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  #6621  
Old 08.04.2020, 10:32
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Re: Coronavirus

There are two main factors that prevented major spread: border closure and population kept in their homes. EU leader criticized border closures, despite the fact that you can see now (even here in CH the relation to the level of infection in VD, TI and ZH and over the border travel), that those members who closed their borders the tightest or early (with applying confinement efficiently) have lowered the spread significantly.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ind...066.html%3famp
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  #6622  
Old 08.04.2020, 10:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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I don't know about Trump but yes, I do believe some people will profit from this pandemic. It is well known that some fortunes are made during wars, revolutions etc. i.e. "muddy" times.
We're talking about Trump. Let's keep the goalposts where they were. Obviously, loads of people will try to profit from the pandemic. Some ethically, some not. (How wicked am I to be monitoring stock movements more than usual?)

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For some it's their "raison d'être".
Yes, billionaires like to make money but you don't do it, as a President, by having a ton of shares bought on your behalf, then ramping up the price by pretending that the company's products will solve a global pandemic. In fact, such a transparent, hopeless ruse is a very short route towards losing your power and much of your money. I can't stand Trump, I think he's a shameless idiot, but even he wouldn't be that stupid.
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  #6623  
Old 08.04.2020, 10:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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https://www.ft.com/content/f94725c8-...6-2e046ae78e95

But the ERC Scientific Council, its governing body, unanimously rejected the idea, he said, on the grounds that its remit allows it only to fund“bottom-up” research proposed by scientists, rather than larger “top-down” programmes with objectives set by EU leaders.

“I argued that this was not the time for scientific governance to worry excessively about the subtleties of the distinctions between bottom-up versus top-down research,” said Prof Ferrari, who spent much of his career as a prominent cancer researcher in the US.
A quick review of the bottom-up VS top-down approach https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Top-do...ttom-up_design

I agree with the ERC council. Leave the current research programs as they are. In a few months the virus will be forgotten, meanwhile other research programs can be seriously affected.

If someone wants to do firefighting, there are other positions to do it...such as the largely despised politicians/EU leader positions.
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Old 08.04.2020, 10:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yes, billionaires like to make money but you don't do it, as a President, by having a ton of shares bought on your behalf, then ramping up the price by pretending that the company's products will solve a global pandemic. In fact, such a transparent, hopeless ruse is a very short route towards losing your power and much of your money. I can't stand Trump, I think he's a shameless idiot, but even he wouldn't be that stupid.
Given Trump's proven history I would never, ever rule that our. although in this particular case I doubt it.

Here he has clearly caught on to a seriously flawed French research paper and is too egoistic to allow for the possibility of him ever being wrong.

I'm still having the evening G&T. Just in case.....
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  #6625  
Old 08.04.2020, 10:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yep. Empty hospitals, death rates way lower than projected, current estimates revised downwards...You're still in denial, that's ok, it will take some time for all of you worryer-s to come back to normal.
Just playing devils advocate but would it not be fair to say that we are only here because social distancing, isolation and public awareness played their part? Again we need a baseline of 'doing nothing' and 'business as usual' to understand whether or not we dodged a bullet.

Personally I think the stakes were too high to have just issued a few advisories and gotten on with our lives, even if the reaction was overblown.
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Old 08.04.2020, 10:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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Just playing devils advocate but would it not be fair to say that we are only here because social distancing, isolation and public awareness played their part? Again we need a baseline of 'doing nothing' and 'business as usual' to understand whether or not we dodged a bullet.

Personally I think the stakes were too high to have just issued a few advisories and gotten on with our lives, even if the reaction was overblown.
Good point, although at the weekend I saw plenty of grill parties going on out and about and social distancing didn't seem to be high on many people's agenda!

I also wonder how much population density plays a role as well as local customs. For example in Japan, where physical contact isn't the norm there has been (so far) very little spread of the virus. In the UK, the highest proportion of infections/deaths has been in London, the most densely populated city.
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  #6627  
Old 08.04.2020, 11:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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Good point, although at the weekend I saw plenty of grill parties going on out and about and social distancing didn't seem to be high on many people's agenda!

I also wonder how much population density plays a role as well as local customs. For example in Japan, where physical contact isn't the norm there has been (so far) very little spread of the virus. In the UK, the highest proportion of infections/deaths has been in London, the most densely populated city.
I did not feel the UK to be particularly...handsy, in any way, reserved, rather. But the measures were not taken seriously in the UK, I think. Asia (except China who hid the spread) is used to the drill and discipline with the other coronavirus that was there. North Korea is giving no numbers, I wonder.
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  #6628  
Old 08.04.2020, 11:16
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Re: Coronavirus

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Good point, although at the weekend I saw plenty of grill parties going on out and about and social distancing didn't seem to be high on many people's agenda!

I also wonder how much population density plays a role as well as local customs. For example in Japan, where physical contact isn't the norm there has been (so far) very little spread of the virus. In the UK, the highest proportion of infections/deaths has been in London, the most densely populated city.
You might want to update yourself on Japan..

Not testing hasn't worked out well for them. Neither did it for the UK, Sweden, the US..
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  #6629  
Old 08.04.2020, 11:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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You might want to update yourself on Japan..

