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  #5741  
Old 31.03.2020, 12:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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Reminds me of first world war generals; "send some more troops over the top to their deaths".
That's a comparison that doesn't hold water.
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Even Trump is backing off from this dangerous tactic.

A drop in GDP makes us poorer, which in turn reduces the life expectency for the younger. It's unpalatable, but there it is.

The (old) people we are so desparate to save will be dead of natural causes before the financial fallout has even filtered through.


But still, they can be isolated properly, confined to their homes, and supported/policed and cared for to keep them safe. Keep them indoors.
The rest of us are at a super, super low risk, not a bigly risk, a smally, minutey risk. The smallest risk you've ever seen, a beautiful risk.
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  #5742  
Old 31.03.2020, 12:42
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Re: Coronavirus

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They are hospitalized. Enormous chances that they will be just fine.

In Italy, out of 11000 victims:

2 were in the 0-29 age range
20 in the 30-39

So 22 young victims in 11000.... Probably many more died from stupidity and natural causes since January in this age range rather than corona
...and how many intubated (which was your point)? Younger people survive that much better than older ones so the death figures don't come close to the full story.
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  #5743  
Old 31.03.2020, 12:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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A drop in GDP makes us poorer, which in turn reduces the life expectency for the younger. It's unpalatable, but there it is.

The (old) people we are so desparate to save will be dead of natural causes before the financial fallout has even filtered through.


But still, they can be isolated properly, confined to their homes, and supported/policed and cared for to keep them safe. Keep them indoors.
The rest of us are at a super, super low risk, not a bigly risk, a smally, minutey risk. The smallest risk you've ever seen, a beautiful risk.
Agree. At some point you need to start again without ruining the economy and someone needs to take this hard and complicated decision at the right moment.
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  #5744  
Old 31.03.2020, 13:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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Forecast 3,000 dead in NY, now if there is the same in every one of the 50 States....
Not all states are as densely populated as NY (NYC to be precise).
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Old 31.03.2020, 13:05
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Re: Coronavirus

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Agree. At some point you need to start again without ruining the economy and someone needs to take this hard and complicated decision at the right moment.
Until we have answers as for how immunity works out nobody will make that decision.
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  #5746  
Old 31.03.2020, 13:07
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Re: Coronavirus

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Not all states are as densely populated as NY (NYC to be precise).
True, some will have less, others around 3K and NY will blast way past 3K
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  #5747  
Old 31.03.2020, 13:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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Not all states are as densely populated as NY (NYC to be precise).
A good friend who lived in NY most of his life but moved to Vermont a couple of years back with his family- says 1000s of NY have come up to VT recently, either to live in their holiday home or rent. Just as is happening with large cities in UK, people going to Cornwall, Devon, Wales, Peak District, etc ...

He is furious about it as it increases their risk- and means shops, etc, are more busy than they would normally be and he is concerned that have brought the virus with them. And yet he can also see the other side- and said if he would still be in NY, he would have done the same.
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  #5748  
Old 31.03.2020, 13:16
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yes Right. It's not showing yet but give it a few more weeks of the restrictions then it will show itself
If the useless shower that poses for a government here ramped up testing like they are doing in Germany (to the tune of 500,000 per week), then those with antibodies could be exempted from the isolation measures.
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  #5749  
Old 31.03.2020, 13:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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If the useless shower that poses for a government here ramped up testing like they are doing in Germany (to the tune of 500,000 per week), then those with antibodies could be exempted from the isolation measures.
Only we don't know how many anti-bodies are enough and how long they will last.

Based on population size we don't check much less than the Germans btw and are actually among the top countries when put in a list.
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Old 31.03.2020, 13:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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Until we have answers as for how immunity works out nobody will make that decision.
I don't agree. At some point, industries have to start as otherwise supply chains will collapse - regardless of immunity or infection. At least, if you want to avoid having more indirect victims than direct victims.
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Old 31.03.2020, 13:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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Only we don't know how many anti-bodies are enough and how long they will last.
I forgot to add "and wear masks when out and about".

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Based on population size we don't check much less than the Germans btw and are actually among the top countries when put in a list.
But could have done better, earlier. The writing was on the wall months ago.
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  #5752  
Old 31.03.2020, 14:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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I don't agree. At some point, industries have to start as otherwise supply chains will collapse - regardless of immunity or infection. At least, if you want to avoid having more indirect victims than direct victims.
Answers as for how immunity is working out will not take months to get, up to now we simply know to little, we don't even know if 1% or 50% of the population has been infected. Like it or not, without such answers restrictions will not be eased.
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  #5753  
Old 31.03.2020, 14:08
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Re: Coronavirus

The number of new contagions in CH seems constant. On one hand, things are not getting worse which is good. On the other hand, we're not yet going back to normal since the situation is not improving.

https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home...rnational.html



I've seen the data visualized on other site (corona-data.ch). BAG/OPSP presents the information according to the day the sample was taken, the guy at corona-data.ch presents the information according to the day the cantons published the information. There's no right or wrong, but BAG/OFSP uses a time reference coming from medical reality, and corona-data.ch uses a time reference coming from bureaucratic limits.

