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  #7101  
Old 13.04.2020, 15:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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Re death toll. It's clearly too early to be sure, and will be until we've got some antibody testing but that's probably far too high.

For instance, Iceland which is at an advanced stage with almost no new cases is at 0.5%. Granted another death or two could come in, but they'll have missed a lot (possibly most) of the cases despite being pretty much the best equipped nation as regards testing.

Diamond Princess is a well tested mature and closed environment and ran at 1.5%. Obviously we have to bear in mind that's with cruise ship (I.e. elderly) demographics.

I'd expect it to be well under 1% in a demographically normal sample. Whether it turns to be as low as the 0.16% in China outside Hubei I'm not sure.
The 2% was if we just relied on herd immunity and nothing else. Reread what I said.
It's lower because of the measures put in place. Would have been lower still if our glorious leader wasn't such a tool.


You can expect whatever figure you like: no-one knows, is the frightening reality.
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  #7102  
Old 13.04.2020, 15:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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Italy has lost over 100 health care workers including 2 suicides.
God Bless them, but as usual in this panicky time the most important details about those health care workers is omitted by media (and later on tried to cover the same detail)

Here is the list of the 109 doctors that died from corona in Italy

You only see the date of death. Why is that?

Well, because most of these doctors were retired and well in their 70s and 80s. But the media hides that fact, because, let's face it, a 80 year old doctor that died is no news. But a doctor died from corona in Italy, now that is breaking news! We'll hide that he was retired for 20 years already!

Luckily the initial list was published with date of birth but later that was deleted. Here is a web archive from the same site days before the date of births was deleted.

For me, this is huge media hype and nothing else
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  #7103  
Old 13.04.2020, 15:31
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Re: Coronavirus

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The 2% was if we just relied on herd immunity and nothing else. Reread what I said.
It's lower because of the measures put in place. Would have been lower still if our glorious leader wasn't such a tool.


You can expect whatever figure you like: no-one knows, is the frightening reality.
You meant 2% if we took no preventive measures at all and people did not take it upon themselves to do the same? Ok I agree that is a complete unknown as opposed to an educated guess. It'd be absolutely awful and totally inhumane though.

Despite our disagreements about some things I do agree that Cummings has made a complete hash of this and caused a lot of deaths.

Last edited by jorido; 13.04.2020 at 15:44.
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Old 13.04.2020, 15:49
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Re: Coronavirus

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Re death toll. It's clearly too early to be sure, and will be until we've got some antibody testing but that's probably too high.

For instance, Iceland which is at an advanced stage with almost no new cases is at 0.5%. Granted another death or two could come in, but they'll have missed a lot (possibly most) of the cases despite being pretty much the best equipped nation as regards testing.

Diamond Princess is a well tested mature and closed environment and ran at 1.5%. Obviously we have to bear in mind that's with cruise ship (I.e. elderly) demographics.

I'd expect it to be well under 1% in a demographically normal sample. Whether it turns to be as low as the alleged 0.16% in China outside Hubei I do doubt. If I had to guess, maybe around 0.5, perhaps 0.7.
"Diamond Princess ....... ran at 1.5% ...... cruise ship (I.e. elderly) demographics."
You are ignoring the crew? Over 1,000 people.
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Old 13.04.2020, 16:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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"Diamond Princess ....... ran at 1.5% ...... cruise ship (I.e. elderly) demographics."
You are ignoring the crew? Over 1,000 people.
Good point, I hadn't realised those ships have such a large staff. With passengers out numbering crew heavily it probably still had a lot of elderly people compared to an average sample. Definitely worth looking into further. Perhaps my assumptions are outdated or just false.

