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  #11761  
Old 18.08.2020, 18:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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At this point where we have an average of 1 death per day, which is my personal level of, o.k. roughly the same as traffic accidents, but it shouldn't be much more?

2 meter rule.
Last call / Polizeistunde around midnight.
Masks in all public indoor spaces (unless totally not practical like while eating in a restaurant or swimming in the pool).
Strong recommendation to use a mask also outdoors.
Strong recommendation for home office (which totally sucks).
Strong recommendation to reduce unnecessary social contacts.
Strong recommendation to use the app or keep a tally of past social contacts and movements.
Strong recommendation to shop only once a week.

Note: Is see a masks only as a tool to prevent droplet dispersion and not as a personal protective equipment. My mask protects you, your mask protects me.
All that infringement on personal freedom and civil liberties for *1 death a day*? Switzerland seems to have managed just fine without all that and without enforcing people to wear masks (other than on public transport). In fact countries like Spain which have far more strict measures, especially regarding masks, have way more cases than Switzerland.

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New quarantine list

Changes effective 20 August:

Removed from the list: Equatorial Guinea, São Tomé and Príncipe, Saudi Arabia, Serbia and Singapore

Added to the list: Albania, Andorra, Aruba, Belgium, Belize, Faroe Islands, Gibraltar, Guam, India, Malta, Monaco, Namibia, Spain (Balearic Islands added)
Still at a loss how they expect to enforce quarantine on people returning from Schengen countries
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  #11762  
Old 18.08.2020, 18:22
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Indeed not a surprise. It was good to be cautious by early March. Today with much more data and insights available restrictions are being lifted. The cautiousness in March was not wrong, there were simply too many unknowns at the time.

Focusing on daily new infections today may not be as relevant as 3 months ago. It can be said today that as long as hospitals are not flooding with patients, everything is OK.
Another factor I forgot to mention earlier is the number of tests that are being done is going up. As an example, in France at the end of July they made Covid tests free of charge so as is to be expected the number of people being tested has risen dramatically as has the number of positive cases. Yet in spite of this the number of hosptialisations and deaths remains very low indeed.

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You know how lockdowns don't eradicate the virus, simply delay the onslaught, and are a total waste of time, money and the future of our children?

New Zealand and Australia, much the same; recent cases appear to be almost exclusively (99%) imported and spread through disregard of lockdown rules.
Wuhan is no exception, as soon as travel is opened up the virus will be back there too. Placing people under house arrest until a vaccine becomes available or shutting down borders like Australia and New Zealand is no long term solution.

The early praise for Jacinda Ardern now seems to be misplaced, especially since she has now imposed the most draconian measures for dealing with Covid outside of China! It's also amusing how much stick President Trump got for hinting at delaying the US elections due to Covid, yet when Ms Ardern has does the same shes heaped with praise (from the press)!

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I'm not sure I agree with you. Can I be conservative with regards to, say, taxation and fiscal policy and liberal with regards to, say, sexual self-identification and equality of rights? Putting people in neat categories is a gross oversimplification which actually leads to the whole polarization as people are unwilling to even listen, they just put you in a category, usually different from the one you're in in order to create antagonism. It's so easy to look for differences. The real challenge is to look for similarities.
Domestic violence surged during lockdown, rates of depression have doubled, teenagers have had their education wrecked. These are all causes that have been "claimed" by the Left in recent years. This is just the tip of the iceberg as more and more consequences of the lockdown become clear over the coming weeks, months and years.

It seems to be the young and most vulnerable in our societies that are affected the worst which is why I can't imagine how anyone can come to the conclusion that this is a left-right political issue. There's a report coming out into the effect of lockdown on cancer deaths this week. I expected it to make grim reading

https://www.theguardian.com/society/...ds-coronavirus

https://www.khon2.com/international/...ring-lockdown/

Last edited by roegner; 18.08.2020 at 18:32. Reason: Please use multiquote button
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  #11763  
Old 18.08.2020, 18:38
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Re: Coronavirus

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It's also amusing how much stick President Trump got for hinting at delaying the US elections due to Covid, yet when Ms Ardern has does the same shes heaped with praise (from the press)!
Ardern's motive for delaying the election: let's give ourselves the best shot at eradicating this virus.

Trump's motive: I'm going down, I need to buy more time in this job and give myself a window to tell more lies to whip up support... and the CHYNAvirus looks as good a scapegoat as any.

I'm surprised you can't see the difference.

