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  #8781  
Old 03.05.2020, 11:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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What does that even mean?

What did the original research actually conclude? A 30% increase in... what?
A 30% increase in health of course. How one quantifies health is anyone’s guess. 🤷🏼♀️
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  #8782  
Old 03.05.2020, 12:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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Reading comprehension issues? It was clearly stated that there was a 30% increase in "Health". I asked my son. He told me that it is a video game terminology: when you are taking a beating, you need to take a potion to increase your health. Level Up with Remdesivir.
Rumours say it's the most effective when used as a suppository.
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  #8783  
Old 03.05.2020, 12:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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N.Y.C. Deaths Reach 6 Times the Normal Level, Far More Than Coronavirus Count Suggests

More than 27,000 New Yorkers have died since March 11 — 20,900 more than would be expected over this period and thousands more than have been captured by official coronavirus death statistics.
Source (behind a paywall!)



Will be interesting to see similar statistics from other cities
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  #8784  
Old 03.05.2020, 12:31
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Re: Coronavirus

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What does that even mean?

What did the original research actually conclude? A 30% increase in... what?
Patients who received Remdesivir had a 31% faster recovery time than those who received the placebo according to double blind trials Fauci ran through the NIH.

Hope that clarifies
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  #8785  
Old 03.05.2020, 12:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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Source (behind a paywall!)



Will be interesting to see similar statistics from other cities
Just a flu according to some.

Those people also should read this: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...say-yes-by-far
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  #8786  
Old 03.05.2020, 12:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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...Fauci led the current Remdesivir study through the NIH and it was a two fold blind study.

So are you saying you agree with the incomplete study coming from China? Hmmm... I am inclined to go with Fauci here and not China given their limited data/study.
Fauci's study is promising, but I wouldn't throw all my eggs in the Remdesivir basket just yet. First, it didn't show a statistically significant difference in fatality rates, and improved recovery by an average of only 4 days. Still, if I'm really sick, I'll take those 4 days.

Some interesting info about the study, namely that the goal was changed partway through and appears the changes have made it easier to reach that goal.

https://www.healthnewsreview.org/202...desivir-trial/

and the actual changes to the goals
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/histo...e#StudyPageTop

Also this one has not yet been peer-reviewed, but the one in the Lancet was. I'm for cautious optimism.

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So how long are all these rules supposed to apply-2m distance,masks at hairdresser etc etc. Slowly one has the gut full from all these Govt rules and regulations!
I don't think we're going to be out from under them any time soon, and it's going to be an inconsistent mess.

Most people in Switzerland commute on public transport, which simply can't distance everyone by 2m. Yet once we get to town, we're supposed to queue 2m apart outside the store, stand behind the yellow line, etc. It's a nice idea but people aren't going to follow it for long because they're already fed up and it's inconvenient.

Check out this test McDonald's site in the Netherlands:
https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdo...20-5?r=US&IR=T

Sorry, but this is absurd. For that hassle, I'd skip it. I understand they're doing what they can within the rules, but I don't see customers at lunch time queuing up like that.
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  #8787  
Old 03.05.2020, 13:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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Fauci's study is promising, but I wouldn't throw all my eggs in the Remdesivir basket just yet. First, it didn't show a statistically significant difference in fatality rates, and improved recovery by an average of only 4 days. Still, if I'm really sick, I'll take those 4 days.
It's funny, in Canada there is a cold medicine named Cold-FX, which as far as I remember was the only medicine allowed to state on the bottle that it actually shortened the length of the average cold based on their internal testing. Thing was, apparently it only shortened it by 1 day ... and now yeah, I see on Wikipedia that they were sued for misleading advertising.
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  #8788  
Old 03.05.2020, 13:10
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Re: Coronavirus

So remdesivir appears to have modest benefits. It‘s not a panacea.

Under double blind studies, recovery time is shorter and there are fewer deaths, but mortality difference is not statistically significant.

There has not been enough time to gauge either side effects or long term effects.

I think that people are desperate for anything positive, and there is political pressure to have an effective treatment from the Trump camp.....because winning.

It seems to help a little, not a lot. if the cost is reasonable and the side effects tolerable then good.

A lot of other drugs are being „repurposed“ studied to see if they can be of some use, and to understand the functioning of the virus, which might provide a better way to treat it.

