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Old 24.02.2020, 19:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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Actually at the current reported rate of fatalities vs recoveries, it's 10% deathrate, which is rather huge. Much higher than the 0.3% rate of the annual winter flu.
Wrong.

Latest statistics at time of writing.
79554 confirmed
2628 deaths - 3.3%
25218 recovered - 31.7%

Your chances of dying is only deaths/(recovered+deaths) when all the confirmed have either died or recovered. Death rate is number of deaths / number of cases.

Based on all 72,314 cases of COVID-19 confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases in China as of February 11, a paper by the Chinese CCDC released on February 17 and published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology the death rate among people with no pre-existing conditions is 0.9%
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...-demographics/

Current estimate - various sources - is a bit higher. But 10% is just silly. (If it turns out to go that way, feel free to come back and taunt me )
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  #602  
Old 24.02.2020, 19:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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Wrong.

Latest statistics at time of writing.
79554 confirmed
2628 deaths - 3.3%
25218 recovered - 31.7%

Your chances of dying is only deaths/(recovered+deaths) when all the confirmed have either died or recovered. Death rate is number of deaths / number of cases.

Based on all 72,314 cases of COVID-19 confirmed, suspected, and asymptomatic cases in China as of February 11, a paper by the Chinese CCDC released on February 17 and published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology the death rate among people with no pre-existing conditions is 0.9%
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...-demographics/

Current estimate - various sources - is a bit higher. But 10% is just silly. (If it turns out to go that way, feel free to come back and taunt me )
As you post today the current death rate is deaths/(recovered+deaths) so from your numbers 2628/(25218 + 2628) = 2628/27846 = 9.4%.

The logic of this approach is we can only use the numbers we know, we do not know how the confirmed cases will turn out for those who are not yet classed as either recovered or dead.
When we do know more then this death rate will likely change but as we already know the results for around a third of the cases confirmed today then I would not expect a big change in the death rate.
Of course, hopefully, as they gain experience they will learn more about the best way to treat this virus and the recovery rate will improve.
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Old 24.02.2020, 20:19
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Re: Coronavirus

Thank you so much. I wasn't aware that they are referred to as FFP2 masks here. It looks like most online stores here are indeed sold out. I came across an article that said that regular surgical masks don't protect against Coronavirus (like you said) but that the respirator type (FFP2 / N95) can help, although I guess it can be rather difficult to breathe through them.
Thank you again.

https://www.livescience.com/face-mas...ronavirus.html

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FFP2 is roughly the European equivalent of N95. There are slight differences in how the standards are measured but from a function perspective for Corona virus at this point an FFP2 or FFP3 would be suitable. You may see FFP1 masks. These are the minimum level of protection and are basic dust and particle masks. They will not filter the virus.

That said, any effective use of masks is a separate discussion.
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Old 24.02.2020, 21:02
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Re: Coronavirus

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Thank you so much. I wasn't aware that they are referred to as FFP2 masks here. It looks like most online stores here are indeed sold out. I came across an article that said that regular surgical masks don't protect against Coronavirus (like you said) but that the respirator type (FFP2 / N95) can help, although I guess it can be rather difficult to breathe through them.
Thank you again.

https://www.livescience.com/face-mas...ronavirus.html
Yeah, unless you are very lucky you'll find none. Since my wife travels a lot we tried to find some, but Jumbo, Coop, Migros and such are all completely sold-out.

People should also be educated better, even FFP1 is sold out almost everywhere while stuffing a sock in your mouth even offers more protection. And the normal surgical masks even make it worse, they become wet due to you breathing meaning they wil contain and leak through everything they can pick up.
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Old 24.02.2020, 22:03
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Re: Coronavirus

Meanwhile, another expat forum's reaction to the Coronavirus in their country of residence:

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/114...e/16/#comments
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  #606  
Old 24.02.2020, 22:11
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Re: Coronavirus

Coronavirus pre-quarantine shopping list:

-Food and beer. Vitamins and booze.

-Meds if you need them, maybe even if you dont.

-Masks, gloves, goggles.

-Disinfectant sprays and soaps snd such

-Air purifier unit with HEPA filter and virus-killing UV-C light

-Handheld UVC light for sterilizing surfaces, clothing, etc.

