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  #8061  
Old 23.04.2020, 09:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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Not picking on you personally, but why am I suddenly seeing 'normalcy' creeping into common usage when I've never seen or heard it before the last couple of weeks? What happened to 'sense of normality'?
Aww, this is the old discussion about the peculiar usage of English of the non-native speakers.

I like normalcy. Is it too archaic? Should I steer clear of it? I'm afraid I'll never ever learn proper English. German and French seem simpler by comparison.
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  #8062  
Old 23.04.2020, 10:58
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Re: Coronavirus

What is italy doing to keep their daily number of new cases so high? Is it that they tested heavily in the north and then it headed south for a further spread?

Their numbers don't seem to follow the other hard hit Spain or France even though they all appear to be following similar procedures.
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  #8063  
Old 23.04.2020, 11:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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Apple and Google have developed something similar in the US but apparently it only works on the latest models and software. No doubt the Govt. will pay for our handy upgrades?
On the Android side they will update from version 6.0 onward which would include above 80% of all phones in current use (80% already applies a year ago - could imagine that is 90% by now). Not sure about Apple.

The fun on the Android side is that this has to then be integrated into all the OEM/customised versions of Android for each manufacturer. Not sure how long that will take, particularly as they will be updating OEM versions that are not supported by the manufacturer. Don't think Samsung are otherwise touching anything below 7.0 or 8.0 for example.
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Old 23.04.2020, 11:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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Aww, this is the old discussion about the peculiar usage of English of the non-native speakers.

I like normalcy. Is it too archaic? Should I steer clear of it? I'm afraid I'll never ever learn proper English. German and French seem simpler by comparison.
Normalcy is a US English derivation. Normality is ... less nails-on-chalkboard!
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Old 23.04.2020, 11:36
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Re: Coronavirus

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Normalcy is a US English derivation. Normality is ... less nails-on-chalkboard!
Is this going to be the new normal?
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Old 23.04.2020, 11:43
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Re: Coronavirus

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What is italy doing to keep their daily number of new cases so high? Is it that they tested heavily in the north and then it headed south for a further spread?

Their numbers don't seem to follow the other hard hit Spain or France even though they all appear to be following similar procedures.
Not sure what you're looking at here. Spain at the moment is averaging around 4K reported new cases per day over the last week or so, Italy has dropped from 4K to nearer 3K in the same period.

Italy and France do seem to be reducing, if more slowly than one might hope. But Spain after some good movement end March to early April (apart from a blip on 20 April which is probably a reporting glitch) is actually worryingly steady in recent days.

Looking at the Worldometers charts here btw.
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Old 23.04.2020, 11:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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Not sure what you're looking at here. Spain at the moment is averaging around 4K reported new cases per day over the last week or so, Italy has dropped from 4K to nearer 3K in the same period.

Italy and France do seem to be reducing, if more slowly than one might hope. But Spain after some good movement end March to early April (apart from a blip on 20 April which is probably a reporting glitch) is actually worryingly steady in recent days.

Looking at the Worldometers charts here btw.
Its worth remembering that most places are testing more people than they were a few weeks ago - so the real decline might well be bigger than the raw numbers suggest.
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Old 23.04.2020, 11:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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Its worth remembering that most places are testing more people than they were a few weeks ago - so the real decline might well be bigger than the raw numbers suggest.
It's also worth remembering that unless deaths were recorded in a hospital, in the UK at least, they've not been included in the official count. No-one really knows is the scary truth.
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Old 23.04.2020, 11:55
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Re: Coronavirus

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Its worth remembering that most places are testing more people than they were a few weeks ago - so the real decline might well be bigger than the raw numbers suggest.
True. Was probably concentrating on what said about Italy which didn't tally with what I was looking at.
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Old 23.04.2020, 12:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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What is italy doing to keep their daily number of new cases so high? Is it that they tested heavily in the north and then it headed south for a further spread?

Their numbers don't seem to follow the other hard hit Spain or France even though they all appear to be following similar procedures.
Best to look at new hospitalisations and not just the number of newly found cases.
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Old 23.04.2020, 12:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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Or reflected in commonsense.

Think of your group of acquaintances, family and friends in Switzerland. How many have mentioned even getting the sniffles in the last 6 weeks of "lock-down"? How many have got sick? 10%, 50%, 1 or 2? I have a group of with some 100 Whatsapp users in Switzerland, and none of them have reported anything. I have other friends who have had seriously caught it but of the 100 - 150 people I've spoken to in the last month, 2 caught it and they caught it in France. There is no way, it has been so wide-spread here.

