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Old 27.04.2020, 16:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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You'll be fine. It's time to live a normal life again.
The first sentence is true as long as all observe the protection rules (which include that you turn up at the hairdresser with a face mask - you have to have one and the hairdresser isn't obliged to provide)

The second sentence is not true. We're going to be on distancing for a long while yet. Unless you fancy a second wave and another and stricter lockdown.

https://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/so-schu...e-780871320070 (requires registration)
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  #8382  
Old 27.04.2020, 16:26
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Re: Coronavirus

With Switzerland approaching 100 new cases per day (from the 1200 a day 3 weeks ago) can we say now that no wave is about to come in Switzerland like in Italy? And that all those "We are 1-2-3 weeks behind Italy's scenario" were completely wrong?

Comparison between Italy and Switzerland

- Almost the same number of tests done per 1M population (29k Italy vs 28k Switzerland)
- Almost the same infected rate per 1M population (3269 Italy vs 3370 Switzerland)
-Switzerland 60% less deaths per 1M (440 Italy vs 189 Switzerland)


-No strict quarantine in Switzerland, Italy in complete lock down 4 days before Switzerland's closure
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  #8383  
Old 27.04.2020, 16:31
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Re: Coronavirus

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With Switzerland approaching 100 new cases per day (from the 1200 a day 3 weeks ago) can we say now that no wave is about to come in Switzerland like in Italy? And that all those "We are 1-2-3 weeks behind Italy's scenario" were completely wrong?
What part of "flatten the curve" is in a language you don't understand?
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  #8384  
Old 27.04.2020, 16:39
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Re: Coronavirus

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With Switzerland approaching 100 new cases per day (from the 1200 a day 3 weeks ago) can we say now that no wave is about to come in Switzerland like in Italy? And that all those "We are 1-2-3 weeks behind Italy's scenario" were completely wrong?

Comparison between Italy and Switzerland

- Almost the same number of tests done per 1M population (29k Italy vs 28k Switzerland)
- Almost the same infected rate per 1M population (3269 Italy vs 3370 Switzerland)
-Switzerland 60% less deaths per 1M (440 Italy vs 189 Switzerland)


-No strict quarantine in Switzerland, Italy in complete lock down 4 days before Switzerland's closure
No. Quite the opposite. It has been very similar, main difference is the Swiss health system is better able to cope (and I would hope so given how much it costs us!). Also seems Switzerland has done a better job of keeping it out of care homes (therefore actually a less good job amongst the general public)

Italy's lockdown might be over-strict by Swiss standards - but the less rule abiding nature of Italian society probably made that necessary.

Both have the risk of a second wave. The fear is that that comes in June with the final opening here or when bars and restaurants etc. open if distancing isn't maintained.
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Old 27.04.2020, 16:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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What part of "flatten the curve" is in a language you don't understand?
Are we now not past the flattening of the curve and onto the maintaining a steady pace section now? I thought that's why they're removing some of the restrictions.

Then we'll see if the curve starts trending upwards again then the shops will close for another month?
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Old 27.04.2020, 16:46
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Re: Coronavirus

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Thanks for your response. It's interesting to hear how your husband felt about going out. I think it's going to take a great deal of time before people start to feel confident again. Whoever would have thought going to a hairdresser or a hardware store would feel like life and death decisions?
I suppose whether it's "life or death decision" very much depends on one's personal circumstances. Mr Wishes and I are young (enough) and healthy. I am not afraid for myself or him in the least. If I/we get this, the odds of me dying are minuscule. Not zero, but so small that I'm going to live my life as soon as I'm able, with reasonable precautions.

I have an important follow-up doctor's appointment tomorrow that has been scheduled for months. I'm going, no question about it. I'll take our car instead of public transport and wear a mask when in the practice, and carry along disinfecting wipes.

I am concerned for his/my elderly parents, both of whom are high risk not just due to age. I also don't want to infect the few elderly folks in my building. We won't see any parents for a while, so nothing I can do there except nag them from afar to be careful. As for those in my building, as said above I'll take reasonable precautions and they should too.

I have no plans to go to the hairdresser soon. I'll let others go, particularly the folks with short hair who probably look a bit shaggy by now. Another month isn't going to make a big difference for me.
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Old 27.04.2020, 16:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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With Switzerland approaching 100 new cases per day (from the 1200 a day 3 weeks ago) can we say now that no wave is about to come in Switzerland like in Italy? And that all those "We are 1-2-3 weeks behind Italy's scenario" were completely wrong?
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Old 27.04.2020, 16:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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Are we now not past the flattening of the curve and onto the maintaining a steady pace section now? I thought that's why they're removing some of the restrictions.

Then we'll see if the curve starts trending upwards again then the shops will close for another month?
That's not at all what V is claiming. He implies that all(!) measures were wrong and useless.
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Old 27.04.2020, 16:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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I have no plans to go to the hairdresser soon. I'll let others go, particularly the folks with short hair who probably look a bit shaggy by now. Another month isn't going to make a big difference for me.

That can be cured with some hair clippers, not the best haircut but it does the job :-)
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Old 27.04.2020, 16:57
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Re: Coronavirus

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That's not at all what V is claiming. He claims that all(!) measures were wrong and useless.
Not all, social distancing and hygiene have given most results. Complete lock down and scaring people into a panic that most of them don't seek medical help - are killing far more people that we can imagine
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Old 27.04.2020, 17:01
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Not all, social distancing and hygiene have given most results. Complete lock down and scaring people into a panic that most of them don't seek medical help - are killing far more people that we can imagine
You're still about the only one bringing up panic every time.

