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  #10161  
Old 05.06.2020, 14:31
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Re: Coronavirus

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Another analysis from the UK shows rates of infection was well in decline before lockdown was implemented.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-lockdown.html
And do the virology experts at the Daily Mail also acknowledge that the lockdown almost certainly substantially decelerated the transmission of coronavirus?

"He said it was possible that social distancing 'might have done the trick' in bringing down Covid-19 cases and deaths without heavy-handed measures" sound like a very definite, factually proven conclusion to me.

It seems to me that a lot of people have forgotten what the primary purpose of the lockdown was: to "flatten the curve", not to save everybody from infection.
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  #10162  
Old 05.06.2020, 14:36
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Re: Coronavirus

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And do the virology experts at the Daily Mail also acknowledge that the lockdown almost certainly substantially decelerated the transmission of coronavirus?

"He said it was possible that social distancing 'might have done the trick' in bringing down Covid-19 cases and deaths without heavy-handed measures" sound like a very definite, factually proven conclusion to me.

It seems to me that a lot of people have forgotten what the primary purpose of the lockdown was: to "flatten the curve", not to save everybody from infection.
It's not the Daily Mail, rather Professor Simon Wood from the University of Bristol. We know that in a number of countries the R rate of infection was either below 1 or well on the decline before lockdown measures were implemented. This is the point, that the curve was already flattening before lockdown happened. Time enough wasn't given to see if social distancing measures were sufficient to reduce the rate of infection. Fair enough given what was known about the spread of the virus back then, not so much if we do see a second wave. This however looks increasingly unlikely in the short term.
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  #10163  
Old 05.06.2020, 14:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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I don't see it that way. My thinking is, with so many residents of the care home being asymptomatic, is it possible that the residents who did die in hospital were also asymptomatic at the time they were admitted?

I accept this entire thing is a huge learning curve for virologists, but as a layperson, I've been struck by how many of the vulnerable elderly population can be asymptomatic for weeks, yet younger people can decline rapidly and pass in less than a week of developing their first symptoms. It appears to me that this virus is constantly turning theories on their heads with each passing day.
It is indeed very odd. Indirectly, I know of a family in which adult children live at home, and of the five family members, four are nurses. One tested positive. He immediately drew a circle around his family, cutting all contact with outsiders, and they all called in to say they weren't coming to work. Through their various employers and doctors, they all obtained tests, and all five, i.e. also the sole non-nurse, have tested positive.

Three became very ill, but did not need to be admitted to hospital. Two are completely asymptomatic! Those two are now working at home, night and day, to nurse the three who are ill.
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  #10164  
Old 05.06.2020, 18:02
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Re: Coronavirus

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It is indeed very odd. Indirectly, I know of a family in which adult children live at home, and of the five family members, four are nurses. One tested positive. He immediately drew a circle around his family, cutting all contact with outsiders, and they all called in to say they weren't coming to work. Through their various employers and doctors, they all obtained tests, and all five, i.e. also the sole non-nurse, have tested positive.

Three became very ill, but did not need to be admitted to hospital. Two are completely asymptomatic! Those two are now working at home, night and day, to nurse the three who are ill.
I am not sure where the strangeness is here. Some people go down with a bad cold, others with a mild one and some do not catch the cold at all. OK, there may be more than one cold virus circulating at any one time but the principle is the same. We all have different immune responses.
Covid seems to share one common trait with ebola -many (all?) the deaths are not caused directly by the virus itself but by the body reacting so heavily that vital functions are compromised. Old people are going to be much more sensitive to having their body systems stuffed up.
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  #10165  
Old 05.06.2020, 19:47
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Re: Coronavirus

I always thought I had it in January, just did an antibody test which shows positive!
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  #10166  
Old 05.06.2020, 20:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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I always thought I had it in January, just did an antibody test which shows positive!
That's "good" news in the sense that you already survived it, so if exposed in the future you don't need to worry as much. And you might be able to use it to travel with fewer restrictions. Did your wife get tested too or will she consider it now?

I've debated getting the test, but the place doing it in Bern doesn't instill a lot of confidence. The website says a positive test means you had some sort of coronavirus recently, but it may or may not be Covid-19. If you had all the symptoms of Covid-19 then you can reasonably assume the test picked up that. If you didn't have symptoms, we don't know for sure. (paraphrased). They also charge more for a positive test than a negative one.
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  #10167  
Old 05.06.2020, 20:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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That's "good" news in the sense that you already survived it, so if exposed in the future you don't need to worry as much. And you might be able to use it to travel with fewer restrictions. Did your wife get tested too or will she consider it now?

I've debated getting the test, but the place doing it in Bern doesn't instill a lot of confidence. The website says a positive test means you had some sort of coronavirus recently, but it may or may not be Covid-19. If you had all the symptoms of Covid-19 then you can reasonably assume the test picked up that. If you didn't have symptoms, we don't know for sure. (paraphrased). They also charge more for a positive test than a negative one.
I was more ill than my wife, so we thought if I was negative my wife would be too, however she will get tested soon. We know a Pilot who had it about the same time & his wife did not catch it, they were together for the previous 5 days as he was not flying. He did a 15km run before flying long haul. He got stopped at the arrival airport as he had a slight temperature, he did not think he wall ill!