Finally, data from the last 2 days is not complete, so look at the plot for the earlier days. For example Canton Vaud has not published more data since 2 days ago https://www.vd.ch/toutes-les-actuali...anton-de-vaud/
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  #5754  
Old 31.03.2020, 14:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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Answers as for how immunity is working out will not take months to get, up to now we simply know to little, we don't even know if 1% or 50% of the population has been infected. Like it or not, without such answers restrictions will not be eased.
Antibodies last for years (or rather, the body retains the "memory" to do so for years). The problem is if the virus mutates sufficiently that the antibodies do not work.

As for finding out who has been infected, that's one of the reasons to do lots of testing, both for antigens and for antibodies.
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  #5755  
Old 31.03.2020, 14:22
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Re: Coronavirus

My Vermont ex NY friend posted this just now, with photos of the large crowd- and he is furious, no wonder

''Clueless New Yorkers Gather To Watch USNS Comfort Arrive, Completely Missing The Point
People in the city have been directed to stay home, yet dozens gathered beside the Hudson on Monday to watch a hospital boat sail into Pier 90."
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Old 31.03.2020, 14:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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Antibodies last for years (or rather, the body retains the "memory" to do so for years). The problem is if the virus mutates sufficiently that the antibodies do not work.

As for finding out who has been infected, that's one of the reasons to do lots of testing, both for antigens and for antibodies.
You should phone the labs who currently try to find this out and tell them you already figured it all out so they can stop their research to find out how long immunity lasts.

Yes often anti-bodies last for years, and sometimes they are gone in weeks or months. And they also don't know why people get ill again, did they get re-infected or did they have small traces of virus left in their bodies?
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  #5757  
Old 31.03.2020, 14:29
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Re: Coronavirus

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Antibodies last for years (or rather, the body retains the "memory" to do so for years). The problem is if the virus mutates sufficiently that the antibodies do not work.

As for finding out who has been infected, that's one of the reasons to do lots of testing, both for antigens and for antibodies.
Not always. Just read today that the body only maintains its memory of cold viruses (also Corona family) for 3 to 12 months. A prime challenge for the vaccine teams is to get around this. This is partially why none (I think) are looking at live or deactivated virus vaccines but taking different approaches.
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  #5758  
Old 31.03.2020, 14:29
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Re: Coronavirus

Is a Cold War mentality returning to the UK ?

RSG's - Regional seats of Government ( now called Strategic Co-ordination Centres ) are now
being implemented across the UK.
Yes the same people who practised being deployed to their RSG's during Cold War turns hot
exercise scenarios during the 1960's, 70's & 80's are now being deployed to the SCC's.

Now there will be regional 'Gold Commanders' instead of 'Regional Commisioners'.

No doubt many of them still housed in Cold War era bunkers like Hampshire and the Wessex
region was going to be co-ordinated by an Emergency planning Bunker in Winchester.
Which is still there today and coming into their own again !!

Daily Echo - The Cold War may have ended but Hampshire C.C's bunker is still used today !!

The announcement comes 1.10 secs into the Daily Briefing below:

UK Government Daily Briefing - return of the RSG's as SCC's ?
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Surely the time has come for Boris to 'circle the wagons' for a bit of herd immunity ?

Last edited by John William; 31.03.2020 at 14:59.
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  #5759  
Old 31.03.2020, 14:32
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Re: Coronavirus

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There's no right or wrong, but BAG/OFSP uses a time reference coming from medical reality, and corona-data.ch uses a time reference coming from bureaucratic limits.
Tell that the media. I'd argue that there is a right and wrong, at least from a scientific/medical point of view.

In any case, not sure why VD has not updated their numbers. According to https://rsalzer.github.io/COVID_19_CH/ all other cantons did updated today or yesterday. If I'm not wrong cantons publish data as they become available and unlike the BAG, not when the sample was taken?
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  #5760  
Old 31.03.2020, 14:33
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Re: Coronavirus

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Reminds me of first world war generals; "send some more troops over the top to their deaths".

Even Trump is backing off from this dangerous tactic.
i wonder how many more would die if they just let the virus spread freely and get everybody infected quickly and then clean up afterwards versus what currently is being done.
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