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  #7961  
Old 21.04.2020, 21:22
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Re: Coronavirus

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I wonder if Czech beer spas open, if it's planned for the massage places to open here the 27th, no?
Some years ago I was visiting Pilsen and went to tour the underground network under the city, it was fascinating: nearly every household brewed their own beer and stored it underground and those caves were (and still are?) largely interconnected.
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  #7962  
Old 21.04.2020, 21:37
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Re: Coronavirus

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Some years ago I was visiting Pilsen and went to tour the underground network under the city, it was fascinating: nearly every household brewed their own beer and stored it underground and those caves were (and still are?) largely interconnected.
It is still. Katakomby! I really did not like it as a kid. But everybody still brews. Monks do as well, next time book a boat tour with monks beer or wine...or one of the beer spa, they do sweethearts' packages, too. When I was a kid commies took us for a school field trip to a brewery. Came home with a lot of these granola yeast food supplements. Now I have marmite
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Old 21.04.2020, 21:46
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Re: Coronavirus

U fleku, my most favorite place on Earth. I'm a happy third generation customer
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  #7964  
Old 21.04.2020, 21:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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But Trump said it was a war!
America has to fight its wars
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  #7965  
Old 21.04.2020, 21:57
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Re: Coronavirus

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U fleku, my most favorite place on Earth. I'm a happy third generation customer
Whaaat. "U Fleků", plural, it is a family name and business. How come your 2 previous generations were customers there?
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Old 21.04.2020, 21:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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America has to fight its wars
Is he still using the "Task Force"?
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  #7967  
Old 21.04.2020, 22:02
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Re: Coronavirus

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So, should tax payers pay to help companies that do not pay tax in the country? Be it in UK or CH, or anywhere for that matter?
maybe, if they employ lots of people in the country?
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  #7968  
Old 21.04.2020, 22:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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The predictions are not correct. Most likely they reflect political tampering. The US will >100k reported deaths by end of May. Also, actual numbers deaths in US are about 50% higher than reported (clearly visible when you view deviations to mean). After May the US will continue at 10-20k reported fatalities a month.

US fatalities will probably finish at 300-700k.

The evidence is clear if you look at the model. It predicts Italy and Spain have 0 daily fatalities after the middle of May.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/italy
https://covid19.healthdata.org/spain

For the US it predicts 0 daily fatalities after the end of May.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Think about it. 0 daily fatalities. The virus 100% eradicated within 2.5 months. How likely does that seem to you?

The predictions rely upon a symmetric run-down of the daily fatalities. Compare that to the actual run-down pattern of daily fatalities.
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/italy/
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/spain/

The only country that managed a symmetric run-down of daily fatalities was China. And they had a 100% lockdown of Wuhan for 2.5 months. Nobody left their homes. They treated the hospital wards like bio-hazard zones, with 100% containment. Meanwhile the rest of the country was able to continue working.

Look at South Korea - they have massive testing and 100% contact tracing, yet still run at 100 deaths a month even with fully locked down borders (would be 700 monthly for US, if adjusted for population).

The virus is here to stay. Fatalities for western countries will be between 0.1 to 0.3% of population and will be 90% finished in 12 months. (9 to 27k for Switzerland, and 8-20m globally).

Years lost per fatality will be <5 years since most are elderly. (that's the good news). What is uncertain is long term effects on younger folks who had serious cases but don't die.

My 2 cents. Fwiw I build models for a living.
Hi Fiji, I am not sure why anyone at this stage would take the the University of Washington Model (IHME) as sacrosanct? It is/was beyond flawed. That is old news. Their assumptions were clearly off on all levels.

As for your modeling? What are your assumptions and how do they differ from Dr Attia"s? Curious as to how you believe your model is the correct one ... What inputs/assumptions did you use?
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  #7969  
Old 22.04.2020, 00:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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Hi Fiji, I am not sure why anyone at this stage would take the the University of Washington Model (IHME) as sacrosanct? It is/was beyond flawed. That is old news. Their assumptions were clearly off on all levels.