If it is all to much for you try a consult with a therapist.
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Old 27.04.2020, 17:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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That's not at all what V is claiming. He claims that all(!) measures were wrong and useless.
Fair enough, I think the measures were beneficial in order to slow the potential overload of the medical system. I'm still concerned about the future impact on the economy and my own selfish problem of my future employment status.

At this point it looks as though the parachute could be smaller rather than ditched altogether. We still have the reserve chute of re-implementing the measures.

Last edited by Ato; 27.04.2020 at 17:03. Reason: re-implementing
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Old 27.04.2020, 17:08
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Re: Coronavirus

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With Switzerland approaching 100 new cases per day (from the 1200 a day 3 weeks ago) can we say now that no wave is about to come in Switzerland like in Italy? And that all those "We are 1-2-3 weeks behind Italy's scenario" were completely wrong?

Comparison between Italy and Switzerland

- Almost the same number of tests done per 1M population (29k Italy vs 28k Switzerland)
- Almost the same infected rate per 1M population (3269 Italy vs 3370 Switzerland)
-Switzerland 60% less deaths per 1M (440 Italy vs 189 Switzerland)


-No strict quarantine in Switzerland, Italy in complete lock down 4 days before Switzerland's closure
You cannot say that no wave is about to come to Switzerland like in Italy when you already posted the infected rate per 1M population is about the same? The wave is already here.
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Old 27.04.2020, 17:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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You cannot say that no wave is about to come to Switzerland like in Italy when you already posted the infected rate per 1M population is about the same? The wave is already here.
It's been waived.
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Old 27.04.2020, 17:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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Based on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus the figure look grim with a staggering 21% death rate.

But if we could move this forward 2 weeks if we say that:

- All the mild condition case recover
- All the serious/critical cases die


Then we add the 'a' figures to 'x' and the 'b' figures to 'y'. At that stage Closed Cases would be:

x = 1,382,855
y = 136,716
z = 1,591,571

This would mean the death rate would be 8.59% (136,716/1,591,571). Not 21%.

Now, add to this that not all Serious/Critical will die and that the 'Active Cases' are only those tested and there are VERY conservatively a minimum double that who have a mild form at home and are self-isolating. (I know of two households in the UK and 1 in Switzerland in this situation.)

This would bring 'x' to 2,765,710 conservatively.
And if 20% of 'b' recover this figure would be 38,533

The resulting death rate of all age groups would be 1.4%.

I feel it is likely the asymptomatic (no symptoms - rated at 80% in China(!)) and untested cases would raise the figure for Recovered to well below 1%.

Applying the known figures for Switzerland
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...y/switzerland/
we have:

23,280 known cases
895 deaths
9,800 recovered.

Thus a Swiss death rate of 9% (895/9,800)

If the criteria that reduced the global figure of 21% is applied to the Swiss figures we get:

9% x 1.4/21 = 0.6%

These are conservative figures and the age range of deaths and pre-existing conditions have not been considered.

...or are all my conclusions tosh??
Well, I waited for two weeks and on April 23rd the closed case death rate was still 21% not 8.59%; what went wrong?
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Old 27.04.2020, 17:20
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Re: Coronavirus

Hmmm. Coming from a place of scepticism and markets that opened on Saturday and filled with hundreds upon hundreds...re-implementing measures as efficiently is a dream. You cannot flatten 2nd time the same way, it will be a different beast all together. You keep people home for too long and it backfires. You don't and it backfires. There must be some middle ground somewhere, it probably wears a mask and is taking continuously care of new waves of infection that are neither low nor high. I think these calculations and models are being worked on now
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Old 27.04.2020, 17:24
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Re: Coronavirus

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Well, I waited for two weeks and on April 23rd the closed case death rate was still 21% not 8.59%; what went wrong?
I don't think anything went wrong per se. The closed case death rate today on Worldometers is 19%. It looks to me as if countries are much slower to count someone as recovered vs counting them as dead. There are still more than 1.9 million active cases that haven't been classified as either one. Thus why the percentages aren't changing a lot yet.

Edit - Rough calculation with Swiss numbers as of today shows our death rate down to 6.2%, so the numbers are moving in the right direction. As we test more people the denominator is going to get larger and the death rate will go down further.
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Old 27.04.2020, 17:29
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Re: Coronavirus

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Well, I waited for two weeks and on April 23rd the closed case death rate was still 21% not 8.59%; what went wrong?
Known cases is a small subset of actual cases.
If you want to rely upon deaths per closed cases, then look only at countries with a very high testing rate per million and a high rate of closed cases vs total cases. (ie Iceland, Bahrain, Malta)
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Old 27.04.2020, 17:30
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I don't think anything went wrong per se. The closed case death rate today on Worldometers is 19%. It looks to me as if countries are much slower to count someone as recovered vs counting them as dead. There are still more than 1.9 million active cases that haven't been classified as either one. Thus why the percentages aren't changing a lot yet.
Most countries on that list hardly give any proper numbers as for recoveries (which automatically screws up amount of active cases)

A lot of the people identified also just got a "stay at home for some weeks and you'll be fine, and in case of troubles give us a call" without any further follow up.

I think this also explains why some countries show sudden large peaks in recoveries, sort of like they do something like "tested positive, but heard nothing for two weeks or more means recovered" every now and then just to clean up.
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Old 27.04.2020, 17:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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Edit - Rough calculation with Swiss numbers as of today shows our death rate down to 6.2%, so the numbers are moving in the right direction. As we test more people the denominator is going to get larger and the death rate will go down further.
The Swiss recovered number is a estimation by journalists using a model.
https://interaktiv.tagesanzeiger.ch/...-im-vergleich/ (sorry paywall)
The model used is this one:
https://www.baselland.ch/politik-und...eheilte_BL.pdf
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