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  #7721  
Old 19.04.2020, 18:38
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Re: Coronavirus

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Strange disease this coronavirus.

I was reading the local paper on Friday and Kanton Zurich decided to test all the residents in four old people's homes.
50% tested positive.
Even more surprising, 40% of these positives had no symptoms.
I wonder: do you know if they test the staff, too?
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  #7722  
Old 19.04.2020, 18:43
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Re: Coronavirus

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I wonder: do you know if they test the staff, too?
Of course they do!

Last edited by omtatsat; 19.04.2020 at 19:13.
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  #7723  
Old 19.04.2020, 18:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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Any predictions on how deep the recession will be?
For sure, travel this year (at least by plane) is dead in the water.
No one knows yet. I've seen numbers of around 7% contraction in GDP in Europe as an estimate. I think it depends on how the reopening of the economies goes. If not too many people get sick and we can open more and more things on a faster timeline, then maybe less? If we start opening up and seek cases go nuts, then I'd say more.

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Does anyone know when they plan to reopen the borders?
It also depends on what other countries say. Right now Austria is requiring anyone entering to have a certificate not less than 4 days old stating they've got the coronavirus antibodies. Many countries are requiring 14-day quarantine upon arrival, which means you'd need 2 weeks there and possibly 2 more once back here.

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Jorido and Roegner,
Maybe your respective spouses can visit you after all.

From the link to the new rules, posted by Edwin, https://www.sem.admin.ch/dam/data/se...covid-19-d.pdf
have a look at 1.5.5., the last bullet point at the bottom of page 4.
Besuch der Kernfamilie (Ehegatten, eingetragene Lebenspartner und minderjährige Kinder), unabhängig von der Besuchsdauer und Häufigkeit;
I understand this to mean that a foreign person may now travel into Switzerladn to visit a spouse, registered partner or minor child who lives in Switizerland.
That would be great. Any idea if they need to do the 14-day quarantine both ways, as I mention above? For example right now I could go see my mom, but I'd have to stay there for 14 days and do the same upon return to CH. I could do but it's not very convenient.
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  #7724  
Old 19.04.2020, 18:48
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Re: Coronavirus

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That would be great. Any idea if they need to do the 14-day quarantine both ways, as I mention above? For example right now I could go see my mom, but I'd have to stay there for 14 days and do the same upon return to CH. I could do but it's not very convenient.
There was no mention of a quarantine in Switzerland, similar to allowing frontaliers/Grenzgänger not having that. So I´imagine you would have to quarantine when going to your mom but not coming back here.
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  #7725  
Old 19.04.2020, 18:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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China uses an intricate method called Chinese accounting, works fabulously when you initially cannot come up with the right figures. Use Chinese accounting and "Voila", you're back in the green. Simples, really.
Or maybe - just maybe - not having a complete retard as President means you can force needed measurements ("social distancing", "home isolation" etc.) before it's too late?

I remember just too well those comments here (and literally everywhere) where people called the Chinese for being "so evil, they put everyone in prison at home" just 2.5 months ago.

While the Dotard went golfing. While we kept the borders open with Italy. While people cheered in hundreds at local bars in early March in Zürich.

But it's SO much easier to just say "meh, they faked their numbers!" when all evidence points into the direction that their reaction was so much more on point then our (non-)reaction till it was too late.

"But it can't be!" is so much Trump-esque that my MAGA hat-meter just went off. Instead of learning from Korea (and China) how to stop a pandemic, it seems all that (some) people here can do is fingerpointing.

It would be the first time ever that a global pandemic is stopped by fingerpointing, by the way..
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  #7726  
Old 19.04.2020, 19:34
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Re: Coronavirus

When you suggest we should learn from China how to stop the pandemics, will you offer a plan to not start it in the 1st place? Just for good measures.
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  #7727  
Old 19.04.2020, 19:47
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Re: Coronavirus

Social isolation measures could take much longer to save hospitals' capacities: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...cience.abb5793
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  #7728  
Old 19.04.2020, 19:47
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Re: Coronavirus

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Spain changed the way how they count corona victims and their numbers dropped by half

https://www.thelocal.es/20200416/lat...ars-past-19000

I guess the start preparation for the summer season. Some factories are already opened.
And again your link 100% contradicts what you type.

Just stop.
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  #7729  
Old 19.04.2020, 19:52
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Re: Coronavirus

2 German doctors, medical examiner and psychiatrist from Hamburg have given interesting interview

"None of the numbers we know justifies the fear that the virus is fueled in Germany,"

“Corona is a comparatively harmless viral disease. We have to deal with the fact that Corona is a normal infection, and we have to learn to live with it, and without quarantine. ”The fatalities he examined had all had previous serious illnesses that,“ even if that sounds hard, everyone would have died later this year. " Püschel becomes even clearer: “The time of virologists is over. We should now ask others what is the right thing to do in the corona crisis, such as intensive care medicine. ”
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  #7730  
Old 19.04.2020, 20:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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Spain changed the way how they count corona victims and their numbers dropped by half

https://www.thelocal.es/20200416/lat...ars-past-19000

I guess the start preparation for the summer season. Some factories are already opened.
What your link actually says is

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But a change in the method of collating data across Spain introduced on Wednesday will cause a surge in the number of recorded deaths going forward.
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  #7731  
Old 19.04.2020, 20:14
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Re: Coronavirus

For some reason I added the wrong link. Here is the story how the spanish changed their counting method

https://www.thelocal.es/20200417/spa...ounting-method

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The change was an apparent move to eliminate any deaths where the patient had not been tested for covid-19. Officials said they would revise previous fatality counts, and also apply the new rules to death tolls moving forward.

