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  #11461  
Old 09.08.2020, 09:47
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Re: Coronavirus

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Lockdown 'killed two people for every three who died of coronavirus' at peak of outbreak

Estimates show 16,000 people died through missed medical care by May 1, while virus killed 25,000 in same period

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...d-coronavirus/

It also shows that we can make the world a better place, if we want to.


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The report also found that 2,500 lives may have been saved during lockdown because of healthier lifestyles, fewer infectious diseases in children, falls in air pollution and a decrease in road deaths....
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  #11462  
Old 09.08.2020, 10:08
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Re: Coronavirus

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"Uk has more deaths from flu in winter 2017/2018 than in Coronavirus outbreak."
You are not comparing like with like.
Flu season without lockdown versus COVID-19 season with lockdown.
Also, flu deaths are usually statistically extrapolated and large. Covid deaths are usually hospital deaths after positive test and seen as smaller than actual figures.
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  #11463  
Old 09.08.2020, 10:51
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Re: Coronavirus

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Lockdown 'killed two people for every three who died of coronavirus' at peak of outbreak

Estimates show 16,000 people died through missed medical care by May 1, while virus killed 25,000 in same period

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...d-coronavirus/
As usual willfully missing the point.

25,000 were killed by Covid DESPITE lockdown. The question is how many would have died without Lockdown. In that period would have been somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000.

Last edited by baboon; 09.08.2020 at 13:03.
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  #11464  
Old 09.08.2020, 11:51
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Re: Coronavirus

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I was a lot more worried about Ebola spreading around the world... and that turned out ok!!
I bet you're not thinking like that anymore.
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Old 09.08.2020, 14:19
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Re: Coronavirus

From this morning’s NY Times

https://nyti.ms/2C93aPd


Should not be behind a paywall. The authors argue that for the US to control the outbreak of COVID, more sheltering in place is needed, albeit temporarily. Note that this is US centric, but I believe these guys both know their stuff and are sensitive to the economic needs.
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  #11466  
Old 09.08.2020, 17:34
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Re: How do you prepare for 'THE SECOND WAVE' ?

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1. Bought a folding bike to avoid crowded stations, where possible can be stopped by our great policemen...
2. Bought some toilet rolls...last time have to queue for 3 hours in the morning to have some...My colleagues were telling me before paper disappeared to buy some...I didn't believe people can be so crazy...
3. Bought some cloth masks with joker smile as a sign of protest...but also bought some surgical in case that will meet very though policemen...

You guys, how did you prepared?...maybe I can inspire from some of the folks on the forum...
2nd wave? Took a 1 month vacation in July to relax, less stress is good for health and immune system. Trying my best to keep my job during the next 2 years and ensure the cash stash grows for unforeseen troubles. After my quarantine ends, run and ride the bike while the summer lasts =)
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  #11467  
Old 09.08.2020, 20:16
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Re: Coronavirus

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As usual willfully missing the point.

25,000 were killed by Covid DESPITE lockdown. The question is how many would have died without Lockdown. In that period would have been somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000.
It's remarkable despite there not being a SHRED of evidence, anywhere in the world, that between 100,000 and 200,000 would have died without a lockdown, that people can quote these numbers seriously. Not a single country that didn't lockdown has seen numbers like these.

Then there's the example of Sweden that didn't lockdown and has about 6000 deaths to date.

Also there is Mumbai's slums where loads have had the virus with a very low death rate.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKCN24V09Z

So many much evidence to the contrary and yet people are still clinging to the belief that lockdown was necessary
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  #11468  
Old 09.08.2020, 20:23
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Re: Coronavirus

I think this article describes many of the views on this thread!!

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Lockdown supporters cannot bear the thought that Sweden has got it right

An honest appraisal of how the Scandinavian country has fared raises plenty of awkward questions for politicians in the rest of Europe

Sweden has fulfilled the same role during the Covid-19 crisis as Argentina fulfils in every World Cup. It’s the team which everyone – apart from the natives themselves, naturally – wants to get beaten. This has been especially true in the liberal US press, which has taken time off from berating Donald Trump to publish lengthy pieces on the supposed failure of the Swedish approach. “The Swedish government didn’t enforce social distancing,” began the Washington Monthly, for example, in May when Sweden briefly had the world’s highest death rate from the disease. “It’s now paying the price – in lives and GDP.”

Even neighbouring Nordic countries – normally peas in a pod – have taken against Sweden. When Denmark and Norway re-opened their borders to the world they initially left out Sweden. Sweden’s chief epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, who has acquired a rock star image among some of his countrymen, is seen as a maverick by many abroad.

It’s not hard to see why politicians, officials and many others around the world need Sweden to fail and to fail spectacularly. If the Scandinavian country is not seen to suffer for its failure to lock down its population and close down much of its economy then citizens in other countries are going to start asking awkward questions.