You'd probably also find people in Singapore saying the exact same thing before their death or infection rates exploded, just as you do in Sweden ...
This.

Edwin, I had no time to elaborate last night, I am all for mass testing but when it is done and interpreted in the particularly sensitive way that deals with hot data with such short expiration date (ie ready to react, adjust and implement immediately). South Korea did and does. China collected data but who can (or wants to) rely on it.

Czech gov is launching a mass test campaign this morning to figure out the exact spread (antibodies) via a quick finger test, 30min result and representative cohorts. 6 cities chosen on particularly representative criteria, 18-89yr of age, 2 largest cities added 8-17yr as well to decide if schools weren't planned to open too early.

As of now, too many people came so they closed the testing stations for today and tomorrow in the 2 biggest cities. The test staff are all medical students that have been in operation for a month already. Masks as it has been the case for a couple of weeks are obligatory for the population.

The planned total number of antibody tests is 28 000. And they planned to be collecting for a week. The Head of Medical Uni in Prague has prepared all this with the cooperation of all the depts., health system and stats/software brains. The gov will then adjust their reopening plan. So far they wanted to wait to see if Easter was ok, it was and didn't seem to bring the numbers up. What they want is smartening and targetting the quarantine system, reopen but based on the stats and careful estimates.

Otherwise: 196 000 tests up to today, 7 136 positive people, 2002 recovered, 210 deaths.
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Old 23.04.2020, 12:16
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Re: Coronavirus

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This.

Edwin, I had no time to elaborate last night, I am all for mass testing but when it is done and interpreted in the particularly sensitive way that deals with hot data with such short expiration date. South Korea did and does. China collected data but who can (or wants to) rely on it.

Czech gov is launching a mass test campaign this morning to figure out the exact spread (antibodies) via a quick finger test, 30min result and representative cohorts. 6 cities chosen on particularly representative criteria, 18-89yr of age, 2 largest cities added 8-17yr as well to decide if schools weren't planned to open too early.

As of now, too many people came so they closed the testing stations for today and tomorrow in the 2 biggest cities. The test staff are all medical students that have been in operation for a month already. Masks as it has been the case for a couple of weeks are obligatory for the population.

The planned total number of antibody tests is 28 000. And they planned to be collecting for a week. The Head of Medical Uni in Prague has prepared all this with the cooperation of all the depts., health system and stats/software brains. The gov will then adjust their reopening plan. So far they wanted to wait to see if Easter was ok, it was and didn't seem to bring the numbers up. What they want is smartening and targetting the quarantine system.

Otherwise: 196 000 tests up to today, 7 136 positive people, 2002 recovered, 210 deaths.
Universities in Genf are also doing a research among around 27.000 people, preliminary results indicate 5,5% spread in Genf. (they yet have to publish research so no clue on the math behind it.)

I'd love to see a really large testing so we get numbers that can be used widely around the globe, where countries can say o.k. we had 5.000 deaths, this is the age distribution, amount of people with conditions in society, amount of obese and such correction factors and then get a number of how much of the population has been effected. At this moment all those state epidemiologists in Europa are using any number between 0.5 and 50% that seems to fit their beliefs but lacks any numbers to back them up. Look at Sweden which is about the worst with this this week alone official presented numbers have ranged from over 250% down to under 10% of the population being infected... pure insanity.

(They should btw instantly fire everybody who thought having more than 100% of the population infected could be a thing...)
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  #8073  
Old 23.04.2020, 12:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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Universities in Genf are also doing a research among around 27.000 people, preliminary results indicate 5,5% spread in Genf. (they yet have to publish research so no clue on the math behind it.)

I'd love to see a really large testing so we get numbers that can be used widely around the globe, where countries can say o.k. we had 5.000 deaths, this is the age distribution, amount of people with conditions in society, amount of obese and such correction factors and then get a number of how much of the population has been effected. At this moment all those state epidemiologists in Europa are using any number between 0.5 and 50% that seems to fit their beliefs but lacks any numbers to back them up. Look at Sweden which is about the worst with this this week alone official presented numbers have ranged from over 250% down to under 10% of the population being infected... pure insanity.

(They should btw instantly fire everybody who thought having more than 100% of the population infected could be a thing...)
The 250% really looks like a poorly timed science joke. The Head of the MD uni in Prague also said that he estimates the spread to be little, surely in single digits. Plus there are known epicenters already and there are anti biohasard measures put in place in nursing homes and immunodepr departments already. The interesting thing is the crisis team is based on scientists, health and army. Politicians aren't expected to run any of this. That's where the big countries messed up I think. Small countries quickly shifted and adapted their leadership.