The NYT has several articles on remdesivir and drug repurposing. STAT news is also a reasonable source sometimes. I personally stay away from financial news sources, but that‘s my preference.
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  #8789  
Old 03.05.2020, 13:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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Most people in Switzerland commute on public transport, which simply can't distance everyone by 2m. Yet once we get to town, we're supposed to queue 2m apart outside the store, stand behind the yellow line, etc. It's a nice idea but people aren't going to follow it for long because they're already fed up and it's inconvenient.

Check out this test McDonald's site in the Netherlands:
https://www.businessinsider.com/mcdo...20-5?r=US&IR=T

Sorry, but this is absurd. For that hassle, I'd skip it. I understand they're doing what they can within the rules, but I don't see customers at lunch time queuing up like that.
Honestly, personally I don't really care. Fine, if people think 2m distance are needed for everything, I'll keep the 2m distance. If people think masks are needed in some instances or for certain interactions, fine, I'll wear one. I'm neatly keeping distance at stores and also put on the obligatory mask when I went to the hairdresser on Thursday. It doesn't bug me the slightest. I'll take all of that any day over the insanity of the past few weeks if it means we can just go on with our lives. For me, some Swissness is coming through here for once - I don't have to understand, let alone agree that any of this is necessary and I most certainly will continue to critically analyze and reflect on all of it. But I'll do it anyway, if the general assumption is that it makes some difference. Most folks I know see it the same way.

What bugs me by now is the continued dramatization (also Switzerland-specific) when there are no indicators that this is necessary. Granted my fear level is exactly zero, but towards others, how about actually being a little encouraging and optimistic or even grateful that whatever doomsday scenarios were concocted nowhere near materialized (for whatever reason this may be - we'll find out), instead of now adding fuel to the fire by continuing to concoct further doomsday scenarios.
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  #8790  
Old 03.05.2020, 14:45
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Re: Coronavirus

An important point about the use of remdisvir - based on the approval, it‘s only for the sickest patients. So these are the folks without many other options and getting the off the vent is a good thing.

Also, Gilead has 1.5Million vials? I‘ve seen estimates that it‘s probably good for 150k patients. Anyone see anything else?
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  #8791  
Old 03.05.2020, 14:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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What bugs me by now is the continued dramatization (also Switzerland-specific) when there are no indicators that this is necessary. Granted my fear level is exactly zero, but towards others, how about actually being a little encouraging and optimistic or even grateful that whatever doomsday scenarios were concocted nowhere near materialized (for whatever reason this may be - we'll find out), instead of now adding fuel to the fire by continuing to concoct further doomsday scenarios.
Ah ha! So the key words have switched from 'panic' to 'fear level' and 'doomsday scenarios'? Strikes me as a bit bullish to be honest.

The inbred nugget of trepidation that the majority of us have, is what's got us to the age we are. We seek knowledge to understand risk factors. We (hopefully) use that knowledge to adjust our behaviours slightly to reduce or minimise risk. Those measures lift our mood and increase our confidence. Those behaviours become ingrained. We don't go jogging in flip-flops. We don't sit out for hours in 38 degree sun without sun protection. We wear warm clothes when it snows. We naturally adjust to our environment. It's all second nature to us, and for a while, a cluster of new measures and behaviours will also become second nature to us. It's not a big deal.
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  #8792  
Old 03.05.2020, 14:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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Ah ha! So the key words have switched from 'panic' to 'fear level' and 'doomsday scenarios'? Strikes me as a bit bullish to be honest.
Nope, very sorry to disappoint you, I've been using all three from the beginning
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  #8793  
Old 03.05.2020, 15:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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What bugs me by now is the continued dramatization (also Switzerland-specific) when there are no indicators that this is necessary. Granted my fear level is exactly zero, but towards others, how about actually being a little encouraging and optimistic or even grateful that whatever doomsday scenarios were concocted nowhere near materialized (for whatever reason this may be - we'll find out), instead of now adding fuel to the fire by continuing to concoct further doomsday scenarios.
But are they really Doomsday scenarii ?
The Spanish flu of 1918 started in January of 1918 and finished in December 1920. That’s 3 years. According to history it was the 2nd wave that was the most arduous.
Wouldn’t it be a mistake to believe this is over?
We’re stuck with it until there’s immunity or a vaccine.
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  #8794  
Old 03.05.2020, 15:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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But are they really Doomsday scenarii ?
The Spanish flu of 1918 started in January of 1918 and finished in December 1920. That’s 3 years. According to history it was the 2nd wave that was the most arduous.
Wouldn’t it be a mistake to believe this is over?
We’re stuck with it until there’s immunity or a vaccine.
But we are not in 1918, there has been "a little bit of" medical progress in the last 100 years, we are not in economic and financial ruins (yet) and we did not just come out of a major world war (we may still get major conflict if this continues for too long of course, but at least we haven't just had that).

