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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Ah, Wiki, the gold standard of reporting.

Now Wikipedia states 18,036.

You see how I give my source for verification.

Your number looks more like Spanish flu deaths?

In real life with no fear of banning I am much ruder......
Let's start a wiki editing war!

(Realises is too computer illiterate to win said war and gives in)
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  #5440  
Old 27.03.2020, 23:48
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Re: Coronavirus

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http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-persp...-deaths-284000

Working with admittedly sparse data, a research team led by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has estimated the global death toll from the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic at more than 284,000, about 15 times the number of laboratory-confirmed cases.
So for valid comparisons today, we should compare laboratory-confirmed swine flu deaths with laboratory-confirmed coronavirus deaths.

No doubt at some future time we will be comparing research team estimates of swine flu deaths with research team estimates of coronavirus deaths when these are available.
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