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  #7741  
Old 19.04.2020, 21:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yes. I read they test the staff. Why would they not test them!!
Because it was an exercise to test the old people, even if they did test the staff the only results published in my local paper were for old people, not staff.
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  #7742  
Old 19.04.2020, 21:07
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Re: Coronavirus

The German federal agency for disease and control have made an estimation of the R0 number of the virus. Same as the study ETH Zurich have made, they estimate the R0 number to be below 1 even before the lock down measures in Germany

So how are the lock down measures helping when the virus was already slowing down even before implementing them?



https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Infekt...ionFile#page=5
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  #7743  
Old 19.04.2020, 21:23
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Re: Coronavirus

It would appear that the virus goes through care homes like a wild fire. How's it getting in there though? Is it the carers? Or the oldies that catch it on their regular hospital visits then bring it back?
The latest new cases in BaselStadt are 8, 6, 6, 3.
With such low numbers it would be nice to know where they are coming from.
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  #7744  
Old 19.04.2020, 21:27
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Re: Coronavirus

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What amazes me is how many people stubbornly cling to opinions that fly in the face of any logic.
It would be nice for people to start their post with opinion, speculation, interpretation or fact.
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Old 19.04.2020, 21:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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...So how are the lock down measures helping when the virus was already slowing down even before implementing them?
Funny how hindsight works, isn't it?
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  #7746  
Old 19.04.2020, 21:32
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Re: Coronavirus

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Funny how hindsight works, isn't it?
It's easy to jump the gun when you panic
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  #7747  
Old 19.04.2020, 22:08
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Re: Coronavirus

You are beginning to sound like Boris in Greenwich, in February. He would rather we didn't see this video- but here it is

https://youtu.be/OMwXlOQLu44
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  #7748  
Old 19.04.2020, 23:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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It's easy to jump the gun when you panic
Where to start? There's that word again. First, you're cherrypicking info from the publication - which is about Germany - and applying it to social distancing decisions made in Switzerland. But I'll play along.

According to your link and graph, the R0 was estimated at 2 in early March. Based on that, projections were made as to how many cases there could be if it kept going at that pace. Further projections were made about how many cases would be critical or even fatal. The Swiss first declared a unique situation under the Epidemics Act on 28 Feb.

In your graph, the R0 was near its highest of 3 just after March 9 - the date on which the Germans first banned large gatherings. The Swiss declared an exceptional situation on 16 March. At that time, the R0 was still at about 1.8 in Germany. That's better than 3, but still not great.

It was logical to assume that cases would continue to rise exponentially if nothing was done. In fact, cases will always continue to rise if the R0 is anything other than 0. It just goes faster if a person is spreading to 3 others vs 1.

They tried to keep things open in Italy, starting by isolating specific villages and asking people over 65 to stay home. The virus kept spreading. The numbers were rising rapidly, hospitals were running near capacity, etc.

The Swiss kept the borders open, trying to keep the economy going as long as possible. In Ticino, Geneva and Vaud, the numbers kept rising and the hospitals were not coping.

Each government has acted based on the info they had at the time, and based on what they saw in other countries. The R0 number changes over time depending on how the virus moves and what measures are taken to slow or stop its spread.

It's easy for you sitting behind your computer to be smug about how governments might have overstepped. You'd be singing a different tune if you were sick, or had a relative that was sick or died, or if in fact it had kept pace at R0 = 2 or 3.

It's actually sad to me how funny you think all of this is.
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  #7749  
Old 19.04.2020, 23:37
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Re: Coronavirus

3Wishes, I admire your fortitude.
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Old 19.04.2020, 23:38
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Re: Coronavirus

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So how are the lock down measures helping when the virus was already slowing down even before implementing them?
It seems strange that R0 almost didn't change since the beginning of a quarantine. There was another study about a week ago that said that current R0 is 0.59. Looks more realistic at times when most of the people stay home
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Old 19.04.2020, 23:40
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Re: Coronavirus

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Strange disease this coronavirus.

I was reading the local paper on Friday and Kanton Zurich decided to test all the residents in four old people's homes.
50% tested positive.
Even more surprising, 40% of these positives had no symptoms.
Presumably this is to test if you currently have the disease. I guess some of the 40% may yet develop symptoms.
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Old 19.04.2020, 23:43
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Re: Coronavirus

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It seems strange that R0 almost didn't change since the beginning of a quarantine. There was another study about a week ago that said that current R0 is 0.59. Looks more realistic at times when most of the people stay home
The numbers seem to be declining a bit quick for an Ro that big to me?
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  #7753  
Old 19.04.2020, 23:47
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Re: Coronavirus

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Or maybe - just maybe - not having a complete retard as President means you can force needed measurements ("social distancing", "home isolation" etc.) before it's too late?

I remember just too well those comments here (and literally everywhere) where people called the Chinese for being "so evil, they put everyone in prison at home" just 2.5 months ago.

While the Dotard went golfing. While we kept the borders open with Italy. While people cheered in hundreds at local bars in early March in Zürich.

But it's SO much easier to just say "meh, they faked their numbers!" when all evidence points into the direction that their reaction was so much more on point then our (non-)reaction till it was too late.

"But it can't be!" is so much Trump-esque that my MAGA hat-meter just went off. Instead of learning from Korea (and China) how to stop a pandemic, it seems all that (some) people here can do is fingerpointing.

