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  #5901  
Old 02.04.2020, 00:41
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Re: Coronavirus

@doropfiz

I also don't see any of this panic stuff nor do I see any evidence of panic nor have I seen it in the media I read.

I just did a search for the word panic in this thread and I found one EF colleague uses this word a lot and, excluding the replies to them, the word is hardly used at all.

Either panic is an invented topic, not reality, to create controversy here or it is a psychological projection where the human ego defends itself against an unconscious impulse to panic by denying its existence in themselves while attributing it to others.
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  #5902  
Old 02.04.2020, 00:42
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Re: Coronavirus

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Tell that to the doctors and nurses working over-time in crowded hospitals right now, worrying about there being enough ventilators to save their patients. You can try to shift the narrative, in your mind, all you want; but that doesn't change the fact that we are currently experiencing a pandemic. Maybe if this was your parent in the hospital right now and you weren't able to see them, then you would feel differently about there being nothing "abnormal" about this.


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This situation is evidently serious. The medical staff are going above and beyond.

I'd still like to know what our plan is. Because locking ourselves up can only buy time. It's not an answer. We aren't going to eradicate the disease. It's too contagious with too many low or no symptom cases and will inevitably rebound when we come out of lockdown. A vaccine is far away, with no guarantees of success. I guess we are scaling up medical and testing facilities in the time we have created for ourselves but I still think we will have to just ride it out sooner or later. In my mind there's too many people thinking lockdown is a solution.

I sure hope it's at partially seasonal.

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Old 02.04.2020, 01:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yes, I'm guilty and feeling safe
Always depends on how the data is presented, what is included, what isn't and how they got the numbers they do have. My wife was telling me that the in terms of testing alone, they are not universally testing symptomatic patients who fit the COVID profile and instead telling them to self quarantine - effectively to wait until they require acute care by returning to the hospital. The priority for testing is among healthcare workers and civil servants so even if the testing were indeed among the highest per capita, the positive case tally only gives a portion of the entire picture

At least in that regard, the case fatality rates from corona positive fails to take into account all of those who are potentially resolving on their own at home and never end up getting tested
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  #5904  
Old 02.04.2020, 01:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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This situation is evidently serious. The medical staff are going above and beyond.

I'd still like to know what our plan is. Because locking ourselves up can only buy time. It's not an answer. We aren't going to eradicate the disease. It's too contagious with too many low or no symptom cases and will inevitably rebound when we come out of lockdown. A vaccine is far away, with no guarantees of success. I guess we are scaling up medical and testing facilities in the time we have created for ourselves but I still think we will have to just ride it out sooner or later. In my mind there's too many people thinking lockdown is a solution.

I sure hope it's at partially seasonal.
So far we know remarkably little. We know that it is serious because spreads fast and many who get infected have mild or moderate symptoms and most people live. And because some die surprisingly soon after having been apparently perfectly healthy before.

The aim of the lockdown is not to eradicate the disease. The purpose it to flatten the curve, so that the health system doesn't crash.

I've wondered whether the lockdown might be not just ended, abruptly, but phased out.

Perhaps some sectors will be allowed to resume business. Or some groups of the population allowed to go out, on some days (similar to smog control in some cities, where cars are given a day-of-the-week licence, on which they're allowed to drive into the city, and on other days they are not). There are already offices working like that, having divided the teams into days, with people working with greater physical space between them. Perhaps there'll be a gradual compromising on the rules, over a period of weeks or months.

There will be more infections, that's almost guaranteed, but if they don't all happen at once, we'll be able to cope. Not just the hospitals, but the general infrastructure.
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  #5905  
Old 02.04.2020, 01:28
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Re: Coronavirus

When we know current infection rate of the population we can decide how things can be changed, as said before if current infection grade is very low we're in hell, if it is very high we are quickly back to normal. At the moment in Switzerland 0,205% of the population is confirmed to have been infected, now the numbers 10x and 20x pass by a lot, if that be true than that would suck majorly since we'd then only have an infection rate of 2% to 4% of the population which has given us almost 500 deaths already and still over 14K active cases of which beyond doubt hundreds more will die.

Before we know the infection rate of the population we simply cannot decide what to do next.
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Old 02.04.2020, 01:55
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Re: Coronavirus

I miss Brexit
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Old 02.04.2020, 02:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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When we know current infection rate of the population we can decide how things can be changed, as said before if current infection grade is very low we're in hell, if it is very high we are quickly back to normal. At the moment in Switzerland 0,205% of the population is confirmed to have been infected, now the numbers 10x and 20x pass by a lot, if that be true than that would suck majorly since we'd then only have an infection rate of 2% to 4% of the population which has given us almost 500 deaths already and still over 14K active cases of which beyond doubt hundreds more will die.

