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  #5761  
Old 31.03.2020, 14:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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i wonder how many more would die if they just let the virus spread freely and get everybody infected quickly and then clean up afterwards versus what currently is being done.
If herd-immunity fails that would be a huge disaster.

Also if Switzerland would have a large part of the population infected and herd-immunity is not working and other countries took control by restrictions than all borders will open but for Switzerland they'll stay closed.
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  #5762  
Old 31.03.2020, 14:51
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Re: Coronavirus

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i wonder how many more would die if they just let the virus spread freely and get everybody infected quickly and then clean up afterwards versus what currently is being done.
Not sure that they could even model it as there are quite a few unknowns.

There is a possibility that it could mutate into something worse and the more people that have it, the more chance there is for it to mutate.


From a morality point of view, with a free spread, there are going to have to be comprehensive guidelines drawn up to decide who lives and who dies.

Another thing to consider is the people that decide to carry on self-isolating - they'd probably be enough of them to carry on spreading the virus after your "clear-up"
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  #5763  
Old 31.03.2020, 14:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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Based on the hope that there is immunity. Currently, there is nothing known about immunity to this virus; is it a strong or partial immunity and how long does it last.
Dr. John Campbell discusses immunity in yesterday's update.

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  #5764  
Old 31.03.2020, 14:56
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Re: Coronavirus

My employer just gave me a so called Berufspendler-Bescheinigung (commuter permit) to allow me to travel to Germany. Still do not understand why some of our management thnks they can travel around freely. What is not to understand with "stay at home"?????
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  #5765  
Old 31.03.2020, 15:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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My employer just gave me a so called Berufspendler-Bescheinigung (commuter permit) to allow me to travel to Germany. Still do not understand why some of our management thnks they can travel around freely. What is not to understand with "stay at home"?????
Do you belong to a risk group?

Stay at home is only a recommendation. For a lot of people in Switzerland it's business as usual, they have to go out and work.
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  #5766  
Old 31.03.2020, 15:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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Do you belong to a risk group?

Stay at home is only a recommendation. For a lot of people in Switzerland it's business as usual, they have to go out and work.

Yes, and that is ignored as well
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Old 31.03.2020, 15:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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My employer just gave me a so called Berufspendler-Bescheinigung (commuter permit) to allow me to travel to Germany. Still do not understand why some of our management thnks they can travel around freely. What is not to understand with "stay at home"?????
They probably have a personal definition of "essential".
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  #5768  
Old 31.03.2020, 15:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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Dr. John Campbell discusses immunity in yesterday's update.
Also John Campbell does not know how long a person keeps his anti-bodies, nor does he know how many people have been infected already.

So what is your point? We all know how herd-immunity works, we just don't know if herd-immunity will be established and if so for how long with this specific virus.
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  #5769  
Old 31.03.2020, 15:21
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Yes, and that is ignored as well
If you belong to a recognised high risk group there are actually a whole lot of things you can refuse and they have to do.

Question than is how far do you want to escalate this.
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Old 31.03.2020, 15:23
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Re: Coronavirus

I thought everyone had to stay at home unless it was absolutely necessary to travel ie. essential workers etc. Surely if people are still heading to work ...'business as usual' this is going to continue the spread of the virus and it defeats the whole point of a lockdown!?
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Old 31.03.2020, 15:27
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Re: Coronavirus

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Antibodies last for years (or rather, the body retains the "memory" to do so for years). The problem is if the virus mutates sufficiently that the antibodies do not work.

As for finding out who has been infected, that's one of the reasons to do lots of testing, both for antigens and for antibodies.
Simply no.

This is a coronavirus. The common cold is also a coronavirus and after having a cold the immunity lasts for around three months, not years.

Of course, mutation potentially makes matters worse.
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Old 31.03.2020, 15:31
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Re: Coronavirus

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That's a comparison that doesn't hold water.

A drop in GDP makes us poorer, which in turn reduces the life expectency for the younger. It's unpalatable, but there it is.

