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  #8821  
Old 04.05.2020, 09:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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Switzerland is opening - only the elderly remain isolated
The over 65-year-olds still have to wait for easing. Many withdraw and become lonely. Now they are resisting their exclusion. The people in elderly nursing homes are being imprisoned. Its called false imprisonment!!

https://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/die-sch...t-592124565676

Tessin is the worst in this respect!! But again Tessin is anyhow out of touch with the world
Well, maybe that's because many elderly who are spending their retirement in senior houses were among the most affected demographic groups. Worldwide.
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  #8822  
Old 04.05.2020, 10:42
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Re: Coronavirus

First case of corona in France was 27th of December, a local man who didn't travel. That is 1 month before the official first case in France.

As it seems the virus is spread much more than some people think...

https://www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/un-...bondy-20200503
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  #8823  
Old 04.05.2020, 11:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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The new Roche test looks promising...

MAY 3, 2020 / 1:12 PM / UPDATED 4 HOURS AGO
'ZURICH (Reuters) - Roche aims to more than double production of its new coronavirus antibody test to “significantly more than” 100 million tests a month by the end of the year, the company’s diagnostics unit head said on Sunday.

The Swiss company won U.S. emergency use approval for the test that relies on taking intravenous blood draws. Roche said its test has a specificity rate of more than 99.8% and sensitivity rate of 100%, figures indicating very few false-positive tests and no false negatives.'

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-r...-idUSKBN22F0G6
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“If you take blood from a finger prick, you will never be able to achieve the same level of specificity that you will achieve...when you take blood from the vein,” Roche diagnostics head Thomas Schinecker told Reuters on Sunday. “You have to have very, very high specificity. Even 0.1 or 0.2 percent makes a difference.”
It's a pity Theranos is not with us anymore, they'd argue this
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  #8824  
Old 04.05.2020, 11:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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First case of corona in France was 27th of December, a local man who didn't travel. That is 1 month before the official first case in France.

As it seems the virus is spread much more than some people think...

https://www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/un-...bondy-20200503
So maybe it didn't originate in China after all. Maybe the Chinese are right, and it was a US military plot. Plenty of fodder there for tinfoil enthusiasts.
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  #8825  
Old 04.05.2020, 11:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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So maybe it didn't originate in China after all. Maybe the Chinese are right, and it was a US military plot. Plenty of fodder there for tinfoil enthusiasts.
Tinfoil enthusiasts or agitators?
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  #8826  
Old 04.05.2020, 11:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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So maybe it didn't originate in China after all. Maybe the Chinese are right, and it was a US military plot. Plenty of fodder there for tinfoil enthusiasts.
Or it's simply been here for months and months and for whatever reason, no one really noticed.

It's really massively unlikely that until early March, there was nothing anywhere other than in one province in China. Nothing was shut down, no flights were cancelled, people these days travel all over the place and did so well into mid-March. Even Wuhan didn't close down for a whole month since they presumably discovered the first case.

But assuming it's actually been all over the place since late December or at least early January, why and how the hell did it take more than two months for cases to seemingly "explode"? Something off about this timeline, but I guess we'll never know.

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It's a pity Theranos is not with us anymore, they'd argue this
That one ever go to jail?
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Old 04.05.2020, 12:31
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Re: Coronavirus

Yes it's Monday again and another hard day at the Office ( Home ) where collar and tie standards
are maintained at all times during those all important video conference business meetings.


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  #8828  
Old 04.05.2020, 12:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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Or it's simply been here for months and months and for whatever reason, no one really noticed.

It's really massively unlikely that until early March, there was nothing anywhere other than in one province in China. Nothing was shut down, no flights were cancelled, people these days travel all over the place and did so well into mid-March. Even Wuhan didn't close down for a whole month since they presumably discovered the first case.

But assuming it's actually been all over the place since late December or at least early January, why and how the hell did it take more than two months for cases to seemingly "explode"? Something off about this timeline, but I guess we'll never know.
Because even at an R of 3 (2 to 3 seems usual) it takes about 2 weeks from first infection to even get 100 infections and another week for those to actually become visible through symptoms. Add in to that the fact that those first cases will be almost exclusively younger, non-vulnerable who will dismiss the infection as just another cold that gap gets even longer. It takes a while for the infection to get at the more vulnerable, less travelling, less likely to go to large events crowd.
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  #8829  
Old 04.05.2020, 12:46
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Re: Coronavirus

And for those working in a casual wear working environment we recommend this.

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Old 04.05.2020, 12:50
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Re: Coronavirus

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/mo...GsX?li=BBnb7Kz

Not the first time a huge proportion of symptom-free positives is reported.
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Old 04.05.2020, 12:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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Or it's simply been here for months and months and for whatever reason, no one really noticed.

It's really massively unlikely that until early March, there was nothing anywhere other than in one province in China. Nothing was shut down, no flights were cancelled, people these days travel all over the place and did so well into mid-March. Even Wuhan didn't close down for a whole month since they presumably discovered the first case.

