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  #6901  
Old 10.04.2020, 22:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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You already posted several links that stated that lock-downs help prevent a lot of cases.

Oh and Switzerland also tested more than 3 times as much...

In short: Just stop your bull-shit.
He should compare the rate of deaths in the three neighbour countries with Sweden to see how high the Swedish death rate really is, comparing with Switzerland is cherry-picking; unless he is one of those who confuses Switzerland with Sweden.
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  #6902  
Old 10.04.2020, 22:16
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Re: Coronavirus

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Swedish numbers still look like an anomaly compared to the lock downed Switzerland. 4 weeks later, Swiss numbers are actually worse.

Switzerland - 116 deaths per 1M population
Sweden - 86 deaths per 1M population

Switzerland - 2836 infected per 1M population
Sweden - 959 infected per 1M population

For weeks people have been saying "wait until next week"

How many more weeks should we wait?

And Sweden is not exactly the centre of Europe like CH is. Its relatively isolated in itself
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  #6903  
Old 10.04.2020, 22:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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Of course. How many adults are now trying to complete their masters online? A fraction. The fact that it is a great way to work/learn/feed one's curiosity does not mean that it is predominantly used this way. Good luck to her!!
Maybe a small fraction of our lifetime, but she‘s worked f‘ing hard (and I‘ve worked f‘ing hard to enable this), and it‘s her last semester. She‘s fine actually, funnily enough she‘s planned it well that she only has to do her written thesis in the next months.

So we are not impacted (or we can work around it). But I just think that throw-away comments need to be thought about first. Especially when they come from people in respected professions like yours
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  #6904  
Old 10.04.2020, 22:24
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Re: Coronavirus

After 4 weeks Sweden still ranks 12th in deaths per 1M population, behind many countries that have been locked up completely for 4 weeks.

How come Swedish numbers don't show a spike? Swedish numbers are nothing out of the ordinary, even excellent given that they still have bars restaurants open and they have been living normally.

Or the wave is coming?
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  #6905  
Old 10.04.2020, 22:31
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Re: Coronavirus

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Swedish numbers still look like an anomaly compared to the lock downed Switzerland. 4 weeks later, Swiss numbers are actually worse.

Switzerland - 116 deaths per 1M population
Sweden - 86 deaths per 1M population

Switzerland - 2836 infected per 1M population
Sweden - 959 infected per 1M population

For weeks people have been saying "wait until next week"

How many more weeks should we wait?
Umm, you need to look at the curve. And the time of the first registered person in the country. And I think you will find, currently, that Switzerland is doing pretty damned well
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  #6906  
Old 10.04.2020, 22:32
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Re: Coronavirus

31 March:
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Sweden has 14 deaths per 1M, Denmark has 13, Switzerland has 41

It seems they are doing just fine
10 April:
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Swedish numbers still look like an anomaly compared to the lock downed Switzerland. 4 weeks later, Swiss numbers are actually worse.
Switzerland - 116 deaths per 1M population Sweden - 86 deaths per 1M population

Switzerland - 2836 infected per 1M population
Sweden - 959 infected per 1M population

For weeks people have been saying "wait until next week"

How many more weeks should we wait?
Let's see what happen after 11 days:

Sweden: 14 => 86 (+514%)
Denmark: 13 => 43 (+231%)
Switzerland: 41 => 116 (+160%)

Sweden did 2x worse than Denmark and 3x worse than Switzerland
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  #6907  
Old 10.04.2020, 22:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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How come Swedish numbers don't show a spike?
Over the years, there've been a lot of articles about Swedish people living alone, and dying alone. I sometimes wonder whether there'll be some people who become very ill, and possibly die alone at home, and it'll take a while for anyone to notice.

https://www.thelocal.se/20191119/man...er-three-years
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  #6908  
Old 10.04.2020, 23:30
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Re: Coronavirus

Sweden is now exponential, Switzerland's not. 'nuf said
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  #6909  
Old 10.04.2020, 23:30
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Re: Coronavirus

People in South Korea testing positive again.