Last edited by jorido; 13.04.2020 at 16:11.
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Old 13.04.2020, 16:17
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Re: Coronavirus

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Good point, I hadn't realised those ships have such a large staff. With passengers out numbering crew heavily it probably still had a lot of elderly people compared to an average sample. Definitely worth looking into further. Perhaps my assumptions are outdated or just false.
I remember having read that the average age of the Diamond Princess population was 58 yo, but I cannot tell if that was average age those who tested positive or globally

Link: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid...estimates.html

Last edited by youcannotbeserious; 13.04.2020 at 16:32. Reason: Adding link
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  #7107  
Old 13.04.2020, 16:24
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Re: Coronavirus

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Good point, I hadn't realised those ships have such a large staff. With passengers out numbering crew heavily it probably still had a lot of elderly people compared to an average sample. Definitely worth looking into further. Perhaps my assumptions are outdated or just false.
The line that I use has around 1000 staff to 2000 passengers. A lot of the new ships now have around 4000 - 5000 passengers to 2000 staff, but my experience is that a lot of large ships tend to have a younger clientele.

A dear friend of mine used to teach bridge on a couple of lines when they did their World Cruises - quite normal to lose around 20 odd passenger a voyage as the demographics on longer trips does tend to be elderly.
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  #7108  
Old 13.04.2020, 16:32
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Re: Coronavirus

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The line that I use has around 1000 staff to 2000 passengers. A lot of the new ships now have around 4000 - 5000 passengers to 2000 staff, but my experience is that a lot of large ships tend to have a younger clientele.

A dear friend of mine used to teach bridge on a couple of lines when they did their World Cruises - quite normal to lose around 20 odd passenger a voyage as the demographics on longer trips does tend to be elderly.
2000 staff must cost a fortune, is that the reason why cruises are so expensive?

I bet next rounds of cruises people will be asked to produce a health certificate. I tend to think that day cares, too, and schools, when a quick test of antibodies is available at GPs.

Thoughts?
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  #7109  
Old 13.04.2020, 16:47
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Re: Coronavirus

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Here is the list of the 109 doctors that died from corona in Italy...

...Here is a web archive from the same site days before the date of births was deleted.
The first list does, indeed, have the names of 109 medical staff.
The 2nd list only has the details of 50 of them, of which, 16 were not yet 65 years old. Without the details of all 109, it's a fallacy to claim that the majority of the 109 were above retirement age.

None of that detracts from the rapidly increasing number of medical staff deaths in the UK, the youngest of whom was 23.
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  #7110  
Old 13.04.2020, 16:51
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You meant 2% if we took no preventive measures at all and people did not take it upon themselves to do the same? Ok I agree that is a complete unknown as opposed to an educated guess. It'd be absolutely awful and totally inhumane though.

Despite our disagreements about some things I do agree that Cummings has made a complete hash of this and caused a lot of deaths.
Yep. That was the initial plan, I believe, hence Cheltenham going ahead. It was absolutely awful and i humane but, you know, money. Then realisation hit... and now we are where we are.

Ha. Cummings. The Uber Weasel.
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Old 13.04.2020, 16:57
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Re: Coronavirus

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God Bless them, but as usual in this panicky time the most important details about those health care workers is omitted by media (and later on tried to cover the same detail)

Here is the list of the 109 doctors that died from corona in Italy

You only see the date of death. Why is that?

Well, because most of these doctors were retired and well in their 70s and 80s. But the media hides that fact, because, let's face it, a 80 year old doctor that died is no news. But a doctor died from corona in Italy, now that is breaking news! We'll hide that he was retired for 20 years already!

Luckily the initial list was published with date of birth but later that was deleted. Here is a web archive from the same site days before the date of births was deleted.

For me, this is huge media hype and nothing else
Oh my...your not telling me the press would misrepresent facts to suit their own agenda?...even in best in class in oh so perfect Switzerland?