In addition, NZ has virtually no active cases of COVID-19 and can reasonably expect to go back to zero within a short time. The US is awash with the disease and postponing the election for anything less than a year or longer would have no effect on case numbers. But if Trump really wants to protect Americans, here's an idea: get everybody to vote by mail! Genius, right? (Or spread voting over two weeks, as it is in New Zealand, so there's no bottleneck at the polling stations.)
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  #11764  
Old 18.08.2020, 19:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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Ardern's motive for delaying the election: let's give ourselves the best shot at eradicating this virus.

Trump's motive: I'm going down, I need to buy more time in this job and give myself a window to tell more lies to whip up support... and the CHYNAvirus looks as good a scapegoat as any.

I'm surprised you can't see the difference.

In addition, NZ has virtually no active cases of COVID-19 and can reasonably expect to go back to zero within a short time. The US is awash with the disease and postponing the election for anything less than a year or longer would have no effect on case numbers. But if Trump really wants to protect Americans, here's an idea: get everybody to vote by mail! Genius, right? (Or spread voting over two weeks, as it is in New Zealand, so there's no bottleneck at the polling stations.)
Arden's motivation was that there were (legitimate) opposition complaints that they can't be banned from campaigning during an election. Not her fault it had to be delayed, but it wasn't really coming from a positive or a negative place.
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Old 18.08.2020, 20:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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Did you just throw around 200 million people in the same bucket? Apart from that, nothing wrong with being rich or religious.

I am not even questioning the study you quoted, especially since it is coherent with my observation, but what to do with that information? Gettin a sense of supremacy? Thinking that there's no need to listen, even to moderate, conservatives? US Democrats, even though they are supposedly that smart, messed up big time with their basket of deplorables, this term has, imho exactly the same mindset behind it.
Trump said thank you...
Hey, "don't shoot the messenger." I didn't just "throw around 200 million people in the same bucket." I linked to and quoted a study. I'm sorry if you don't like its findings, but that doesn't make it false.

Also, you shouldn't make assumptions about me trying to get a sense of supremacy or that I don't listen to "even moderate conservatives." Most of my family members in the US are conservatives. They're the type that claim to be Christian and yet have never read the Bible and never go to church. They're also openly racist.

So while indeed, there may be nothing wrong with being rich or being religious, there is a problem when people try to use their religion as a means to justify the restriction of other people's rights. Not to mention religious people who would prefer kids in public schools to be taught about creationism rather than evolution, etc. or use their religion to feel that it somehow grants them automatic righteousness.
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  #11766  
Old 18.08.2020, 20:47
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Re: Coronavirus

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just an old fashioned conservative (or liberal in the classical sense of the word)
Enough said, right there.
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Old 18.08.2020, 20:51
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Re: Coronavirus

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Ardern's motive for delaying the election: let's give ourselves the best shot at eradicating this virus.

Trump's motive: I'm going down, I need to buy more time in this job and give myself a window to tell more lies to whip up support... and the CHYNAvirus looks as good a scapegoat as any.

I'm surprised you can't see the difference.
It's exactly this kind of muddying that characterizes a person like TonyClifton. He may not actually know he's a Libertarian, just like most people don't know why they're a "conservative" (or in Tony's case, a Liberal! Because everyone's the same! See, no problem folks let's just drink a beer I'm in control follow me!...etc etc).
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Old 18.08.2020, 20:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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All that infringement on personal freedom and civil liberties for *1 death a day*? Switzerland seems to have managed just fine without all that and without enforcing people to wear masks (other than on public transport). In fact countries like Spain which have far more strict measures, especially regarding masks, have way more cases than Switzerland.
You clearly have no idea about Swiss traffic laws
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Old 18.08.2020, 20:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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As arrogant as "people don't realize where on the political spectrum they are". They are where they need to be. Who are we to say that we know exactly why they are there nor where this "place" exactly is and what to call it, each individual opionion.

These assumptions are hilarious and patronizing. And polarizing, btw. I don't think that countries have dealt with CV because there is certain political leadership which would signal political spectrum. That idea is just simplifying the issue, banalizing it.
Ah, so now it doesn't matter what a person identifies them selves as, conservative has no meaning and it's just a matter of opinion – gotcha!

