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Old 22.04.2020, 12:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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Has anyone else noticed that many seem to have just given up on social distancing? Especially young people and teenagers? I've seen many groups hanging out together.

People don't seem to be taking the lockdown as seriously anymore. Essentially nothing has changed since we went into lockdown as there is no cure or vaccination.
Some groups are at low risk when getting infected, and with government easing restrictions it was bound to happen that people would start feeling this way.

I've seen more, but would not call it a lot compared to the old days before Corona.
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  #7982  
Old 22.04.2020, 12:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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Has anyone else noticed that many seem to have just given up on social distancing? Especially young people and teenagers? I've seen many groups hanging out together.

People don't seem to be taking the lockdown as seriously anymore. Essentially nothing has changed since we went into lockdown as there is no cure or vaccination.
Well, what has changed is the infection rate: before "shutdown" it was steeply going up and now it's slowly going down. But yeah, people are getting more and more relaxed, especially youngsters. I just hope we won't see a big second wave...
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  #7983  
Old 22.04.2020, 12:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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Has anyone else noticed that many seem to have just given up on social distancing? Especially young people and teenagers? I've seen many groups hanging out together.

People don't seem to be taking the lockdown as seriously anymore. Essentially nothing has changed since we went into lockdown as there is no cure or vaccination.
Not really, around here there has been no change in behaviour and most people are still respecting the social distancing.
I think we’ll probably see a bigger change next week once they’ve relaxed things a bit more.
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Old 22.04.2020, 14:05
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Re: Coronavirus

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So? The large majority who gets it easily recovers and the entire point of shutdown/lockdown was to not overburden the healthcare systems, not to eradicate anything. It was abundantly clear that the virus will go nowhere and we’ll have to live with it like we do with a million others. For the by far largest proportion of any population, it is of no more risk than a cold or flu virus. Unless there is another surge that threatens to overburden the healthcare systems, there is no reason to not go about your lives more or less as usual, with certain precautions which don’t fundamentally limit anyone.

Unless of course anyone seriously thinks we should just all bunker up until there’s a vaccine. Granted by the time that happens, there will be no real world to go back to and the vaccine will be the least of all worries.
I am against the strict lock down that we've seen (although we've gotten away lightly in Switzerland), I do however see the logic and advantage of social distancing.

What I've witnessed, especially among the youngsters is patent ignoring of the rules that are still in place. Of course they're not at risk, but it does come across as two fingers up at everyone else who is following the rules of the lock down.
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  #7985  
Old 22.04.2020, 14:37
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Re: Coronavirus

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So what do you suggest the countries do, close schools till xmas when the Swiss vax gets available to Europe?

CZ have lowered the risk so significantly, they might be reopening schools asap. For now it looks like they also let the parents decide (so school will be optional to cover for the essential jobs but not obligatory just yet to keep the risk minimal) and they will keep the classes max 15 kids. Better than 36 which would be the normal top maximum. We don't have that many kids there, though, so it will not be so critical with distancing. CZs being a reserved bunch, you don't have to tell them to avoid kissing upon greeting anyone. Nor do teachers shake hands with students at the beginning and end of a class as is the Swiss thing. We keep that for the family.

I can sense the pushback of teachers here to not rush back to work, but I also sense the urgency to save at least a bit of a school year. As per schools I know here and there, the continuity of learning was really well preserved. Just as the health system pulled out the belts and suspenders, army mobilized, police and townhalls, CFF. It is honestly impressive. The risk is now there for everyone, I don't think you can just pick out the teachers as risking too much when everyone does in their way. And if not now when still in confinement, everyone will be for a while when life opens up again.
I think schools should be among the first to reopen, perhaps coupled with suspending mandatoriness for some time. Find solutions for the 10% teachers who are at risk. Focus on the core topics if necessary, forget about geography and chemistry for a while.

Something along those lines.
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  #7986  
Old 22.04.2020, 14:47
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Re: Coronavirus

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Has anyone else noticed that many seem to have just given up on social distancing? Especially young people and teenagers? I've seen many groups hanging out together.

People don't seem to be taking the lockdown as seriously anymore. Essentially nothing has changed since we went into lockdown as there is no cure or vaccination.
The under 25s definitely aren't taking it seriously. On an individual level that's rationale, but lets hope it doesn't put the infection rate too high.
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  #7987  
Old 22.04.2020, 14:48
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Re: Coronavirus

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So?....
So if that's the case expect lockdown 2 in about 4 to 6 weeks.
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  #7988  
Old 22.04.2020, 14:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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I am against the strict lock down that we've seen (although we've gotten away lightly in Switzerland), I do however see the logic and advantage of social distancing.

What I've witnessed, especially among the youngsters is patent ignoring of the rules that are still in place. Of course they're not at risk, but it does come across as two fingers up at everyone else who is following the rules of the lock down.
Yes I remember you are against lockdowns.