Last edited by Viclajina; 13.04.2020 at 16:58. Reason: Typo
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  #7112  
Old 13.04.2020, 16:57
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Re: Coronavirus

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I bet next rounds of cruises people will be asked to produce a health certificate.
People who work in travel tend to not go on cruises despite being offered them at rock bottom prices to fill their capacity. Last offer I had via one of the two main travel agents' travel agencies was £69 p.p. for a 10 day Western Med cruise inc. Casablanca (I booked a £35 p.n. HB Exec room on Lanzarote instead). Many of my colleagues, including a number of former cruise crew, wouldn't touch them because they're a sitting duck for a terrorist attack, never mind a pandemic.
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Old 13.04.2020, 16:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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People who work in travel tend to not go on cruises despite being offered them at rock bottom prices to fill their capacity. Last offer I had via one of the two main travel agents' travel agencies was £69 p.p. for a 10 day Western Med cruise inc. Casablanca (I booked a £35 p.n. HB Exec room on Lanzarote instead). Many of my colleagues, including a number of former cruise crew, wouldn't touch them because they're a sitting duck for a terrorist attack, never mind a pandemic.
I don't get how cruises are at all fun. You're basically paying to be held hostage for 10 days. With thousands of other folk who are probably mostly shouty.
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Old 13.04.2020, 17:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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I don't get how cruises are at all fun. You're basically paying to be held hostage for 10 days. With thousands of other folk who are probably mostly shouty.
This. I'm unlikely to die in a terrorist attack or in this pandemic but I'm guaranteed misery and chlostrophobia.
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Old 13.04.2020, 17:07
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Re: Coronavirus

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I don't get how cruises are at all fun. You're basically paying to be held hostage for 10 days. With thousands of other folk who are probably mostly shouty.
My mates worked the Alaska and west coast US cruises mostly. Rhodes to Piraeus on Blue Star ferries is my limit, but I thoroughly enjoy it because we're all sat in the open air at the stern getting hammered, playing cards and watching porpoises and dolphins following the ferry.
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Old 13.04.2020, 17:07
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Re: Coronavirus

I will go on a charity symphonic cruise when all this is over, so gladly accept that it will be a week of shouty singers.
Cruises with conferences sound great too, little distraction.

Just hope we don't get another pandemics in the meantime

Last edited by MusicChick; 13.04.2020 at 17:25.
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Old 13.04.2020, 17:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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2000 staff must cost a fortune, is that the reason why cruises are so expensive?

I bet next rounds of cruises people will be asked to produce a health certificate. I tend to think that day cares, too, and schools, when a quick test of antibodies is available at GPs.

Thoughts?
Actually the wages of the staff is very low. I have had many conversations over the years with them and to work on a ship is a wonderful job for them. They are given free food/accomodation and so with tips on top most of them send their salaries home and they literally look after the whole extended family too.

One steward told me that his 3 children are all educated privately and the competition for the jobs are fierce.

Usually when you embark you have to fill out a form stating if you have a cold or feel unwell - but I can't imagine anyone saying yes..I imagine that they might take temperatures in the future.
The cruise industry has suffered greatly and so many lines have ordered new ships so what will happen in the future goodness only knows.
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  #7118  
Old 13.04.2020, 17:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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I don't get how cruises are at all fun. You're basically paying to be held hostage for 10 days. With thousands of other folk who are probably mostly shouty.
I know a woman in her 80's that started going on cruises after her husband died, she had a great time.
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Old 13.04.2020, 17:18
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Re: Coronavirus

My SUNY director would always take her mom in her 90s on a cruise, twice a year. They always enjoyed it. I think it is a magnificent way to enjoy travel for people with reduced mobility.
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Old 13.04.2020, 17:28
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Re: Coronavirus

One cruise we went on - In the morning decided to sit with some other people for breakfast - a lovely elderly couple from Wales.
Long story short - it turned out that the lady had been friends with my husbands late father, and her brother and my FIL had flown together in WW11!

When we got back home she sent a wonderful picture of them both in front of an aircraft that they were in - a photo that none of my husbands family had ever seen or knew existed.

Sadly the lady has now passed away but what were the chances of sitting next to them with over 1900 people on board!

Got another tale of meeting people with links but will save that for another day..
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