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  #10461  
Old 22.06.2020, 23:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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Interesting times and sounds like a good idea in principle.
Big savings on office space and energy for UBS, so it's a great idea for them.
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  #10462  
Old 23.06.2020, 00:35
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Re: Coronavirus

New deaths attributed to Covid-19
Seven-day rolling average of new deaths (per million),
by number of days since 0.1 average deaths (per million) first recorded

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/...&values=deaths
Data updated June 22 2020 6.40pm BST
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  #10463  
Old 23.06.2020, 11:01
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Re: Coronavirus

Happier times!
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In both countries the current death numbers are in line of those of a bad flu season, nothing abnormal.

Currently in Spain 18k dead from corona, 15k dead from flu in 2018
Currently in Italy 21k dead from corona, 20k dead from flu in 2015

When you see the age range of the victims 90% are in the 80+, hence the risk to the general public is non existent. Even those from risk groups have between 80 and 90% chances of beating the virus

Instead of closing up the economy and making disastrous effects on everybody for the next 10 years, they could have isolated only those vulnerable.

What did Italy do in 2015 when there were 20k dead from flu? Did they close the borders and the healthy at home?
Corona deaths now and still rising
Spain 28K+
Italy 34K+
So now double the deaths versus the flu season and still ever more corona deaths.

According to https://www.statista.com in Spain the disease mostly affected those aged 70-79 years; not true that 90% are in the 80+ age range.

The distribution of coronavirus cases in Italy as of June 15, 2020, by age group shows people over age of 70 were 38% of the cases.
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  #10464  
Old 23.06.2020, 11:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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How easily a second wave could happen. In this case it's down to the abattoir cases and local and will given it's in Germany will probably be controlled. But could so easily spread.
An explanation can be found in this thread:

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1275335422881738752

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From The Spectator's Covid-19 newsletter:
The rise in Germany’s R-number – from 1.8 to 2.9 – is big news in Britain. But not in Germany. Why?

Because the local outbreak in North Rhine-Westphalia at a meat processing plant is being handled, so far, without the need to lock down. Cases are so low now in Germany that even a local outbreak is capable of pushing the national R-number up.

Robert Koch Institute, which produces Germany’s R-number: "Since case numbers in Germany generally low, these local outbreaks have relatively strong influence on value of R-number." A caveat rather ruins the story. Idea of German second wave gets a lot more clicks on social media
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  #10465  
Old 23.06.2020, 12:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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An explanation can be found in this thread:

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1275335422881738752
That's somewhat selective reporting. IIRC, the workers at the abattoir have themselves been quarantined, so in fact the outbreak is indeed being dealt with by means of a new local, total lockdown. Luckily, in this case, it was possible to determine who had the disease and who was most likely to be infected or at risk.

As for COVID-19 being a septuagenarians' (or older) disease, who knew that so many old age pensioners worked in German abattoirs?
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  #10466  
Old 23.06.2020, 12:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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That's somewhat selective reporting. IIRC, the workers at the abattoir have themselves been quarantined, so in fact the outbreak is indeed being dealt with by means of a new local, total lockdown. Luckily, in this case, it was possible to determine who had the disease and who was most likely to be infected or at risk.

As for COVID-19 being a septuagenarians' (or older) disease, who knew that so many old age pensioners worked in German abattoirs?
Oh but look! Breaking news on the BBC... how serendipitous...

Quote:
Coronavirus: Germany outbreak sparks fresh local lockdown

German authorities are bringing back local lockdown measures after an outbreak linked to a meatpacking plant.

The premier of the North Rhine-Westphalia state said restrictions will return in the Gütersloh district, home to about 360,000 people.

Armen Laschet said the lockdown would last until 30 June, and described the move as a "preventative measure".

It is the first return of containment measures since Germany began lifting its lockdown in May.

The country was widely praised for its response to the pandemic but there are concerns infections are rising again.

Lothar Wieler, head of Germany's public health body the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), told reporters on Tuesday the country was at risk of a second wave of infections but said he was optimistic they could prevent it.

Currently the reproduction rate or R number in Germany is estimated at 2.76.
2.76 -- and that's the figure for the country as a whole -- is not a pretty R0.
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  #10467  
Old 23.06.2020, 12:57
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Re: Coronavirus

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As for COVID-19 being a septuagenarians' (or older) disease, who knew that so many old age pensioners worked in German abattoirs?
There's a massive difference between "infected" and "dead". As massive as the difference between life and death. While it's true that those infected are "young", they are merely infected. What's their death rate? A meat processing plant is a heaven for infections, humid air circulating in closed area, people in proximity to each other, etc, etc.

Sorry for interrupting, please keep on panicking!
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  #10468  
Old 23.06.2020, 13:55
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Re: Coronavirus

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Oh but look! Breaking news on the BBC... how serendipitous...

2.76 -- and that's the figure for the country as a whole -- is not a pretty R0.
It displays a sad degeneration in the UK press that they're jumping all over this story ready to go into full panic mode, whereas in Germany it's largely being reporting it as the local anomaly which it is.

The reason the national R number has jumped so much in Germany is because the national rate of infections is so LOW. This means even a local outbreak like this one has a large effect on the R number. Don't panic Captain Mainwaring!
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  #10469  
Old 23.06.2020, 13:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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There's a massive difference between "infected" and "dead". As massive as the difference between life and death. While it's true that those infected are "young", they are merely infected. What's their death rate? A meat processing plant is a heaven for infections, humid air circulating in closed area, people in proximity to each other, etc, etc.

