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  #9981  
Old 27.05.2020, 17:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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If a plane flys through the sky and only omtatsat sees it, did it really exist?

I didn't see them, but I did hear one at some point.
Today was the same. 4 planes/jets doing a run in the sky over Zürich. Too high up to see if they were jets.
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  #9982  
Old 27.05.2020, 20:16
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Re: Coronavirus

Regarding the number of deaths in Spain, it is a big mess. It is in principle not due to new criteria or re-defining corona cases as non-corona cases. The explanation given is that since mid May the health ministry is requesting a detailed description for each case, with date of notification, date of start of symptoms, hospitalization, ICU, etc. and this lead to finding duplicate cases (in the sense of cases counted once when provided wihtout further details, and again as a new case with notified with all details).

Over the last few days a lot of controversy arose because the request of some regions to advance in the plan to soften the applied measures was rejected, while for other regions it was accepted and the criteria were not always clear. In particular, Catalonia anounced last Thursday over 600 deaths (from previous dates) at the same time they were allowed to progress to phase 1. Since then and over the weekend the government has substantially changed the discourse held the previous week (14-day quarentaine introduced some 10 days ago for travellers from abroad, announcement that only 5 airports would received international flights, with two of them in the islands which was just a couple of days later ammended to add 8 more to the list, we should plan for a summer with only national tourists, etc), possibly due to the increased protests. Then on Monday the count of deaths was reduced in some 2000, yesterday increased again in 300 although it was said that only 35 had occurred over the last 7 days.... a complete mess.

But this is not all, this afternoon i found out that over 13000 deaths have been notified today through the civil registers, some of them dating back two months, bringing the excess of deaths recorded by the mortality monitoring system to an excess of 43000 deaths since mid March. Until yesterday this excess was 30000 deaths, not far from the official corona figures. Now, well... zero credibility on the official figures, and on how the decissions to progress in the softening of the measures are accepted or rejected for each region if we cannot count not just the cases, but even the deaths.
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  #9983  
Old 27.05.2020, 20:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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Another day another story saying that the lockdown was unnecessary.
As I've already said with the passage of time, ever more evidence comes to light that the hard lockdown was the gravest of errors.

First there is the evidence now known that the rate of infection R number was already well on the decline before hard lockdown was imposed in many countries.

Second we have the evidence of the differences between countries (and States within the US) where hard lockdown has been imposed that shows no statistical correlation between countries that imposed lockdown (France, Italy, Spain etc.) and those which didn't (Japan, South Korea, Belarus etc.) having any impact on death toll. Neither is there any correlation between the severity of the lockdown and number of fatalities.

Third we have the public health argument, that there will be many more deaths caused by the lockdown where it is still not clear whether lockdown has saved even a single life.

Fourth, economic damage, need I say more?

Fifth, countries that are coming out of lockdown have seen no second wave, and no dramatic increase in fatalities.

The only hope is we learn from this error and never repeat it again!

https://www.thelocal.no/20200522/nor...n-health-chief
Yes, there is the evidence now known that the rate of infection R number was already well on the decline.

But you miss the key point!
The rate of infection R number was not below 1, consequently, the pandemic was still in the exponential growth model.
The lockdown was needed to reduce the infection R number below 1 so slowing the pandemic.
This point is well explained in the ETH study you often reference.
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  #9984  
Old 27.05.2020, 20:32
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Re: Coronavirus

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There's so much anecdotal evidence that many deaths have been incorrectly recorded as being down to coronavirus, it wouldn't surprise me if many other countries have over estimated their death toll.

The UK has in the region of 60,000 excess deaths over a normal period, yet "only" around 37,000 are due to the Coronavirus. I'm just waiting for the study that states the remaining 23,000 are due to the lockdown.

Are you showing us your strong grasp of statistics again?
"anecdotal evidence "; a typical oxymoron.
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Old 27.05.2020, 20:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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Did anyone else see these planes/jets flying over Zürich yesterday?
I assume this photo absolutely blows your mind.


