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Old 14.04.2020, 01:48
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Re: Coronavirus

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It's been comprehensively shown that you don't need to restrict outside behaviour to get the disease under control
Where, and by whom? Source, please.
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Old 14.04.2020, 07:58
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Re: Coronavirus

As the numbers go down.CH

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Old 14.04.2020, 08:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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And he is so right - this is one of my huge worries- that the educational gap is growing by the day.
He also had the humanity, humility (yes surprising) and honesty to acknowledge he and his Government were not as well prepared as they should, that they made mistakes - unlike Johnson and his lot, and in particular Priti Patel.
You're referring to Macron I assume?
It's true, but opening schools right now is very risky. It's also true that all those families whose income was affected by the crisis have worse perspectives than getting the virus itself. In a way. If there are no adequate measures, not enough money from the govs. But I suspect in some countries those poor people I'm supposed to feel sorry about will sit on their arses and expect the gov to feed them, regardless of actually having where to work - food processing factories, agriculture etc. And I mean in countries like Italy, Spain, France etc. Wanna bet?

As for the rest...the British cannot be wrong, of course.
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Old 14.04.2020, 09:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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A sensible argument for lockdown:



or direct links to youtube: https://youtu.be/0ERi2cL730o
I like thunderf00t .. Quite a lot of good content!
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Old 14.04.2020, 09:37
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Re: Coronavirus

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As the numbers go down.CH

Attachment 139231
Hold your breath and stop the press.

Three facts:

Testing over the weekend was so far always considerably lower, and thus also the number of new cases.
We just had a 4 day extra long weekend.
There is an 2-4 day delay (in some cases even more) from swap taken till the result is published.

Here the number of positive testes by date when the swap was taken.
coronavirus-covid-weekend.png
From the FOPH/BAG Situationsbericht from 13 April 2020 https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home...rnational.html

Conclussions:
As the numbers are delayed one can not make a day to day interpretation but has to look at a whole week or more with a distance of at least four days to see a conclusive trend.

Predictions:
- We will have 2-3 day with considerable lower new published case.
- We will read press reports and forum posts which will laud this low numbers.
- We will see that less swaps were taken over the Easter weekend in the FOPH graphs at the end of this week.
- At the end of the week will will also see an increase of positive corona tests.
- At the end of the week we will read press reports and forum posts which will ask what has happened, why suddenly such spike in new cases
- We will also read posts/report which will contribute these increased numbers we will see at end of the week to lack of social distancing on the Easter weekend.

Explanations:
The increase of new cases which we will see at the end of the week is mostly due that we resumed normal weekday testing.
Adding to that there will also be more persons tested as the doctors offices were closed during Easter. All those will flock in to be tested today and tomorrow. If Easter really had an effect on the number of new cases can only be seen in two weeks or more.
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  #7146  
Old 14.04.2020, 09:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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I have no doubt that avoiding the lockdown will be better for the economy:
  1. the country can gain competitiveness towards other countries with lockdown
  2. the virus is mostly killing elderly and sick people, these are the one having a higher social cost for the country
At the same time I have no doubt that the measures taken by Switzerland are helping containing the disease.


I am not challenging the opinion "maybe this lockdown is too much, the price to pay from an economic point of view will be too high".
We might have more data in few years to better understand the impact of the actions taken today. As of today we still know too little.
At the end the conclusions might even be different depending how much you weight social values vs ethical values vs economical values.
We are in a kind of "Trolley problem" with many more variables and uncertainty here.

I am challenging the opinion "Sweden is doing very well in stopping the spread of the virus".
This is proven false by today's data. We already have this answer, no need to wait longer.

If you want to point out countries which are currently "doing good" in reducing the spread of the virus, Sweden in not one of them.
If I'd have to pick one today: Australia. There are probably many factors helping them: summer, it's an island far away from the "hot zones", early measures taken...
I don't believe Sweden has done a great job in reducing the spread of the virus, I think they've done a good job at assessing the risk it poses and acting accordingly. The fact that their numbers look good in relation to the rest of Europe is an unexpected bonus.

I was disheartened at the weekend to hear the Swedish PM performing a U-turn of sorts. With the numbers being so low, he should be pointing to that and the success that has been made of keeping the economy going.

