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Old 08.05.2020, 13:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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I guess so, so you think the low fatality rate in Germany is mainly down to a general lower rate of infection?
Compare it to some neighbours, Germany found 22,92 infected person per current death, France found 6,73, the Netherlands found 7,9, Belgium 6,1. Germany has been much more effective with testing, and sure some cultural differences could explain part of it, but not such huge differences in difference on amount of deaths on the entire population and especially the Netherlands and Germany are not really that different, the dutch also like to put their old people in homes and forget about them. Germany simply had "luck" with a lower infection rate.

EDIT: Always feel pity for those who groan but refuse to post what is wrong with a post.

Last edited by EdwinNL; 08.05.2020 at 17:31.
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  #9142  
Old 08.05.2020, 15:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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I guess so, so you think the low fatality rate in Germany is mainly down to a general lower rate of infection?
Which rate, incidence? The more you test the more incidents you find (without significantly increasing the counted death toll) thus the lower the IFR.

I blame the Robert-Koch Institute (RKI) and bow to them.

Of course there are other factors as well, including geographical distance (from northern Italy), politician's willingness to put partisanship aside and follow the scients' advice, the population's common sense and willingness to play along, as well as their general support of the measures taken. Contrary to, say, France there was no mass exodus to the rural areas when the lockdown was put in place. Of course that exodus did nothing but worsen the situation significantly.

But all that is useless without a watchdog that barks, early and loud. And that isn't afraid to bite. For instance the RKI had declared regions in northern Italy as risk zones as early as February 26, simultaneously with China, South Korea and Iran. The entirety of Italy followed ~2 weeks later, along with France.
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Old 08.05.2020, 15:30
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Which rate, incidence? The more you test the more incidents you find (without significantly increasing the counted death toll) thus the lower the IFR.
IFR does not change by diagnosing more people, CFR does.
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  #9144  
Old 08.05.2020, 15:42
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Re: Coronavirus

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Which rate, incidence? The more you test the more incidents you find (without significantly increasing the counted death toll) thus the lower the IFR.

I blame the Robert-Koch Institute (RKI) and bow to them.

Of course there are other factors as well, including geographical distance (from northern Italy), politician's willingness to put partisanship aside and follow the scients' advice, the population's common sense and willingness to play along, as well as their general support of the measures taken. Contrary to, say, France there was no mass exodus to the rural areas when the lockdown was put in place. Of course that exodus did nothing but worsen the situation significantly.

But all that is useless without a watchdog that barks, early and loud. And that isn't afraid to bite. For instance the RKI had declared regions in northern Italy as risk zones as early as February 26, simultaneously with China, South Korea and Iran. The entirety of Italy followed ~2 weeks later, along with France.
Not incidences, raw fatality numbers. Germany have suffered less from Coronavirus and less deaths per head of population than most of Europe. Many (most?) European countries have had cross party support in tackling the virus so I don't think too much can be made of that.

There could be discrepancies in the way deaths are being recorded however I don't believe that to play too much of an influence. Interesting about the exodus to the countryside that took place in France, that is the first I've heard about that happening, though it's very plausible.

Every time I think of a reason for Germany's low death rate I come up with another European country that has (done) the same and rule it out. E.g. early lockdown (Belgium went into lockdown around the same time but has way more deaths), good health care system (Switzerland has a better health care system and has seen more deaths), healthcare system wasn't overrun (neither was it in France, UK, Switzerland etc.).

The only thing which they've done more than anyone else is testing, but even that only works so much when everyone is on lockdown anyway on a virus for which there's no cure. The only conclusion I can come to is a lower number of people infected in relation to the population. Perhaps they really did get lucky? No doubt the super smug Germans will claim the credit for it though
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Old 08.05.2020, 15:46
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Re: Coronavirus

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Generally speaking all newspapers have devoted far more column inches to young people that have died from the virus, naming them and giving their backgrounds, compared to older people. The older people only seem to be referred to as numbers and statistics.



I was focusing on the medical reasons that certain groups are more likely to die, what lies behind those medical reasons is a Pandora's Box! Interestingly, the ONS in the UK yesterday published statistics that revealed black males are over 4 times more likely to die from Coronavirus than white males. They said a proportion of the reason for this was socio-economic disadvantages, however that wasn't the full picture. They however wisely chose not to go there.