Last edited by Guest; 29.05.2020 at 10:12.
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  #9986  
Old 27.05.2020, 22:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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Another day another story saying that the lockdown was unnecessary.
As I've already said with the passage of time, ever more evidence comes to light that the hard lockdown was the gravest of errors.

First there is the evidence now known that the rate of infection R number was already well on the decline before hard lockdown was imposed in many countries.

Second we have the evidence of the differences between countries (and States within the US) where hard lockdown has been imposed that shows no statistical correlation between countries that imposed lockdown (France, Italy, Spain etc.) and those which didn't (Japan, South Korea, Belarus etc.) having any impact on death toll. Neither is there any correlation between the severity of the lockdown and number of fatalities.

Third we have the public health argument, that there will be many more deaths caused by the lockdown where it is still not clear whether lockdown has saved even a single life.

Fourth, economic damage, need I say more?

Fifth, countries that are coming out of lockdown have seen no second wave, and no dramatic increase in fatalities.

The only hope is we learn from this error and never repeat it again!

https://www.thelocal.no/20200522/nor...n-health-chief
"countries that are coming out of lockdown have seen no second wave," Much too soon to draw any conclusions.
If we look at the US which came too quickly out of lockdown there are 26 states with rising numbers of new cases. In two or three weeks we will know if there are signs of a second wave or not.
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  #9987  
Old 28.05.2020, 08:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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"countries that are coming out of lockdown have seen no second wave," Much too soon to draw any conclusions.
If we look at the US which came too quickly out of lockdown there are 26 states with rising numbers of new cases. In two or three weeks we will know if there are signs of a second wave or not.
That old trope has been trotted out quite often in this discussion "let's just wait and see...". Regarding the US, remember when everyone was shaming the Spring Break party goers? Florida hasn't seen that high a death toll. Together with Georgia and Texas it seems that they've just had enough of Coronavirus and life is starting to get back to normal there.
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  #9988  
Old 28.05.2020, 09:07
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Re: Coronavirus

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That old trope has been trotted out quite often in this discussion "let's just wait and see...". Regarding the US, remember when everyone was shaming the Spring Break party goers? Florida hasn't seen that high a death toll. Together with Georgia and Texas it seems that they've just had enough of Coronavirus and life is starting to get back to normal there.
Spring break gets people in from all over the country, not just Florida. No reason to expect Florida to be specially affected, that is only where they gather before all going to their various homes again.

Meanwhile Korea fearing a second wave and considering re-imposing measures.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...e-in-new-cases
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Old 28.05.2020, 09:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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That old trope has been trotted out quite often in this discussion "let's just wait and see...". Regarding the US, remember when everyone was shaming the Spring Break party goers? Florida hasn't seen that high a death toll. Together with Georgia and Texas it seems that they've just had enough of Coronavirus and life is starting to get back to normal there.
The simplicity of your thinking is becoming very irritating.

The thing with festivals is that they often attract a lot of people from further away. Huge gatherings with people from all over the country are about the best method to quickly spread a virus.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/u...ronavirus.html
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  #9990  
Old 28.05.2020, 13:07
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Re: Coronavirus

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That old trope has been trotted out quite often in this discussion "let's just wait and see...". Regarding the US, remember when everyone was shaming the Spring Break party goers? Florida hasn't seen that high a death toll. Together with Georgia and Texas it seems that they've just had enough of Coronavirus and life is starting to get back to normal there.
Florida has a problem counting votes.
Florida has a problem counting anything.
Covid cases and deaths is clearly too difficult and too political for the sunshine state.
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  #9991  
Old 28.05.2020, 13:23
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Re: Coronavirus

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The simplicity of your thinking is becoming very irritating.

