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  #6721  
Old 09.04.2020, 08:22
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Re: Coronavirus

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Boris Johnson ...... he's at deaths door!
Is he now?
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  #6722  
Old 09.04.2020, 08:32
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Re: Coronavirus

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Is he now?
no. He's jumping out of his skin
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  #6723  
Old 09.04.2020, 09:09
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Re: Coronavirus

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I did not feel the UK to be particularly...handsy, in any way, reserved.
Being ‘handsy’ as you put it really has nothing to do with it.

Being crammed together like sardines in buses, trains and tube trains is probably the biggest factor in London. People are touching each other whether they like it or not.
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  #6724  
Old 09.04.2020, 09:23
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Re: Coronavirus

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People are touching each other whether they like it or not.
I bet they do.
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  #6725  
Old 09.04.2020, 09:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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What's incorrect are the occasional sharp decreases.
March 21 - 1'248
March 22 - 611
March 23 - 1'321

There are a couple of such data fluctuations. I go by worldometer. BAG doesn't release up to date data in my opinion.
https://www.worldometers.info/faq/

Who is Worldometers.info?

Worldometers.info is owned by Dadax, an independent company, and run by an international team of developers, researchers, and volunteers with the goal of making world statistics available in a thought-provoking and time relevant format to a wide audience around the world. We have no political, governmental, or corporate affiliation.

The absence or political, governmental or corporate affiliation sounds nice until you realize it means no liability and no accountability to anyone. And they are transparent about it, with CAPS AND ALL :

https://www.worldometers.info/licens...ms-conditions/

8. Disclaimer

TO THE EXTENT ALLOWED BY LOCAL LAW, Worldometer COUNTERS ARE PROVIDED TO YOU "AS IS" WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, WHETHER ORAL OR WRITTEN, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED. Worldometer SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ANY IMPLIED WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF MERCHANTABILITY, SATISFACTORY QUALITY, COMPLETENESS, ACCURACY, RELIABILITY, SUITABILITY OR AVAILABILITY, NON-INFRINGEMENT AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.

You understand that the main purpose of the provided real time statistics is to give an indicative visual representation of the speed, direction, and magnitude at which the data changes and not the accurate amount at any given time.

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No warranties and not the accurate amount at any given time. That seems clear to me.
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  #6726  
Old 09.04.2020, 09:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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The virus doesn't care how much money is in ones wallet
Oh but it does.

Economic deprivation correlates nicely to poorer diet, poorer healthcare, poorer living conditions that encourage virus spread, poorer environmental conditions....

All of which increases cases and causes worse average outcomes.
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  #6727  
Old 09.04.2020, 10:02
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Re: Coronavirus

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Oh but it does.

Economic deprivation correlates nicely to poorer diet, poorer healthcare, poorer living conditions that encourage virus spread, poorer environmental conditions....

All of which increases cases and causes worse average outcomes.
Up to half a billion people could be pushed into poverty, according to Oxfam.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ty-oxfam-warns
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  #6728  
Old 09.04.2020, 10:03
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Re: Coronavirus

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Oh but it does.

Economic deprivation correlates nicely to poorer diet, poorer healthcare, poorer living conditions that encourage virus spread, poorer environmental conditions....

All of which increases cases and causes worse average outcomes.
Agreed, and to me this is obvious logic. Poorer + lower living standards and conditions (including overcrowding) + less access to healthcare = more negatively impacted by the virus, all things considered, than richer people.
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  #6729  
Old 09.04.2020, 10:04
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Re: Coronavirus

So, it is official, CZ is loosening up the coro-measures (draconian, as it was described by Western media before they followed the same regimen), put in place at the beginning of March.

The DIY stores and bike stores get opened 1st (low customer service contact), starting the Easter weekend. It is a pilot measure and it keeps being under the epidemiological math modelling surveillance. The whole place is ready to revert quickly to a complete shut down. There have been to this date 5335 infected Czechs, 104 deaths. Little over 200 recovered cases (which is my mind isn't a large number at all). ICU beds have some free occupancy, it is offered to countries who are in deep....that. CZ is a poor country, we do not have real means to fight this mofo thing in terms of throwing money at it or last minute purchases of ventilators or gear but since science and edu is cheap or free there, the whole place is quite autonomous and have been in making decisions in order to attack the crisis in a reasonable way.

