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Old 16.04.2020, 09:23
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Re: Coronavirus

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I don't see any evidence for this hypothesis. Their starting point is that economy will start over exactly from where it was a couple of months ago.

People still buying luxury products or services as before. Travelling as before etc etc
One can only wish for starting where we left off.

5 weeks in and Spanish economy is already in a worse position than the 2008 crisis

In its half-yearly forecast published on Tuesday, the IMF said that what it dubbed the “Great Lockdown” would cause a slump that hadn’t be seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s and would even surpass the pain felt during the fallout from the global financial crisis of 2008.

And Italy is worse than Spain!

2008 and the 1930s will look like a child's play when the dust settles
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  #7442  
Old 16.04.2020, 09:25
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Re: Coronavirus

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Fixed that for you. Now - got any evidence to back that up?
I think everyone is guessing about how measures will work out, with every country probably assuming that they are doing the right thing. We'll learn in 1-2 months who had the best approach.
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Old 16.04.2020, 09:27
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Re: Coronavirus

Just came across this - made oi larf, it did.
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  #7444  
Old 16.04.2020, 09:29
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Re: Coronavirus

We've flatten the curve so much that the Army guys feel bad for stealing the jobs of the medical staff

"I feel like stealing the job of our caregivers"

Forced holidays for health professionals see the army and the Civil Protection occupying their tasks. The union is alerting.
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  #7445  
Old 16.04.2020, 09:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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But doctors or health practitioners and other essential staff should be able to do their job because people are not dying only because of this new virus, but also because those things you mentioned - alcoholism, depression, etc
Yes.
Psychiatrists
Ordinarily, psychiatrists have a tarif for personal appointments and a lesser tarif for telephone consultations. As far as I understand it, they have been granted permission to charge their full rate even when they see their patients only by skype, etc.

Psychologists
Ordinarily, psychologists have a tarif for personal appointments and a lesser tarif for telephone consultations. For psychologists, this latter is severely restricted, to a certain number of minutes per year. Unlike the psychiatrists, they have NOT been granted permission to charge any rate at all, if they now see their patients only on skype, etc.

Psychiatric Nurses (Spitex/ Home nursing)
Ordinarily, psychiatric nurses have zero tarif for telephone consultations. The have applied for permission to charge for telephone/skpye consultations, but the Health Department has not yet decided up on this, at all.


Some consultations can and do take place personally, but there are both professionals and patients who should not be travelling, or who cannot travel as would be required for the appointments in person (besides, think "waiting rooms"). But the rules for psychologists and for psychiatric nurses have left some patients - the very ones who need therapy/nursing/support during this crisis - without any help at all, unless they are wealthy enough to pay for it themselves, since the medical insurance companies are not allowed to do so. And these rules are leaving these medical professionaly without an income, quite unnecessarily, while they are ready and willing to work (by phone).

Here are two current, worthwhile petitions (in German) appealing to the Health Department (the Bundesamt for Gesundheit) to order that such telephone consultations to be covered by the medical insurance.

Psychiatrische Spitex soll während der COVID 19 - Krise weiter bezahlt werden
https://secure.avaaz.org/de/communit...rm=BwsGcb%2Bde

Psychologische Psychotherapie während der Coronakrise gestrichen, das darf nicht sein!
https://secure.avaaz.org/de/communit...ichen/?tBwsGcb
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Old 16.04.2020, 09:38
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Re: Coronavirus

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A bad economy can lead to suicide, alcoholism, drug abuse, homelessness. If we use life years lost as a measure instead of raw numbers a bad economy can be worse than COVID-19. In some years from today there will be papers published which will try to estimated those numbers and ask the question if what we are doing now was worth the price and actually saved lives overall.

You can do this morbid math. But what would be the morally correct choice if the model shows that letting COVID-19 run unhindered its course results in more life years saved than trying to curb it with all means? A life saved now is easy to tally, five life saved in ten years seams so far away.

