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Old 13.08.2020, 11:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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I think you mean disgraced, not discredited. Please try and be a bit more accurate in future.
No, discredited. It's a wonder that anyone takes his opinions seriously given that he has been wrong on Foot and Mouth, BSE, Bird Flu, Swine Flu and now Covid through flawed modeling methodology and outdated coding.

Nowhere in the world has seen any numbers even approaching the doomsday scenario that Professor Ferguson predicted.
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Old 13.08.2020, 11:22
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Re: Coronavirus

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Even less if the simply ice-o-lated, just like Antarctica
Is it your joke or kids'. It is awesome

Last edited by MusicChick; 13.08.2020 at 11:44.
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  #11563  
Old 13.08.2020, 11:38
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Re: Coronavirus

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No, discredited. It's a wonder that anyone takes his opinions seriously given that he has been wrong on Foot and Mouth, BSE, Bird Flu, Swine Flu and now Covid through flawed modeling methodology and outdated coding.

Nowhere in the world has seen any numbers even approaching the doomsday scenario that Professor Ferguson predicted.
Thanks to the lockdowns
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Old 13.08.2020, 11:47
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Re: Coronavirus

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Nowhere in the world has seen any numbers even approaching the doomsday scenario that Professor Ferguson predicted.
You seem disappointed? Is this not a good thing?
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Old 13.08.2020, 12:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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Nowhere in the world has seen any numbers even approaching the doomsday scenario that Professor Ferguson predicted.
Again, selective comprehension it seems.

I believe he said in the worst case scenario, up to 60% of the UK could be infected.

He didn't say this is what he thought would happen.
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Old 13.08.2020, 12:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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Again, selective comprehension it seems.

I believe he said in the worst case scenario, up to 60% of the UK could be infected.

He didn't say this is what he thought would happen.
60% would be good as thats about where heard immunity would be reached without any requirement to social distance, with social distancing I understand 25% would work.
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  #11567  
Old 13.08.2020, 12:38
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Re: Coronavirus

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Again, selective comprehension it seems.

I believe he said in the worst case scenario, up to 60% of the UK could be infected.

He didn't say this is what he thought would happen.
No, read the entire report. Almost everything they predicted has been wrong. Some highlights:

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Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major challenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.

The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed.

Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf
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  #11568  
Old 13.08.2020, 12:50
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Re: Coronavirus

Currently the UK is experiencing a new positve case rate of 0.0015% of the population, with a death rate of 0.00012% of the population.


Simply terrifiying. Maybe it's time I joined the bed wetters.
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  #11569  
Old 13.08.2020, 13:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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Currently the UK is experiencing a new positve case rate of 0.0015% of the population, with a death rate of 0.00012% of the population.


Simply terrifiying. Maybe it's time I joined the bed wetters.
They are known as COVID deniers
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Old 13.08.2020, 13:23
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Re: Coronavirus

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No, read the entire report. Almost everything they predicted has been wrong. Some highlights:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf
How can you claim almost everything they predicted has been wrong before the pandemic is over?
It is simply a case of your prediction versus their prediction except you avoid forecasting numbers.
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  #11571  
Old 13.08.2020, 13:24
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Re: Coronavirus

Why are there no fines for non mask wearers on public transport? Why make it compulsory but zero enforcement or checks? Just a compulsory sticker on bus door is not working here.

Either masks work or they don't! If they do then bloody enforce it! In my area atleast 20% don't put on any mask. Another 20% don't cover their nose.
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Old 13.08.2020, 13:27
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Re: Coronavirus

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Currently the UK is experiencing a new positve case rate of 0.0015% of the population, with a death rate of 0.00012% of the population.
Like that's in any way relevant?

What is relevant is the R - the reproduction rate. Measures have to be taken so the reproduction rate below 1 and _stays_ below 1, so these numbers do not increase. Because if R stays above 1 you WILL end up with as many cases and deaths that you won't be able to handle.

So far the only measures that work to keep R low is confinement, wearing of masks, distancing and hygiene. We'll discuss again when we have a working vaccine
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Old 13.08.2020, 13:36
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Re: Coronavirus

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No, read the entire report. Almost everything they predicted has been wrong. Some highlights:



https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf
We're at 41,000 deaths and counting. I wouldn't gleefully be announcing how wrong he is, just yet.
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Old 13.08.2020, 13:37
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Re: Coronavirus

The UK has just dropped their Covid death numbers by 5000. 5000! They couldn't even get that right
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Old 13.08.2020, 13:47
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Re: Coronavirus

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The UK has just dropped their Covid death numbers by 5000. 5000! They couldn't even get that right
I believe the annual death rate in Sweden is below average this year too.
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  #11576  
Old 13.08.2020, 13:47
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Re: Coronavirus

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The UK has just dropped their Covid death numbers by 5000. 5000! They couldn't even get that right
I can't believe a professor said this:

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Prof John Newton, director of health improvement at Public Health England (PHE), said: "The way we count deaths in people with Covid-19 in England was originally chosen to avoid underestimating deaths caused by the virus in the early stages of the pandemic."
Thank you professor for overestimating the coronavirus impact!
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Old 13.08.2020, 13:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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I believe the annual death rate in Sweden is below average this year too.
It is the case with many countries, Croatia has had less deaths for the first six months of the year compared to 2019 even though some 3 million tourists visited the country.
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Old 13.08.2020, 13:50
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The UK has just dropped their Covid death numbers by 5000. 5000! They couldn't even get that right
England I believe. Wales and Scotland were already using the 28 day figure, instead of the 60 day England were using.
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Old 13.08.2020, 13:56
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You mean the now totally discredited Professor Neil Ferguson
Nope. Being caught in a legover situation doesn't mean he is remotely discredited.
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I think you mean disgraced, not discredited. Please try and be a bit more accurate in future.
Exactly.
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Old 13.08.2020, 14:01
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I believe the annual death rate in Sweden is below average this year too.
...and as usual for your "I believe's", completely absent of any sort of verification and completely wrong. Roughly 60,000 deaths by end July compared to about 90,000 in a normal year. So near 10,000 above average.

BTW still waiting for you to verify your earlier claim that Corvid mutations have made it less dangerous. Clue - they haven't.

Edit - missed a link https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ber-of-deaths/

Last edited by baboon; 13.08.2020 at 14:33.
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