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  #6781  
Old 09.04.2020, 16:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yes he is. He wouldn't be mad at all. I think he would be very touched.
Oks! I will pm you at the end of our Easter break, cca 3 wks! Awesome.

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  #6782  
Old 09.04.2020, 16:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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I still stick to my idea that regardless of the daily numbers, what counts is wether it's under control and manageable.. Are the hospitals flooded, do we have food, are bodies piling up in the street, do we have sudden mass poverty..

I think for the most part CH is managing this well on all fronts.. The economic aspect will take time to know but the for the rest, it's under control.

I was at my GP a couple of days ago (for a sore back, not covid) .. They told me that in our region at least (between Lausanne and Geneva) none of the medical facilities are near to capacity, they have ample supplies, plenty of space, no concerns and it's improving.

Be optimistic, I think we'll see a staggered return to normality by end of the month.
This. The world was shut down to prevent collapses of healthcare systems. Beyond that, there is no danger to the massive majority of people. If some folks decide to lock themselves in for months to come, that's their decision. At the aggregate level it will no longer be necessary, perhaps with the exception of some hotspots. It's also plain naive to believe this thing just got here 5 weeks ago (it was likely at least 3 months or more) or that it will disappear entirely just because you locked everyone in for a while - we will simply have to live with it going forward, just like we live with many other viruses we pay zero attention to as they present next to no danger to the huge majority. It will be more important now to understand how the virus "behaves" in real settings, instead of those artificial ones that were created. Otherwise we will never learn enough to understand how to treat it appropriately.
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  #6783  
Old 09.04.2020, 17:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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This. The world was shut down to prevent collapses of healthcare systems. Beyond that, there is no danger to the massive majority of people. If some folks decide to lock themselves in for months to come, that's their decision. At the aggregate level it will no longer be necessary, perhaps with the exception of some hotspots. It's also plain naive to believe this thing just got here 5 weeks ago (it wadms likely at least 3 months or more) or that it will disappear entirely just because you locked everyone in for a while - we will simply have to live with ut going forward, just like we live with many other viruses we pay zero attention to. It wi be more important now to understand how the virus "behaves" in real settings, instead of those artificial ones that were created. Otherwise we will never learn enough to understand how to treat it appropriately.
....just don't expect a full return to normality for many months. Yes, most of the economy will open but to stop further waves of the disease there will still have to be a fair level of distancing.
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  #6784  
Old 09.04.2020, 17:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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Written on 4th March when there were less than 4,000 deaths and the epidemics in Europe were all at a very early stage. Completely overtaken by events and they would not reach the same conclusion now.

Agree: quote from here (released today) https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html
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European Mortality Bulletin, week 14, 2020

The latest pooled estimates from the EuroMOMO network show a steep increase in excess all-cause mortality overall for the participating European countries, related to the COVID-19 pandemic. This overall excess mortality is driven by a very substantial excess mortality in some countries, primarily seen in the age group of 65 years and above, but also in the age group of 15-64 years.
Which is very much consistent with the latest data for Switzerland. Status end of March.
The comment at the bottom (07.04.2020) refers to the day the data has been released, not observation period.
https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/en/home...ses-death.html
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Continuous registration of deaths

Periods of excess mortality can be identified from the weekly death figures. In week 13, up to and including 29 March, the number of deaths in Switzerland is above the expected normal level even among those under 65 years of age, and significantly above it among those aged 65 and over, an expression of the current pandemic. The FSO observes a further increase in the number of deaths in the last few days.

Last edited by Aliante; 09.04.2020 at 17:20. Reason: Adding references for info
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  #6785  
Old 09.04.2020, 17:23
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Re: Coronavirus

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They'll be queuing for a loooooong time - Greggs has been shut since 24 March.

https://www.greggs.co.uk/coronavirus
My mistake. It was Greenhalgh's.
https://www.greenhalghs.com/#
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  #6786  
Old 09.04.2020, 17:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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Written on 4th March when there were less than 4,000 deaths and the epidemics in Europe were all at a very early stage. Completely overtaken by events and they would not reach the same conclusion now.
Has there been a new more recent study that comes to a different conclusion, or that's just your opinion?
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  #6787  
Old 09.04.2020, 17:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yes another study this time funded by the French government has published that the mortality rate of covid-19 is not different compared to other common colds etc

https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...24857920300972

Findings are very similar like the study done from Wuhan China

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7
Neither of these studies mentions the "common cold" which is not surprising as this is mostly caused by rhinoviruses, and only occasionally by coronaviruses which were the ones studied.