So, there is a light at the end of this tunnel, I am sure other places will follow the same path as soon as their curve flattens a bit. The stores still keep a special window for elderly customers. Nursing homes, hospitals in general and palliative care are sealed off from visitors. Individual care for elderly/sick at home is on a strict sterile routine, the people who take care of them get checked. Sports are now authorized outside (masks still obligatory), running and cycling now without a mask. People are still making and sterilizing masks made at home. There is a beauty contest for the ugliest mask out there. Landlords are verboten from evicting renters till the end of the year and schools stay closed. Czech TV have started broadcasting national edu program on their channel every day since the beginning of March, with school rings, different teachers, different subjects and grades, etc. Individual schools have topped it with individual care per each student. The borders keep shut and I fear they will be, at least till the end of the year. Capital city and North is quite affected, due to previous international travel. There is no shortage of anything in the stores, except yeasts (huh). Who would have guessed that it beats the toilet paper. 3000 fewer criminal acts committed (Jan-Mar) than last year.

Anyways, that is the MO. I wonder what other countries will do differently. So far, no data tracking in CZ like they do in S. Korea. Danemark is opening schools after Easter looks like, Austria opening hobby stores, gardening centers and all small stores (up to 400 squared meters), masks now demanded in public transport there too (it was just in stores before).
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Last edited by MusicChick; 09.04.2020 at 16:15.
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  #6730  
Old 09.04.2020, 10:07
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Re: Coronavirus

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It is not an error, it is a different method of counting. Worldometer counts how many cases got confirmed today by Swiss cantonal authorities regardless of the reference lab which is their higher number, Swiss federal government only counts them as today if they have been confirmed by Geneva today.

How often does this have to be explained in this topic?
Further, the BAG lists cases according to the date of testing, Worldometer simply by whenever the data turned up. neither is perfect but the BAG method is significantly better imo - however it does mean you cannot really look at the last couple of days in their graph as there will be tests still under way. Look at the BAG for yesterday (Thursday) on this coming Saturday and you should get a decent idea.

The headline figure the BAG announce is the number of confirmed cases for the day btw. But the BAG graph will show the more accurate progress.
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  #6731  
Old 09.04.2020, 10:08
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Re: Coronavirus

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Oh but it does.

Economic deprivation correlates nicely to poorer diet, poorer healthcare, poorer living conditions that encourage virus spread, poorer environmental conditions....

All of which increases cases and causes worse average outcomes.
Yes, when you put it like this you're right. This doesn't however explain why reason why the BAME population is disproportionately represented in the Corona statistics.
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  #6732  
Old 09.04.2020, 10:16
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Re: Coronavirus

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Landlords are verboten from evicting renters till the end of the year and schools stay closed. Czech TV have started broadcasting national edu program on their channel every day since the beginning of March, with school rings, different teachers, different subjects and grades, etc. Individual schools have topped it with individual care per each student. The borders keep shut and I fear they will be, at least till the end of the year. Capital city and North is quite affected, due to previous international travel. There is no shortage of anything in the stores, except yeasts (huh). Who would have guessed that it beats the toilet paper.
.
Yes, broadcasting national education programmes is done back home too since March. Also privately by teachers, online. It has been done even before, for kids whose parents cannot afford extra private tuition for various subjects when there are exams. As always, those who want to learn, will learn....
The syndicates are asking the gov, among other things, to freeze prices for food and medicines and to maintain workers' incomes. They adopted some measures of social protection and are working on some more now. I really hope there will be no profiteers from this mess.
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  #6733  
Old 09.04.2020, 10:24
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yes, when you put it like this you're right. This doesn't however explain why reason why the BAME population is disproportionately represented in the Corona statistics.
Anytime I am in the US I get shocked how little of international news get on American media. I would throw my uneducated guess on demographic stats - that some people knew what was going on in China because they have their sources (time, access to resources) and hence quickly adopted the imposed measures, because they understood them without waiting for top-down instructions? Did not wait for their state to authorise, or president to say to be cautious, etc. Just a wild guess?
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Old 09.04.2020, 10:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yes, when you put it like this you're right. This doesn't however explain why reason why the BAME population is disproportionately represented in the Corona statistics.
There's a couple of complicators such as higher diabetes incidence or (in the UK) much higher proportion of BME people in the NHS (40% of the NHS workforce apparently)but on the whole yes, it does explain it.
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  #6735  
Old 09.04.2020, 10:38
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Re: Coronavirus



