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  #5921  
Old 02.04.2020, 09:38
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Re: Coronavirus

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All your chart is showing is that the lock-down and control is working.

(Which is probably not the image you wanted to portray).


But it's a bit dumb to post such a chart when the corona virus outbreak is occurring now, and not in when it is over.

Understanding this stuff really isn't your strong point, is it?
If lockdown works, than why:

Sweden per 1M cases 490, deaths per 1M 24
Switzerland per 1M cases 2055, deaths per 1M 56
Denmark per 1M cases 516, deaths per 1M 18

Is it anomaly Tom?
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  #5922  
Old 02.04.2020, 09:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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If lockdown works, than why:

Sweden per 1M cases 490, deaths per 1M 24
Switzerland per 1M cases 2055, deaths per 1M 56
Denmark per 1M cases 516, deaths per 1M 18

Is it anomaly Tom?
Your chart only shows a total and is not country-specific. Why are you mentioning statistics by country?

You haven't done that for other diseases in your chart.
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  #5923  
Old 02.04.2020, 09:49
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Re: Coronavirus

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Your chart only shows a total and is not country-specific. Why are you mentioning statistics by country?

You haven't done that for other diseases in your chart.
The total is to show you how small this virus is compared to swine flu for example.

You argument is that the lock down is slowing down the virus - I'm proving you wrong with a concrete example.
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  #5924  
Old 02.04.2020, 09:57
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Re: Coronavirus

Hey all,


I have seen this website being discredited before and I'm not asking your opinion about it's credibility: https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/#latest


My observation is that many people I know are catching on to the arguments posted there and no one person has enough resources to fact-check every statement that is made. However, just calling the list of arguments a list of bull-shit is not a very convincing argument and it is often difficult to come up with compelling train of though, why a particular statement is misleading, wrong, misinterpreted etc. I am going to post some statements from this website in the hope that we can find compelling counter-arguments to them collectively.



It worries me that the people that write these "warning from a swiss doctor" now renamed to "facts about Covid-19" do not disclose their names. In some way it is also understandable though, if the only reaction would be: "you don't deserve to be listened to, shut up!" My premise is, that any argument can be debunked even without name-calling.



I hope this doesn't turn into a personal fight between two camps. Really, I have no intention of chosing sides. My aim is to falsify the claims on that website. I am working on the front in the local hospital, so I am not trying to downplay the situation.


If you would prefer this to be a new thread, please let me know. I have no preference on this.



Take care, be civil, stay safe.
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  #5925  
Old 02.04.2020, 09:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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Why the outrage?
Is there a predefined opinion posters must follow? If so, it should be specified at the very beginning of every thread.
Of course there is no requirement to follow a set opinion. Opinions (well argued) are healthy. What is not useful, and in fact downright dangerous, is the Trump approach of downplaying a significant risk so that many ignore it and consequently succumb to the danger. Or to put it simply, some people who are influenced by people like V__ and act (or fail to act) accordingly on the coronavirus situation will die.

That's why Facebook and Twitter are banning people like V__ at the moment.

Ridiculous arguments like "a plane crash is the leading cause of death on a specific day" just underscore the idiocy of V__'s posts on this topic.

My "outrage" is the same outrage I reserve for anti-vaxxers.
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  #5926  
Old 02.04.2020, 10:02
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Re: Coronavirus

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biotechnology FTW!

The FT is offering for free most of their articles related to the virus. So, everyone can read.

British American Tobacco, the maker of Lucky Strike and Camel cigarettes, has entered the fray of companies trying to develop a vaccine against Covid-19 — by growing a potential antigen in genetically engineered tobacco plants.

BAT argued that tobacco, which annually kills millions of people who smoke it, was particularly suited for medical research. It cannot host pathogens that cause human disease and potential antigens can accumulate in its plants in six weeks “compared to several months using conventional methods”, it said.


Tobacco kills in some way, tobacco might give more years to your life if used in another way
Was this from yesterdays April fools? Link starts asking for subscription so I couldn't find a date.

I'm just thinking something along the lines of "We have created a device which will allow the antivirals to be applied directly to the affected areas, they come in packs of 20 and are individually wrapped in a paper packaging. Place the orange coloured end of one dispensers in your lips. Light the white couloured end with an open flame whilst breathing in. Inhale the medication in to your lungs in puffs or drags. It's recommended against sharing individual dispensers, although we recommend sharing unused dispensers with your friends."
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  #5927  
Old 02.04.2020, 10:05
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Re: Coronavirus

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My aim is to falsify the claims on that website.
Good for you.