The test cost €23 at MIRIALIS labs, it was the ROCHE test, I just walked in off the street.
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  #10168  
Old 05.06.2020, 20:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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UK trial on hydroxychloroquine: ‘It doesn’t work’
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Good news, there was no evidence that it increased the death rate.
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  #10169  
Old 05.06.2020, 20:25
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Re: Coronavirus

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Fair enough given what was known about the spread of the virus back then, not so much if we do see a second wave. This however looks increasingly unlikely in the short term.
agree. second wave can only happens if the hygiene & social distance measures will come back as before, which is not going to happen soon
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  #10170  
Old 05.06.2020, 20:27
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Re: Coronavirus

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Covid seems to share one common trait with ebola -many (all?) the deaths are not caused directly by the virus itself but by the body reacting so heavily that vital functions are compromised. Old people are going to be much more sensitive to having their body systems stuffed up.
same true for common flu
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  #10171  
Old 05.06.2020, 20:33
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Re: Coronavirus

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agree. second wave can only happens if the hygiene & social distance measures will come back as before, which is not going to happen soon
Corona is finished but many countries including CH will falsely and consciously extend it out as an excuse to manipulate and control the people
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  #10172  
Old 05.06.2020, 21:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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Corona is finished but many countries including CH will falsely and consciously extend it out as an excuse to manipulate and control the people
I think CH is not among those countries that will extend it out. They've opened up considerably compared to neighbors, and the federal council is handing power back to the cantons in about 10 days.

However I agree that many other countries will continue to use the virus as an excuse for oppression and "reform".
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  #10173  
Old 05.06.2020, 21:57
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Re: Coronavirus

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Corona is finished but many countries including CH will falsely and consciously extend it out as an excuse to manipulate and control the people
5500 dead yesterday.
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  #10174  
Old 05.06.2020, 22:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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Corona is finished but many countries including CH will falsely and consciously extend it out as an excuse to manipulate and control the people
Well, that's direct democracy out the window then, isn't it?
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Old 05.06.2020, 22:08
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yes, the mistake they made like so many others, is that Sweden allowed the virus to enter care homes and hospitals. Note Mr Tegnell at no point said Sweden should have gone into full lockdown.
Just out of interest the coronavirus deaths per million in Sweden have now overtaken France; 460 versus 446.

Likely full lockdown would have held Swedish coronavirus deaths per million at similar levels to their surrounding countries
Norway 44
Finland 51
Denmark 101

The Swedish approach was an unmitigated disaster.
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Old 05.06.2020, 22:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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5500 dead yesterday.
True, and over 1,000 in the US alone while Trump pretends it is not happening
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  #10177  
Old 05.06.2020, 22:43
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Re: Coronavirus

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Just out of interest the coronavirus deaths per million in Sweden have now overtaken France; 460 versus 446.

Likely full lockdown would have held Swedish coronavirus deaths per million at similar levels to their surrounding countries
Norway 44
Finland 51
Denmark 101

The Swedish approach was an unmitigated disaster.
I am not sure Marton. I think Sweden failed in protecting the elderly as most deaths occurred in nursing homes/elderly care facilities. New York and Pennsylvania made the same mistake... Not sure I completely agree that the lockdown did much other than not overwhelm the healthcare system - which is a good thing!

I guess we will learn more as time goes on. One thing is for sure, if there is not a spike in NYC or Philly after the riots/protesting there then social distancing is definitely not an issue
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Old 05.06.2020, 23:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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I am not sure Marton. I think Sweden failed in protecting the elderly as most deaths occurred in nursing homes/elderly care facilities. New York and Pennsylvania made the same mistake... Not sure I completely agree that the lockdown did much other than not overwhelm the healthcare system - which is a good thing!

I guess we will learn more as time goes on. One thing is for sure, if there is not a spike in NYC or Philly after the riots/protesting there then social distancing is definitely not an issue
Please name a country where most deaths did not occur in nursing homes/elderly care facilities? Sources? Evidence?
Are you claiming the surrounding countries Norway, Finland and Denmark better-protected nursing homes/elderly care facilities? Sources? Evidence?
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  #10179  
Old 05.06.2020, 23:09
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Re: Coronavirus

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Please name a country where most deaths did not occur in nursing homes/elderly care facilities? Sources? Evidence?
Are you claiming the surrounding countries Norway, Finland and Denmark better-protected nursing homes/elderly care facilities? Sources? Evidence?
Singapore is a country where the majority of the outbreaks occurred in worker dorms and not in elderly care facilities. One thing the worker dorms have in common with elder care facilities is closed quarters and density.

I made no mention of surrounding countries and where their outbreaks occurred. Maybe you can give stats here?
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  #10180  
Old 05.06.2020, 23:36
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Re: Coronavirus

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Another analysis from the UK shows rates of infection was well in decline before lockdown was implemented.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-lockdown.html
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And do the virology experts at the Daily Mail also acknowledge that the lockdown almost certainly substantially decelerated the transmission of coronavirus?

"He said it was possible that social distancing 'might have done the trick' in bringing down Covid-19 cases and deaths without heavy-handed measures" sound like a very definite, factually proven conclusion to me.

It seems to me that a lot of people have forgotten what the primary purpose of the lockdown was: to "flatten the curve", not to save everybody from infection.
But you guys talk GB. Remember? Not lock down but herd immunity was their thing. So >>rates of infection was well in decline before lockdown was implemented>> could very well be correct.
When did they actually start to worry? When Boris started coughing?
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