Based on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus the figure look grim with a staggering 21% death rate.

But if we could move this forward 2 weeks if we say that:

- All the mild condition case recover
- All the serious/critical cases die


Then we add the 'a' figures to 'x' and the 'b' figures to 'y'. At that stage Closed Cases would be:

x = 1,382,855
y = 136,716
z = 1,591,571

This would mean the death rate would be 8.59% (136,716/1,591,571). Not 21%.

Now, add to this that not all Serious/Critical will die and that the 'Active Cases' are only those tested and there are VERY conservatively a minimum double that who have a mild form at home and are self-isolating. (I know of two households in the UK and 1 in Switzerland in this situation.)

This would bring 'x' to 2,765,710 conservatively.
And if 20% of 'b' recover this figure would be 38,533

The resulting death rate of all age groups would be 1.4%.

I feel it is likely the asymptomatic (no symptoms - rated at 80% in China(!)) and untested cases would raise the figure for Recovered to well below 1%.

Applying the known figures for Switzerland
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...y/switzerland/
we have:

23,280 known cases
895 deaths
9,800 recovered.

Thus a Swiss death rate of 9% (895/9,800)

If the criteria that reduced the global figure of 21% is applied to the Swiss figures we get:

9% x 1.4/21 = 0.6%

These are conservative figures and the age range of deaths and pre-existing conditions have not been considered.

...or are all my conclusions tosh??
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  #6736  
Old 09.04.2020, 10:40
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The virus doesn't care how much money is in ones wallet
I'm well aware. I was replying to your false assertion about the most common factors for obesity in the UK, not Covid-19.

However, having read Baboon's posts, he's right about poverty being a factor.

Why are you so het up about BAME figures?
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Old 09.04.2020, 10:42
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I bet they do.
What an idiotic response. Further proof your "knowledge" of the UK is ... not knowledge.
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  #6738  
Old 09.04.2020, 10:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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...or are all my conclusions tosh??
Nope. Plus CH numbers are good to use for your exercise, it still tests the most in the world it seems to me.
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  #6739  
Old 09.04.2020, 10:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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No warranties and not the accurate amount at any given time. That seems clear to me.
Of course they [worldometers.info] are not an official source, but if you click on each country and scroll down you can see a list of the updates and the daily sources for the figures. As I understand it they take the date when the source is made available.

Last edited by youcannotbeserious; 09.04.2020 at 11:17. Reason: Add reference to worldometers.info
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Old 09.04.2020, 11:08
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Re: Coronavirus

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.......or are all my conclusions tosh??
Nice work. Couple of comments occur immediately

China silent cases is now estimated at 18% - 31% (found that in the Guardian's ticker at 08:53 so won't link as it would stop working in a few hours). Although many/most other countries are undercounting these more!

Your 100% mortality for current severe cases is too high...maybe 50% would be more appropriate. Although against that some of today's mild cases will become serious...

Doesn't affect your result but closed cases are almost certainly undercounted as well as for the most part they don't test these and just assume closed after a certain amount of time - the reality in most cases is that they are better faster.

Of those first 2 points, one would increase your result, the other decrease. Probably roughly a wash!

Afterthought - your figure for CH is probably a little low. As we've tested more than most the number of unseen cases is probably a bit lower than average. Would estimate nearer 1% - 1½% personally.
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