But assuming it's actually been all over the place since late December or at least early January, why and how the hell did it take more than two months for cases to seemingly "explode"? Something off about this timeline, but I guess we'll never know.
1 - 2 - 4 - 8- 16 - 32 - 64 - 128 - 256 - 512 - 1024

About 3 days in between each step.
Assume half show no symptoms.
Flu-season still going on and mostly similar symptoms, and flu is diagnosed by opinion and exclusion not by testing for influenza, so easily to make a mistake here.
An IFR much higher than the flu but still lower than 1%
Attention from GP's wasn't there yet, and if so they could not test for Covid-19

Basically a first month of such disease spreading hardly anything happens and there are only a few rare cases that might have been noticed.
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  #8832  
Old 04.05.2020, 12:57
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Re: Coronavirus

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Because even at an R of 3 (2 to 3 seems usual) it takes about 2 weeks from first infection to even get 100 infections and another week for those to actually become visible through symptoms. Add in to that the fact that those first cases will be almost exclusively younger, non-vulnerable who will dismiss the infection as just another cold that gap gets even longer. It takes a while for the infection to get at the more vulnerable, less travelling, less likely to go to large events crowd.
Makes sense. 3 months still seems long, but makes sense.
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  #8833  
Old 04.05.2020, 13:09
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Re: Coronavirus

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And for those working in a casual wear working environment we recommend this.

Attachment 139365
Still working from home but enjoying the beach as lockdown restrictions are eased while looking professional at
all times.

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  #8834  
Old 04.05.2020, 13:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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Switzerland is opening - only the elderly remain isolated
The over 65-year-olds still have to wait for easing. Many withdraw and become lonely. Now they are resisting their exclusion.
And the families that are shielding children or people with disabilities or people whose immune system is depressed or people with cancer, etc... It's not just the elderly by a long way.
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  #8835  
Old 04.05.2020, 13:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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Still working from home but enjoying the beach as lockdown restrictions are eased while looking professional at
all times.
OK, we got it: you're a good-looking and very busy fellow.
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  #8836  
Old 04.05.2020, 13:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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Or it's simply been here for months and months and for whatever reason, no one really noticed.

It's really massively unlikely that until early March, there was nothing anywhere other than in one province in China.
Well documented so I've no idea how or why you made this statement

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-...y_or_territory
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Old 04.05.2020, 14:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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Flu-season still going on and mostly similar symptoms, and flu is diagnosed by opinion and exclusion not by testing for influenza, so easily to make a mistake here.
An IFR much higher than the flu but still lower than 1%
Attention from GP's wasn't there yet, and if so they could not test for Covid-19

Basically a first month of such disease spreading hardly anything happens and there are only a few rare cases that might have been noticed.
Mortality wise the flue season was mild/bellow average, thanks due that A(H3N2) was not prevalent. If COVID-19 was really masked by the flu, than it did it really well or the strain circulating back than was less deadly.
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  #8838  
Old 04.05.2020, 14:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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First case of corona in France was 27th of December, a local man who didn't travel. That is 1 month before the official first case in France.

As it seems the virus is spread much more than some people think...

https://www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/un-...bondy-20200503
A study from Germany believes that the number of infected is 10 times higher than originally believed. If this is the case, then the argument for lockdown becomes loses even more weight.

https://www.stern.de/gesundheit/-hei...r-9249388.html
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Old 04.05.2020, 14:16
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Re: Coronavirus

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So maybe it didn't originate in China after all. Maybe the Chinese are right, and it was a US military plot. Plenty of fodder there for tinfoil enthusiasts.
If memory serves, some theorise that the virus "jumped" to humans using one or more species as intermediate hosts, as stepping stones if you will. If that's true, then it may be possible that animals from that/those intermediate species may have been imported into Europe, which then may have allowed the virus jumping to humans in multiple locations.

So far that's just speculation, mind.
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Old 04.05.2020, 14:17
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Re: Coronavirus

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Mortality wise the flue season was mild/bellow average, thanks due that A(H3N2) was not prevalent. If COVID-19 was really masked by the flu, than it did it really well or the strain circulating back than was less deadly.
Many people even today with all their knowledge about symptoms and such have no clue if they had/have the flu, a common cold or corona.

And less deadly, well it takes some weeks in between getting infected and actually dying, combine that with a low IFR and it would only be a few people dying which gives little to mask, easily to misdiagnose especially when people do not get tested for influenza. We all been ill in this household end of Feb, early March, me and my wife suffered the worst "flu" ever with more different symptoms at the same time than we ever had with a flu, and in contrary to normally in this household our kid who otherwise is most effected only had a high temp for some time and that was all. We all were checked for some other infections which turned out negative so the untested diagnose was the flu, however nobody knows for real what we had, could be the flu, could be corona could be something else. And like us there are many others.

It's not hard to hide if nobody is looking for you.
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