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  #6641  
Old 08.04.2020, 13:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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PM Abe is such a drama queen...

Abe said there had been a "rapid increase in cases with unidentified infection paths, and medical services are also under pressure." The country's total number of coronavirus cases has surged past 4,000.

"If infections continue to spread at this pace, 10,000 people will have the virus two weeks from now and more than 80,000 people a month from now," the prime minister said.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Co...e-of-emergency
Prime Minister Abe isn't a drama queen, the fact of the matter is that until this point in time, the number of deaths from Coronavirus in Japan have been very low.

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Let's come back to that figure in about 3 weeks.
Perhaps, I still doubt they'll match the figures in Europe. The virus has been in Japan longer than it has here, what we're seeing now appears to be a second wave which could make lifting of the current lock down elsewhere risky.
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  #6642  
Old 08.04.2020, 14:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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I'd be looking more towards the likes of Siemens and Hugo Boss.
There is a huge difference between smartly doing business during times of chaos and criminal business, like some big German companies in WWII.
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  #6643  
Old 08.04.2020, 14:07
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Re: Coronavirus

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I did not feel the UK to be particularly...handsy, in any way, reserved, rather. But the measures were not taken seriously in the UK, I think. Asia (except China who hid the spread) is used to the drill and discipline with the other coronavirus that was there. North Korea is giving no numbers, I wonder.
When all's done and dusted, I fully expect the UK to have the worst figures in Europe for a number of reasons. Population density, the number of people who ignored government advice to remain indoors, the inadequacy of the NHS healthcare system, high proportion of unhealthy people (Obesity and Diabetes) and the number of multi-generational households in the UKs high ethnic background population.
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  #6644  
Old 08.04.2020, 14:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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When all's done and dusted, I fully expect the UK to have the worst figures in Europe for a number of reasons. Population density, the number of people who ignored government advice to remain indoors, the inadequacy of the NHS healthcare system, high proportion of unhealthy people (Obesity and Diabetes) and the number of multi-generational households in the UKs high ethnic background population.
France is not doing well, and I am not sure if those reasons would apply there too. Germany is doing extremely well, in terms of death stats, last time I looked. Sweden is turning into a live social study experiment, I hope this is all it takes and we will all be proven wrong, seriously.
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  #6645  
Old 08.04.2020, 14:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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In the UK, the highest proportion of infections/deaths has been in London, the most densely populated city.
The city itself isn't densely populated and there's a secondary factor that is a cause for investigation, and the disproportionate impact of the virus on BME patients. This was very pronounced with the first hundred or so deaths, but has persisted and is being linked by some health professional voices to vitamin D deficiency in BME patients living in northern countries. It's a known risk factor in respiratory tract infections https://www.bmj.com/content/356/bmj.i6583.long When you look at the specific areas of London that have the highest number of cases, they gtend to have a high proportion of BME residents, and Barnet, with it's long standing Jewish community, is also on the list of areas with the most cases.
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  #6646  
Old 08.04.2020, 14:22
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Re: Coronavirus

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The city itself isn't densely populated and there's a secondary factor that is a cause for investigation, and the disproportionate impact of the virus on BME patients. This was very pronounced with the first hundred or so deaths, but has persisted and is being linked by some health professional voices to vitamin D deficiency in BME patients living in northern countries. It's a known risk factor in respiratory tract infections https://www.bmj.com/content/356/bmj.i6583.long When you look at the specific areas of London that have the highest number of cases, they gtend to have a high proportion of BME residents, and Barnet, with it's long standing Jewish community, is also on the list of areas with the most cases.
Another reason for that is multi generational households and religious gatherings. Cultural norms also have an impact on how the virus is spread. BME also more likely to suffer from diabetes. Black people are also more likely to be overweight in the UK.

https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures....-adults/latest
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Old 08.04.2020, 14:31
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Re: Coronavirus

https://www.bbc.com/news/video_and_a...han-s-mistakes

I liked this messages.

Now, they mentioned that getting halal food was difficult, I can only imagine. I just had a debate with somebody whether ramadan will be more difficult or not during confinement.
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  #6648  
Old 08.04.2020, 14:35
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Re: Coronavirus



That sums the Japanese reaction to the Coronavirus up pretty much.