"This could mean that some of the figures may seem a little strange," said Fernando Simón, the health ministry's emergencies coordinator, pointing to a "discrepancy" in the data supplied by one particular region.

According to this new criteria, the region says it has suffered more than 7,500 deaths, while the ministry's count gives a figure which is some 50 percent lower -- 3,752.
So even spanish numbers have been a big overestimation. Similar like in the USA where they have been adding thousands of numbers to the official corona victim numbers
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  #7732  
Old 19.04.2020, 20:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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For some reason I added the wrong link. Here is the story how the spanish changed their counting method

https://www.thelocal.es/20200417/spa...ounting-method

So even spanish numbers have been a big overestimation. Similar like in the USA where they have been adding thousands of numbers to the official corona victim numbers
Yet again that is not what your new link actually says. The (probably justified) criticism is that the official count is too low as it only counts officially tested deaths.

So like the UK (where they only count deaths in hospitals and only if tested), badly understated
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  #7733  
Old 19.04.2020, 20:28
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Re: Coronavirus

The numbers are clearly uncertain. Most of the curves have a log scale, so the uncertainty is hardly relevant -except maybe the chinese curve which has been the most affected by politics, but it is not the only one.
What amazes me is how many people stubbornly cling to opinions that fly in the face of any logic. It seems not to be a matter of intelligence, just plain bloody-mindedness. This and the desire to interpret the data to fit ones own prejudices.
This pandemic is so clearly not a simple flu, the economic and social ramifications are going to be huge. Nobody is quite sure how it will pan out.
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  #7734  
Old 19.04.2020, 20:31
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Re: Coronavirus

There's a special place in hell for people who willfully post falsehoods and deliberately mislead people in times such as these.
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  #7735  
Old 19.04.2020, 20:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yet again that is not what your new link actually says. The (probably justified) criticism is that the official count is too low as it only counts officially tested deaths.

So like the UK (where they only count deaths in hospitals and only if tested), badly understated
Did you read this or not at all? The Spanish have been counting every death as corona death even without a test. Now they are changing it so official numbers will be revised and lowered.

They are doing the same in the USA, adding thousands of people on the corona victim list just because somebody thinks they had corona, no test given

Is this just another big overestimation and hype over the corona virus...just like everything else so far?

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Spain's death toll moved towards 19,500 on Friday as the government revised its data collection methodology despite controversy over a system that counts only deaths among those who tested positive.

The country reported 585 new fatalities in the past 24 hours, but it was difficult to compare with previous tolls after the government amended its counting mechanism.

The change was an apparent move to eliminate any deaths where the patient had not been tested for covid-19. Officials said they would revise previous fatality counts, and also apply the new rules to death tolls moving forward.
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  #7736  
Old 19.04.2020, 20:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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There's a special place in hell for people who willfully post falsehoods and deliberately mislead people in times such as these.
Wow. Theres going to be alot of people in hell. Maybe they have alot of work to offer there
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  #7737  
Old 19.04.2020, 20:40
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Re: Coronavirus

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I wonder: do you know if they test the staff, too?
The article said they only tested the residents.
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  #7738  
Old 19.04.2020, 20:46
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Re: Coronavirus

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The article said they only tested the residents.
Yes. I read they test the staff. Why would they not test them!!
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  #7739  
Old 19.04.2020, 20:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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I read 80-95 for Covid-19 but as low as 40% for other illnesses. I guess it depends on source and studies etc. But yes, 3% is a low start!
The percentage of immune people to reach herd immunity depends on R0, its infectivity. Getting R0 below 1 means that one infected person infects less than one other person, in which case the cause (virus, bazillus, whatever) will eventually die out. The lower R0 is pushed the faster that happens.

R0 for Covid-19 is believed to be 3, thus reducing its spread by more than 2/3 will get R0 below 1. So if more than 2/3 of the people that would normally get infected avoid getting infected, be that because they're immune or because they act prudently, the number of coronavirus infections will keep falling.

R0 is different for each disease, ergo the percentage of the population that need to be immune to reach herd immunity is different for each virus, too. For measles it's ~6, so you need to "remove" 5 out of 6 targets. That's why herd immunity for measles requires 85-90% of the individuals to be immune (aka be vaccinated).
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  #7740  
Old 19.04.2020, 20:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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Did you read this or not at all? The Spanish have been counting every death as corona death even without a test. Now they are changing it so official numbers will be revised and lowered.

They are doing the same in the USA, adding thousands of people on the corona victim list just because somebody thinks they had corona, no test given

Is this just another big overestimation and hype over the corona virus...just like everything else so far?
And if you read further into the article from your link
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There are growing concerns that the [death] toll may be far higher, with regional authorities in Madrid and Catalonia insisting they each had thousands more victims than the official count.
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