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  #6021  
Old 02.04.2020, 16:24
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Re: Coronavirus

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Again, OPINION!

Tell the above moral argument that to the 6.6m unemployed only in the US that they have no means of feeding their families TODAY because someone is extrapolating in excel a FUTURE highly improbable implosion.

https://www.ft.com/content/a5847177-...0-747e6109cb7d
What's the alternative?

And their gov will have to open up their pockets and public funds to compensate those who are unemployed.

C'mon, even in our....ahem second world countries they started doing that.
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  #6022  
Old 02.04.2020, 16:25
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Re: Coronavirus

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As side note, I just drove to the nearby farm to buy some stuff. The farmer put some kirsch based hand disinfectant. The aroma is quite strong, as if your drank more than a few.

We have similar stuff at work, you smell like you just visited a distillery
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  #6023  
Old 02.04.2020, 16:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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We have similar stuff at work, you smell like you just visited a distillery
That's your story and you're sticking to it
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  #6024  
Old 02.04.2020, 16:40
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Re: Coronavirus

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From what I've seeing is that in the short term we are halting deaths due to hospital overload. In the long term there will be a lot of closed workplaces and bankrupt companies. Unemployment has a correlation with a higher mortality rate.

There is a balance to be found between short term and long term goals...
yup, it's a balancing act, the dance...
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  #6025  
Old 02.04.2020, 16:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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Switzerland: +1128 infected, +54 died
Netherlands: +1083 infected, +166 died

Assuming that both populations are equally healthy, would Swiss testing accuracy be much better?
No, they'll all be using effectively the same test methods. The rate of testing in different countries varies a lot, so comparisons such as that are largely meaningless unless you take into account the number of tests being performed, and on whom.
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  #6026  
Old 02.04.2020, 16:47
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Re: Coronavirus

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I never said I know, from the posts I made today I hope I was making that clear.
Those are the 2 arguments I'm seeing, and I like to see them discussed from both sides.

Grim it may be, morally questionable also. But so be it.
The thing is, the other side has no viable arguments. If you lift the latest restrictions you risk the infection of more people and the outcome is rather unknown. You worry about economy and businesses but how will economy survive without....people i.e. human resources? All experts agree that temporary lockdown and slowing down infection rates while recovery rates pick up it's the way to go.

Meantime new drugs and combinations of drugs are tested, and more we'll we know about treating the disease.

Seriously, getting cabin fever and giving up en masse only after a couple of weeks of quarantine?
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  #6027  
Old 02.04.2020, 16:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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No, they'll all be using effectively the same test methods. The rate of testing in different countries varies a lot, so comparisons such as that are largely meaningless unless you take into account the number of tests being performed, and on whom.
As does the assumption that one country‘s population is „as healthy as another‘s“
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  #6028  
Old 02.04.2020, 16:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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...What I'm trying to say is that the measures we are taking to have the best case scenario for mortality in the 6-18 months might have larger negative consequences for mortality in the timescale beyond that...
I'm sure smart guys at the ETH will estimate and calculate the odds and advise the government on what's best to do
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  #6029  
Old 02.04.2020, 16:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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Silly example:

A red plane with 10 passengers has crashed and 10 people died.
A blue plane with 100 passengers is still falling so nobody dead yet.

You: red planes cause more deaths.
You said it, very dumb example. Home scooling for 5 year olds?
Even children need the whole truth. In this case that the blue plane is hanging on huge parachute, of a size never seen before. The landing will be a lot different from the red plane.

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Again, OPINION!

Tell the above moral argument that to the 6.6m unemployed only in the US that they have no means of feeding their families TODAY because someone is extrapolating in excel a FUTURE highly improbable implosion.

https://www.ft.com/content/a5847177-...0-747e6109cb7d
please do remember this paper is behind a paywall.

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And you call what you post a fact?

6.6M is the number of people who applied for unemployment money, applying for unemployment money does not equal not having the means to feed the family.

Nice try tho....
Yes, in the US it very well may be.


What we're doing now is not possible in the long run. Who ever doesn't see that, is not taking in the full picture. If we can manage to pull this through for an other two weeks (April 19th is still not really around the corner), good for us. A country like Switzerland may survive this in a manner that nobody starves to death after. A country like the US who already neglects a big part of it's population in "normal" times or a country like Italy where struggling is what many people just have to do, both countries deep in depth long before all this started, may not.

I agree with the measurements taken here for the reasons they gave us: Slow it down, get the medical facilities up to par. Anybody who listened to the Bundesrat closely heard that this is not a long term solution.

Going back to normal will mean back to work, keep private meetings small. It will not mean 'fly off to see granny in the US after this terrible time' or celebrate one's birthday with extended family (I had mine last Saturday, it was fine). We'll see how the moralists will stick to that.

And yes, some people die sooner than they expected/desired. Due to an illness (contagious or not), being hit by a car, a plane crash .... all these things others don't give up because of it.
Every death is sad. Specially for the ones left behind. But let's not pretend, Corona is the only reason people die. And let's also not pretend, Corona is the only thing we can actually prevent people of dying from.