-A new Parcheesi set

-Plague doctor outfit with integrated corpse prodder/flesh eating zombie thwarter/selfie stick
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  #607  
Old 24.02.2020, 22:16
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Re: Coronavirus

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Meanwhile, another expat forum's reaction to the Coronavirus in their country of residence:

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/114...e/16/#comments

Woah.
I admit, I'm finding it a bit difficult to know where the line is drawn, exactly, between being paranoid and being "wisely cautious" and well-prepared. With being so close now, in Italy, I'm beginning to lean more toward the latter.
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  #608  
Old 24.02.2020, 22:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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Coronavirus pre-quarantine shopping list:

-Food and beer. Vitamins and booze.

-Meds if you need them, maybe even if you dont.

-Masks, gloves, goggles.

-Disinfectant sprays and soaps snd such

-Air purifier unit with HEPA filter and virus-killing UV-C light

-Handheld UVC light for sterilizing surfaces, clothing, etc.

-A new Parcheesi set

-Plague doctor outfit with integrated corpse prodder/flesh eating zombie thwarter/selfie stick
I wonder what people would think if I wore a bubble suit to Migros tomorrow.
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  #609  
Old 24.02.2020, 22:31
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Re: Coronavirus

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I wonder what people would think if I wore a bubble suit to Migros tomorrow.
Who knows, but I choked on my too-hot coffee this morning and had a coughing fit that cleared my set of 4 seats on the train from any co-occupants.
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Old 24.02.2020, 22:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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As you post today the current death rate is deaths/(recovered+deaths) so from your numbers 2628/(25218 + 2628) = 2628/27846 = 9.4%.
Well done. You've made exactly the same error as Noth, because you fail to understand.

How you are calculating the death rate (which is normally understood as the chance of dying if you catch it) is WRONG.

The reason that it is wrong, as pointed out by myself and others is that you do not take into account those who have neither died nor recovered. But feel free to panic if you wish.
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Old 24.02.2020, 22:39
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Re: Coronavirus

Every flu (and the far less fatal or prevalent Coronavirus) guide suggests washing hands correctly and using hand sanitiser go a long way. And sneeze into your elbow not your hands etc

So given the other discussions on EF about washing hands after using the shitter, or hygiene generally on public transport, whether you have a mask is probably irrelevant.
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Old 24.02.2020, 23:27
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Re: Coronavirus

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You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus

Most cases are not life-threatening, which is also what makes the virus a historic challenge to contain.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...accine/607000/
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Old 24.02.2020, 23:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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Well done. You've made exactly the same error as Noth, because you fail to understand.

How you are calculating the death rate (which is normally understood as the chance of dying if you catch it) is WRONG.

The reason that it is wrong, as pointed out by myself and others is that you do not take into account those who have neither died nor recovered. But feel free to panic if you wish.
How can you take into account those who have neither died nor recovered? That is nonsense.

The death rate calculation is "deaths/(recovered+deaths)", you will notice "neither died nor recovered" are not part of this calculation.

Case fatality rate or case fatality ratio is the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time. This is used as a measure of comparing disease severity between different diseases.

Eventually, these measures will align once the epidemic stabilises or stops growing.
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Old 24.02.2020, 23:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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I just did a search online and yeah, I can't find anywhere in Switzerland that is selling N95 masks. There are some on ebay sold from the UK, but they're quite pricey and seem to be selling out very quickly.
Maybe I'm just being paranoid, but seeing today that so many cases are now in northern Italy, I confess... I'm feeling a bit freaked out. Not only due to the virus itself but also the thought of a lock down happening here as it is in some towns in Italy now. Has anyone here bought masks yet?
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Coronavirus pre-quarantine shopping list:

-Food and beer. Vitamins and booze.

-Meds if you need them, maybe even if you dont.

-Masks, gloves, goggles.

-Disinfectant sprays and soaps snd such

-Air purifier unit with HEPA filter and virus-killing UV-C light

-Handheld UVC light for sterilizing surfaces, clothing, etc.