This is the problem of short termism and politics in general. In spite of opinions like mine, there is still a huge majority of public support for the lockdowns. Politicians only see approval ratings and the next elections, so mostly ever take decisions based on that. It was also one of the reasons the UK government performed their U-turn and imposed a lockdown.

The irony being of course that when everyone is suffering and there is mass austerity imposed and tax rises for the next decade or more, many of the same people who called for the lockdowns will be complaining bitterly about their governments!!
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Old 14.04.2020, 10:22
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Re: Coronavirus

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I don't believe Sweden has done a great job in reducing the spread of the virus, I think they've done a good job at assessing the risk it poses and acting accordingly. The fact that their numbers look good in relation to the rest of Europe is an unexpected bonus.

I was disheartened at the weekend to hear the Swedish PM performing a U-turn of sorts. With the numbers being so low, he should be pointing to that and the success that has been made of keeping the economy going.

This is the problem of short termism and politics in general. In spite of opinions like mine, there is still a huge majority of public support for the lockdowns. Politicians only see approval ratings and the next elections, so mostly ever take decisions based on that. It was also one of the reasons the UK government performed their U-turn and imposed a lockdown.

The irony being of course that when everyone is suffering and there is mass austerity imposed and tax rises for the next decade or more, many of the same people who called for the lockdowns will be complaining bitterly about their governments!!
You claim Sweden looks good versus Europe?

Let us look at their three neighbouring countries
Sweden 91 Deaths/million
Finland 11
Norway 25
Denmark 49
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Old 14.04.2020, 10:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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You claim Sweden looks good versus Europe?

Let us look at their three neighbouring countries
Sweden 91 Deaths/million
Finland 11
Norway 25
Denmark 49
And by far the highest case fatality rate among their neighbors too, around 8.5% in Sweden vs. 2% for Norway, 1.9% for Finland and 4.5% for Denmark, which could potentially hint at a larger share of undetected cases in Sweden.
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Old 14.04.2020, 10:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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I like thunderf00t .. Quite a lot of good content!
I find him simplifying a bit in this vid. The reaction of his audience is interesting too, albeit tough, potentially ethically vs economically: he shouldn't only attribute economic loss to losing people who potentially contribute to gdp but also their impact on resources, benefits, exhausted health staff. He shouldn't forget that economic down turn and poverty kills too (crime, suicides, ..). The shut businesses wreck it for supply chains, too, lot of additional negative numbers. He factors in that one irresponsible spreader ruining it for all when securing essential services now without the irresponsible spreader already carries the high spread risk. He doesn't factor in false-negatives test results. He did not mentioned the fact that quarantine is buying us time for protective gear, test data, virus research and adaptation to new social distancing norms. He did not factor in the different economical impact of different deaths, unies opened exposes the society to risk losing its top knowledge due to their age brackets..etc. Those were also some of the arguments that we have had on EF too. He is also making it evident that what he calls G0ogle search censorship in a way is just a popularity algorithm, not based on any quality of content, etc. But we knew that. Somebody else in the comments pointed out that 2020 has become a year of political incorrectness, I feel pretty good about our freedom to discuss any scenario. Economic modelling criticism "When people are dead, they are dead for longer than 10 years" would make me laugh if they weren't so true. I think we risk being myopic in any sudden crisis management, imho..such is the nature of the risk in troubleshooting.
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Old 14.04.2020, 10:31
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Re: Coronavirus

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And by far the highest case fatality rate among their neighbors too, around 8.5% in Sweden vs. 2% for Norway, 1.9% for Finland and 4.5% for Denmark, which could potentially hint at a larger share of undetected cases in Sweden.
Of course it's worse, they didn't do anything! But that's the point, they didn't do anything and only 919 people have died there, whilst the country has remained open.
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Old 14.04.2020, 10:45
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Re: Coronavirus

After 1 month of normal life Sweden still ranks 12 in the world in the deaths per 1M. Sweden is behind countries that have had 1 month lock down like Switzerland and France.

After 1 month of disastrous predictions not materializing, I think it will be smooth sailing for Sweden from this moment on. If there was nothing abnormal during 1 month of normal life during full swing "epidemic" in Sweden there will be time in near future that we will ask the question if the lock down was a smart strategy...
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Old 14.04.2020, 10:58
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Re: Coronavirus

An incredibly argumentative Press Conference at the White House yesterday, over Trumps handling of the
Coronavirus outbreak and the measures taken in the United States.