For a while it looked as if Sweden might well fail spectacularly. While other, locked-down countries saw their rates of new infection plummet and gradually unlocked, infections in Sweden remained stubbornly high. Economic projections suggested that Sweden was going to suffer a deep recession anyway. All those needless deaths, it seemed, and Swedes were still going to lose their jobs.

Then came July, and a reminder that lockdown is no long-term solution to a pandemic. Infection rates began to creep up in countries which had locked down – first Spain, then Germany, France, Belgium. Some have been going to into selective second lockdowns. All they had really done by incarcerating their populations for weeks is sweep the virus under the carpet for another day. Sweden, by contrast, has as yet seen no second wave.

Meanwhile, the Swedish economy has surprised on the upside. Last week, its economy was revealed to have shrunk by 8.6 per cent in the second quarter – cataclysmic by normal standards, of course, yet in the circumstances it counts as a triumph. GDP across the Eurozone shrank by 12 per cent, with Spain’s economy plunging by 18 per cent quarter on quarter. Britain’s GDP figures won’t be out until next Wednesday, but we will be doing very well if we don’t out-shrink Spain. At one point the Office of Budgetary Responsibility was penciling in a 35 per cent plunge for the UK in the second quarter.

There was no way that Sweden, with many of its neighbours’ economies closed, was going to escape without a sharp contraction. Volvo, for example, suffered a 38 per cent fall in sales as showrooms across Europe were closed. Nevertheless, there is an intriguing possibility that Sweden could be just about the only developed country to manage to get through the Covid-19 crisis without technically suffering a recession – defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

Alone in Europe, it managed to grow its economy by 0.4 percent in the first quarter. One after another, Swedish companies have produced results which have exceeded expectations. There have been few bankruptcies. What’s more, having kept factories and other workplaces open throughout the crisis, the Swedes have an advantage in the recovery. They don’t have a workforce which has lost the habit of working, which enjoyed weeks off in the spring sunshine and is now reluctant to return.

But was it worth all those deaths? The case against Sweden rests on comparisons with its neighbours, Denmark and Norway. On that basis, Sweden looks to have come off badly – its 571 deaths per million residents seems reckless compared with that of Denmark (106) or Norway (47). But then are Denmark and Norway the right comparators?

Sweden has much more significant urban areas compared with Norway, and it has a high number people who take skiing holidays in the Alps – which seems to have been the seat, or one of the main seats, of Covid-19 in Europe. Significantly, Sweden has a lower death rate than many European countries which did go into full lockdown, such as Italy (582), Spain (610), the UK (683) and Belgium (850).

But even if Sweden has suffered a relatively high number of deaths to date, that is not the end of the story. As John Giesecke, Sweden’s former chief epidemiologist and adviser to the World Health Organisation (WHO), argued in April we won’t really be able to judge how different countries have performed until the crisis has reached some kind of conclusion, either through a vaccine or the natural decline of the virus. His belief is that, eventually, comparable countries will have similar death rates, but the misery – both health and economic – will be spread out far longer in some than others.

Were an effective vaccine to become available this autumn, then the suppression strategy proposed in Professor Neil Ferguson’s paper of March 16 and followed by most developed countries, will seem wise. But just how long are governments prepared to suppress their economies? The longer a vaccine takes to arrive – and there is no guarantee that a vaccine will ever be approved, even if early trials have been promising – then the more that the Swedish approach will seem appealing.

The disappointing news from Sweden’s point of view is that antibody tests suggest that the country is still far from achieving herd immunity. The country’s Public Health Agency revealed in June that even in Stockholm, the worst-affected place in the country, only 10 percent of the population had antibodies – way short of the 60 to 80 percent which our own chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, suggested would be needed for herd immunity.

Not all scientists are agreed on this, however. Last week, modelling in a yet-to-be published paper by an international group of scientists led by Gabriella Gomes of Strathclyde University claimed that the 60 percent is only applicable where herd immunity is gained through a vaccine programme given randomly to a population. If a virus is allowed to spread naturally, on the other hand, it will affect the more susceptible people first (people who either have fewer natural defences or who have more contacts).

Once this group has been infected, the virus finds it much harder to spread and herd immunity will be reached at a much lower level – when between 10 and 20 percent of the population have been infected. If that is right, Sweden might be far closer to herd immunity than previously believed.