According to the Worldometer site of all the closed COV-19 cases worldwide, 21% are closed by death!

Name:  ClosedCaseDeath.jpg
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  #6788  
Old 09.04.2020, 17:37
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Re: Coronavirus

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Has there been a new more recent study that comes to a different conclusion, or that's just your opinion?
The numbers in that old study have been proven wrong by reality.

Now clearly it is your "job" to ignore this.
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Old 09.04.2020, 17:38
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Re: Coronavirus

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Who's "you".

Makes no sense to take the name of the quoted out of quotes. Why do you do that? Not the first time I notice it.
having problems with the browser. I hit the "quote" button and only an empty text input box opens, so I've been manually copying and pasting the orig. text and writing the quote tags around it. pain in the neck. but sometimes it works, like now...
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  #6790  
Old 09.04.2020, 17:42
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Re: Coronavirus

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Neither of these studies mentions the "common cold" which is not surprising as this is mostly caused by rhinoviruses
Don't tell me the Chinese have been knocking up a Rhino Fried Rice as well as Sweet and Sour Bat?
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  #6791  
Old 09.04.2020, 17:51
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Re: Coronavirus

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Don't tell me the Chinese have been knocking up a Rhino Fried Rice as well as Sweet and Sour Bat?
What do you mean by „the Chinese“ :
As far as I‘m aware, we all live on one planet, and „the Chinese“ seem to have a rather low death rate compared to some other countries in this crisis.

Me personally, I prefer Szechuan dishes.
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  #6792  
Old 09.04.2020, 17:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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Neither of these studies mentions the "common cold" which is not surprising as this is mostly caused by rhinoviruses, and only occasionally by coronaviruses which were the ones studied.

According to the Worldometer site of all the closed COV-19 cases worldwide, 21% are closed by death!

Attachment 139191
Also the 2.5 million people who die from respiratory illness is roughly 6500 a day. Yesterday, 6500 people died from COVID-19 and that is with the entire world on lock-down, only a few months after it arrived in places like Europe and North America and while we are on a trend of exponential growth....

But sure, alarmism blah-blah-blah
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  #6793  
Old 09.04.2020, 17:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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What do you mean by „the Chinese“ :
The people from China. Who do you think I was talking about?

I'm sensing an onslaught of virtue signalling is brewing up.
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  #6794  
Old 09.04.2020, 17:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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The people from China. Who do you think I was talking about?

I'm sensing an onslaught of virtue signalling is brewing up.
No, maybe just a ridicule of Trump unless you also stop spouting crap
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  #6795  
Old 09.04.2020, 18:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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No, maybe just a ridicule of Trump unless you also stop spouting crap
Have you been afternoon drinking?
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  #6796  
Old 09.04.2020, 18:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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No, just planting, shadow tennis on the roof, WFH. like anyone else, and you?
Well the sun is over the yardarm, so I can commence.
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  #6797  
Old 09.04.2020, 18:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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Have you been afternoon drinking?
No, just planting, shadow tennis on the roof, WFH. like anyone else, and you?
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  #6798  
Old 09.04.2020, 18:36
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Re: Coronavirus

Could you, pholks, edit in a reasonable way so we don't get this back to the future dejavu feeling? Ta.
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Old 09.04.2020, 18:57
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Re: Coronavirus

Repatriation flights? Who pays for them- do the passengers contribute? A young British musician friend who has been working in India for months, realised things were getting tough- and he spent ALL HIS MONEY to get on the last flights from Goa/Bangalore to Mumbay, then to Amsterdam and back to Gatwick- 2 weeks ago. When he arrived back, NO checks, nothing- no instructions to self-isolate- (which he has done of his own accord). Now Brits on holiday in Goa and region and all over the world are being repatriated- and again, NO CHECKS and NO instructions. 2 others Indian + Austrian we repatriated to Germany then Austria last week- they were checked and given instructions to self-isolate.

A 4th musician friend, Spanish, is stuck in Goa and cannot get back to Spain - not sure even if that would be a good idea. Friends of friend got back on rescue flight from Madrid- a hot spot, and NO checks, NO instructions sheer madness.

Last edited by Odile; 09.04.2020 at 19:54.
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  #6800  
Old 09.04.2020, 20:07
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Re: Coronavirus

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Could you, pholks, edit in a reasonable way so we don't get this back to the future dejavu feeling? Ta.
Sorry
It‘s the iPad that makes me do it
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