There have been weddings in face masks. So...new sense of normalcy.
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Old 23.04.2020, 13:08
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Re: Coronavirus

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Universities in Genf are also doing a research among around 27.000 people, preliminary results indicate 5,5% spread in Genf. (they yet have to publish research so no clue on the math behind it.)
I found this paper for that study. Current results are based on 760 tests only, giving 3.5% for the first week and 5.5% for the second. 27000 seems to be just the rough estimate for people infected in Geneva (5.5% x 491,000 ?)

"Les résultats préliminaires sont basés sur les 760 premiers participants, soit 343 (54% de femmes, 46% d’hommes, 87% d’adultes et 13% de mineurs) entre le 6 et le 10 avril et 417 participants (53% de femmes, 47% d’hommes, 87% d’adultes et 13% de mineurs) pour la semaine du 14 au 17 avril 2020.

Ces premières données font apparaître une séroprévalence dans la population estimée à 3,5% (variabilité possible de 1,6% à 5,4%) pour la première semaine et 5,5% (variabilité possible de 3,3% à 7,7%) pour la seconde. Cet échantillon, ainsi que la période étudiée, sont trop petits pour en déduire avec certitude le pourcentage d'augmentation hebdomadaire, mais une hausse significative a été observée entre les deux semaines.

La séroprévalence globale de 5.5% suggère que près de 27'000 personnes ont été exposées au SARS-CoV-2 dans le canton de Genève. Il s’agit d’une estimation minimale, probablement liée à de multiples incertitudes, notamment le temps nécessaire pour développer une immunité et la dynamique de l’épidémie. On s'attend à ce que cette séroprévalence dans la population s’accroisse ces prochaines semaines du fait de la récente augmentation du nombre de cas dans le canton."
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Old 23.04.2020, 13:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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I found this paper for that study. Current results are based on 760 tests only, giving 3.5% for the first week and 5.5% for the second. 27000 seems to be just the rough estimate for people infected in Geneva (5.5% x 491,000 ?)
Yep my mistake. Amount of persons in the test group seems to be 5600 and the research will run till the end of May.
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Old 23.04.2020, 13:41
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Re: Coronavirus

Alternative view from Sweden, "Why lockdown is wrong'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfN2...VlQk2e2DarCV60
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Old 23.04.2020, 13:55
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Re: Coronavirus

‘Closing borders is ridiculous’: the epidemiologist behind Sweden’s controversial coronavirus strategy

Interesting interview with Swedish epidemiologist in charge of Sweden's strategy.

What would you have done differently?
We underestimated the issues at care homes, and how the measures would be applied. We should have controlled this more thoroughly. By contrast, the health system, which is under unusual pressure, has nevertheless always been ahead of the curve.

Are you satisfied with the strategy?
Yes! We know that COVID-19 is extremely dangerous for very old people, which is of course bad. But looking at pandemics, there are much worse scenarios than this one. Most problems that we have right now are not because of the disease, but because of the measures that in some environments have not been applied properly: the deaths among older people is a huge problem and we are fighting hard.
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Old 23.04.2020, 13:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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Alternative view from Sweden, "Why lockdown is wrong'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfN2...VlQk2e2DarCV60
Did you see this? Thankgod for brains on Teds explaining us stuffs.
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Old 23.04.2020, 13:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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‘Closing borders is ridiculous’: the epidemiologist behind Sweden’s controversial coronavirus strategy

Interesting interview with Swedish epidemiologist in charge of Sweden's strategy.

What would you have done differently?
We underestimated the issues at care homes, and how the measures would be applied. We should have controlled this more thoroughly. By contrast, the health system, which is under unusual pressure, has nevertheless always been ahead of the curve.

Are you satisfied with the strategy?
Yes! We know that COVID-19 is extremely dangerous for very old people, which is of course bad. But looking at pandemics, there are much worse scenarios than this one. Most problems that we have right now are not because of the disease, but because of the measures that in some environments have not been applied properly: the deaths among older people is a huge problem and we are fighting hard.

You know that 10yrs down the road it will boil down to people keeping their aging parents with them. Ol' school. I know that wish I could. Covid or not.
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Old 23.04.2020, 14:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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Alternative view from Sweden, "Why lockdown is wrong'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfN2...VlQk2e2DarCV60
Seems like you missed the memo about posting news about Sweden
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