You don't have Coronavirus if you don't see/count/test it!
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  #6649  
Old 08.04.2020, 14:40
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Re: Coronavirus

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Another reason for that is multi generational households and religious gatherings. Cultural norms also have an impact on how the virus is spread. BME also more likely to suffer from diabetes. Black people are also more likely to be overweight in the UK.

https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures....-adults/latest
It's more complex than that. The stats pdf can be downloaded from this tweet from Wes Baker - 'Head of Financial Integration at NHS. Passionate about healthcare, financial modelling and analytics.' https://twitter.com/Wesbaker_1/statu...10078666678282
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  #6650  
Old 08.04.2020, 14:49
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Re: Coronavirus

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It's more complex than that. The stats pdf can be downloaded from this tweet from Wes Baker - 'Head of Financial Integration at NHS. Passionate about healthcare, financial modelling and analytics.' https://twitter.com/Wesbaker_1/statu...10078666678282
People with an agenda will be looking for some sort of conspiracy theory to exploit, but it is very likely to be that simple.
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  #6651  
Old 08.04.2020, 15:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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People with an agenda will be looking for some sort of conspiracy theory to exploit, but it is very likely to be that simple.
What conspiracy theory??? That pdf is solid data.
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  #6652  
Old 08.04.2020, 15:17
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Re: Coronavirus

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The city itself isn't densely populated and there's a secondary factor that is a cause for investigation, and the disproportionate impact of the virus on BME patients. This was very pronounced with the first hundred or so deaths, but has persisted and is being linked by some health professional voices to vitamin D deficiency in BME patients living in northern countries. It's a known risk factor in respiratory tract infections https://www.bmj.com/content/356/bmj.i6583.long When you look at the specific areas of London that have the highest number of cases, they gtend to have a high proportion of BME residents, and Barnet, with it's long standing Jewish community, is also on the list of areas with the most cases.
US also reporting higher number of cases and deaths among African Americans.

Of course there can be many reasons for this.
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Old 08.04.2020, 15:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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When all's done and dusted, I fully expect the UK to have the worst figures in Europe for a number of reasons. Population density, the number of people who ignored government advice to remain indoors, the inadequacy of the NHS healthcare system, high proportion of unhealthy people (Obesity and Diabetes) and the number of multi-generational households in the UKs high ethnic background population.
Don't forget the stress effect of Brexit on people's immune systems.
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Old 08.04.2020, 15:33
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Don't forget the stress effect of Brexit on people's immune systems.
Itd be interesting to see whether Brexit voting is associated with higher or lower deaths.

On one hand, Brexiteers are rather whiter than average, which is probably preventative, and they live in more rural areas which will be heavily preventative.

On the other hand, they are older, skew male and probably on average have higher risk factors (diabetes, obesity, heart issues etc. etc.).

The correlation between high obesity areas and brexit voting areas is strikingly good (at least when you take out the Scots lol)
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Old 08.04.2020, 15:48
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Re: Coronavirus

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When all's done and dusted, I fully expect the UK to have the worst figures in Europe for a number of reasons. Population density, the number of people who ignored government advice to remain indoors, the inadequacy of the NHS healthcare system, high proportion of unhealthy people (Obesity and Diabetes) and the number of multi-generational households in the UKs high ethnic background population.
I don't see the point in these speculations. Every single country in Europe, in fact the world, has taken different approaches at different times, based on circumstances and medical advice. With hindsight, for every country, we will be able to identify actions that turned out to be very beneficial, and very damaging. Not one single country, or government, on this planet wants this problem to endure, and everyone's doing the best they possibly can in a situation where frankly, no one knows exactly the best way of behaving.

When I look at Die Welt, or Le Monde, or NY Times, or ask my Swiss/Spanish/Italian friends how things are going, they ALL complain about the actions of their government, and 'if only we'd done X a week earlier, or not done X at that moment'. The truth is that until there's a vaccine, or a very reliable way to screen those who've already had the virus, we're all in the dark a bit, and living on hope and luck as much as good judgement.