In the meantime, Sweden finds itself with unfamiliar friends and unfamiliar enemies. Thanks to its generous welfare policies it is more often a country praised on the left and condemned by economic liberals. Now it is now the other way around. Ultimately Sweden might just end up pleasing both groups – if, thanks to a less-damaged economy, it emerges as the only country able to avoid deep welfare cuts.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...has-got-right/
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  #11469  
Old 09.08.2020, 20:29
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Re: Coronavirus

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It's remarkable despite there not being a SHRED of evidence, anywhere in the world, that between 100,000 and 200,000 would have died without a lockdown, that people can quote these numbers seriously. Not a single country that didn't lockdown has seen numbers like these.

Then there's the example of Sweden that didn't lockdown and has about 6000 deaths to date.

Also there is Mumbai's slums where loads have had the virus with a very low death rate.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKCN24V09Z

So many much evidence to the contrary and yet people are still clinging to the belief that lockdown was necessary
The Swedish death rate is over two and a half times the Swiss; the opposite of successful.

You keep claiming COVID-19 hurts only old people; how many old people live in the Mumbai's slums?
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Old 09.08.2020, 20:38
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Re: Coronavirus

I apologize if someone has already mentioned this here, but I noticed earlier today, in an article in The Local, that there will be a meeting on August 12th where it might be decided that masks will be made mandatory in all stores across all of Switzerland:

Everything that changes in August 2020 in Switzerland
https://www.thelocal.ch/20200804/eve...in-switzerland

"What else could change? Circle August 12 on your calendar

Amid rising infection rates across the country - particularly in Geneva - the federal government is considering implementing further restrictions, most notably acting on a recommendation of the Board of Directors of the Health Directors' Conference (GDK) to make masks in shops compulsory in all cantons.

This meeting will take place on August 12th.

While some cantons - Geneva, Jura and Vaud - already have compulsory masks in shops, the result of the meeting could be a nationwide requirement."
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Old 09.08.2020, 20:42
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Re: Coronavirus

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I think this article describes many of the views on this thread!!

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...has-got-right/
"even in Stockholm, the worst-affected place in the country, only 10 percent of the population had antibodies"

Just proves how little we know about COViD-19.
I mentioned earlier I am taking part in the Zürich University hospital COVID-19 study. So far around 10,000 people in Zürich Kanton have been randomly selected and tested; roughly 10% have antibodies.
I have no idea why it turned out like this?
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  #11472  
Old 09.08.2020, 20:42
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Re: Coronavirus

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It's remarkable despite there not being a SHRED of evidence, anywhere in the world, that between 100,000 and 200,000 would have died without a lockdown, that people can quote these numbers seriously. Not a single country that didn't lockdown has seen numbers like these.

Then there's the example of Sweden that didn't lockdown and has about 6000 deaths to date.

Also there is Mumbai's slums where loads have had the virus with a very low death rate.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKCN24V09Z

So many much evidence to the contrary and yet people are still clinging to the belief that lockdown was necessary
Ah let them be... Bankrupting the world and robbing half a generation of their future somehow needs to be justified. Give it another few months... At some point, the whole lockdown-blabla-discussion needs to be put to rest anyway, from all sides, as it doesn't matter anymore. The damage has been done.

But since the Sweden example seems to be milked into infinity - thereby conveniently leaving out comparisons to e.g. Belgium, which well locked down, yet fared "worse" - here's an illustration of Sweden's massive failure among the Nordics https://miro.medium.com/max/1400/1*0...HMi09HF5rA.png / https://miro.medium.com/max/1400/1*M...h4FEcdRckw.png (granted, the latter is until week 23, so I'm sure numbers have exploded in the last 8 weeks).

This is of course under the assumption the data is correct, but then again these days, that same thing goes for literally everything

Also: https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/...s-perspective/ But given it's a Swedish doctor, it's probably totally not believable and generally irrelevant, as all things Sweden are these days cause they obviously know nothing... And like all others, this too is an anecdotal report, just like the ones that claim the opposite. It does not negate that others may have a different experience or perspective. It's called creating a balanced viewpoint.
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  #11473  
Old 09.08.2020, 20:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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Ah let them be... Bankrupting the world and robbing half a generation of their future somehow needs to be justified. Give it another few months... At some point, the whole lockdown-blabla-discussion needs to be put to rest anyway, from all sides, as it doesn't matter anymore. The damage has been done.

But since the Sweden example seems to be milked into infinity - thereby conveniently leaving out comparisons to e.g. Belgium, which well locked down, yet fared "worse" - here's an illustration of Sweden's massive failure among the Nordics https://miro.medium.com/max/1400/1*0...HMi09HF5rA.png / https://miro.medium.com/max/1400/1*M...h4FEcdRckw.png (granted, the latter is until week 23, so I'm sure numbers have exploded in the last 8 weeks).