Before we know the infection rate of the population we simply cannot decide what to do next.
maybe another way to look at it is with hospital beds. if there's only, say, 5 beds per 1000 of population. then if 20% of the population need a hospital bed for 2-3 weeks, then trying to flatten the curve to take care of everyone will mean special measures for over a year.

i doubt that will be acceptable to most people.
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Old 02.04.2020, 02:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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When we know current infection rate of the population we can decide how things can be changed, as said before if current infection grade is very low we're in hell, if it is very high we are quickly back to normal. At the moment in Switzerland 0,205% of the population is confirmed to have been infected, now the numbers 10x and 20x pass by a lot, if that be true than that would suck majorly since we'd then only have an infection rate of 2% to 4% of the population which has given us almost 500 deaths already and still over 14K active cases of which beyond doubt hundreds more will die.

Before we know the infection rate of the population we simply cannot decide what to do next.
Could you please explain this again, possibly in smaller steps? Thank you.
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Old 02.04.2020, 03:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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Could you please explain this again, possibly in smaller steps? Thank you.
In steps:

If we know how many are infected now in total of the whole population by running like 100.000 tests around the country. We can calculate and extrapolate the expected medical need and amounts of deaths for a whole infected population. If half the population already is infected the medical need would double of what it is now by infecting the whole population, so wait some weeks till hospitals run empty and we all can go out again.

If however only 2% is infected than we know that getting rid of all restrictions would cause an incredible rise in medical need and amount of deaths which simply would be a to high price to pay imho, getting 40% infected would in that case simply have medical need multiply by a factor 20 and cause a minimum of 20 times the deaths but likely much more since hospitals have run out of capacity it be a scenario where we have to park cooling trucks next to hospitals for storage.

One can finetune all of this based on numbers and chances of age-groups and medical/physical condition. And this would also all depends on what the researches will find out on how and for how long our immuun system is able to witstand the virus after we had it once. And eventually a vaccin is likely but nobody can say if that would be this year or next year. And we can't lock-up for a year.
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Old 02.04.2020, 03:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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maybe another way to look at it is with hospital beds. if there's only, say, 5 beds per 1000 of population. then if 20% of the population need a hospital bed for 2-3 weeks, then trying to flatten the curve to take care of everyone will mean special measures for over a year.

i doubt that will be acceptable to most people.
People will need to have patience till we at least have the numbers, and those of lowest risk could go out in large numbers first, some others will simply have to make their choice wait or high chance of death.

Eventually a country has to move on if it doesn't that others will and keep their borders closed for those who don't.
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Old 02.04.2020, 08:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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I miss Brexit
I don’t. It got so bad I ignored the entire thread.
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  #5912  
Old 02.04.2020, 08:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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9/11 also was a number 1 leading death cause of death in the US on a daily basis... For 11th of september

Bull crap statistic, nothing else
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.............The #3 cause of death for a day means nothing really, a airplane crash or terrorist attack can bring the same number and it will mean absolutely nothing to the general picture of safety/health etc.
Less than 3,000 died in 9/11.
Worldwide yesterday there were 4,890 COVID deaths.

Tragic as plane crashes are, deaths are only in the hundreds so will never reach #3 cause of death for a day.

Yesterday with 1,049 deaths COVID became the #2 killer in the US. This not a one-off event like a plane crash or a terrorist attack, this was yesterday, today and will be increasing every day for the foreseeable future.

2019's flu season has recorded an average of 383 deaths per day, CDC figures show which blows your COVID comparisons out of the water.
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Old 02.04.2020, 08:53
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Re: Coronavirus

I don't think it is a question of how serious the Coronavirus is, I think it's a question as to whether it is really worth shutting down the world's economy in order to combat it. I suspect that when this is all over and the inquiry is made, that people will come to the conclusion that we went too far.
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  #5914  
Old 02.04.2020, 09:03
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Re: Coronavirus

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In steps:

If we know how many are infected now in total of the whole population by running like 100.000 tests around the country. We can calculate and extrapolate the expected medical need and amounts of deaths for a whole infected population. If half the population already is infected the medical need would double of what it is now by infecting the whole population, so wait some weeks till hospitals run empty and we all can go out again.