And if this thread is about let's all say the same thing and bash the ones who say something else - the thread is useless. It almost seems, the situation is not bad enough yet to stop this "I'm right, you're an idiot" notion.
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Last edited by curley; 02.04.2020 at 17:16. Reason: commas were not my thing today
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  #6030  
Old 02.04.2020, 17:03
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Re: Coronavirus

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The thing is, the other side has no viable arguments. If you lift the latest restrictions you risk the infection of more people and the outcome is rather unknown. You worry about economy and businesses but how will economy survive without....people i.e. human resources? All experts agree that temporary lockdown and slowing down infection rates while recovery rates pick up it's the way to go.

Meantime new drugs and combinations of drugs are tested, and more we'll we know about treating the disease.

Seriously, getting cabin fever and giving up en masse only after a couple of weeks of quarantine?
Economy and businesses already lost people - employees as well as customers who stay at home - and a part of it has not survived it - "after a couple or weeks of quarantine". Nothing to go back to.
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  #6031  
Old 02.04.2020, 17:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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You said it, very dumb example. Home scooling for 5 year olds?
Even children need the whole truth. In this case that the blue plane is hanging on huge parachute, of a size never seen before. The landing will be a lot different from the red plane.
Disinfectant is to wash your hands, not to drink a whole bottle early in the day.
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  #6032  
Old 02.04.2020, 17:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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I don't. Having halve of the 7.5 BILLION people under lockdown because of less than 50k deaths for 5 months is like shooting a mosquito with the full arsenal of the Pentagon.
most of those 50k deaths have occurred in the last few days and climbing fast
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  #6033  
Old 02.04.2020, 17:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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The thing is, the other side has no viable arguments. If you lift the latest restrictions you risk the infection of more people and the outcome is rather unknown. You worry about economy and businesses but how will economy survive without....people i.e. human resources? All experts agree that temporary lockdown and slowing down infection rates while recovery rates pick up it's the way to go.

Meantime new drugs and combinations of drugs are tested, and more we'll we know about treating the disease.

Seriously, getting cabin fever and giving up en masse only after a couple of weeks of quarantine?
You have judged them non viable. Yesterday the BBC touched on some of the points mentioned about long term effects.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51979654

I'm not saying open the lockdown, this is the second time I've mentioned this. I'm saying the lockdown should not go on so long as to disproportionally damage the future. You say all experts agree on a temporary lockdown, cool, do they all agree on keeping it for 3, 6, 9, 18 months?

Yes those businesses will need people. As shown by the figures the vast majority of people will not have died from the virus and will still need jobs.

If their goal is to prevent Coronavirus related deaths, then those experts are spot on. I'd like to hear from the economic experts, or the cancer experts, or all the other things which are currently on hold which could have a negative impact later.

Cabin fever hasn't kicked in yet, fear of being jobless in a collapsed industry has.
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  #6034  
Old 02.04.2020, 17:10
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Re: Coronavirus

The 'end restrictions' crowd on his thread seems to assume that the unemployed people out there are just itching to get back into the workforce where they can catch a deadly virus. No matter the future repercussions, people are not willingly going to risk their own personal health or that of their families for the sake of the economy, especially as the body count is rising exponentially.
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  #6035  
Old 02.04.2020, 17:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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Maybe have a look at what is happening in the US? 40% of hospitalised patients under 55. Yes, they're tending to survive (or at least are less likely to die than older people). But they need that hospital treatment to do so.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...icans-covid-19
Americans are unfortunately not a very healthy lot. Tons of people are on regular medication, a lot of highly overweight people, with diabetes, etc.
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  #6036  
Old 02.04.2020, 17:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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Economy and businesses already lost people - employees as well as customers who stay at home - and a part of it has not survived it - "after a couple or weeks of quarantine". Nothing to go back to.
As I said, for the next months there is NO alternative. These people will have to be compensated through unemployment funds or other social aids. We can all chip in via other channels, but I'm aware it can't be done for all.

After that, imagine how's like after a war. Yes, many will have nothing to go back to, but economy will start recovering. Luxury industries will not be in high demand, neither tourism nor other non-essential services. Sad, but we will see a shift in economy and that can't be prevented by having more people infected now or in the next months.
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  #6037  
Old 02.04.2020, 17:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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Disinfectant is to wash your hands, not to drink a whole bottle early in the day.
Well, this is exactly why it has been banned in some prisons / jails globally
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  #6038  
Old 02.04.2020, 17:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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As I said, for the next months there is NO alternative.

There is, controlled ramp up and increased protection over the high risk individuals.
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  #6039  
Old 02.04.2020, 17:24
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Re: Coronavirus

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You worry about economy and businesses but how will economy survive without....people i.e. human resources? ?
How will people survive without the economy?

The economy and the government don't exist outside any of us in some abstract vaccum. Easy to say "the government just needs pay some money to the people who lost their jobs". That's an enormously simplified view. The government is eventually all of us and if fewer people can pay into the system, there'll be fewer funds available to "just pay". While this may still work in Switzerland to an extent and for a while, it won't work everywhere. Matter of fact it won't work in most countries. It costs millions and billions every single day to keep a country on lockdown.

And there's no universal agreement that this was the way to go to begin with.

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There is, controlled ramp up and increased protection over the high risk individuals.
Been preaching that for weeks to no avail...

Last edited by Samaire13; 02.04.2020 at 17:37.
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  #6040  
Old 02.04.2020, 17:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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