Not testing hasn't worked out well for them. Neither did it for the UK, Sweden, the US..
93 dead out of a country of 125 million is pretty good IMO.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/japan/
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  #6630  
Old 08.04.2020, 11:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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93 dead out of a country of 125 million is pretty good IMO.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/japan/
Let's come back to that figure in about 3 weeks.
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  #6631  
Old 08.04.2020, 11:37
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Re: Coronavirus

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Let's come back to that figure in about 3 weeks.
Which is what you've been saying for one month
Feels like Waiting for Godot
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  #6632  
Old 08.04.2020, 12:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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93 dead out of a country of 125 million is pretty good IMO.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/japan/
PM Abe is such a drama queen...

Abe said there had been a "rapid increase in cases with unidentified infection paths, and medical services are also under pressure." The country's total number of coronavirus cases has surged past 4,000.

"If infections continue to spread at this pace, 10,000 people will have the virus two weeks from now and more than 80,000 people a month from now," the prime minister said.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Co...e-of-emergency
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  #6633  
Old 08.04.2020, 12:00
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Re: Coronavirus

Not testing anyone who died is a great way to keep the numbers down

I guess they just quarantine half their country because they got no issue
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  #6634  
Old 08.04.2020, 12:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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Sanity gradually replacing alarmism. Both the WHO and Ferrari have been promulgating selective data samples and grossly overestimated extrapolations to drive us to this point. Luckily, the data coming through is confronting them and they are now facing the music. Just notice the significantly reduced projections in the US. They are not surprisingly called "dramatic reduction"

https://www.nationalreview.com/corne...r-projections/
"National Review was founded in 1955 by William F. Buckley Jr. as a magazine of conservative opinion. The magazine has since defined the modern conservative movement and enjoys the broadest allegiance among American conservatives."

What a surprise.
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Old 08.04.2020, 12:25
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According to estimates by Forbes magazine, Trump is already over a billion down due to the coronavirus impact on his business.
I didn't realise he even had a billion. He must be near insolvent.
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  #6636  
Old 08.04.2020, 12:29
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Re: Coronavirus

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Feels like Waiting for Godot
Aww....have seen this play 5 times when I was in highschool. 5 times! It was the cheapest distraction my friends and I could afford. Anyone could afford. I miss theatre. How I miss all those things.
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  #6637  
Old 08.04.2020, 12:40
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Re: Coronavirus

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So in Trump logic: the US-paid WHO focused on China only. US immediately took appropriate measures but other countries didn't, so now US is the most affected country - despite the US' exemplary behavior.
I expect Trump fans will ignore
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On 30 January 2020, the WHO Director-General declared the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak a public health emergency of international concern.
Source
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  #6638  
Old 08.04.2020, 12:40
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Re: Coronavirus

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While the new infected numbers in Switzerland are falling for 3 days in a row (even with increased testing), all those waiting for the wave of critical patients and overloaded hospitals, luckily have been wrong.

At the moment, Swiss doctors are going on unemployment because they have nothing else to do

What a paradox:

- 30% less patients than usual
- Utilization below 30%

https://www.20min.ch/schweiz/news/st...aeler-28949526

For 3 weeks we've been "10 days behind Italy". When can we finally say that the peak has passed?
The peak (whether that be new cases, total active cases, new deaths) has very clearly passed, despite the rather bizzare comments by the SPD health minister. To be charitable perhaps he is simply trying to encourage strict compliance over Easter in order that we can get out of the lockdown ASAP.

We are at a similar stage to Italy, if anything a day or two infront. Their peak for new cases was 21 March, ours was 20 March. Our recent number of new cases have been around 40% of the peak numbers, whilst Italy is at more like 50%.

It's only sensible that the hospitals have created capacity for a worse case scenario than what we've seen, and that there is accordingly some underutilisation. Logic would dictate that there's a backlog that sooner or later will have to be filled.
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Old 08.04.2020, 12:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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I expect Trump fans will ignore


Source
It is probably the same time WHO congratulated China on confinement, aka silencing and persecuting doctors, scientists and directors of hospitals and welding people in their homes.

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The peak (whether that be new cases, total active cases, new deaths) has very clearly passed, despite the rather bizzare comments by the SPD health minister. To be charitable perhaps he is simply trying to encourage strict compliance over Easter in order that we can get out of the lockdown ASAP.

We are at a similar stage to Italy, if anything a day or two infront. Their peak for new cases was 21 March, ours was 20 March. Our recent number of new cases have been around 40% of the peak numbers, whilst Italy is at more like 50%.
All it take is the Easter weekend of hanging out and the numbers would turn in a week. I think Swiss know that where we are now took weeks, but can be gone too fast if discipline relaxes now.

CZ gov published that they stopped uncontrolled spread, Ro is around 1. Expecting 10 600 sick at the end of April, they are planning to loosen up the measures starting next week. Masks and social distancing is planned for months on. I honestly do not think they should publish these figures, though, the sudden glee will have people go savage and party hard It is spring time.
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  #6640  
Old 08.04.2020, 12:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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That's how Oskar Schindler got rich. But he was completely crap at making money in peace time.
I'd be looking more towards the likes of Siemens and Hugo Boss.
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