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  #5981  
Old 02.04.2020, 14:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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It's called "trolling". He just arguing for the sake of it, he's not interested in promoting any view whatsoever, he just wants to get a reaction from people. Quite sad really. We don't know what the moderators are doing behind the scenes however, so I'm not blaming them - they have access to more information than we mere mortals.

Until then, just put him on your ignore list. He'll stop getting a reaction and wander off eventually.
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  #5982  
Old 02.04.2020, 14:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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Actual numbers say that corona virus appeared first in Sweden, 1 month before Switzerland.

First confirmed case in Sweden, 31 January 2020

First confirmed case in Switzerland, 25 February

So Sweden has been "hit" with corona virus 1 month before Switzerland... But the wave still must be coming?
The first case in Sweden was isolated, cured and released without spreading the infection.

You probably missed the earlier post that showed when infections started to actually ramp up in individual European countries.
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Old 02.04.2020, 14:36
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But the price on the heads of the future deaths should be ignored at the moment? I think thats being blinkered. I'm reminded of the trolley problem, the only issue is we don't know how many people are on the tracks.

I'm terrified of my loved ones being at risk at the moment, but should I not also be concerned for those same loved ones who will be facing hardship due to lost businesses, housing instability and increased mortality rates in the future?
No of course the potential future problems should not be ignored, but we all need to do what we can now. Here and now. Not trying to get a lid on it as they race for a vaccine would be irresponsible int the extreme.

I still don't really understand your point. Lift the current restrictions now and deal with whatever comes (-even though the models and experiences from other countries show this is a terrible idea)?.

Again, you are comparing the reality of now, the numbers of now, with potential future numbers. No-one has a crystal ball.
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  #5984  
Old 02.04.2020, 14:43
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Re: Coronavirus

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At the moment COVID-19 is 10 times less deadly than swine flue and 15 times less deadly than seasonal flu

I find it sad that you seem to be rooting for more casualties from COVID -19 to feed your panic frenzy
Please provide the numbers you used and their source for the first three month deaths after the first emergence of swine flu and after the first emergence of seasonal flu.
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Old 02.04.2020, 14:49
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Re: Coronavirus

So you are comparing the first three months of a new disease with annual figures from well established endemic diseases.
This is an unusual approach.
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  #5986  
Old 02.04.2020, 14:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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But if a person is deliberately and constantly trying to disrupt a topic...
The fact that someone posts opinions that are not in line with yours is not "disrupting the topic" its simply challenging your own biased view. The fact of the matter is, the risk of Covid is based on EXTRAPOLATIONS, not on current death rates. And as every extrapolation, it's based on assumptions. The current view of governments is lets destroy the world in order to protect from something that MIGHT happen. From then on it's a matter of each of us individual risk perceptions whether we accept this as normal or not. I don't. You do.

Sorry for disrupting "the topic", please keep on worrying
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  #5987  
Old 02.04.2020, 14:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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The first case in Sweden was isolated, cured and released without spreading the infection.

You probably missed the earlier post that showed when infections started to actually ramp up in individual European countries.
So Sweden gets the virus 1 month before Switzerland, clears it, nobody is infected, even though it's a 10 days incubation period, but 3 months later a wave is incoming and has nothing to do with the first infections in January?
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  #5988  
Old 02.04.2020, 14:55
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Re: Coronavirus

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So Sweden gets the virus 1 month before Switzerland, clears it, nobody is infected, even though it's a 10 days incubation period, but 3 months later a wave is incoming and has nothing to do with the first infections in January?
Congratulations, you got it.

This case is well documented in Sweden.

You are moving the goalposts again! There were no "first infections in January". There was one lady who flew in from Wuhan and was isolated.
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  #5989  
Old 02.04.2020, 15:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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So Sweden gets the virus 1 month before Switzerland, clears it, nobody is infected, even though it's a 10 days incubation period, but 3 months later a wave is incoming and has nothing to do with the first infections in January?
The first patient was a woman in Jönköping who came back the 24th of Jan. from Wuhan and being aware of the virus was smart enough to stay at home and avoid any contact with others, when she a week later developed a cough she called the medical authorities and explained the situation instead of going to a doctor herself. She was taken in and tested positive, a more perfect example of an isolated case is hardly possible.

A 2nd case was confirmed on the 27th of Feb after which the numbers started growing, Switzerland had its first case on the 25th of Feb. after which the numbers started growing.

If only you knew what you are talking about....