This is of course under the assumption the data is correct, but then again these days, that same thing goes for literally everything

Also: https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/...s-perspective/ But given it's a Swedish doctor, it's probably totally not believable and generally irrelevant, as all things Sweden are these days cause they obviously know nothing... And like all others, this too is an anecdotal report, just like the ones that claim the opposite. It does not negate that others may have a different experience or perspective. It's called creating a balanced viewpoint.
Google around and many people oppose the Swedish doctor's views, for example ""We think losing 0.06% of the population is fine and it's irrelevant that other countries have only lost a tenth of that or less" isn't really a winner either.
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  #11474  
Old 09.08.2020, 21:02
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Re: Coronavirus

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As usual willfully missing the point.
Nah, he simply disagrees.

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It's called creating a balanced viewpoint.
Yes.
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  #11475  
Old 09.08.2020, 21:05
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Re: Coronavirus

I think that masks being made mandatory in public across all of Switzerland and perhaps some other things (like kids going to school less days per week, etc.) would be done before we went into lockdown mode again.

My son is only in primary school, but I admit that I'm nervous about him beginning school next week. I'm curious if any other parents are worried as well. I came across stories in the news recently about outbreaks at schools after the kids returned from summer break. And in the US news yesterday, there was a story about an otherwise perfectly healthy 7-year old dying from the virus.

It's difficult to find the right balance sometimes, between feeling paranoid and feeling cautious or justifiably worried, I guess. It's easy to think something isn't really a problem or couldn't possibly happen to you until it does.
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  #11476  
Old 09.08.2020, 21:08
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Re: Coronavirus

Stop comparing Sweden with countries like Belgium - you're embarrassing yourselves with a lack of a basic understanding of concepts such as geography and population density.

Belgium

11.5 million people

area: 30,689 km2

(22nd most densely populated country in the world)

Sweden

10.5 million people

area: 450,295 Km2

(159th most densely populated country in the world)

Can you see how something like a contagious disease may have an easier chance of being transmitted around Belgium than Sweden?

Would you like me to draw a picture of a Belgium landscape, and then one of a Swedish landscape? Perhaps that might make it clearer.


I found a quote that sums it up:

"Arguing with an idiot is like playing chess with a pidgeon. It'll just knock over all the pieces, shit on the board, and strut about like it's won anyway."

You know who you are.
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Old 09.08.2020, 21:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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Nah, he simply disagrees.

Yes.
Is V___ a "he", thanks for the info (Mods know such things!)

Using anecdotal evidence to claim to create a balanced viewpoint is an unusual approach!
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  #11478  
Old 09.08.2020, 22:24
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Re: Coronavirus

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Also, flu deaths are usually statistically extrapolated and large. Covid deaths are usually hospital deaths after positive test and seen as smaller than actual figures.
How they know these patients died from coronavirus if autopsy have not been allowed...
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Old 09.08.2020, 22:32
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Re: Coronavirus

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Also: https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/...s-perspective/ But given it's a Swedish doctor, it's probably totally not believable and generally irrelevant, as all things Sweden are these days cause they obviously know nothing... And like all others, this too is an anecdotal report, just like the ones that claim the opposite. It does not negate that others may have a different experience or perspective. It's called creating a balanced viewpoint.
So what.

The author says himself that his description is entirely anecdotal and as such statistically meaningless.

Of course it's anything but certain that he's actually the person he claims to be.

Oh and btw, Belgium counts every deceased with Covid symptoms as a Covid death, no test necessary. For comparison, even during the "hottest" weeks (a time when only people advised to seek hospital help by their doctor got tested) the test-positive rate in Switzerland among the people seeking hospital help was in the 15% range, that should give you an idea of the overcount the Belgian numbers include.
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Old 09.08.2020, 22:33
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Re: Coronavirus

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Stop comparing Sweden with countries like Belgium - you're embarrassing yourselves with a lack of a basic understanding of concepts such as geography and population density.

Belgium

11.5 million people

area: 30,689 km2

(22nd most densely populated country in the world)

Sweden

10.5 million people

area: 450,295 Km2

(159th most densely populated country in the world)

Can you see how something like a contagious disease may have an easier chance of being transmitted around Belgium than Sweden?

Would you like me to draw a picture of a Belgium landscape, and then one of a Swedish landscape? Perhaps that might make it clearer.


I found a quote that sums it up:

"Arguing with an idiot is like playing chess with a pidgeon. It'll just knock over all the pieces, shit on the board, and strut about like it's won anyway."

You know who you are.
At least you were clever enough to not quote me, this way your unacceptable insult is at least somewhat less direct. Of course your equally clever response will be "oh you're the one who feels this is about you" since you wrote "you know who you are". Smart!

Thanks for offering to draw a map for me, that's very kind. While you're at it, also draw one of Japan and specifically Tokyo, Beijing, Shanghai, Seoul, and so on, and try to expand your population density argument.
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