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  #10061  
Old 01.06.2020, 21:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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I walk my dog all throughout central Zurich and I can only say that the numbers outside have doubled or even tripled; very few wear masks and there is very little social distancing compared to 4 weeks ago. The fact that Zurich has not seen any spike is curious to me. Either the warmer weather has mitigated the viral spread or many more people have had this virus than originally thought. I would have expected a spike in Zurich based on what I have observed the past three weeks.
Remember that big gatherings like concerts, nightclubs, festivals etc are still banned. Many people continue to work from officehome, reducing commuting and contact at theworkplace. Also, nowadays people spend most of their time outdoors, where the spreading chance is lower than in closed space.

And of course, personal hygiene certainly improved. Curious to see what the fall numbers of flu will be.

Last edited by LifeStrain; 01.06.2020 at 22:10. Reason: from home, lol
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  #10062  
Old 01.06.2020, 21:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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Remember that big gatherings like concerts, nightclubs, festivals etc are still banned. Many people continue to work from office, reducing commuting and contact at theworkplace. Also, nowadays people spend most of their time outdoors, where the spreading chance is lower than in closed space.

And of course, personal hygiene certainly improved. Curious to see what the fall numbers of flu will be.
I think what should be interesting to see is what happens to commercial real estate and office space. My husband's company, a private Bank, is planning to reduce office space and require "non-essential" staff to work from home even after the pandemic is "resolved". I have heard similar stories from family and friends worldwide that their employers/corporations are beginning to rethink the necessity of corporate office space. So long "We Work" - but I thought that business model was dead in the water before this pandemic.

This Covid has certainly been a game changer - politically, economically - not to mention hygienically
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  #10063  
Old 01.06.2020, 21:46
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Re: Coronavirus

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you posted 1-2%. where did you get it? from nowhere?
there is a special trained people, who do the job for you:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....13.20101253v1

"Lookup the numbers before posting nonsence" (c)
Seriously, you are referring to a pre-print of a non-peer-reviewed article? You certainly don't understand how "special trained people" do the job then.

I published in top journals with IF~20-40 and pre-print is nothing compared to the finalized paper.

Besides, these serology studies in particular are known to suffer from a range of problems:
- large number of false positives (some serology results are so bad that they rather count total cases of common cold, not covid)
- exclusion of certain "unrepresentative groups" which skews the results
- citing and using data from other non-reviewed papers or unreliable sources

and even
- incorrectly applied statistical data reduction methods (!)


Just look up the comments to what you posted:
http://disq.us/p/29ey6e9
http://disq.us/p/29dy6tn

And this twitter thread is a very-very mild version of what the actual peer-review of this paper would look like:
https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1262956011872280577, (click "show this thread" in the first post to extend)
http://hildabastian.net/index.php/91 - and this article

As you can see, just a shallow twitter-review ( ) reveals plenty of flaws in this non-verified paper (and oh boy, how many more the actual professionals will find ) and it will look very different after the review process. This is also a major reason why pre-prints are not appreciated in the scientific community, as media starts citing misleading and/or erroneous information and various twitter/facebook/forum idiots start sharing links everywhere. More mature and responsible research and analysis have a consensus value of around 1%.

At this point I just stop discussing this matter with you, as you obviously don't even seem to understand what you yourself cite.

Last edited by LifeStrain; 01.06.2020 at 22:25.
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  #10064  
Old 01.06.2020, 21:57
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Re: Coronavirus

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22yards never said there will be one.....

And even if you do not agree, safety measures probably have saved us from worse.
Nor was I being "flippant" about 5000 people that haven't even died.
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  #10065  
Old 01.06.2020, 22:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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This is also a major reason why pre-prints are not appreciated in the scientific community, as media starts citing misleading and/or erroneous information and various twitter/facebook/forum idiots start sharing links everywhere. More mature and responsible research and analysis have a consensus value of around 1%.
But it makes for great headlines and sells advertisements! # FakeNews

https://youtu.be/0Rnq1NpHdmw

NOTE: Content of link is a John Oliver episode talking about scientific studies and media reporting thereof (for all you pedants out there)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ining-science/

NOTE: Content of link is ????
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  #10066  
Old 01.06.2020, 23:15
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Re: Coronavirus

Very interesting interview with Michael Levitt, a Nobel Laurette at Stanford.

