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  #9261  
Old 11.05.2020, 15:08
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Re: Coronavirus

New cases reported in Wuhan

Source

In my opinion, there will be a second wave and worse than the first one.

My reasons are that firstly a large group of people wrongly believe it is all over and secondly another large group is fed up with restrictions and will ignore them.
Anybody see the film on the TV news last night of a park in Berlin packed with people and making no attempt to conform to social distancing?

I hope I am wrong but fear the worst.
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  #9262  
Old 11.05.2020, 16:47
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Re: Coronavirus

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~300 people were having a nice afternoon together by the lake and scared the police that tried to disperse them.
It' funny, before Covid-19 many would have avoided crowded places, now they're so thirsty of being around many many other humans.....the more, the merrier.


And yesterday I was complaining about people who wouldn't go on only one side of the road when they see someone else's coming. Some really believe the entire street/path/road is theirs. That was common sense even before Covid-19 but hey ho.... I heard education is expensive.
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  #9263  
Old 11.05.2020, 16:47
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Re: Coronavirus

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New cases reported in Wuhan

Source

In my opinion, there will be a second wave and worse than the first one.

My reasons are that firstly a large group of people wrongly believe it is all over and secondly another large group is fed up with restrictions and will ignore them.
Anybody see the film on the TV news last night of a park in Berlin packed with people and making no attempt to conform to social distancing?

I hope I am wrong but fear the worst.
its not over till' it's over. Live with it!
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  #9264  
Old 11.05.2020, 16:48
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Re: Coronavirus

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It' funny, before Covid-19 many would have avoided crowded places, now they're so thirsty of being around many many other humans.....the more, the merrier.
Yes we could be seeing a big increase in births in 9 months!
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  #9265  
Old 11.05.2020, 16:51
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yes we could be seeing a big increase in births in 9 months!
Those would be home births, I suspect.
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  #9266  
Old 11.05.2020, 16:55
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Re: Coronavirus

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New cases reported in Wuhan

Source

In my opinion, there will be a second wave and worse than the first one.

My reasons are that firstly a large group of people wrongly believe it is all over and secondly another large group is fed up with restrictions and will ignore them.
Anybody see the film on the TV news last night of a park in Berlin packed with people and making no attempt to conform to social distancing?

I hope I am wrong but fear the worst.
We'd have to react even slower than last time - that'd take some doing. I'm most worried about a many peak multi year event, with the economy totally screwed.

The worst thing is there's not an obvious correct way to proceed.
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Old 11.05.2020, 17:03
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Re: Coronavirus

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We'd have to react even slower than last time - that'd take some doing. I'm most worried about a many peak multi year event, with the economy totally screwed.

The worst thing is there's not an obvious correct way to proceed.
There are a few ways, but each prioritizes a different thing.

- Lock down immediately, borders shut, economy toast.
- Economy open, tracing and tracking, privacy toast, expensive.
- Risk groups isolated, everything else open, does not last long.
- Relying on vax, uncertain results, antivaxers.

I think we modify our lifestyles and priorities to meet half way somewhere, doctors and scientists meeting with economists and epidemiologists, Swedes and South Koreans, and we will know. Like in a couple of years.
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  #9268  
Old 11.05.2020, 17:16
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Re: Coronavirus

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We'd have to react even slower than last time - that'd take some doing. I'm most worried about a many peak multi year event, with the economy totally screwed.

The worst thing is there's not an obvious correct way to proceed.

many peak multi year event


Yes. It could replace the Street Parade!
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  #9269  
Old 11.05.2020, 18:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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Right now, given the UK has the highest rate of active infections in Europe, it would be completely pointless. There's far more chance of any given random person in the UK having the virus than any new arrival.
...
Well, formally thinking, not completely pointless: no matter how much virus is in the UK, new arrivals may add to it, and that's not wanted I guess.
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  #9270  
Old 11.05.2020, 18:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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May. Key word. 10-20% is ridiculously low for any herd immunity for anything.

What does "slow to adapt to Covid" mean? Being prepped for a flu outbreak by creating vaccines with agreed strains is one thing. Covid 19 is another entirely.

The initial herd immunity strategy, when looked at properly with numbers of actual people dead rather than stats, predicted hundreds of thousands of deaths. The scientific modelling didn't change, folk were just made privy to the maths supporting it.
Why is it ridiculously low? It's just another scientist putting forward their theory, this is how science works! Perhaps it is correct, perhaps not.
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  #9271  
Old 11.05.2020, 19:12
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Re: Coronavirus

fascist Australia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0U0...ht8beYsQxrRy2w
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  #9272  
Old 11.05.2020, 19:21
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Re: Coronavirus


Adults weaponizing children, did I missed something else?
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  #9273  
Old 11.05.2020, 19:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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Adults weaponizing children, did I missed something else?
Yes could be. Heres another


Name:  Greta_Thunberg_4.jpg
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  #9274  
Old 11.05.2020, 19:26
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Re: Coronavirus

Well it's official and verified by the BBC that July 4th will be the first day that anyone in the UK can
legally go the barbers or the hairdressers to get a hair cut over there.
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  #9275  
Old 11.05.2020, 20:08
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yes could be. Heres another
An acute case of whataboutism. Anything else related to the original video you linked?
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  #9276  
Old 11.05.2020, 20:29
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Re: Coronavirus

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Adults weaponizing children, did I missed something else?
Wow, why, why, would a mother put herself in a risk situation, and take her small son along with her, when she knows there's likely to be a confrontation with the police? Really sad that some people are willing to put their ideology so high, that they risk plunging their child into screaming, desperate despair. It's very sad. Poor boy.
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  #9277  
Old 11.05.2020, 20:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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fascist Australia ...
I think who deserved to get arrested though was the guy today on the S24 train who kept coughing next to me non-stop and didn't even have a mask on
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  #9278  
Old 11.05.2020, 20:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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I think who deserved to get arrested though was the guy today on the S24 train who kept coughing next to me non-stop and didn't even have a mask on

And you didn't move?
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  #9279  
Old 11.05.2020, 21:23
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Re: Coronavirus

Opening schools has not rekindled epidemic in Norway, say authorities

Yet I believe some EFers still think reopening of schools is impossible
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  #9280  
Old 11.05.2020, 22:19
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
May. Key word. 10-20% is ridiculously low for any herd immunity for anything.

What does "slow to adapt to Covid" mean? Being prepped for a flu outbreak by creating vaccines with agreed strains is one thing. Covid 19 is another entirely.

The initial herd immunity strategy, when looked at properly with numbers of actual people dead rather than stats, predicted hundreds of thousands of deaths. The scientific modelling didn't change, folk were just made privy to the maths supporting it.
If we read the original article here it does not claim anywhere that 10-20% is the herd immunity for COVID.

It states "Achieving accurate estimates of heterogeneity for SARS-CoV-2 is therefore of paramount importance in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic as the coefficient of variation increases from 0 to 4, the herd immunity threshold declines from over 60% to less than 10%."

Where the coefficient of variation for COVID is not known its herd immunity threshold cannot be calculated, more work is needed to measure this in different populations.
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