Btw. we are already sacrificing humans to keep the economy running. People might not be aware about that but it is the truth. More than a million people die worldwide each year from traffic accidents and there are more than 2.7 million which die from work-place related accidents.

https://www.who.int/violence_injury_...tatus/2015/en/
https://www.ilo.org/global/topics/sa...--de/index.htm
All the indications point to Switzerland loosening the lockdown today. In Switzerland about 1300 people have died so far, who knows how many have been saved? I'm now almost certain that historians and scientists in the future will look back on this time and shake their heads in disbelief at the sheer amount of self harm done to save such a relatively low number of lives.
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Old 16.04.2020, 09:46
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Re: Coronavirus

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All the indications point to Switzerland loosening the lockdown today. In Switzerland about 1300 people have died so far, who knows how many have been saved? I'm now almost certain that historians and scientists in the future will look back on this time and shake their heads in disbelief at the sheer amount of self harm done to save such a relatively low number of lives.
According to OFPS the current number of covid deaths is 973, 500 less than a bad flu year

Given how the disease is slowing down chances are even with all the fanfare around covid still won't be as deadly as seasonal flu

Even in Italy current covid death numbers are in line with the numbers of a bad flu year

Only difference is bad flu year doesn't get breaking news coverage
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Old 16.04.2020, 09:47
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Re: Coronavirus

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All the indications point to Switzerland loosening the lockdown today. In Switzerland about 1300 people have died so far, who knows how many have been saved? I'm now almost certain that historians and scientists in the future will look back on this time and shake their heads in disbelief at the sheer amount of self harm done to save such a relatively low number of lives.
The lock-down is not loosening today.
The government is likely to announce how the lock-down will loosen after the 26th of April.
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Old 16.04.2020, 09:49
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Re: Coronavirus

Hey RufusB, remember when you said there may have been local capacity problems and lack of ICU capacity on the NHS? It seems that so far there wasn't!

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Doubts over UK's new field hospitals
Emergency field hospitals have been built or planned around the UK, in preparation for an expected surge in coronavirus patients.

But as China begins to close its field hospitals in Wuhan, there are now doubts about how much the UK's sites will be needed.

The biggest, in London, has space for 4,000 patients but has taken only a few dozen so far.

At a site in Birmingham there are currently no patients or staff, with local hospitals so far not having requested help. Another in the north-east of England may never need to open.

And now NHS bosses are reporting that local hospitals should be able to cope with an expected peak.

So what is happening in local hospitals in the UK? These numbers help paint a picture of the situation:

About 19,000 patients being treated for coronavirus in UK hospitals
More than 30,000 beds had been freed in advance by cancelling non-emergency treatment
The number of intensive-care beds has been doubled to nearly 10,000
More than 2,000 of them are still available
NHS has paid for space in private-sector hospitals, including 8,000 beds

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-...ost_type=share

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52293762
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Old 16.04.2020, 09:57
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Re: Coronavirus

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Only difference is bad flu year doesn't get breaking news coverage
I also think that in the great minds in the future will also look at the reaction to the Coronavirus and use it as an example of an availability cascade. Media hysteria has terrified the public and the politicians have acted to try and quell those fears with little thought of foresight to the consequences of their actions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_cascade
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Old 16.04.2020, 09:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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Hey RufusB, remember when you said there may have been local capacity problems and lack of ICU capacity on the NHS? It seems that so far there wasn't!
As I understand it, there was much greater need, in real cases, but less need proportionately, precisely because (quoted from your post)
The number of intensive-care beds has been doubled to nearly 10,000

and
NHS has paid for space in private-sector hospitals, including 8,000 beds.
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Old 16.04.2020, 10:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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As I understand it, there was much greater need, in real cases, but less need proportionately, precisely because (quoted from your post)
The number of intensive-care beds has been doubled to nearly 10,000

and
NHS has paid for space in private-sector hospitals, including 8,000 beds.
I've never said there wasn't a need for extra ICU beds, not that their number wasn't increased. In fact I said that this was a great achievement managed in a short space of time.

The fact there is still capacity at the peak indicates to me at least that the lockdown needn't have been so strict.
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Old 16.04.2020, 10:03
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Re: Coronavirus

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All the indications point to Switzerland loosening the lockdown today. In Switzerland about 1300 people have died so far, who knows how many have been saved? I'm now almost certain that historians and scientists in the future will look back on this time and shake their heads in disbelief at the sheer amount of self harm done to save such a relatively low number of lives.
You don't know how many were saved because you don't know how many would have gotten infected if no measures were taken. And while 1300 doesn't look like a big number to you, it is for those who were directly affected and are grieving now.