They are where they need to be? What the hell does that mean? I never said I know why they're where they are. I said they don't know, which is the key to understanding the consequences. You're only proving my point. Most people are just "part of the club", not actually having evaluated what it means to be a member of a party or ideology, and certainly not what the consequences are. Thanks for illustrating exactly what I said!
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Old 18.08.2020, 21:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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Most people are just "part of the club", not actually having evaluated what it means to be a member of a party or ideology, and certainly not what the consequences are.
That must be the reason why there are still communists.
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Old 18.08.2020, 21:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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I'm not sure I agree with you. Can I be conservative with regards to, say, taxation and fiscal policy and liberal with regards to, say, sexual self-identification and equality of rights? Putting people in neat categories is a gross oversimplification which actually leads to the whole polarization as people are unwilling to even listen, they just put you in a category, usually different from the one you're in in order to create antagonism. It's so easy to look for differences. The real challenge is to look for similarities.
I never said a person is all one thing (though the cumulation of stances on various issues will usually peg a person right or left leaning, IF they actually self-evaluate, which most don't do, hence "part of the club"). I only said it's important to know why they identify a certain way and what the consequences are. Tony then proceeded to put words in my mouth so he could disagree, but he's not a contrarian, no.
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Old 18.08.2020, 21:20
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That must be the reason why there are still communists.
Definitely (as opposed to "socialist" which carries much more actual meaning).
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Old 18.08.2020, 21:22
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Re: Coronavirus

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You're joking, right? Absolutely. If you view the political spectrum as a circle rather than a line, the extremes wind up being indistinguishable from each other. But the whole 20/20 hindsight thing seems to be much more a right wing thing thanks to their media outlets shaping that narrative.
TBH pretty much everyone I know is treating it reasonably seriously. Most of my contacts (family, friends) are centrists or moderate centre-right.

It is true from my casual observations that people on the left tend to favour stricter rules in theory, but I wouldn't have said that it is a particularly strong correlation or that it extends to people on the right not being in favour of basic safety protocols like mask wearing on public transport. Certainly most of the UK polling shows wide agreement with containment measures.

In practice, my guess would be that older (and thus more likely to be centre-right) people are better at observing the rules than younger (more likely to be centre-left) people. But that is probably more to do with their age and risk tolerance than their politics. I'd also have said that people in conservative Frick are significantly more mask-wearing than those in lefty Basel. Probably just because they are more of the ordung type. I wouldn't read too much into it.

I accept things seem to be very different in the US where Trump has whipped up the Republican base against safety measures - but I'm not sure that this is the case in Europe. After all the only exception to lockdown was the centre-left government in Sweden.
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Old 18.08.2020, 21:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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I would. We could so assume that the way cognitive performance was measured was probably skewed by the scientists' political self identification (so Hello, Dunning Krueger). So - how are we feeling today..conservative/progressive or smart and presumptious/modest and unassuming? My observations aren't really conservative=lowered cognitive performance=right wing. Especially not in CH. Maybe age plays a role in cognitive decline but only sometimes. Political view isn't going to automatically explain an algorithm of reaching this view. Not even in the US.

Those are huge leaps. Studies that research this smell of dubious political intent, tbh.

It wouldn't be justified.

He thinks, progressively, that the mindset behind is the opposite of progress

As per the right vs. the left...that has long gone, in thatt traditional sense which is being recycled here. You can see it clearly in how "right" or "left" leadership in different countries dealt with the CV. Differently. Kinda à la carte.
Assuming a scientific study is skewed without providing any evidence is, of course, the opposite of "dubious political intent".
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  #11775  
Old 18.08.2020, 21:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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TBH pretty much everyone I know is treating it reasonably seriously. Most of my contacts (family, friends) are centrists or moderate centre-right.

It is true from my casual observations that people on the left tend to favour stricter rules, but I wouldn't have said that it is a particularly strong correlation or that it extends to people on the right not being in favour of basic safety protocols like mask wearing on public transport. Certainly most of the UK polling shows wide agreement with containment measures.

One could presume that most of the young kids partying with no masks on are centre left (certainly in the UK, political standpoint correlates highly with age).

I accept things are probably different in the US - but I'm not sure its the same in Europe.
I agree, but we have social pressure to thank for that. In the US people don't care if everyone thinks they're being a selfish, ignorant ass, because Freedom!

Not that I need to clarify this anymore, but my insisting this is a political issue (really, what isn't) and illustrating the typical left="action now" right="wait and see while the left takes action anyway and then we can point fingers and say it wasn't necessary even though it definitely, absolutely was", was not trying to break down how much precaution each side thinks is appropriate, but rather the conservative cherrypicking information to fit the ridiculous "it's the economy, stupid" attitude that got us here in the first place. Because remember, just because they put the rules in place doesn't mean everyone followed them equally. Compared to the rest of the world, Americans and Brits are much less likely to agree to being told what they have to do, and prefer to wait until the bodies are piling up in their neighborhood before the can be convinced..

And I seriously doubt the kids partying without masks have begun to evaluate their politics. I think political standpoint has more to do with socioeconomics and generational influence than age. I've gotten much more liberal with age.

Edit: you changed your post quite a bit so some of this may not apply to your edited comment.
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Old 18.08.2020, 21:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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I agree, but we have social pressure to thank for that. In the US people don't care if everyone thinks they're being a selfish, ignorant ass, because Freedom!