-A new Parcheesi set

-Plague doctor outfit with integrated corpse prodder/flesh eating zombie thwarter/selfie stick
I googled UVC light after reading this, but some say it is actually not safe to use as it can cause damage to the skin and sight. Do you have a brand that you suggest? Thanks!
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Old 25.02.2020, 00:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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Woah.
I admit, I'm finding it a bit difficult to know where the line is drawn, exactly, between being paranoid and being "wisely cautious" and well-prepared. With being so close now, in Italy, I'm beginning to lean more toward the latter.
Whatever prep you feel comfortable with do it for yourself. we had panic buys here but that lasted only a few days. also as others have repeatedly mentioned here - a mask is only good if YOU yourself feel ill and do not want to pass it onto others. If you see something you feel you need in the shops - go ahead and purchase it but don't panic if you don't find what you want (ie. your masks)
practice good hygiene and remaining calm is the key. (trust me i have been learning alot since this outbreak)
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Old 25.02.2020, 00:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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I googled UVC light after reading this, but some say it is actually not safe to use as it can cause damage to the skin and sight. Do you have a brand that you suggest? Thanks!
No, i dont know any brands but search for 'desinfektionslampe kaufen'. I ordered a cheap one from pearl.ch. The air purifier i already had- the air moves past a uvc bulb inside the device.

As far as skin and eyes go - dont use it on yourself. Zap the neighbors with it.
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Old 25.02.2020, 01:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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I googled UVC light after reading this, but some say it is actually not safe to use as it can cause damage to the skin and sight. Do you have a brand that you suggest? Thanks!
As UV light, yes it can be damaging to the skin and eyes. There are safe ways to use it though and things to be aware of. If you spend four hours in a tanning bed or stare at the sun all day you’ll also have problems.

Any bulb or LED capable of emitting light in the 200-280 nm wavelength will be considered UV-C. They are popular with aquarium users. Some commercial ventilation systems use them as part of their filtration. It can also be used to sterilize water. Galaxus has some bulbs available if you want a quick browse.

In practicality, the germicidal properties are known , but it’s not like an instantaneous death ray. To be effective for COVID- you need the right mix of direct lighting, adequate output and exposure time. Hard or soft surfaces, material density, moisture content...that all factors into your application.

Just like the masks, UV-C can be useful but there are many conditions to consider.

Avoiding people, frequent hand washing, no face, nose, eyes, mouth touching, and strong hygene/disinfection will be the most effective measures.

Last edited by Rjellsch; 25.02.2020 at 01:55.
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Old 25.02.2020, 02:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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How can you take into account those who have neither died nor recovered? That is nonsense.

The death rate calculation is "deaths/(recovered+deaths)", you will notice "neither died nor recovered" are not part of this calculation.

Case fatality rate or case fatality ratio is the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time. This is used as a measure of comparing disease severity between different diseases.

Eventually, these measures will align once the epidemic stabilises or stops growing.
What is the average time needed for people to die?
What is the average time needed for people to be declared recovered?
What if recovering takes double the time compared to dying?
How big where the groups at the moment of the start of the averages of the current groups?

There is simply way to much unknown for us to do any calculation that makes sense, so as I said before any death rate calculation at this moment is pure nonsense.

We'll get proper numbers in the future, I see no way to contain this anymore the long incubation period, the amount of people who notice little to nothing when infected, the lack of testing and our mobility make this the ideal disease to spread all over the globe, the time needed to make, test and mass-produce a vaccin. I wouldn't be surprised if in summer we are talking tens of millions of people infected.

Last edited by EdwinNL; 25.02.2020 at 02:24.
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Old 25.02.2020, 02:11
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Re: Coronavirus

From what I’ve seen, Singapore seems to be very aware of their situation while managing to effectively contain and treat. The level of detail in their updates is impressive and I hope Switzerland will have equal information flow if necessary.

https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highligh...tion-confirmed

OTOH, if the situation there starts to deteriorate, it will not be a good sign.
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Old 25.02.2020, 08:03
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Re: Coronavirus

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What is the average time needed for people to die?
What is the average time needed for people to be declared recovered?
What if recovering takes double the time compared to dying?
How big where the groups at the moment of the start of the averages of the current groups?

There is simply way to much unknown for us to do any calculation that makes sense, so as I said before any death rate calculation at this moment is pure nonsense.

We'll get proper numbers in the future, I see no way to contain this anymore the long incubation period, the amount of people who notice little to nothing when infected, the lack of testing and our mobility make this the ideal disease to spread all over the globe, the time needed to make, test and mass-produce a vaccin. I wouldn't be surprised if in summer we are talking tens of millions of people infected.
We now have the results of 27,846 cases (2628 dead and 25218 recovered) which is a substantial number so I would be surprised if the final ratio of dead to recovered is a lot different from this. Assuming the virus does not significantly mutate or a new cure is not found.
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