As for the UK, who knows? There was a report out yesterday saying that the UK would come out worst in Europe, but the report authors themselves, when challenged, admitted later that the data they used for their analysis and estimates was inaccurate, and their extrapolations were shown to be faulty. Doesn't mean that the UK won't turn out to be worst but it's yet another illustration of everyone and his dog having a go at predicting the course of the pandemic based on 25% facts, 25% prejudice, 25% sticking a finger in the air, and 25% examining the tea leaves.
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  #6656  
Old 08.04.2020, 15:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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https://www.bbc.com/news/video_and_a...han-s-mistakes

I liked this messages.

Now, they mentioned that getting halal food was difficult, I can only imagine. I just had a debate with somebody whether ramadan will be more difficult or not during confinement.
Not had any difficulties getting Halal meat in the UK.

Don't see why this would effect Ramadan. In general during Ramadan you're not supposed to go out and do 'fun' things anyway. Families usually do go to one another to break their fast which hopefully won't go on.

The fasts will be a bit short as well so hopefully be easier in general
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Old 08.04.2020, 15:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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I've been openly suspicious from the start and have made no secret of that.

And when I read now even in Switzerland that half the hospitals are empty, that detected infections have increased very little day-to-day in the last 10 days, that doubling rates are now near the 20-day mark (meaning spread has slowed significantly and is even near what qualifies a complete stop), that there has been exactly zero excess mortality so far - yet even our politicians keep claiming the "peak has not arrived yet", and keep referring to an ominous wave the same way they've been referring to for a month yet it somehow never came - I can't help but feel confirmed in my suspicion.

I believe in the end mortality rates will have been extremely low except in certain areas where there was an unusual amount of infections, exacerbated in part by a weak or simply insufficient or ineffective healthcare system. And when that day comes, people will scramble to try to explain their reactions which were very obviously at the very least in part based on fear as well as peer or group pressure.

I understand it's difficult to make decisions if something you can't immediately explain comes your way. But it's now being politicized - in no way surprising of course - and that requires MUCH more critical, unemotional, nuanced dialogue.
Lockdown results continue to be very good, thanks to the Swiss Govt. for taking strong and early action.
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Old 08.04.2020, 15:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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Itd be interesting to see whether Brexit voting is associated with higher or lower deaths.

On one hand, Brexiteers are rather whiter than average, which is probably preventative, and they live in more rural areas which will be heavily preventative.

On the other hand, they are older, skew male and probably on average have higher risk factors (diabetes, obesity, heart issues etc. etc.).

The correlation between high obesity areas and brexit voting areas is strikingly good (at least when you take out the Scots lol)
It's not rocket science, and certainly nothing to do with race. There was a higher proportion of Brexit support among older voters, and low income voters, and both groups are more susceptible to the Coronavirus. No doubt some genius at some point will claim a causal link, but may have trouble explaining what crimes against the EU Twitterati were committed by older, poorer people in every other country in the world.

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Lockdown results continue to be very good, thanks to the Swiss Govt. for taking strong and early action.
I really hope so, but as I mentioned elsewhere, when I ventured out last week for the first time in 17 days, I was really astounded to see so many people wandering about as normal, including bus stops and shops. The car park at my local Lidl looked as full as any fairly busy period, so I gave the place a miss. Let's hope that at least the older demographic are self-isolating.
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Old 08.04.2020, 16:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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As for the UK, who knows? There was a report out yesterday saying that the UK would come out worst in Europe, but the report authors themselves, when challenged, admitted later that the data they used for their analysis and estimates was inaccurate, and their extrapolations were shown to be faulty. Doesn't mean that the UK won't turn out to be worst but it's yet another illustration of everyone and his dog having a go at predicting the course of the pandemic based on 25% facts, 25% prejudice, 25% sticking a finger in the air, and 25% examining the tea leaves.
If it's the report I looked at (in the press) earlier today it's definitely screwed up. Has Italy with about 20,000 deaths which, as they are already at 17,000 and still running at 600-odd a day, is highly unlikely.

UK numbers there are way OTT (although bear in mind the UK undercounts CV deaths - only hospital deaths are included). I would expect perhaps 30-40K if current measures are continued rather than the 80K forecast.
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Old 08.04.2020, 18:41
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Re: Coronavirus

No. 10 just announced Boris is improving and can now breathe without a ventilator.
I suppose they forgot that they said he did not need a ventilator?
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