Not that I need to clarify this anymore, but my insisting this is a political issue (really, what isn't) and illustrating the typical left="action now" right="wait and see while the left takes action anyway and then we can point fingers and say it wasn't necessary even though it definitely, absolutely was", was not trying to break down how much precaution each side thinks is appropriate, but rather the conservative cherrypicking information to fit the ridiculous "it's the economy, stupid" attitude that got us here in the first place. Because remember, just because they put the rules in place doesn't mean everyone followed them equally. Compared to the rest of the world, Americans and Brits are much less likely to agree to being told what they have to do, and prefer to wait until the bodies are piling up in their neighborhood before the can be convinced..

And I seriously doubt the kids partying without masks have begun to evaluate their politics. I think political standpoint has more to do with socioeconomics and generational influence than age. I've gotten much more liberal with age.

Edit: you changed your post quite a bit so some of this may not apply to your edited comment.
Don't think the meaning of the post has changed much. Just added more detail.

I'm not sure I quite approve as a Brit of being lumped in with you Americans in this respect. We got off to a similarly bad start, but we turned in a good direction whilst you guys went the wrong way.

There's lots of crappy decisions in the UK still, but that's more to do with trying to run everything from the centre and create an artificial divide between the UK and Europe than just plain old ignoring the science. Even if many of the Boris decisions are pointless and stupid at least they aren't costing more lives. I don't think we have the anti-science stance that many in the US have taken.
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Old 18.08.2020, 21:48
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Re: Coronavirus

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I'm not sure I quite approve as a Brit of being lumped in with you Americans in this respect. We got off to a similarly bad start, but we turned in a good direction whilst you guys went the wrong way.
I absolutely agree there. No offense meant. To be fair though, the US is so big that most Americans haven't seen and don't believe the bodies are actually piling up. As I tell my conservative/libertarian family members, "you won't give a damn until the problem reaches your front doorstep". And of course by then it'll be too late.
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Old 18.08.2020, 21:51
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Re: Coronavirus

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I absolutely agree there. No offense meant. To be fair though, the US is so big that most Americans haven't seen and don't believe the bodies are actually piling up. As I tell my conservative/libertarian family members, "you won't give a damn until the problem reaches your front doorstep". And of course by then it'll be too late.
The red state folk are lucky in that they've got a huge natural advantage. Their low population density. That seems to have outweighed their stance so far. You are probably better off in Wyoming taking no precautions than in a big east/west coast city taking precautions.

If I was being charitable perhaps that influences their viewpoint to a degree.
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Old 18.08.2020, 21:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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Back to the virus in CH, around 2 weeks ago something interesting started to happen. The number of daily detected cases started to increase while the hospitalizations went down. People is getting infected and nothing happens.

https://twitter.com/BAG_OFSP_UFSP/st...746694/photo/2
The virus has asked me to relay its greetings from the BLM protests and bar/restaurant/club reopenings.

Below you see the composition in CH for the positive-tested cases and the resulting hospitalisations by age group (charts 3 & 4: test-positive and death). The first is for all known cases whereas the 2nd is from June 1st only (chars 3&4 likewise). During the first wave the grownup age groups showed roughly the same numer of positives until age 69 (you'd need to deduct the overweight for the young after June from the 1st chart to get there - not very easy so you'll simply have to believe me).

However now it's almost exclusively the young who test positive. And just as importantly, only a relatively few pensioners get infected. This is a clear falsification of the rumors that the old folks in general simply can't be bothered and continue with their lives as if nothing happened. Quite the contrary, the old and frail (who are the most likely to die soon-ish) stay safe from the virus which usually will mean they stay home (or close by).

Doing so they automatically avoid many other dangers awaiting their presence, which is likely to lower overall mortality, too.

Beyond that, the differences in age composition have obviously big consequences for
the hospitalisations and deaths. Otherwise they probably would have already started
to increase mucho if the age composition were the same as in spring.

Two major differences come to mind between spring and summer:
- restaurants, bars and clubs open now
- BLM protests

(charts shamelessly stolen from Tagesanzeiger)



... whereas this is the same for the cases tested positive since June 1st:



===========================

Here's the equivalent, but for test positives and deaths.

First chart all cases, 2nd chart since June 1st. The death rates are much lower even
among the very old, even the +80yr old have "only" 10% death rate - though that
may predominantly be a consequence caused by the delay between test and death.



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Old 18.08.2020, 21:56
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Re: Coronavirus

Interesting statistics. I wonder if the treatment regimes are getting better, one would hope so.
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