The Swiss government was responsible and did what they needed to do. I hope they'll be prudent from now on too and open everything gradually and won't let themselves blackmailed by various groups.

Shareholders will lose a great deal of money. Others have lost their lives or could lose their lives. Swiss government should know that. I think they know it and I trust them to have a backbone.
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Old 16.04.2020, 10:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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You don't know how many were saved because you don't know how many would have gotten infected if no measures were taken. And while 1300 doesn't look like a big number to you, it is for those who were directly affected and are grieving now.

The Swiss government was responsible and did what they needed to do. I hope they'll be prudent from now on too and open everything gradually and won't let themselves blackmailed by various groups.

Shareholders will lose a great deal of money. Others have lost their lives or could lose their lives. Swiss government should know that. I think they know it and I trust them to have a backbone.
It's all about perspective.

If you see, this article about a 2 million CHF therapy for a baby, you could think that it's an absurd amount (not covered by the insurance).

However, if the lock down would have saved a 1000 or even 10000 lives in Switzerland, we are talking about similar amounts of money.
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Old 16.04.2020, 10:16
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Re: Coronavirus

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I haven't shaved for a month now. Unfortunately I can't grow a beard to save my life so I just look like a teenager who has aged very badly.
Well, you better do it fast before your wife doesn't recognise you anymore when she gets here. My hair is so long I get too much pollen stuck to it

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We've flatten the curve so much that the Army guys feel bad for stealing the jobs of the medical staff

"I feel like stealing the job of our caregivers"

Forced holidays for health professionals see the army and the Civil Protection occupying their tasks. The union is alerting.
I saw it last night in the news. 1st time that they got nationally mobilized since 1945. The morals are lowering, some get an hour an a half of work per day..so they finally started being allowed for visits at home. Which imho is a risk. Both for barracks and hospitals they work in.

These guys deserve everybody's respect even if the worst scenario didn't happen, waiting for it in mobilized state for that long must be draining, mentally. CH got ready fast when the things moved, these guys are just a fraction of the measures. While most people were kept safe and together.
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Last edited by MusicChick; 16.04.2020 at 10:28.
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  #7456  
Old 16.04.2020, 10:18
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Re: Coronavirus

Just had my morning coffee. Where's my first daily update on how things are going fine on Sweden?
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Old 16.04.2020, 10:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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Just had my morning coffee. Where's my first daily update on how things are going fine on Sweden?
Hahahaha. You want Czech ones instead? 1st day without a CV death.

CH is doing well. My neighborhood good mood barometer hit its top of the curve yesterday.

Last edited by MusicChick; 16.04.2020 at 10:33.
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Old 16.04.2020, 10:23
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Re: Coronavirus

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These guys deserve everybody's respect even if the worst scenario didn't happen, waiting for it in mobilized state for that long must be draining, mentally. CH got ready fast when the things moved, these guys are just a fraction of the measures. While most people were kept safe and together.
Absolutely.
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Old 16.04.2020, 10:25
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Re: Coronavirus

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Just had my morning coffee. Where's my first daily update on how things are going fine on Sweden?
Oh, so late? You obviously don't have children, oder?

Oh, those days when I could sleep uninterruptedly from 10 p.m. to 10 a.m. ........
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Old 16.04.2020, 10:25
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Re: Coronavirus

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According to OFPS the current number of covid deaths is 973, 500 less than a bad flu year

Given how the disease is slowing down chances are even with all the fanfare around covid still won't be as deadly as seasonal flu

Even in Italy current covid death numbers are in line with the numbers of a bad flu year

Only difference is bad flu year doesn't get breaking news coverage
Let's talk about Switzerland as most of us live here. From the NZZ

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Aktuell mehr Todesfälle als bei einer schweren Grippewelle
Currently more deaths than in a bad flu outbreak. The last two bad flu outbreaks caused 230 and 280 excess deaths. Coronavirus - with the lockdown - had already caused 411 excess by 4 April. The number now must be around 700 excess.

https://www.nzz.ch/panorama/die-wich...mt-sich-second
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