Video of Trump taking questions over the Coronavirus outbreak in the United States
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Old 14.04.2020, 11:09
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Re: Coronavirus

I think a lot of the numbers give us simple 'black and white' impressions. For 'saving the world' of course the total number counts, but for how effective a country has been with it's population, I think a percentage is a more accurate measure. For example;

Italy has a population of 60.36 million and 159,516 infected. That's approximately 0.264% of the population.

Great Brexit land has a population of 66.65 million and 88,621 infected. That's approximately 0.133% of the population.

Make Trump great again land has a population of 328.2 million and 578,178 infected. That's approximately 0.176% of the population.

And the great Toblerone land ( ) has a population of 8.57 million and 25,688 infected. That's approximately 0.003 of the population.

So go Switzerland!
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Old 14.04.2020, 11:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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I think a lot of the numbers give us simple 'black and white' impressions. For 'saving the world' of course the total number counts, but for how effective a country has been with it's population, I think a percentage is a more accurate measure. For example;

Italy has a population of 60.36 million and 159,516 infected. That's approximately 0.264% of the population.

Great Brexit land has a population of 66.65 million and 88,621 infected. That's approximately 0.133% of the population.

Make Trump great again land has a population of 328.2 million and 578,178 infected. That's approximately 0.176% of the population.

And the great Toblerone land ( ) has a population of 8.57 million and 25,688 infected. That's approximately 0.003 of the population.

So go Switzerland!
We have no idea of infection no's as the population has not been tested, only a tiny percentage have been tested.
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Old 14.04.2020, 11:24
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Re: Coronavirus

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i think a lot of the numbers give us simple 'black and white' impressions. For 'saving the world' of course the total number counts, but for how effective a country has been with it's population, i think a percentage is a more accurate measure. For example;

italy has a population of 60.36 million and 159,516 infected. That's approximately 0.264% of the population.

Great brexit land has a population of 66.65 million and 88,621 infected. That's approximately 0.133% of the population.

Make trump great again land has a population of 328.2 million and 578,178 infected. That's approximately 0.176% of the population.

And the great toblerone land ( :d ) has a population of 8.57 million and 25,688 infected. That's approximately 0.003 of the population.

So go switzerland!

0.003 = 0.3% (not that those stats mean anything anyway)
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Old 14.04.2020, 11:25
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Re: Coronavirus

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We have no idea of infection no's as the population has not been tested, only a tiny percentage have been tested.
Exactly, some countries aren't able to test as much as other countries. This is why it's also dangerous to judge a country's performance based at this stage. For example, the reason Germany has had a lower death rate to France could simply be down to less people having been infected. The UK is seeing high death rates at the moment yet still has significant ICU bed capacity. What does it all mean? I don't know however I'm sure there'll be a library of books written on the matter once it's over and everyone will become experts after the event.
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Old 14.04.2020, 11:25
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Re: Coronavirus

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I think a lot of the numbers give us simple 'black and white' impressions. For 'saving the world' of course the total number counts, but for how effective a country has been with it's population, I think a percentage is a more accurate measure. For example;

Italy has a population of 60.36 million and 159,516 infected. That's approximately 0.264% of the population.

Great Brexit land has a population of 66.65 million and 88,621 infected. That's approximately 0.133% of the population.

Make Trump great again land has a population of 328.2 million and 578,178 infected. That's approximately 0.176% of the population.

And the great Toblerone land ( ) has a population of 8.57 million and 25,688 infected. That's approximately 0.003 of the population.

So go Switzerland!
You did not pay much attention in school when it comes to calculating percentages I guess

Switzerland has on percentage the highest confirmed infection rate of the 4 countries you mention.
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Old 14.04.2020, 11:29
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Re: Coronavirus

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The UK is seeing high death rates at the moment yet still has significant ICU bed capacity.
And staff?
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Old 14.04.2020, 11:31
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Re: Coronavirus

Never really believed in miracles - but now I just have to. Boris has tested negative now- just days after coming out of hospital where he was only for a few days, 3 of which in intensive care- and then straight out to his holiday home (you now, the ones the Government clearly says you are not allowed to go...) - amazing. Allelujah.
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Old 14.04.2020, 11:33
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Re: Coronavirus

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And staff?
And enough staff for those beds.
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