The (old) people we are so desparate to save will be dead of natural causes before the financial fallout has even filtered through.

But still, they can be isolated properly, confined to their homes, and supported/policed and cared for to keep them safe. Keep them indoors.
The rest of us are at a super, super low risk, not a bigly risk, a smally, minutey risk. The smallest risk you've ever seen, a beautiful risk.
You are really fixated on old people? You do know that is only one of the risk groups.

Interested to know what you have against old people?
Bad childhood or problems at work or....
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  #5773  
Old 31.03.2020, 15:32
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Re: Coronavirus

In today's Times and posted by the model himself, Larry the Cat.


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https://twitter.com/Number10cat/stat...97787784892417
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Old 31.03.2020, 15:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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A good friend who lived in NY most of his life but moved to Vermont a couple of years back with his family- says 1000s of NY have come up to VT recently, either to live in their holiday home or rent. Just as is happening with large cities in UK, people going to Cornwall, Devon, Wales, Peak District, etc ...

He is furious about it as it increases their risk- and means shops, etc, are more busy than they would normally be and he is concerned that have brought the virus with them. And yet he can also see the other side- and said if he would still be in NY, he would have done the same.


Discussion here in the Midwest is there will be two waves, with the second being worse. Urban centers are being hit now, with expectation the rural areas will see it later in the spring. Rural areas tend to have an older population, less family and neighbor support and less access to good healthcare.


https://www.healthline.com/health-ne...id-19-outbreak

The 15 percent of people in the United States who live in rural areas are largely a higher-risk population that is particularly vulnerable to serious outcomes with COVID-19.

In addition, many people in rural areas live 30 or more miles away from the nearest hospital.

“Systems that are under stress during routine times will be more stressed during disasters and times of crisis. Sometimes we forget those systems that are at the brink,” said Tricia Wachtendorf, PhD, director of the Disaster Research Center at the University of Delaware.
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Old 31.03.2020, 15:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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Interested to know what you have against old people?
Bad childhood or problems at work or....
Pathetic.
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  #5776  
Old 31.03.2020, 15:47
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Re: Coronavirus

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Answers as for how immunity is working out will not take months to get, up to now we simply know to little, we don't even know if 1% or 50% of the population has been infected. Like it or not, without such answers restrictions will not be eased.
At some point you have to, that's my point. You cannot lock down forever, even when you don't have any answers.
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Old 31.03.2020, 16:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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At some point you have to, that's my point. You cannot lock down forever, even when you don't have any answers.
But we do not have to make decisions based on no answers, in some time we will know how much of the population is/has been infected, we will know how immunity works for this disease, we will have wide-spread testing and than we also know a mortality rate and have much better number on who is how much on risk. And with the new upcoming info we will decide how and in what order to loosen the restrictions.
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Old 31.03.2020, 16:16
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Re: Coronavirus

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i wonder how many more would die if they just let the virus spread freely and get everybody infected quickly and then clean up afterwards versus what currently is being done.
Was been mapped a few weeks ago and updated since - the Tagi often carry the projections. For Switzerland around 80,000.
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  #5779  
Old 31.03.2020, 16:40
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Re: Coronavirus

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At some point you have to, that's my point. You cannot lock down forever, even when you don't have any answers.
Give it 2 more weeks. Summers coming and we all want to go to the bathing areas!

And don't forget. They cant make decisions in CH before DE decides. They dont know how to make independent decisions in CH!
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Old 31.03.2020, 16:43
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Re: Coronavirus

Maybe I'm just watching less or losing interest ..

But does it feel like the "hype", the "panic" or whatever you want to call it is slowing down?? Less in the news, social media etc..? Are we just getting used to it?

I watch the local Romandie news and a little UK news.. The focus is now more firmly on the side effects first, business, people, lifestyle, exsersizing at home etc.. The death rate stats are secondary now?

Personally I've given up trying to figure what numbers are correct for CH..

Are we starting to see the media prepare us for the return to normality already?
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