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  #9881  
Old 25.05.2020, 07:43
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Re: Coronavirus

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I use a salt lamp for that. Here are the proven benefits:

They can clean the air ( WLAN,4G,5G ) in your home, soothe allergies, boost your mood and help you sleep

So you always need to plug an ethernet cable in your device to post on EF from home?
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  #9882  
Old 25.05.2020, 08:27
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Re: Coronavirus

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The lockdown was necessary.

You need to break people's habits. And that is only possible with very drastic actions and measures.
This argument keeps getting trotted out, but the evidence just isn't there. All the data indicates that the infection rate was well on the decline before the lockdown. Some studies are even more damning, the Robert Koch Institute in Germany which estimates the R value of infection rate has displayed no significant change in the R number from before lockdown to after it!
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  #9883  
Old 25.05.2020, 08:29
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Re: Coronavirus

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Erm... the SCIENCE is convinced.

Don't attempt to patronise me. It's an emotive subject, for some people anyway.
Again if the science is settled then PROVE IT, it shouldn't be that hard for you to do!
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  #9884  
Old 25.05.2020, 08:57
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Again if the science is settled then PROVE IT, it shouldn't be that hard for you to do!
I refer you to my post 4 above yours. Or read the Tagi.
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  #9885  
Old 25.05.2020, 09:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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I refer you to my post 4 above yours. Or read the Tagi.
An ETH study found that the rate of infection was already on the decline in Switzerland before the lockdown occurred (I posted a link already).
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  #9886  
Old 25.05.2020, 09:17
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Re: Coronavirus

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An ETH study found that the rate of infection was already on the decline in Switzerland before the lockdown occurred (I posted a link already).
A study based on a theoretical infection rate, the calculation of which over any given short period is very error prone (longer term is usually OK). Or actual tested infections.

I wonder which is most reliable.
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  #9887  
Old 25.05.2020, 09:32
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Re: Coronavirus

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A study based on a theoretical infection rate, the calculation of which over any given short period is very error prone (longer term is usually OK). Or actual tested infections.

I wonder which is most reliable.
Your article still doesn't prove that lockdowns are an effective measure. It's just a comparison between two countries where there are many contributing factors beyond the lockdown. We could compare France (lockdown) to South Korea or Japan where there was no lockdown and it would show an entirely different picture.
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Old 25.05.2020, 09:41
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Your article still doesn't prove that lockdowns are an effective measure. It's just a comparison between two countries where there are many contributing factors beyond the lockdown. We could compare France (lockdown) to South Korea or Japan where there was no lockdown and it would show an entirely different picture.
The Korea approach is far better. But is only works if you have a low level of cases to start with and you have sufficient testing capability.

Korea were prepared - their experience with SARS saw to that, they recognised the threat and reacted (including, critically, building up testing capability). By the time Europe recognised the threat it was too late, the volume of cases was already too great for track and trace to work. Plus they didn't then have anywhere near enough testing facilities. Lockdown was then needed to both avoid overwhelming the medical resources and to get us back down to a case level that would let us follow the Korea approach.

Now we have the active cases here back down under 1,000, tracking/tracing and testing is the way forward and the approach the government is trying to shift to.
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  #9889  
Old 25.05.2020, 11:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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Your article still doesn't prove that lockdowns are an effective measure. It's just a comparison between two countries where there are many contributing factors beyond the lockdown. We could compare France (lockdown) to South Korea or Japan where there was no lockdown and it would show an entirely different picture.

A key factor for the success of the lockdown (and any other measures) is, in my opinion, of course the willingness or ability of the population to implement these measures. For example, social distancing will only work if people comply to it. THat's probably even more important than the exact measures to be taken.
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  #9890  
Old 25.05.2020, 11:33
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Re: Coronavirus

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A key factor for the success of the lockdown (and any other measures) is, in my opinion, of course the willingness or ability of the population to implement these measures. For example, social distancing will only work if people comply to it. THat's probably even more important than the exact measures to be taken.
Yes I agree, and across most of the world this has been taken seriously which is why social distancing was so effective. Infantilising entire populations however is not a good look.
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  #9891  
Old 25.05.2020, 12:39
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Re: Coronavirus

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An ETH study found that the rate of infection was already on the decline in Switzerland before the lockdown occurred (I posted a link already).
I suppose you are referring to another ETH?
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The “lockdown light” decreed by the Swiss Federal Council has led to each person infected with Sars-CoV-2 going on to infect only one person on average instead of two or three prior to the lockdown, as calculations by a team from ETH Zurich have shown.
Source
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  #9892  
Old 25.05.2020, 12:48
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Re: Coronavirus

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I suppose you are referring to another ETH?

Source
That's exactly the study. Look at the graphs and they clearly show that the R rate was on the decline and reached 1 BEFORE the lockdown was put in place!
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  #9893  
Old 25.05.2020, 12:51
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Re: Coronavirus

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This argument keeps getting trotted out, but the evidence just isn't there. All the data indicates that the infection rate was well on the decline before the lockdown. Some studies are even more damning, the Robert Koch Institute in Germany which estimates the R value of infection rate has displayed no significant change in the R number from before lockdown to after it!
You've clearly not been paying attention to the UK then.
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  #9894  
Old 25.05.2020, 12:52
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Re: Coronavirus

Nous souhaitons agir aussi vite que possible, mais aussi lentement que nécessaire (A. Berset, 2020)

The slowness to act may be a virtue by itself. The Swiss parliament plans to vote on the contract-tracing app next June. It may be not necessary by that time

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/control...covid/45773566
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  #9895  
Old 25.05.2020, 12:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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You've clearly not been paying attention to the UK then.
What, the UK? "Lockdown to flatten the curve", then "Lockdown to protect the NHS" now "Lockdown until we have track and trace". "We follow the science!" they claimed and then just made up the rules as they went along!

