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  #9081  
Old 07.05.2020, 12:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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Actually as of 19 April calculated at 1,520. So almost 4 times your "I think". By now that would be up near 2,000 given the recorded CV deaths since.

https://www.srf.ch/news/internationa...na-todeszahlen
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In Kalenderwoche 14 (endete am 5. 4.) waren 411 Todesfälle bei Menschen über 65 Jahren mehr verzeichnet, als statistisch zu diesem Zeitpunkt zu erwarten wäre. In den Folgewochen ist die Zahl aber wieder zurückgegangen, in der Kalenderwoche 17 (endete am 26. 4.) starben nur leicht mehr Menschen, als statistisch etwartet wurde.

Zum Vergleich: Am Höhepunkt der Grippewelle 2015 gab es rund 270 Todesfälle mehr als erwartet worden waren, 2017 waren es 230 mehr. Sämtliche Fälle der aktuellen Übersterblichkeit aber allein Covid-19 anzurechnen wäre falsch, denn die Lungenkrankheit ist selten die einzige Todesursache. Viele Patienten haben zum Teil schwere Vorerkrankungen. Bei den Personen unter 65 Jahren zeigt sich die Übersterblichkeit laut den Zahlen des Bundesamtes für Statistik aktuell nicht.
https://www.nzz.ch/panorama/die-wich...rus-ld.1542774, which is based on: https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/de/home...sursachen.html

411 more than during normal times by end of week April 5 (i.e. height of the crisis), decline since then, with "only very few excess" after that. Comparison: at the height of 2015 and 2017 flu seasons, it was 270 and 230 respectively in excess of average.

So yeah actually, my "I think" based on what I had read was pretty accurate.

No excess mortality in population under 65.
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  #9082  
Old 07.05.2020, 12:17
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Re: Coronavirus

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Lockdown for the rest of the year?
Not strict lockdown, but you know, distancing, masks on public transport, restricted air travel etc.
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  #9083  
Old 07.05.2020, 12:36
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Re: Coronavirus

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https://www.nzz.ch/panorama/die-wich...rus-ld.1542774, which is based on: https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/de/home...sursachen.html

411 more than during normal times by end of week April 5 (i.e. height of the crisis), decline since then, with "only very few excess" after that. Comparison: at the height of 2015 and 2017 flu seasons, it was 270 and 230 respectively in excess of average.

So yeah actually, my "I think" based on what I had read was pretty accurate.

No excess mortality in population under 65.
Actually the BAG link shows about 1,100 extra above the maximum expected from weeks 13 to 17 and about 1,500 above the normal expected. Look at the csv file attached.

So yes, the SF reported number is correct according to your own link to the source data.

Edit. The 411 is for week 14 ALONE. Not year to date or anything. Still think your "I think" was accurate?
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  #9084  
Old 07.05.2020, 12:38
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Re: Coronavirus

Remember those images of coffins lined up waiting for army trucks to take them in Bergamo? Some EFers members were posting them a while back.

Fake news. Those images were from a boat accident Italy in 2013
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  #9085  
Old 07.05.2020, 12:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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Remember those images of coffins lined up waiting for army trucks to take them in Bergamo? Some EFers members were posting them a while back.

Fake news. Those images were from a boat accident Italy in 2013
Usual rule applies. Don't believe anything from social media unless verified to a reliable source. Although I don't recall it being copied to here.

BTW I know people living in Bergamo (BiL has connections there)...well sadly 2 less now. Regardless of any photos, there it was really bad.
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  #9086  
Old 07.05.2020, 12:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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Remember those images of coffins lined up waiting for army trucks to take them in Bergamo? Some EFers members were posting them a while back.

Fake news. Those images were from a boat accident Italy in 2013
They also used pics somewhere from the aftermath of an earthquake, claiming it was corona-related...

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Actually the BAG link shows about 1,100 extra above the maximum expected from weeks 13 to 17 and about 1,500 above the normal expected. Look at the csv file attached.

So yes, the SF reported number is correct according to your own link to the source data.

Edit. The 411 is for week 14 ALONE. Not year to date or anything. Still think your "I think" was accurate?
Correct, it does refer to one week, but it says that in the subsequent weeks, there was "barely any excess" above what would be expected statistically, which also always comes with a range. Most importantly, there's previous periods of excess mortality, and compared to those, there seems to be a small difference. All compare week-by-week and heigh-of-crisis with height-of-crisis. I'm confused why you would believe the Bundesamt für Statistik - which this is based on - wouldn't be accurate given that's most likely as reliable a source as one can get, or why there is this need to make it look so much worse than it appears to have been. I will look at the SRF file in more detail though and try to make sense of it. Snark-free and all.
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  #9087  
Old 07.05.2020, 12:51
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Re: Coronavirus

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Usual rule applies. Don't believe anything from social media unless verified to a reliable source.
Well finally we agree on something (genuine, no sarcasm)
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  #9088  
Old 07.05.2020, 13:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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Do you have a link to your prediction and the consequent accusation, I do not remember any of that?

https://www.englishforum.ch/3168935-post6643.html

https://www.englishforum.ch/3169171-post6687.html
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  #9089  
Old 07.05.2020, 14:24
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Re: Coronavirus

Nice surprise today, a box of masks and a hand disinfectant in my post box; compliments of my Gemeinde.
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Old 07.05.2020, 14:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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https://www.nzz.ch/panorama/die-wich...rus-ld.1542774, which is based on: https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/de/home...sursachen.html

411 more than during normal times by end of week April 5 (i.e. height of the crisis), decline since then, with "only very few excess" after that. Comparison: at the height of 2015 and 2017 flu seasons, it was 270 and 230 respectively in excess of average.

So yeah actually, my "I think" based on what I had read was pretty accurate.