As for your modeling? What are your assumptions and how do they differ from Dr Attia"s? Curious as to how you believe your model is the correct one ... What inputs/assumptions did you use?
Over 45,000 total deaths in the US now with over 2,600 new deaths reported today; at this daily rate, they will reach the 60,000 forecast of total deaths in six days.
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  #7970  
Old 22.04.2020, 01:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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Another thing is that the schools have closed a few days into March, so the teachers must have gotten infected really way back at the beginning of the epidemics.
So at least in CZ they're even more at risk than the numbers show.
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  #7971  
Old 22.04.2020, 06:48
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Re: Coronavirus

I'm using my salt lamp again now. It ionizes the immediate environment and destroys any contamination

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  #7972  
Old 22.04.2020, 07:31
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Re: Coronavirus

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I'm using my salt lamp again now. It ionizes the immediate environment and destroys any contamination
Don't forget your tin foil hat to go with it.
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  #7973  
Old 22.04.2020, 09:33
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Re: Coronavirus

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But if current mortality figures in the US are correct, and Attia puts them around 60,000 or so (as does Fauci)...
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Hi Fiji, I am not sure why anyone at this stage would take the the University of Washington Model (IHME) as sacrosanct? It is/was beyond flawed. That is old news. Their assumptions were clearly off on all levels...
Hi TF, perhaps I misunderstood your original post. I thought you were considering that the 60k estimates from Attia and Fauci were perhaps correct. If we agree that IHME is wrong with their 60k estimate, then so are Attia and Fauci. My apologies for any confusion.
Kind Regards
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  #7974  
Old 22.04.2020, 10:03
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Re: Coronavirus

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So at least in CZ they're even more at risk than the numbers show.
So what do you suggest the countries do, close schools till xmas when the Swiss vax gets available to Europe?

CZ have lowered the risk so significantly, they might be reopening schools asap. For now it looks like they also let the parents decide (so school will be optional to cover for the essential jobs but not obligatory just yet to keep the risk minimal) and they will keep the classes max 15 kids. Better than 36 which would be the normal top maximum. We don't have that many kids there, though, so it will not be so critical with distancing. CZs being a reserved bunch, you don't have to tell them to avoid kissing upon greeting anyone. Nor do teachers shake hands with students at the beginning and end of a class as is the Swiss thing. We keep that for the family.

I can sense the pushback of teachers here to not rush back to work, but I also sense the urgency to save at least a bit of a school year. As per schools I know here and there, the continuity of learning was really well preserved. Just as the health system pulled out the belts and suspenders, army mobilized, police and townhalls, CFF. It is honestly impressive. The risk is now there for everyone, I don't think you can just pick out the teachers as risking too much when everyone does in their way. And if not now when still in confinement, everyone will be for a while when life opens up again.
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  #7975  
Old 22.04.2020, 10:34
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Re: Coronavirus

The most furious about the state of emergency in Spain until May 9th are not the Spainards but.......Germans property owners (not residents) in Mallorca https://www.majorcadailybulletin.com...s-majorca.html The original article in Spanish https://elpais.com/espana/2020-04-21...sidencias.html

The funny thing is that I could be having fun on the DE autobahn now: cheap gas, low traffic, summer tires and perfect weather.........but the German border is as closed as the Spanish one to non-residents.
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  #7976  
Old 22.04.2020, 10:42
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Re: Coronavirus

BaselStadt - no new cases today.
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  #7977  
Old 22.04.2020, 10:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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Don't forget your tin foil hat to go with it.
Probably.

But "don't forget to blow out the candle" is probably more practical.
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Old 22.04.2020, 11:40
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Re: Coronavirus

Has anyone else noticed that many seem to have just given up on social distancing? Especially young people and teenagers? I've seen many groups hanging out together.

People don't seem to be taking the lockdown as seriously anymore. Essentially nothing has changed since we went into lockdown as there is no cure or vaccination.
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Old 22.04.2020, 11:47
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Re: Coronavirus

Australia's curve looks beautiful
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Old 22.04.2020, 11:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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People don't seem to be taking the lockdown as seriously anymore. Essentially nothing has changed since we went into lockdown as there is no cure or vaccination.
So? The large majority who gets it easily recovers and the entire point of shutdown/lockdown was to not overburden the healthcare systems, not to eradicate anything. It was abundantly clear that the virus will go nowhere and we’ll have to live with it like we do with a million others. For the by far largest proportion of any population, it is of no more risk than a cold or flu virus. Unless there is another surge that threatens to overburden the healthcare systems, there is no reason to not go about your lives more or less as usual, with certain precautions which don’t fundamentally limit anyone.

Unless of course anyone seriously thinks we should just all bunker up until there’s a vaccine. Granted by the time that happens, there will be no real world to go back to and the vaccine will be the least of all worries.
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