Having walked around Basel every day, I don't see any difference. On any sunny and awrm day like the ones we had in the past few weeks, you would normally see swarms of people by the Rhine. There are still extremely few and the ones that are there all neatly sit in either duos or trios with the obligatory 2m distance.

Combined with the marginal number of newly detected infections, very small reproduction rates and the fact that those who have been tested positive are in self-quarantine or in the hospital, I really don't see where huge masses of people would now get infected.

As previously said, it's hardly worth chasing after a few dozen outliers even in a population of 8.6m. The chance of that having any significant consequence is around zero. Also, just as we observe our elderly neighbors presumably going out more often than ever - which we only see because we're home and mind you, they are allowed - we also are on increased alert to look out for groups and fail to put that into perspective. However, in the big scheme of things, the few groups are quite irrelevant.

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So if that's the case expect lockdown 2 in about 4 to 6 weeks.
Highly unlikely, but I let you believe what you want to believe. You would clearly prefer to lock everyone up for the next five years, and that's your prerogative, but there's no point in discussing this, we will never ever see eye to eye on this.
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Old 22.04.2020, 14:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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Having walked around Basel every day, I don't see any difference. On any sunny and awrm day like the ones we had in the past few weeks, you would normally see swarms of people by the Rhine. There are still extremely few and the ones that are there all neatly sit in either duos or trios with the obligatory 2m distance.

Combined with the marginal number of newly detected infections, very small reproduction rates and the fact that those who have been tested positive are in self-quarantine or in the hospital, I really don't see where huge masses of people would now get infected.

As previously said, it's hardly worth chasing after a few dozen outliers even in a population of 8.6m. Let them be, the chance of that having any significant consequence is entirely negligible. Also, just as we observe our elderly neighbors presumably going out more often than ever - which we only see because we're home and mind you, they are allowed - we also are on increased alert to look out for groups. However, in the big scheme of things, they're irrelevant.
Try walking across Dreirosenbrucke late at night. Lots of teenagers and early 20s all together, usually drinking. I agree that most people are still behaving well. The kids... less so.

I guess even if very mild cases are still infectious, they are like to be less so, so I guess young people's behaviour probably matters less than older peoples.
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Old 22.04.2020, 14:56
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Re: Coronavirus

Just seen the Austrian plans for school reopening. Maximum 12 kids per class, minimum 1 metre distance at all times, disinfecting before entering school, masks compulsory in all open areas of the school (toilets, corridors, etc.), splitting into 2 sub-groups where necessary, different start and finish times for school and individual lessons for different classes....

https://beta.20min.ch/story/coronavi...89?legacy=true (currently about 4 scrolls down from the top)

Also mentions France have set a maximum class size of 15.
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Old 22.04.2020, 14:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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Not really, around here there has been no change in behaviour and most people are still respecting the social distancing.
I think we’ll probably see a bigger change next week once they’ve relaxed things a bit more.
That's probably in no small part a consequence of the virus' presence. The latin parts of Switzerland got hit much harder than the German speaking parts, this shows in all kinds of reactions, from the calls to reopen to the behaviour of the population. I'm pretty sure neither the Ticinesi nor the Genevois are out and about again in the same way/amount as the Zürcher or St.Galler are. And of course the young are the least careful, many feel invincible at that age.
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Old 22.04.2020, 15:40
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Re: Coronavirus

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I'm not convinced he could find it without assistance.
I smell a trap.
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Old 22.04.2020, 16:09
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Re: Coronavirus

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The Santa Clara, California Medical Examiner-Coroner said autopsies on two people who died in early and mid-February showed they had been infected by the virus. Samples sent to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention tested positive on Tuesday.

The two people died at home on February 6 and February 17, making them the earliest-known victims of the coronavirus in the United States.

Reclassifying their deaths as related to the coronavirus suggests the virus had been spreading through the United States for much longer than was initially thought — potentially for weeks or even months longer.

Genetic data from patients in New York show the virus they contracted likely came from contacts in Italy or other parts of Europe, while the Washington State outbreak came from the American who traveled to Wuhan.

The new cases also underscore just how far behind American preparations for the coronavirus had fallen by early February. California public health labs began testing for the coronavirus. on Feb. 12th.
Source

Food for thought!

Meanwhile, almost a month after these two deaths Trump was tweeting on Mar 2nd;
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Florida Dept. Health@HealthyFla, Mar 2
Florida has 2 presumptive positive #COVID19 cases: one adult resident of Hillsborough County and one adult resident of Manatee County.
Both individuals are isolated and being appropriately cared for.
So underlining the lack of widespread testing in Florida.
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  #7994  
Old 22.04.2020, 16:17
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Re: Coronavirus

Sweden announced an extra press conference scheduled for 16:30

They screwed up majorly with presented researched during yesterday's pressconference that for every found infection in Stockholm there are 1.000 others according to calculations so herd immunity will soon be reached.