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I am working on the front in the local hospital, so I am not trying to downplay the situation.
Have the hospitals filled with patients yet or we are still bringing patients from France?

Are Swiss hospitals collapsing as predicted 3 weeks ago?
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  #5928  
Old 02.04.2020, 10:09
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Re: Coronavirus

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The total is to show you how small this virus is compared to swine flu for example.

You argument is that the lock down is slowing down the virus - I'm proving you wrong with a concrete example.
I think you could only say that if it were true, after the event and not during it.
That would be a "concrete" example.
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  #5929  
Old 02.04.2020, 10:09
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Re: Coronavirus

Why Covid-19 deaths are a substantial over-estimate

Many UK health spokespersons have been careful to repeatedly say that the numbers quoted in the UK indicate death with the virus, not death due to the virus – this matters. When giving evidence in parliament a few days ago, Prof. Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London said that he now expects fewer than 20,000 Covid-19 deaths in the UK but, importantly, two-thirds of these people would have died anyway. In other words, he suggests that the crude figure for ‘Covid deaths’ is three times higher than the number who have actually been killed by Covid-19. (Even the two-thirds figure is an estimate – it would not surprise me if the real proportion is higher.)

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...vid-19-deaths-
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  #5930  
Old 02.04.2020, 10:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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I think you could only say that if it were true, after the event and not during it.
That would be a "concrete" example.
I agree with you. But after 3 weeks and still no sign of "the wave is coming" I think we should start to think there is no wave coming...
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  #5931  
Old 02.04.2020, 10:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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Of course there is no requirement to follow a set opinion. Opinions (well argued) are healthy. What is not useful, and in fact downright dangerous, is the Trump approach of downplaying a significant risk so that many ignore it and consequently succumb to the danger. Or to put it simply, some people who are influenced by people like V__ and act (or fail to act) accordingly on the coronavirus situation will die.

That's why Facebook and Twitter are banning people like V__ at the moment.

Ridiculous arguments like "a plane crash is the leading cause of death on a specific day" just underscore the idiocy of V__'s posts on this topic.

My "outrage" is the same outrage I reserve for anti-vaxxers.
This.

And some people choose the worst possible moment to defend some irresponsible individuals' "freedom of speech".
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  #5932  
Old 02.04.2020, 10:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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Ridiculous arguments like "a plane crash is the leading cause of death on a specific day" just underscore the idiocy of V__'s posts on this topic.
The mods haven't really helped here as they deleted posts where I proved that V_ was falsifying data in his posts (OK, they were photos and not data as such, but still).

The mods are not deleting his posts where he is making biased and distorted claims - may be because they don't understand that he is doing that.
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  #5933  
Old 02.04.2020, 10:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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....Eventually a country has to move on if it doesn't that others will and keep their borders closed for those who don't.
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  #5934  
Old 02.04.2020, 10:20
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Re: Coronavirus

For a start let's discuss these statements:

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  • The US television station CBS was caught using footage from an Italian intensive care unit in a piece on the current situation in New York. In fact, dozens of recordings by citizen journalists show that it is currently very quiet in the hospitals on the US East and West Coast. Even the „corpse refrigerator trucks“ prominently shown in the media are unused and empty.
  • Contrary to media reports, the register of German intensive care units also shows no increased occupancy. An employee of a Munich clinic explained that they had been „waiting for weeks for the wave to hit“, but that there was „no increase in patient numbers“. He said that the politicians‘ statements did not correspond with their own experience, and that the „myth of the killer virus“ could „not be confirmed“.
  • Also in Swiss clinics, no increased occupancy has been observed so far. A visitor to the cantonal hospital in Lucerne reports that there is „less activity than in normal times“. Entire floors have been closed for Covid19, but staff „are still waiting for patients“. The hospitals in Bern, Basel, Zug and Zurich have also been „cleaned out“. Even in Ticino, the intensive care units are not working to capacity, but patients are now being transferred to the German-Swiss departments. From a purely medical point of view, this makes little sense.

My objections to this: Yes, many hospitals are currently much quieter than usual, having suspended elective (non-urgent) procedures and bracing up for the expected increase of Covid-19 patients. There is nothing unexpected about this. I have a friend that works in Locarno, and she paints a different picture: they have plenty of work to do and the reason that they have not reached maximum capacity yet, is because 1) many nurses that normally work in other areas have been recruited for the crisis, same goes for physiotherapists. 2) People are working over-time and are basically sacrificing their time for this purpose. Part-time staff has stocked up their hours. Breaks are kept to a minimum.