People turning out like cultists every Thursday evening to clap the appalling NHS. Doctors and Nurses dancing in empty hospitals having discharged elderly patients to care homes where the virus has run riot. Cancer operations cancelled, the Nightingale hospitals stood empty. What a disaster from start to finish, and what an embarrassment
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  #9896  
Old 25.05.2020, 13:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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An ETH study found that the rate of infection was already on the decline in Switzerland before the lockdown occurred (I posted a link already).
Of course it was! Or rather, it better be!

The lockdown was far from the first measure, a stable R before the lockdown would mean that those early measures had zero effect. Hygiene is considered the most important and effective measure, consequentially those recommendations were among the first issued. But that was far from enough to bring the numbers down, you need R<1 for that.

Still, R was still above 1 before the lockdown, meaning the number of daily cases (positive tests, actually) was still going up. It was rising less fast but rise it did.

That said, it's useless to judge ex post like you do. The decisions had to be taken then, and with very little reliable data available. We still don't know far from enough but even that is immensely more than we knew 2-3 months ago.

You keep ignoring that this is a moving target. People adapt their behaviour, Swisscom's movement data for instance show that people in Ticino started to reduce their movements a week or more before the lockdown. During March the flu was still present, in all likelihood many Covid-19 cases were mistaken for the flu and vice versa. That's no longer the case but it will happen again come autumn/winter, that alone is likely to result in an increased R.

PS:
Since you foolishly keep taking the ETHZ model at face value: There's your proof that the lockdown worked.
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  #9897  
Old 25.05.2020, 13:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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Of course it was! Or rather, it better be!

The lockdown was far from the first measure, a stable R before the lockdown would mean that those early measures had zero effect. Hygiene is considered the most important and effective measure, consequentially those recommendations were among the first issued. But that was far from enough to bring the numbers down, you need R<1 for that. Sweden's R appears to be slightly below 1 since late April, with 500 deaths a week they keep paying a terrible price for letting it stay there.

Still, R was still above 1 before the lockdown, meaning the number of daily cases (positive tests, actually) was still going up. It was rising less fast but rise it did.

That said, it's useless to judge ex post like you do. The decisions had to be taken then, and with very little reliable data available. We still don't know far from enough but even that is immensely more than we knew 2-3 months ago.

You keep ignoring that this is a moving target. People adapt their behaviour, Swisscom's movement data for instance show that people in Ticino started to reduce their movements a week or more before the lockdown. During March the flu was still present, in all likelihood many Covid-19 cases were mistaken for the flu and vice versa. That's no longer the case but it will happen again come autumn/winter, that alone is likely to result in an increased R.
I'm not judging what has happened, given the circumstances and how little was known about the virus, I think on balance it was the right choice. What I am criticising is, now that we do know more, those that wish to remain in lockdown and those that don't want to believe that the science is showing it was an ineffective measure.

Sweden's high death rate is largely due to the fact that they didn't protect the hospitals or care homes, and not due to not having a lockdown. This has been reflected across Europe (France, Spain, Italy, UK etc.). Coronavirus is largely a nosocomial disease where the vast majority deaths came from people infected in hospitals and care homes. This explains Germany's relatively low death rate as they protected their care homes and hospitals.

Last edited by TonyClifton; 25.05.2020 at 13:32.
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Old 25.05.2020, 13:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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I'm not judging what has happened, given the circumstances and how little was known about the virus, I think on balance it was the right choice. What I am criticising is, now that we do know more, those that wish to remain in lockdown and those that don't want to believe that the science is showing it was an ineffective measure.

Sweden's high death rate is largely due to the fact that they didn't protect the hospitals or care homes, and not due to not having a lockdown. This has been reflected across Europe (France, Spain, Italy, UK etc.). Coronavirus is largely a nosocomial disease where the vast majority deaths came from people infected in hospitals and care homes. This explains Germany's relatively low death rate as they protected their care homes and hospitals.
Who wants to stay at home in first place?

I had a beer in a sunny terrace in a restaurant last Friday. I've rode more than 200 km of mtb last April. The parent's of my wife's students are eager to send them to school. Lot's of people driving their oldtimers yesterday, also several groups of motorbike riders. I'm bored so I go to the office 1 day a week even if it's not required.

From what I see on the street and shops, not many people wants to stay at home....as always, look at what they do, now what they say.

PS. even here at EF there are other threads about air travel where members and their relatives are already flying or considering it in the near future.
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Old 25.05.2020, 13:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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Sweden's high death rate is largely due to the fact that they didn't protect the hospitals or care homes, and not due to not having a lockdown. This has been reflected across Europe (France, Spain, Italy, UK etc.). Coronavirus is largely a nosocomial disease where the vast majority deaths came from people infected in hospitals and care homes. This explains Germany's relatively low death rate as they protected their care homes and hospitals.
The Switzerland-Sweden comparison shows little difference in the age profile of victims - actually the biggest difference (on small numbers) is in the 40 to 60 age range. Despite Switzerland protecting care homes and hospitals.
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Old 25.05.2020, 14:24
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That's exactly the study. Look at the graphs and they clearly show that the R rate was on the decline and reached 1 BEFORE the lockdown was put in place!
The conclusion reached by the ETH team who did the study was "The “lockdown light” decreed by the Swiss Federal Council has led to each person infected with Sars-CoV-2 going on to infect only one person on average instead of two or three prior to the lockdown.

Looking at the graphs will not change the ETH conclusion that it was the lockdown that was successful and reduced the infection rate.
Your opposite claim has no credibility.
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