Definitely worth the read - but note that the Headline/Title is a bit misleading. He explains and provides compelling info regarding Corona and how various countries responded...

https://www.aier.org/article/nobel-l...-huge-mistake/
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  #10067  
Old 02.06.2020, 01:48
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Re: Coronavirus

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I think what should be interesting to see is what happens to commercial real estate and office space. My husband's company, a private Bank, is planning to reduce office space and require "non-essential" staff to work from home even after the pandemic is "resolved". I have heard similar stories from family and friends worldwide that their employers/corporations are beginning to rethink the necessity of corporate office space. So long "We Work" - but I thought that business model was dead in the water before this pandemic.

This Covid has certainly been a game changer - politically, economically - not to mention hygienically
Yes no more Corporate Business parks, no doubt the only offices companies will retain 'for show' will be
the companies Registered Office.
Also many of those big department stores will go as well, what with people shopping online.
On the other hand these 'brown field sites' formally occupied by the above, will no doubt be prime land
for housing development, as far less hassle ( or outcry ) than getting planning permission when
encroaching on 'green belt' land.
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  #10068  
Old 02.06.2020, 01:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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Nor was I being "flippant" about 5000 people that haven't even died.
It really didn't require you to insert "only" in front of "0.05%" to show what you really thought of the possible 5,000 deaths.

That's flippancy.

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Mr. “7% is peanuts” getting worried about a single study suggesting 0.05% of the population of Switzerland could die in a second wave
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  #10069  
Old 02.06.2020, 02:31
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Re: Coronavirus

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That's the 4th one I've heard of going to production. The others are one in China and two in the UK, but I'm sure there are more. The logic is to begin production based upon good results during the second phase of testing (on animals) and before the testing in humans because if successful, the demand will be so great and immediate.
The Novartis daughter company is AveXis, production is for the tests that are to begin during the 2nd semester. Production will be free of costs, so it seems fair to assume that the volume won't be above 4-digit amounts.

That's an entirely different kind of fish compared to e.g. Moderna, which is building production capacity for ~600mln doses annually. Necessary financing seems to be a 9-digit amount, they took in ~1.5bln recently for new stock sold to the public.
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  #10070  
Old 02.06.2020, 08:26
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Re: Coronavirus

Mr. Corona» Daniel Koch decided to end it all. Last seen jumping into the river!!

https://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/badet-d...e-741279872756
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  #10071  
Old 02.06.2020, 08:29
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Re: Coronavirus

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Mr. Corona» Daniel Koch decided to end it all. Last seen jumping into the river!!

https://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/badet-d...e-741279872756
Fake news Omtatsat, the way you make it sound, and you know it
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  #10072  
Old 02.06.2020, 08:29
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Re: Coronavirus

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Fake news Omtatsat, the way you make it sound, and you know it
He ended it. He went into retirement.
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  #10073  
Old 02.06.2020, 08:42
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Re: Coronavirus

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I walk my dog all throughout central Zurich and I can only say that the numbers outside have doubled or even tripled; very few wear masks and there is very little social distancing compared to 4 weeks ago. The fact that Zurich has not seen any spike is curious to me. Either the warmer weather has mitigated the viral spread or many more people have had this virus than originally thought. I would have expected a spike in Zurich based on what I have observed the past three weeks.
I think it is too soon to see how the change in behaviour is going to pan out. Reported new cases in Switzerland are very low and may or may not be low enough to avoid a second wave in the near future.
However opening the borders, allowing travellers in from high infection rate countries in (e.g. the UK) could change the situation dramatically.
Unfortunately it may take a second wave before some people learn......
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  #10074  
Old 02.06.2020, 08:49
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Re: Coronavirus

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Very interesting interview with Michael Levitt, a Nobel Laurette at Stanford.