No excess mortality in population under 65.
From the SRF link
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The impression that the corona pandemic is less bad than the flu is wrong, says Richard Neher, professor of biophysics at the University of Basel in the SRF program «10vor10»: «You have to bear in mind that the flu wave of 2015 affected the whole of Switzerland and was not prematurely contained by the social distancing measures that we now have. »
In addition, the number of corona deaths for this year is only valid until April 19
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Old 07.05.2020, 14:48
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Re: Coronavirus

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Correct, it does refer to one week, but it says that in the subsequent weeks, there was "barely any excess" above what would be expected statistically, which also always comes with a range.
No it doesn't. It says in week 17 (ALONE) there was hardly any excess and that the excess declined from weeks 14 to 17. It does not say there was barely any excess from weeks 14 to 17.

As I said before, there is a csv file linked from the BAG report where you can see the raw data. Open it up and compare the expected and actual deaths for weeks 13 to 17 for yourself.
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Old 07.05.2020, 15:03
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Re: Coronavirus

Is anyone able to explain to me how super smug Germany have been able to come out of this with so few deaths in relation to the other larger European nations?

I'm struggling to see how for a virus where there is no cure can have affected them less than other countries. Germany didn't go into lockdown particularly early compared to neighbouring countries, they were successful at ramping up testing however the vast majority of tests came back negative. The healthcare system hasn't been overrun, but neither was it in France or the UK.

Could it just be that there were less infections there to begin with? Or that the majority of those affected were young so that they were more likely to recover? Culture, population density, elderly taking the risk seriously?
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Old 07.05.2020, 15:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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Is anyone able to explain to me how super smug Germany have been able to come out of this with so few deaths in relation to the other larger European nations?

I'm struggling to see how for a virus where there is no cure can have affected them less than other countries. Germany didn't go into lockdown particularly early compared to neighbouring countries, they were successful at ramping up testing however the vast majority of tests came back negative. The healthcare system hasn't been overrun, but neither was it in France or the UK.

Could it just be that there were less infections there to begin with? Or that the majority of those affected were young so that they were more likely to recover? Culture, population density, elderly taking the risk seriously?
Keeping amount of infections relatively low, they did huge testing and thus appeared to have huge numbers, but surrounding countries only tested people who needed medical attention for long time, where Germany tested whole companies if only a person had it, thus also finding a lot of people showing no to little symptoms, they could include those people in the lists, here they are in the so-called black number. Truth is that on percentage they are just hit much less hard than for example Italy.
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Old 07.05.2020, 15:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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Is anyone able to explain to me how super smug Germany have been able to come out of this with so few deaths in relation to the other larger European nations?

I'm struggling to see how for a virus where there is no cure can have affected them less than other countries. Germany didn't go into lockdown particularly early compared to neighbouring countries, they were successful at ramping up testing however the vast majority of tests came back negative. The healthcare system hasn't been overrun, but neither was it in France or the UK.

Could it just be that there were less infections there to begin with? Or that the majority of those affected were young so that they were more likely to recover? Culture, population density, elderly taking the risk seriously?
Maybe.....poverty kills (stress, anxiety and over lower health) and in Germany the elder generation is OK. Poverty is skewed into the unskilled young with children.
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  #9095  
Old 07.05.2020, 15:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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Keeping amount of infections relatively low, they did huge testing and thus appeared to have huge numbers, but surrounding countries only tested people who needed medical attention for long time, where Germany tested whole companies if only a person had it, thus also finding a lot of people showing no to little symptoms, they could include those people in the lists, here they are in the so-called black number. Truth is that on percentage they are just hit much less hard than for example Italy.
That's my hunch, that although they tested a lot, it'll be a long time before we know what percentage of the population was actually infected in relation to France, Spain etc.
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Old 07.05.2020, 15:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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Maybe.....poverty kills (stress, anxiety and over lower health) and in Germany the elder generation is OK. Poverty is skewed into the unskilled young with children.
Perhaps, but I think age, underlying health conditions and ethnicity are bigger factors than poverty. Despite what one reads in the newspapers, the statistics still show that anyone under 60 who is otherwise healthy is over 99% likely to come through the virus unscathed.
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Old 07.05.2020, 15:18
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Maybe.....poverty kills (stress, anxiety and over lower health) and in Germany the elder generation is OK. Poverty is skewed into the unskilled young with children.
How would that explain Switzerland having 2,5 times as much deaths? (based on population)

Only valid explanation is less infections.
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Old 07.05.2020, 15:27
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Re: Coronavirus

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Perhaps, but I think age, underlying health conditions and ethnicity are bigger factors than poverty. Despite what one reads in the newspapers, the statistics still show that anyone under 60 who is otherwise healthy is over 99% likely to come through the virus unscathed.
Which newspapers and what are they writing?
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Old 07.05.2020, 15:29
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Re: Coronavirus

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Is anyone able to explain to me how super smug Germany have been able to come out of this with so few deaths in relation to the other larger European nations?

I'm struggling to see how for a virus where there is no cure can have affected them less than other countries. Germany didn't go into lockdown particularly early compared to neighbouring countries, they were successful at ramping up testing however the vast majority of tests came back negative. The healthcare system hasn't been overrun, but neither was it in France or the UK.

Could it just be that there were less infections there to begin with? Or that the majority of those affected were young so that they were more likely to recover? Culture, population density, elderly taking the risk seriously?
I can only assume that Covid19 met it's match when confronted by legendary German efficiency.
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Old 07.05.2020, 15:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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Remember those images of coffins lined up waiting for army trucks to take them in Bergamo? Some EFers members were posting them a while back.

Fake news. Those images were from a boat accident Italy in 2013
Fake by whom, which major news outlet(s)? Why doesn't afp.com link at least one article where they claim that picture was used?

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