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Old 02.04.2020, 15:08
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Re: Coronavirus

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He's showing the topic from the other side with other motives.
Same as some experts are looking at short term effects, others are looking further down the line. Neither are wrong and different people will fall to one side or the other. Some will cite moral superiority and others will cite scientific rational.
That's the big difference.
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  #5991  
Old 02.04.2020, 15:09
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Re: Coronavirus

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I think the measures we have in place for the moment are adequate for the current status, however they will need to be reviewed for the duration for which they must be continued.
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No of course the potential future problems should not be ignored, but we all need to do what we can now. Here and now. Not trying to get a lid on it as they race for a vaccine would be irresponsible int the extreme.

I still don't really understand your point. Lift the current restrictions now and deal with whatever comes (-even though the models and experiences from other countries show this is a terrible idea)?.

Again, you are comparing the reality of now, the numbers of now, with potential future numbers. No-one has a crystal ball.
I did not say lift the current restrictions, please see me quoting myself above. I'd appreciate it if you don't swing to the extreme of the argument just to argue against the idea that what we're doing now might not be the best case scenario.

Doing all we can "here and now" can cause damage in the future. You are also using projections through your crystal ball with a boundary of 6-18 months or so, I don't know exactly the timeframe. As for the vaccine it's a lovely assumption it'll be here in a year or less, again an assumption.

What I'm trying to say is that the measures we are taking to have the best case scenario for mortality in the 6-18 months might have larger negative consequences for mortality in the timescale beyond that. We don't know for a fact that what we are doing is the best thing at the moment. I just want to have it noted that what looks best for right now might not be the best thing looking back in 2 years.
In the meantime, I'd like to continue to hear other sides of the argument other than people wanting to kick somebody out because they don't like the sound of dissenting opinions.

That you counter most of his arguments helps me (and I hope others) to keep our eyes open is invaluable.
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  #5992  
Old 02.04.2020, 15:09
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Re: Coronavirus

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And yet another dumb post from you.
It's dumb according to you because it states an OPINION which is different from your OPINION Do you get YOUR problem in the whole polemic or you're still obtuse?
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  #5993  
Old 02.04.2020, 15:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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No of course the potential future problems should not be ignored, but we all need to do what we can now. Here and now. Not trying to get a lid on it as they race for a vaccine would be irresponsible int the extreme.

I still don't really understand your point. Lift the current restrictions now and deal with whatever comes (-even though the models and experiences from other countries show this is a terrible idea)?.

Again, you are comparing the reality of now, the numbers of now, with potential future numbers. No-one has a crystal ball.
I disagree on the first paragraph and that was Ato's point. You think about the here and now, others don't. No, I don't have a crystal ball, neither do you, though, and none of us have any proof that anything that's being done actually works.

I didn't personally necessarily downplay anything, but I am questioning proportionality because even extrapolated guesses - and that's all it is at this point - don't seem to foresee the apocalypse. I understand the need to phase of course, so that healthcare systems don't collapse (needless to say some already have). Mostly though I'm calling for reflection and long-term planning because the "here and now" isn't an option in my book, and nowhere near sustainable. Ato's point - which I agree with - is in many ways that focusing just on the now is neglecting any much more deadly consequences down the road.

I would be calling for a measured, step-by-step restart after Easter, and would suspect most countries who have indeed been able to mitigate some of the effects so far (including but not limited to Switzerland) will do precisely that, though maybe not all at the exact same time. There are no other alternatives for democratic states (those that still are anyway) and it needs a careful balance between immediate reaction to mitigate the worst, and avoidance of long-term, much more deeper disaster. From what I see, the first piece has been done.

Waiting for a vaccine in worldwide lockdown is of course no option. Unless we ALL want to lose everything we have and starve to death. Meanwhile the antivaxxer crowd can get ready to fight that whole new battle (already read some stuff on that, clever peeps)
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  #5994  
Old 02.04.2020, 15:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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That's the big difference.
Fair, but there is the odd one which actually backs up his arguments.
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  #5995  
Old 02.04.2020, 15:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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The fact that someone posts opinions that are not in line with yours is not "disrupting the topic" its simply challenging your own biased view. The fact of the matter is, the risk of Covid is based on EXTRAPOLATIONS, not on current death rates. And as every extrapolation, it's based on assumptions. The current view of governments is lets destroy the world in order to protect from something that MIGHT happen. From then on it's a matter of each of us individual risk perceptions whether we accept this as normal or not. I don't. You do.