It would be the first time ever that a global pandemic is stopped by fingerpointing, by the way..
Or maybe you don't have the slightest clue about China and how China runs their propaganda machinery. Any foreigner who's lived in China can tell you that their numbers are complete hogshit. A Chinese city with 19 million people will under normal circumstances (meaning lack of hygiene, lack of social distancing, lack of living standards, lack of quality control with food, high number of smokers, etc.) will logically speaking amount to plenty of more deaths that the 4'600+ they've officially stated.
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  #7754  
Old 19.04.2020, 23:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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The numbers seem to be declining a bit quick for an Ro that big to me?
An R0 of .59 gives a pretty decent decline, it simply means that 41% of every new infection is the end of it and will not infect anyone else. So every cycle of the spread it gets 41% smaller.
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Old 19.04.2020, 23:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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Or maybe you don't have the slightest clue about China and how China runs their propaganda machinery. Any foreigner who's lived in China can tell you that their numbers are complete hogshit. A Chinese city with 19 million people will under normal circumstances (meaning lack of hygiene, lack of social distancing, lack of living standards, lack of quality control with food, high number of smokers, etc.) will logically speaking amount to plenty of more deaths that the 4'600+ they've officially stated.
And if you believe their official death rate of 0.16% outside of Hubei (remember that the Male smoking rate is through the roof in China and Asians seem to be genetically at a greater risk) then you may as well just totally open up now.... That rate seems at least questionable when you consider New York City has a death rate of 0.12% of the ENTIRE population (not infected population).

If the Chinese data are right, in the west we are near or at herd immunity already. It would imply roughly 75% of NYC (0.12/0.16) have had the disease. Personally... I'm skeptical, I'd have thought something closer to 20% is more plausible.

We have lessons to learn from Asia, but let's look to Singapore and South Korea - avoid lockdowns, test, test, test and keep as much open as you can but close when you can't.

Last edited by jorido; 20.04.2020 at 00:09.
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  #7756  
Old 19.04.2020, 23:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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It would be nice for people to start their post with opinion, speculation, interpretation or fact.
So which one is this post?
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  #7757  
Old 20.04.2020, 00:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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Presumably this is to test if you currently have the disease. I guess some of the 40% may yet develop symptoms.
Could be; meanwhile, they are spreading the virus without themselves showing symptoms.
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Old 20.04.2020, 00:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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Or maybe you don't have the slightest clue about China and how China runs their propaganda machinery. Any foreigner who's lived in China can tell you that their numbers are complete hogshit. A Chinese city with 19 million people will under normal circumstances (meaning lack of hygiene, lack of social distancing, lack of living standards, lack of quality control with food, high number of smokers, etc.) will logically speaking amount to plenty of more deaths that the 4'600+ they've officially stated.
Great piece in The Atlantic a few days ago regarding China:

https://outline.com/JyMnhc

I found the historical context fascinating and relevant.
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Old 20.04.2020, 00:22
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Re: Coronavirus

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Great piece in The Atlantic a few days ago regarding China:

https://outline.com/JyMnhc

I found the historical context fascinating and relevant.
11 years ago on EF we had a member of the Chinese communist party who tried to push the Chines line:

Top 5 myths about china i believe most swiss do have

https://www.englishforum.ch/internat...s-do-have.html
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Old 20.04.2020, 00:26
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Re: Coronavirus

I know China for sure better than quite some people here.

Some, if not all, of the China bashers here, which most certainly never have been there, seem to have an ugly mixture of racism and "knowledge" by some yellow press media about China, and/or are outright outdated. What might have been true about China in 2010 has either changed or completely gone by 2020, comes on top.

"Lack of living standards", yeah right.. some people are really stuck in the 1980s. Compared with what? With Switzerland? Almost every country in the world then.

Newer Chinese appartments offer decent standard of living, and in the cities, hardly anyone doesn't have proper facilities at home. Chinese in general most certainly don't have a "lack of hygiene", as you name it.

"Lack of social distancing"? Oh, you mean how the Swiss love to enjoy spitting at their faces in local pubs/restaurants while having a drink, till the day the gouvernment finally closed everything down? Seen that in person happening, hours before the lockdown happened. It was a lovely March day, after all..

There are some facts which can't be denied, as in Wuhan's cremation facilities only had slightly more cases than usually per quarter (40k, instead of around 35k which is "normal" for Q1.. if you calculate how many people in a 18million city naturally die per quarter/winter months)

Face it, China did react once they realized how serious the virus was. Building several emergency hospitals, having a strict "stay at home" order in Wuhan and mask-on-what-outside rules in the rest of the country clearly helped to fight the virus when there still was time to restrict it.

Compare it with the gouvernments in Europe and the US, which seemed always two steps behind.

But I guess we don't have any issues here because of our "quality of food", eh?

By now, it should be known to anyone that as long as hospitals can cope with the amount of Corona infected "heavy" cases, death rates will stay fairly low. Which is what happened in China (because they built those!), what happens in South Korea, what Singapore still manages, and what Switzerland managed as well. Or Germany/Austria.

Once your hospitals are overloaded, it soon becomes 5x-10x more deadly as it would be otherwise. Once your system is overloaded, it also affects other patients. This is what happened in Italy, Spain, France, New York, and the UK looks like it more every day.

Of course, if you're a Trump supporter, then it's always "the others" to blame..
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