The thing with festivals is that they often attract a lot of people from further away. Huge gatherings with people from all over the country are about the best method to quickly spread a virus.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/u...ronavirus.html
You don't have to like it, I am just stating the facts as we know them at present. I should remind you I was in favour of the lockdown at the outbreak of the coronavirus however have adjusted my position as more information has become available. Sticking religiously to a preconceived idea in the face of evidence is a curse of modern times.
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Old 28.05.2020, 14:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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Meanwhile Korea fearing a second wave and considering re-imposing measures.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...e-in-new-cases
Stop spreading fake news please. It's all baseless fearmongering designed to better control the sheepish population.
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Old 28.05.2020, 14:31
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Re: Coronavirus

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Stop spreading fake news please. It's all baseless fearmongering designed to better control the sheepish population.
Just because it upsets you, doesn't mean its fake.

From the article:
"Museums, parks, and art galleries will all be closed again from Friday for two weeks, with authorities struggling to identify transmission routes"
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  #9994  
Old 28.05.2020, 14:37
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Re: Coronavirus

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Talking about numbers, Qatar (47k cases, 28 deaths) and Singapore (33k cases, 23 deaths) are so different than the other countries.


What is the secret of their success? Do they manage to isolate the vulnerable population so well?
its not a success, its postponing
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Old 28.05.2020, 16:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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You don't have to like it, I am just stating the facts as we know them at present. I should remind you I was in favour of the lockdown at the outbreak of the coronavirus however have adjusted my position as more information has become available. Sticking religiously to a preconceived idea in the face of evidence is a curse of modern times.
The evidence from the ETH study you like to promote is that the lockdown was necessary.

From the study
Quote:
The reproduction number was significantly higher than 1 until 13 March, which means that the number of infections increased exponentially in that phase.
With the intensified mitigation measures [lockdown] this number decreased further and finally stabilised at a value below 1, indicating a decline of the epidemic.
Sticking religiously to a preconceived idea in the face of contrary evidence is another form of religious curse
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Old 28.05.2020, 16:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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The evidence from the ETH study you like to promote is that the lockdown was necessary.

From the study


Sticking religiously to a preconceived idea in the face of contrary evidence is another form of religious curse
From your postings it's comes across that you cannot read graphs, don't understand trend lines, and have little grasp of statistics in general. You keep referring to this study which doesn't show what you believe it does, but nevertheless so we're in avoidance of any doubt:

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We highlight that this pattern only reveals a correlation between a decrease in R(t) and an implementation of measures, but not a causation.
Note measure(S). Not lockdown and not causation.
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  #9997  
Old 28.05.2020, 16:55
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Re: Coronavirus

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ETH has modelled a second wave:

https://ethz.ch/de/news-und-veransta...berechnet.html

A second wave would come at a slower pace, but with more total deaths.
That's not what they say.

Anyways, they know nothing. My source, public health expert Marcel Tanner, says there won't be a 2nd wave that affects the entire country.
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Old 28.05.2020, 16:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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Just because it upsets you, doesn't mean its fake.

From the article:
"Museums, parks, and art galleries will all be closed again from Friday for two weeks, with authorities struggling to identify transmission routes"
You need to get your sarcasm detector repaired.
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Old 28.05.2020, 17:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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What other conspiracy theories do you believe in?

No, strike that. We don't have the server bandwidth. Which conspiracy theories do you NOT believe in?
You could be right about the lack of bandwidth. With laughable 40 members online (and 470 guests but they're just lurking) the server is "too busy" to react. And this repetitively for at least two days now.
A virus?
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Old 28.05.2020, 17:24
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Re: Coronavirus

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From your postings it's comes across that you cannot read graphs, don't understand trend lines, and have little grasp of statistics in general. You keep referring to this study which doesn't show what you believe it does, but nevertheless so we're in avoidance of any doubt:

Note measure(S). Not lockdown and not causation.
I happily don't share your grasp of statistics which enables you to study the graphs and then to draw an entirely opposite conclusion than the written conclusion of the study authors.

From the ETH press relase about the study
Quote:
The “lockdown light” decreed by the Swiss Federal Council has led to each person infected with Sars-​CoV-2 going on to infect only one person on average instead of two or three prior to the lockdown, as calculations by a team from ETH Zurich have shown.
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