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/south-k...again/45681724
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  #6910  
Old 10.04.2020, 23:57
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Re: Coronavirus

AI-based phone app developed by EPFL researchers to detect coronavirus from coughing sound.

https://actu.epfl.ch/news/a-new-app-...6fVIjkF9DNQqM8

I'm astonished by what can be achieved if we all join hands. Sadly it happens mostly when we are in crisis.
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  #6911  
Old 11.04.2020, 00:01
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Re: Coronavirus

Something stinks about closed cases in Sweden vs Denmark.

70% deaths in Sweden closed cases! It implies the number of recovered cases and active cases reported is far too low.

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  #6912  
Old 11.04.2020, 00:08
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Re: Coronavirus

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Something stinks about closed cases in Sweden vs Denmark.

70% deaths in Sweden closed cases! It implies the number of recovered cases and active cases reported is far too low.
A lot of regions in Sweden among which the most effected regions of Stockholm and Västra Götalands do not report recoveries so that is indeed to low, and Sweden has tested very little due to lack of tests so active cases is also way to low.

And now with good Friday, weekend and Eastern I'd take any newly released number in the next few days with a grain of salt anyway.

Last edited by EdwinNL; 11.04.2020 at 00:20.
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  #6913  
Old 11.04.2020, 00:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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After 4 weeks Sweden still ranks 12th in deaths per 1M population, behind many countries that have been locked up completely for 4 weeks.

How come Swedish numbers don't show a spike? Swedish numbers are nothing out of the ordinary, even excellent given that they still have bars restaurants open and they have been living normally.

Or the wave is coming?
Yeah and I hear in France, things aren't going so well despite having quite literally locked everyone behind completely closed doors for what, 5 weeks now?

And on the other end of the spectrum, TA (reputable enough) publishes this study from ETH (certainly very reputable): https://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/ansteck...b-809893127675 For anyone who understands German. Otherwise just look at the graph on reproduction rates which have been the same, give or take, and damn near 1 ever since BEFORE shutting anything down.

What the hell gives?

Bottom line will be: at best there was some correlation between various degrees of shut-/lockdown and reduced spread. At worst it will have made no difference to speak of. Absolutely no one can tell for sure at this stage.

So I will probably give up and just accept for myself what I've said all along: nobody knows shit.
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  #6914  
Old 11.04.2020, 00:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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Bottom line will be: at best there was some correlation between lockdown and reduced spread. At worst it will have made no difference. Absolutely no one can tell at this stage.

So I will probably give up at this stage and just accept what I've said all along: nobody knows shit.
Reducing amount of contactpoints reduces the spread of a virus.

It really does not get easier than that, if you after all the postings here still do not understand such than giving up might indeed be best.
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  #6915  
Old 11.04.2020, 00:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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I believe your statement regarding the genetic pool is incorrect. The UK has a more diverse pool with people intermingling from former colonies; whereas Australia doesn't necessarily have that particular influx of people from the Caribbean and African region, but they do have a slight Polynesian and Aboriginal presence and lately Asian as well.
I was reading about this the other night and apparently, one of the suspect factors is vitamin D deficiency. In the preliminary tests however, there's a peculiar aspect emerging. Whilst it appears that BAME in northern countries are twice as susceptible to covid-19 complications, mixed race patients have a lower incidence of complications than any racial group which isn't the result I would have expected to see because they're a group which are particularly vulnerable in other ways medically (e.g. stem cell donation, tissue match, etc)