If however only 2% is infected than we know that getting rid of all restrictions would cause an incredible rise in medical need and amount of deaths which simply would be a to high price to pay imho, getting 40% infected would in that case simply have medical need multiply by a factor 20 and cause a minimum of 20 times the deaths but likely much more since hospitals have run out of capacity it be a scenario where we have to park cooling trucks next to hospitals for storage.

One can finetune all of this based on numbers and chances of age-groups and medical/physical condition. And this would also all depends on what the researches will find out on how and for how long our immuun system is able to witstand the virus after we had it once. And eventually a vaccin is likely but nobody can say if that would be this year or next year. And we can't lock-up for a year.
Key to any opening is testing. Firstly mass antibody testing so those who have had the disease know it and can go about normally. We've (the global population) been promised simple antibody testing kits for a couple of weeks now and afaik they still haven't turned up - I can only guess there are still some unexpected issues.

Second is Korean style test, trace and isolation for any suspected case. This needs a sufficient supply of testing kits for the active illness - which we haven't had til now apparently and many countries still don't - and also a not too great reservoir of active cases to keep the volume of tracing down to a manageable level. At current infection levels, tracing would still mean isolation for a pretty high proportion of the population.

With luck maybe we can move from lockdown to test and trace during May....
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Old 02.04.2020, 09:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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With luck maybe we can move from lockdown to test and trace during May....
Amen to that!
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Old 02.04.2020, 09:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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Before we know the infection rate of the population we simply cannot decide what to do next.
Of course you can. After all, all actions that have been taken because of the corona virus so far, were taken without knowing the infection rate.
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Old 02.04.2020, 09:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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Old 02.04.2020, 09:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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will covid reccur over and over again or it will eventually stop?

The #3 cause of death for a day means nothing really, a airplane crash or terrorist attack can bring the same number and it will mean absolutely nothing to the general picture of safety/health etc. If there is a plane crash today, would you care about the victims of yesterday before taking your flight? Or you will know that the chances of nothing happening are 99.99%

The same is happening here. In the peak period in China, Covid death overall was number 49th cause of death. More people died from road accidents.

Many scientist and doctors have warned that the panic and the anti-virus measures have caused more deaths than the the actual virus.

I have nothing to achieve, my personal opinion is people are panicking and the whole thing is going tits up. People are more in danger from the panic caused from coronavirus rather than the virus itself.

All the numbers so far show that there has been nothing abnormal..except the panic
omatstat shared a good insight yesterday, reading and sharing stats gives solace to some of us.

I wouldn't go so hard on people expressing contrarian views, even if they're not exactly well informed. Some people need to deny everything in order to keep living a normal life, otherwise their anxiety explodes. In some way, the deniers are the most fragile because they can't look at a problem without panicking. Their safety relies on minimizing problems.

The key to this riddle is acknowledging deniers are scared too and minimizing any problem is their way to deal with them. Just, don't let yourself be affected by the way others deal with their own fears.

V__: statistics is not the way to approach terrorism. They're OK for quality control in manufacturing, research experiments and pricing insurance, but not the most useful tool to deal with people's worries. Empathy works better. As long as V__ is not taking decisions that impact the community, everything's fine.
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Old 02.04.2020, 09:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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All your chart is showing is that the lock-down and control is working.

(Which is probably not the image you wanted to portray).


But it's a bit dumb to post such a chart when the corona virus outbreak is occurring now, and not in when it is over.

Understanding this stuff really isn't your strong point, is it?
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Old 02.04.2020, 09:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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https://www.ft.com/content/e3737752-...2-e7df9eb9f6f8

British American Tobacco, a subsidiary of BAT Industries, seems to be making some progress in the search for a vaccine. I used to work in their London Head Office many years ago. The company has some pretty good research facilities.
biotechnology FTW!

The FT is offering for free most of their articles related to the virus. So, everyone can read.

British American Tobacco, the maker of Lucky Strike and Camel cigarettes, has entered the fray of companies trying to develop a vaccine against Covid-19 — by growing a potential antigen in genetically engineered tobacco plants.

BAT argued that tobacco, which annually kills millions of people who smoke it, was particularly suited for medical research. It cannot host pathogens that cause human disease and potential antigens can accumulate in its plants in six weeks “compared to several months using conventional methods”, it said.


Tobacco kills in some way, tobacco might give more years to your life if used in another way
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