Sorry for interrupting, please keep on panicking!
Oh yeah, lolz, . I forgot, it's all a joke.

Actually, my post was in referenc eto the earlier one today from marton:
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According to https://www.statista.com in Spain the disease mostly affected those aged 70-79 years; not true that 90% are in the 80+ age range.

The distribution of coronavirus cases in Italy as of June 15, 2020, by age group shows people over age of 70 were 38% of the cases.
Who said anything about deaths? Neither me, nor marton, in these posts.
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  #10470  
Old 23.06.2020, 19:46
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Re: Coronavirus

COVID-19 deniers, this is FYI, without comment, except to point out that influenza deaths are also shown on this animated bar graph that shows cumulative deaths worldwide from various causes in 2020.

https://public.flourish.studio/visua...lS7AzOVuSp0dXw

It's worth clicking on that link. It's a shame I can't get the graph to display directly on this page.
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  #10471  
Old 23.06.2020, 20:09
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Re: Coronavirus

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Sorry for interrupting, please keep on panicking!
I guess you think people are just panicking as long as it isn't you or someone you love that is slowly suffocating? I was just talking to someone (from the US) earlier today who had COVID and spent two weeks in the ICU. She's only 38. She told me that she will never take the act of breathing for granted again.

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COVID-19 deniers, this is FYI, without comment, except to point out that influenza deaths are also shown on this animated bar graph that shows cumulative deaths worldwide from various causes in 2020.

https://public.flourish.studio/visua...lS7AzOVuSp0dXw

It's worth clicking on that link. It's a shame I can't get the graph to display directly on this page.
Wow.

Last edited by Pancakes; 23.06.2020 at 21:38.
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  #10472  
Old 23.06.2020, 21:07
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Re: Coronavirus

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It displays a sad degeneration in the UK press that they're jumping all over this story ready to go into full panic mode, whereas in Germany it's largely being reporting it as the local anomaly which it is.

The reason the national R number has jumped so much in Germany is because the national rate of infections is so LOW. This means even a local outbreak like this one has a large effect on the R number. Don't panic Captain Mainwaring!
Perhaps you would be so kind as to explain to those of us who are a bit slow (like me) what is exactly "less full panic mode" between the following headline from Deutsche Welle (DW) which is a German government-funded public international broadcaster.
Quote:
Coronavirus latest: Germany lockdown widened after meat-packing outbreak
Source

and the headline from the BBC link provided by 22 yards

Quote:
Coronavirus: German outbreak sparks fresh local lockdowns
in my simple way, I thought the DW headline was more in the direction of panic mode, I quote "Germany lockdown widened" versus the BBC "local lockdowns", anyway I am sure you can help us
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Old 23.06.2020, 21:21
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Re: Coronavirus

Novak Djokovic has learned it the hard way today. What an idiot.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...id-19-12013201
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Old 23.06.2020, 21:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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It's worth clicking on that link. It's a shame I can't get the graph to display directly on this page.
I did. More alarmism. Did you read the fine-print?

"Except COVID, causes of death shown account for ~7% of global deaths annually"

In other words, we show full COVID impact, but the other drivers only up to 7%. Add another 93% and then COVID will be dwarfed to a point to be invisible. Unless you're reading this thread where its panic 24/7

Daily, about 150k people die from various reasons. DAILY. This is the reason why they can't show you a truly impactful graph of COVID vs. all deaths because it's negligible.
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Old 23.06.2020, 21:42
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Re: Coronavirus

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According to https://www.statista.com in Spain the disease mostly affected those aged 70-79 years; not true that 90% are in the 80+ age range.
Not sure what data statista is showing, but from this report, Table 7 in page 11, 63% of the deaths (at that point, mid-end of May) were 80+ and 24% 70-79. Maybe more interesting are the charts in page 8; the difference between both age groups for no-hospitalizations and ICU is probably the main reason for the different mortality rate. Call this triage, call it avoiding therapeutical obstinacy, it is probably the sum of both things but more the first one.
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Old 23.06.2020, 21:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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French coronaviruses can't even manage a one-metre leap, apparently.
Rather poor performance for frogs.
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Old 23.06.2020, 21:47
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Re: Coronavirus

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Quite poor for frogs.
Now I understand why you were defending the Mohrenkopf so strongly!
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  #10478  
Old 23.06.2020, 22:10
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Re: Coronavirus

Problem is, the virus can leave you with health problems even if you do recover. Not cheerful reading I'm afraid.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...d-19-infection
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Old 23.06.2020, 22:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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Not sure what data statista is showing, but from this report, Table 7 in page 11, 63% of the deaths (at that point, mid-end of May) were 80+ and 24% 70-79. Maybe more interesting are the charts in page 8; the difference between both age groups for no-hospitalizations and ICU is probably the main reason for the different mortality rate. Call this triage, call it avoiding therapeutical obstinacy, it is probably the sum of both things but more the first one.
I was quoting infections; you are quoting deaths
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Old 23.06.2020, 22:43
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Re: Coronavirus

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Problem is, the virus can leave you with health problems even if you do recover. Not cheerful reading I'm afraid.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...d-19-infection
There are also tons of young people who some months ago were normal healthy people who could easily walk 10KM, 20KM or more, now they struggle with how to do the shoppings around the corner. And often it is people who experienced the disease itself as mildly and needed no medical attention by then.
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