Definitely worth the read - but note that the Headline/Title is a bit misleading. He explains and provides compelling info regarding Corona and how various countries responded...

https://www.aier.org/article/nobel-l...-huge-mistake/
Hmmm.
He mentions herd immunity.
He mentions Sweden as an example of a good response.
His credibility is .........................
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  #10075  
Old 02.06.2020, 08:51
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Re: Coronavirus

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I think it is too soon to see how the change in behaviour is going to pan out. Reported new cases in Switzerland are very low and may or may not be low enough to avoid a second wave in the near future.
However opening the borders, allowing travellers in from high infection rate countries in (e.g. the UK) could change the situation dramatically.
Unfortunately it may take a second wave before some people learn
......
....and unfortunately these will be political decisions. They won't ban travellers from the UK, well, because it is the UK.

As they didn't ban travellers from other places right from the very beginning when everything could have been under control - for similar reasons.

Yeah, I'll get my coat now.

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Very interesting interview with Michael Levitt, a Nobel Laurette at Stanford.

Definitely worth the read - but note that the Headline/Title is a bit misleading. He explains and provides compelling info regarding Corona and how various countries responded...

https://www.aier.org/article/nobel-l...-huge-mistake/
From this interview

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The problem I think is outbreaks occurring in different regions. I think social distancing that stops people moving from London to Manchester is probably a really good idea. My feeling is that in London, and in New York City, all the people who got infected, all got infected before anybody noticed. There’s no way that the infection grew so quickly in New York City without the infection spreading very quickly. So one of the key things is to stop people, who know that they’re sick, from infecting the others. .
He's covering all the bases....

Also, what kiwisteve said.

Last edited by greenmount; 02.06.2020 at 10:45. Reason: merging two consecutive posts
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  #10076  
Old 02.06.2020, 10:47
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Re: Coronavirus

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Very interesting interview with Michael Levitt, a Nobel Laurette at Stanford.

Definitely worth the read - but note that the Headline/Title is a bit misleading. He explains and provides compelling info regarding Corona and how various countries responded...

https://www.aier.org/article/nobel-l...-huge-mistake/
Googled his name as I don't know him and the very first hit is this from 28 March. Doesn't exactly cover himself with glory with his predictions there...

Edit...read the article as far as where he completely misunderstands what R-0 actually is and decided the remainder is really not worth remotely looking at. In fact, I want the 10 seconds I needed up to that point back.

Last edited by baboon; 02.06.2020 at 11:25.
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  #10077  
Old 02.06.2020, 11:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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It really didn't require you to insert "only" in front of "0.05%" to show what you really thought of the possible 5,000 deaths.

That's flippancy.
I give up! Now getting getting accused of words that *could* have been written.

The particular poster I was replying to has demonstrated an astonishing lack of statistical understanding and this was the point I was making.

As we learn more about the lockdown and its consequences it is becoming increasingly clear that the hard lockdown has been a step too far. Norway has come out and said that the lockdown was unnecessary, this is a good thing and is how responsible governments behave!

The threat of Coronavirus is not nearly as bad as we first feared it was, it remains a threat, however the millions of deaths that were predicted simply haven't transpired. Governments panicked, insufficient time was given between implementation of social distancing measures and the full lockdown to see if the early measures were sufficient to slow the spread of the virus. Now that more data is available the evidence indicates strongly that the measures were sufficient and hard lockdowns were not necessary.
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  #10078  
Old 02.06.2020, 11:20
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Re: Coronavirus

Yep, I just edited my ignore list with a couple of new names.

I might put the thread on the ignore list too.
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  #10079  
Old 02.06.2020, 11:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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. .....Norway has come out .....
Are you saying this is a gay country

I think you are referring to an article in the Telegraph which did some very selective quoting from a Norwegian expert.

Even I can do selective quotes
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Old 02.06.2020, 11:22
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Re: Coronavirus

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Are you saying this is a gay country

I think you are referring to an article in the Telegraph which did some very selective quoting from a Norwegian expert.

Even I can do selective quotes
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