I've been following this line of investigation because my OH has chronic vitamin D deficiancy, which is why I'm semi-shielding him and he hasn't left our apartment and garden for 5 weeks. Also noticing of the mixed race aspect because of the strategy for stem cell donation r.e. our late nephew.
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The same this is true, I believe in portions of Israel that are overcrowded and poorer - many of these areas are inhabited by very observant Jews. Is it religion or overall demographics. The thing that you have to do is to look at the demographics of those who die regardless of race/religion, etc.
British Jews are taking the matter very seriously because they account for approx. 0.45% of the population yet 2% of the fatalities in the UK.
https://www.jta.org/2020/03/31/globa...e-theories-why
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  #6916  
Old 11.04.2020, 00:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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British Jews are taking the matter very seriously because they account for approx. 0.45% of the population yet 2% of the fatalities in the UK.
https://www.jta.org/2020/03/31/globa...e-theories-why
Orthodox Jews very often care shit about law or viruses this regardless of the country they live in, same problem in New York, Belgium, Israel etc.. they still come together in large groups for their weddings and funerals.
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  #6917  
Old 11.04.2020, 00:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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AI-based phone app developed by EPFL researchers to detect coronavirus from coughing sound.

https://actu.epfl.ch/news/a-new-app-...6fVIjkF9DNQqM8

I'm astonished by what can be achieved if we all join hands. Sadly it happens mostly when we are in crisis.
The article says it has a 70% accuracy. But perhaps this will become more useful once they have collected the sounds of many more volunteer Covid patients. Their request is: if you've been tested positive, please send in a recording of your cough.

Coughvid uses artificial intelligence to distinguish between different types of coughs based on their sound. “The idea is not new. Doctors already listen to their patients’ coughs to diagnose whooping cough, asthma and pneumonia,” says Atienza.

Right now his team is collecting as much data as possible to train the app to distinguish between the coughs of people with COVID-19, healthy people, and people with other kinds of respiratory ailments. “We’ll release the app once we’ve accumulated enough data. It could take a few more weeks,” says Atienza. In the meantime, COVID-19 patients who would like to contribute to the development work can record their cough at https://coughvid.epfl.ch/ or on the Coughvid mobile app.
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  #6918  
Old 11.04.2020, 00:36
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Re: Coronavirus

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The question was whether numerical literacy automatically means being educated or granting it..
Numerical literacy is little to do with being educated or not, and a lot about apptitude. Said before on here... I had a trainee for hotel reception who was probably the most word dyslexic person I've known, and considering my OH, ex-husband and a previous boyfriend are dyslexic, I've seen it up close for 26yrs. However, she was incredibly switched on when it came to numbers, so I took the training material home and changed it all to a numerical system. 3 shifts later, she successfully completed her first solo night reception shift including all the end of day financial reporting.

In probably equal measure, I've know gifted people with degrees and more, who were hopeless with maths. It just never sank in with them or was particularly badly taught to them.
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  #6919  
Old 11.04.2020, 00:37
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Re: Coronavirus

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Reducing amount of contactpoints reduces the spread of a virus.

It really does not get easier than that, if you after all the postings here still do not understand such than giving up might indeed be best.
Thank you, as you’re aware, I’m not a complete moron.

However, since you appear to think I have about three brain cells, can you help me understand the France situation, to name one. If the logic is no contact=reduced spread with other factors being irrelevant, why has there been a very limited decline in new infections? Or strike that, new detected infections. Or why - apparently - has the reproduction rate - a fairly important measure - been roughly the same in Switzerland both before and now during the shutdown? One certainly would expect this to look different. And all this is a genuine request - I want to UNDERSTAND the full picture, rather than take every random “info” at face value, with no consideration of source or context.
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  #6920  
Old 11.04.2020, 00:41
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Re: Coronavirus

It would be interesting to know whether, in France, the more densely populated banlieue have been more or less affected, and whether the pattern is linked to employment that cannot be done at home, forcing the people into higher exposure.

I don't know for sure, but it could be possible that Switzerland has relatively fewer such areas than France. I haven't read up on it, more than cursorily, but did find this list interesting:
List of cities by population density.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...lation_density

If I've tallied up correctly, then in those top 58 most population-dense cities, only 19 are in Europe: 7 in France, 5 in Belgium, 3 in Greece, 3 in Spain and Monaco.

Last edited by doropfiz; 11.04.2020 at 00:53.
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