We’re always drawn to the exception rather than the rule.

That analysis dropped from over 4 times more likely to just under 2 when SES was accounted for. So it’s a big amount, but yes, something else contributes. My point was that medical reasons have a large societal component beyond SES - multi generational families, commuting practices. There may be genetic components shared with a close knit community....we just don’t know, but hopefully there will be research to understand specific vulnerabilities.
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Old 08.05.2020, 17:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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The only thing which they've done more than anyone else is testing, but even that only works so much when everyone is on lockdown anyway on a virus for which there's no cure. The only conclusion I can come to is a lower number of people infected in relation to the population. Perhaps they really did get lucky? No doubt the super smug Germans will claim the credit for it though
I disagree... if you are in lockdown, you do no really "need" to test because there will be no transmission anyway (of course that even with lockdown people have to go shopping, so it is good to know who is infected). The whole point of testing and contact tracing is precisely to quarentaine those infected, not everyone.
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Old 08.05.2020, 17:27
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Re: Coronavirus

Swiss football fans against matches without fans in the stadiums. The complain is that team managers only care about profits since they propose matches on TV without fans in the stadium. Fans complain this is about money and not the emotions football creates........people is so romantic these days

https://www.20min.ch/fr/story/les-ul...u-611451377571
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Old 08.05.2020, 17:32
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Re: Coronavirus

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Swiss football fans against matches without fans in the stadiums. The complain is that team managers only care about profits since they propose matches on TV without fans in the stadium. Fans complain this is about money and not the emotions football creates........people is so romantic these days

https://www.20min.ch/fr/story/les-ul...u-611451377571

The fans are right. it's only about money.
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  #9149  
Old 08.05.2020, 17:36
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Re: Coronavirus

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I disagree... if you are in lockdown, you do no really "need" to test because there will be no transmission anyway (of course that even with lockdown people have to go shopping, so it is good to know who is infected). The whole point of testing and contact tracing is precisely to quarentaine those infected, not everyone.
Another point of testing is to get an idea how much of your population is or has been infected. This is important to know how much or little damage could be done with easing restrictions.
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Old 08.05.2020, 18:17
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Re: Coronavirus

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Can you provide a source?

A random quote taken from goodness knows where really isn’t very useful. Some context would be good.
Presumably it was part of a whole article?
https://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/jeder-f...e-239389794636
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  #9151  
Old 08.05.2020, 18:27
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Re: Coronavirus

For fans of the Swedish strategy, deaths per million have just overtaken the Netherlands.

Also, US deaths have now blown past Trump's last forecast of 75,000. Do not know why he does these forecasts, it is just inviting criticism when they are inevitably wrong. I do not remember any other world leaders who do such forecasts.

President Trump on Friday said he "learned a lot from Richard Nixon" as he reflected on his handling of the Russia investigation.
"I learned a lot from Richard Nixon. Don’t fire people," Trump said during a phone interview with "Fox & Friends.

Actually Trump has fired numerous officials in his administration. Probably what he did learn from Nixon was how to use the DOJ against political enemies.
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Old 08.05.2020, 19:55
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Re: Coronavirus

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Canton Zürich recommends to wear a mask starting next Monday while using public transport https://www.thelocal.ch/20200507/cor...-from-may-11th

What's the current situation with masks? Still scarce?
Remember back at the start of the crisis when they were telling everyone that masks were unnecessary and they didn't help anyway? What a load of shite.
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Old 08.05.2020, 20:02
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Re: Coronavirus

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Remember back at the start of the crisis when they were telling everyone that masks were unnecessary and they didn't help anyway? What a load of shite.
They had to say thats because dumb arse Berset had given all the masks to China!
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Old 08.05.2020, 20:36
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Re: Coronavirus

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On another note, the Swiss parliament had a post-session party yesterday for some 50-100 folks. Bit of a water-wine situation going on there...
Why does the video show only half a dozen or so even though there were, supposedly, many dozens? This looks very much like fabricated "scandal".