Sorry for disrupting "the topic", please keep on worrying
So far the real world is tracking the "EXTRAPOLATIONS" quite well unless you have evidence to the contrary.

You do not find the death rate worrying?
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  #5996  
Old 02.04.2020, 15:20
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It's dumb according to you because it states an OPINION which is different from your OPINION Do you get YOUR problem in the whole polemic or you're still obtuse?
If I state things I can back them up or it is controllable math, else my post makes it clear it is an opinion.

V is simply posting a lot of shit constantly supported by only a few people who hate facts and like a stir like yourself.
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Old 02.04.2020, 15:23
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Re: Coronavirus

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I did not say lift the current restrictions, please see me quoting myself above. I'd appreciate it if you don't swing to the extreme of the argument just to argue against the idea that what we're doing now might not be the best case scenario.

Doing all we can "here and now" can cause damage in the future. You are also using projections through your crystal ball with a boundary of 6-18 months or so, I don't know exactly the timeframe. As for the vaccine it's a lovely assumption it'll be here in a year or less, again an assumption.

What I'm trying to say is that the measures we are taking to have the best case scenario for mortality in the 6-18 months might have larger negative consequences for mortality in the timescale beyond that. We don't know for a fact that what we are doing is the best thing at the moment. I just want to have it noted that what looks best for right now might not be the best thing looking back in 2 years.
In the meantime, I'd like to continue to hear other sides of the argument other than people wanting to kick somebody out because they don't like the sound of dissenting opinions.

That you counter most of his arguments helps me (and I hope others) to keep our eyes open is invaluable.


"...might...""We don't know..."

Indeed, we are all working on assumptions, but surely it is better to be prepared for worst case and not need all the resources/implemented processes etc than the opposite? How is what is being done now not good?

Again, we are not looking at this from then. We are living now.

What is the other side of the argument. Please state it clearly and loudly for those of us clearly in the cheap seats at the back.

Whose arguments am I countering? I'm merely saying it as I see it.
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  #5998  
Old 02.04.2020, 15:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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I did not say lift the current restrictions, please see me quoting myself above. I'd appreciate it if you don't swing to the extreme of the argument just to argue against the idea that what we're doing now might not be the best case scenario.

Doing all we can "here and now" can cause damage in the future. You are also using projections through your crystal ball with a boundary of 6-18 months or so, I don't know exactly the timeframe. As for the vaccine it's a lovely assumption it'll be here in a year or less, again an assumption.

What I'm trying to say is that the measures we are taking to have the best case scenario for mortality in the 6-18 months might have larger negative consequences for mortality in the timescale beyond that. We don't know for a fact that what we are doing is the best thing at the moment. I just want to have it noted that what looks best for right now might not be the best thing looking back in 2 years.
In the meantime, I'd like to continue to hear other sides of the argument other than people wanting to kick somebody out because they don't like the sound of dissenting opinions.

That you counter most of his arguments helps me (and I hope others) to keep our eyes open is invaluable.
Hindsight is always the best way to make decisions but we can only work with what we have and know.
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Old 02.04.2020, 15:29
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I disagree on the first paragraph and that was Ato's point. You think about the here and now, others don't. No, I don't have a crystal ball, neither do you, though, and none of us have any proof that anything that's being done actually works.
What is wrong with considering there here and now as well as future impact? I think that's what most governments are trying to do.

Yes, there is proof that social distancing/isolation works. It's why models of successful behaviour are being replicated where possible.

Clearly we have different views but there is no need to take the tone of "if you don't think about the future you're doomed..." Everyone thinks about the future I'm sure but if you're telling me folk shouldn't be focused on keeping their loved ones safe and healthy now, I just don't understand the "argument".
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Old 02.04.2020, 15:29
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Re: Coronavirus

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Switzerland is an extremely cushy place to be, few people here will lose their homes and jobs with zero help from anyone, let alone run out of food.
Yet they can get sick and can lose their life. Children can lose their parents, not only grandparents (those who have, but keep in mind 25% of the population are foreigners and the vast majority of them have no extended family here)

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What do people think will happen in some countries that are now deploying authoritarian measures (and these countries aren't far away)? Or how do people think parts of Asia and LatAm, not to mention Africa, will fare in an extended lockdown? And yes, personally I happen to care about that too.
This is the only way to slow down the infection rates. There is no other way. These measures are temporary. The more disciplined we are now, the less time we'll have to spend in a lockdown.
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