Problem with that one is that more than 250% of the population of Stockholm would be infected... They admitted a screw up and pulled those numbers back.

Than they came with a research done by a blood bank that showed 11% of people are infected. Turned out this morning that they also included samples of those who had been confirmed to be infected and thus were called to donate blood for blood plasma in the testing, so that number is to high, but due to the data being anonymous they cannot separate the groups so again excuses and another research in the trashcan.

Than they said 30% is infected and we need 60% for herd immunity, asked for numbers to back this up they had to admit that there are no numbers to back up this claim.

In the meanwhile the numbers are rising with 682 new infections and 172 new deaths today, and protest in the country itself from experts is growing.

I think we can conclude that the Swedes really have no clue due to very low testing (around 1.500 tests a day) what is going on in the country, and that their tactic now officially is failing.

Very curious what they'll announce in the special press conference. To me their approach is no longer defendable.
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Old 22.04.2020, 16:22
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Re: Coronavirus

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Try walking across Dreirosenbrucke late at night. Lots of teenagers and early 20s all together, usually drinking. I agree that most people are still behaving well. The kids... less so.

I guess even if very mild cases are still infectious, they are like to be less so, so I guess young people's behaviour probably matters less than older peoples.
This is a reasonable assumption, but may not be true. Do younger people generally only get a mild version because the virus replicates less in them (lower viral load) or do they cope better with a higher viral load (in which case they will be just as infectious). If it is a mixture of the two then the young should also be behaving differently. I have not seen any reliable data to provide answers, which is a pity as it is really relevant to opening the schools and universities.
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  #7996  
Old 22.04.2020, 16:28
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Re: Coronavirus

From Jacques Felley
- Head of Precision Medicine @CHUV
, Associate Professor @EPFL
, National COVID-19 Science Task Force, genomics of infection and immunity, personalized health

and Richard Neher
-
biologist/physicist at the @biozentrum
in Basel

Name:  jac.JPG
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Size:  54.1 KB

https://twitter.com/richardneher/sta...46012768960513
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Old 22.04.2020, 16:38
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Re: Coronavirus

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From Jacques Felley
- Head of Precision Medicine @CHUV
, Associate Professor @EPFL
, National COVID-19 Science Task Force, genomics of infection and immunity, personalized health

and Richard Neher
-
biologist/physicist at the @biozentrum
in Basel

Attachment 139276

https://twitter.com/richardneher/sta...46012768960513
Herd Immunity is just not going to happen without a vaccine
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Old 22.04.2020, 16:38
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Re: Coronavirus

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I think schools should be among the first to reopen, perhaps coupled with suspending mandatoriness for some time. Find solutions for the 10% teachers who are at risk.
You cannot order them to stay at home and they won't likely adhere, either. Knowing a lot of them..

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Focus on the core topics if necessary, forget about geography and chemistry for a while.
Honestly, in the time of pandemics, those exact two subjects are important. And it is easy to motivate kids to care about them. The sci dossiers (biochem) and geography that were prepared and dustributed to students remotely are beautiful and well done. Those and bunch of others can be taught distantly. Just wouldn't ask parents to supervise the dissections of pig heart or worms. Or global warming, some will teach something else than school wants.

Schools will be reopened, a sense of normalcy is desperately needed.

I just got back from Migros with a feeling of world travel excitement and the height of social life, never thought about that before. The social distancing measures are done really well there, it is very user friendly even for those who don't get it. Nobody is breathing on eachother's neck.

Swisscom looked like it might be opening soon.
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Old 22.04.2020, 16:39
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Re: Coronavirus

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This is a reasonable assumption, but may not be true. Do younger people generally only get a mild version because the virus replicates less in them (lower viral load) or do they cope better with a higher viral load (in which case they will be just as infectious).
Problem...
I've been wondering for a while if the UK has been hit by a different strain of the virus than Switzerland because the mortality has been so much higher. Also the demographic of the fatalities has been markedly different.

I read last week that the average age of the fatalities in ZH Canton was 75 with the age range being 65 - 97. In my home town, the average age is lower and they're seeing fatalities in the 30s - 60s age groups despite being a much smaller population, not running at capacity, having a smaller BAME population and having a far lower number of diagnosed cases.

Last night, I read this...

Scientists in China have discovered more than 30 mutations of the new coronavirus, which they say may partly explain why it has been more deadly in certain parts of the world....

...
In the study, the researchers assessed the viral load - meaning the amount of the virus - in human cells after one, two, four and eight hours, as well as the following day and 48 hours later.
The most aggressive strains created up to 270 times as much viral load as the least potent type, the scientists found.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...china-11976380
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Old 22.04.2020, 16:43
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Re: Coronavirus

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Herd Immunity is just not going to happen without a vaccine
Nobody is saying that in what I posted (thankfully). It's just to demonstrate what stage some of the research is at.
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