The argument about intensive care occupancy in Germany links to a website with a stop light status of all ICU stations in Germany. Sorting on high care shows that currently 7.3% of all ICU stations with invasive ventilation are full and another 13.5% of those ICU stations with limited capacity to take more patients. That leaves 79% with some capacity to take more patients for the whole of Germany. Since no baseline is given or known, the argument that no increase is visible is based on thin air. And yes, we are all waiting for the big wave to hit, but more so we are hoping it won't and that our capacity will be enough.



To the CBS reportage: bad journalism will always exist, and while sad, it doesn't prove a point other than fueling unfounded conspiracies that some evil entity is trying to destroy us all.
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  #5935  
Old 02.04.2020, 10:25
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Re: Coronavirus

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F
To the CBS reportage: bad journalism will always exist, and while sad, it doesn't prove a point other than fueling unfounded conspiracies that some evil entity is trying to destroy us all.
Faking a footage is not bad journalism, is creating mass hysteria. It fuels people like most EFers that today they seem to be allergic to facts, they only want to hear end of the world stories.

How many news stories were fabricated or at best hyped up in this madness?
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  #5936  
Old 02.04.2020, 10:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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Good for you.



Have the hospitals filled with patients yet or we are still bringing patients from France?

Are Swiss hospitals collapsing as predicted 3 weeks ago?

Hospitals in Switzerland are coping okay so far, as far as I am informed. No they are not collapsing. And the weather prediction of 3 weeks ago was wrong too. Don't get me wrong, I think it's a good idea to question the measures we are taking rigorously, it could be that our treatment is deadlier than the disease (it wouldn't be the first time).



Scientific method according to Popper states that a scientific hypothesis has to be falsifiable and that you cannot really prove anything, but you can prune those hypotheses that do not hold up to scrutiny.
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Old 02.04.2020, 10:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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If lockdown works, than why:

Sweden per 1M cases 490, deaths per 1M 24
Switzerland per 1M cases 2055, deaths per 1M 56
Denmark per 1M cases 516, deaths per 1M 18

Is it anomaly Tom?
Is this a serious or a rhetorical question?

Among the three countries, Sweden is the country with the lowest number of tests (per capita) and the highest case fatality rate.

I do hope that Sweden's approach will work out for them - or that they will change their strategy as soon as they realize that it won't work, but just looking at crude numbers doesn't really help at this point in time.
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  #5938  
Old 02.04.2020, 10:29
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Re: Coronavirus

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Why Covid-19 deaths are a substantial over-estimate

Many UK health spokespersons have been careful to repeatedly say that the numbers quoted in the UK indicate death with the virus, not death due to the virus – this matters. When giving evidence in parliament a few days ago, Prof. Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London said that he now expects fewer than 20,000 Covid-19 deaths in the UK but, importantly, two-thirds of these people would have died anyway. In other words, he suggests that the crude figure for ‘Covid deaths’ is three times higher than the number who have actually been killed by Covid-19. (Even the two-thirds figure is an estimate – it would not surprise me if the real proportion is higher.)

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...vid-19-deaths-
"two-thirds of these people would have died anyway." Nonsense, everybody dies sooner or later; or are a third of these people immortal?
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  #5939  
Old 02.04.2020, 10:31
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Re: Coronavirus

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Faking a footage is not bad journalism, is creating mass hysteria. It fuels people like most EFers that today they seem to be allergic to facts, they only want to hear end of the world stories.

How many news stories were fabricated or at best hyped up in this madness?

You are pointing to a bigger problem that is independent of any virus: the dangerous merger of news with advertising. Independent journalism is an endangered species these days. Yes we should fight for freedom of speech and declaration of interests and we should discourage news coverage by ad brokers.
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  #5940  
Old 02.04.2020, 10:33
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Re: Coronavirus

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Is this a serious or a rhetorical question?

Among the three countries, Sweden is the country with the lowest number of tests (per capita) and the highest case fatality rate.

I do hope that Sweden's approach will work out for them - or that they will change their strategy as soon as they realize that it won't work, but just looking at crude numbers doesn't really help at this point in time.
Switzerland has double the case fatality rate compared to Sweden.

Switzerland is in lock down for 3 weeks, Sweden isn't
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