The same kind of lie by Mörgeli here. I becomes obvious once you enlarge the picture and check the distances of the feet. Cheap SVP smear.
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When did the ban start for visiting the elders?
At the same time as the ban on visiting hospitals. On March 12, a tad before the lockdown. Infected residents are to be isolated. Transfer to a hospital only if necessary and with the patient's agreement.
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Old 08.05.2020, 20:42
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Re: Coronavirus

Next week in Canton Zürich the Corona Detectives start their work . So they will be calling up every case that was recently positve to corona and will want to know the names of all the people they have contacted and all their friends! So dont be surprised if you get a call. DDR here we come. Fascist Zürich

https://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/coronav...h-452644369922
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Old 08.05.2020, 20:51
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Re: Coronavirus

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Next week in Canton Zürich the Corona Detectives start their work . So they will be calling up every case that was recently positve to corona and will want to know the names of all the people they have contacted and all their friends! So dont be surprised if you get a call. DDR here we come. Fascist Zürich

https://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/coronav...h-452644369922
What I read as a preventive measure to avoid spreading the virus, you interpret as fascist and communist (ps, in case you hadn´t noticed, fascists as you probably are referring to them were in a different country/time as the communists in the GDR)
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Old 08.05.2020, 21:16
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Re: Coronavirus

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The only thing which they've done more than anyone else is testing, but even that only works so much when everyone is on lockdown anyway on a virus for which there's no cure. The only conclusion I can come to is a lower number of people infected in relation to the population. Perhaps they really did get lucky? No doubt the super smug Germans will claim the credit for it though
It looks to me like the virus spread from the south, probably from Italy, as the further north the later a country got hit (that pattern's also visible within Germany and CH, perhaps other countries as well). So yes, if my hunch is right Germany got lucky, along with others. But they also used that advantage well, not like the UK. I'm thankful to the Swedes, they demonstrate that the soft measures are not enough - cue the tracing app, and masks if necessary.

The flight from the cities isn't limited to Paris, it's just the most extreme case. Given the lack of space in the cities I think it shouldn't surprise all that much. See here for an example article on the exodus from Paris.

Belgium's numbers are useless for comparison purposes. I didn't memorise the details, but something in the back of my head says they overcount big time.
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Old 08.05.2020, 21:36
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Belgium's numbers are useless for comparison purposes. I didn't memorise the details, but something in the back of my head says they overcount big time.
Seems to me that the Belgiums are actually pretty accurate in their counting, and this is the main reason they score so high.

Netherlands only reports an amount of people dying of Corona which contributes for half or even less than the amount of people dying above what would be expected normally based on average and trends of weeks before Corona. (soft winter means less death for example), Belgiums count of Corona runs almost equal to the amount of people dying above what should be expected.
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  #9159  
Old 08.05.2020, 22:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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Not incidences, raw fatality numbers. Germany have suffered less from Coronavirus and less deaths per head of population than most of Europe. Many (most?) European countries have had cross party support in tackling the virus so I don't think too much can be made of that.

There could be discrepancies in the way deaths are being recorded however I don't believe that to play too much of an influence. Interesting about the exodus to the countryside that took place in France, that is the first I've heard about that happening, though it's very plausible.

Every time I think of a reason for Germany's low death rate I come up with another European country that has (done) the same and rule it out. E.g. early lockdown (Belgium went into lockdown around the same time but has way more deaths), good health care system (Switzerland has a better health care system and has seen more deaths), healthcare system wasn't overrun (neither was it in France, UK, Switzerland etc.).

The only thing which they've done more than anyone else is testing, but even that only works so much when everyone is on lockdown anyway on a virus for which there's no cure. The only conclusion I can come to is a lower number of people infected in relation to the population. Perhaps they really did get lucky? No doubt the super smug Germans will claim the credit for it though
Ok, if you want to know more about Germany you can watch their tvs - there was a documentary on 3sat today. They tested a lot more people than other countries and the result is pretty clear - there were not so many infections as expected, they estimate max. 3% of population got infected.

One thing. And then the health system. It is one of the most performant in Europe, if not the most, seriously. They introduced tele medicine and they test patients for other illnesses too and they direct them to departments that deal with those specific co-morbiditiies too. There's a lot more to about what they do, please inform yourself from other sources apart from the English speaking press.

And then there's that Sauerkraut. I'm kidding.
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Old 08.05.2020, 23:18
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Re: Coronavirus

Well, if I were a virus looking for a place to settle down, I wouldn't choose a host who'd ingested, inhaled or injected Sauerkraut! If I were that virus, I think I'd rather die.
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