Of course it's not over. It will never be over. It will go nowhere and for 99.5%+ of us rich folks (and even many of the not-so-rich), it won't matter any more or less than many other diseases, from a health-perspectice that is.

On your second question: how are you going to reach immunity unless you go back to mostly normal? Not to mention, again, that a vaccine, too, won't make the disease disappear, but see previous paragraph above.

But again, I've had this discussion a thousand times now. There is no option other than to go back to more or less normal, keep a constant eye on possible strains on healthcare systems (the ONLY reason for lockdowns) and otherwise just let things run their course with the help of certain restrictions. That is all anyone can do. Yet again nurturing worst-case scenarios won't help in any way and if anything, lead to resistance at some point, the consequences of which will be worse on many more levels. So it's a significantly better idea to be cautious but optimistic and encourage continued compliance.

Last edited by Samaire13; 03.05.2020 at 15:16.
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  #8795  
Old 03.05.2020, 15:39
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Re: Coronavirus

@Samaire13
"whatever doomsday scenarios were concocted nowhere near materialized"
It all depends on how you define "doomsday" I suppose.
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©NYTimes
EDIT: and this is with lockdown.
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  #8796  
Old 03.05.2020, 15:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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An important point about the use of remdisvir - based on the approval, it‘s only for the sickest patients. So these are the folks without many other options and getting the off the vent is a good thing.

Also, Gilead has 1.5Million vials? I‘ve seen estimates that it‘s probably good for 150k patients. Anyone see anything else?
Speaking of STAT, here is an interview with the CEO of Gilead which addresses inventory and plans to ramp up supply:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/29/...th-remdesivir/
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  #8797  
Old 03.05.2020, 15:44
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Re: Coronavirus

Ok marton a) you seemed to miss the point where I was, in this instance, talking about Switzerland specifically.

And b) since your main contribution is to add pics and links to graphs and articles (for all of which you can find other articles that would say the opposite), I'd like to hear what your grand and realistic suggestion then would be as to the way forward. Let's assume that if we all go back to normal, step by step, and there will be this huuuuge wave and millions will die within a month - then what? Elaborate. And it's safe to assume that locking in 7.7bn people until there's a vaccine isn't a plan (not to mention that there'd be no one financing, developing or producing that vaccine and even if they did somehow, a vaccine won't... - well see above)

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  #8798  
Old 03.05.2020, 17:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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Of course it's not over. It will never be over.
Of course it will.
Your choice of words surrounding this are incredibly paranoid.

As for remdesivir, the failed drug developed to treat Ebola, and which has now been resurrected as a possible illness shortening treatment for Covid-19, well I guess that's one way to shift defunct stock and recoup your losses on the development investment. I'll treat that with a huge pinch of salt and a healthy dollop of cynicism on the side until some positive trials results are published in mid-May.
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  #8799  
Old 03.05.2020, 17:37
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Re: Coronavirus

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Speaking of STAT, here is an interview with the CEO of Gilead which addresses inventory and plans to ramp up supply:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/29/...th-remdesivir/
Interesting interview, thanks for the links. I know it‘s a corporate entity, but I just cringed at that part where he mentioned markets opening and so on. Yeah, I know they need investors. But I also know that lots of drug development is funded by grants.

I hope he is walking the talk and if the drug is indicated, it remains available and affordable.
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Old 03.05.2020, 17:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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Of course it will.
Your choice of words surrounding this are incredibly paranoid.
Sigh. You're right, among the EFers, I'm definitely the paranoid one
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