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  #11961  
Old 26.08.2020, 11:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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Not sure; the peaks are due to outbreaks of infectious diseases, then and now. The generally much higher baselines in days gone by are due to ....... lower mortality during childbirth, decreased infant mortality due to decreased infectious diseases, better hygiene and sanitation leading to less infectious diseases, vaccinations, antibiotics?
Really interesting to know how it breaks down

This: At least I hope this helps to raise awareness on antibiotic resistance issue.

The higher baselines may be due to poor hygiene, sanitation, home heating, nutrition.....my layman opinion is that a malnourished person will die easier from cholera that a healthier and stronger one. If so, spikes in mortality due to epidemics need to be adjusted to the standard of living. We will never know what the impact of the covid19 would have been to year 1900 NYC, but we can observe a natural experiment such as Peru.
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  #11962  
Old 26.08.2020, 13:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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Just the 35,000-100,000 extra cancer deaths now estimated in the UK alone as a result of the Covid lockdown. Far more than who have actually died from Covid
With or without lockdown, cancer screening and treatments would have been affected in exactly the same way. It's not the lockdown that is the cause. It's covid and it's threat to patients.

Cancer specialists are crying out for specialist treatment centres which are covid free, meaning no covid patients are allowed on the premises, and all patients and staff are methodically and regularly tested. This is an inconvenience because it would mean any screening would involve travelling over 20 miles for huge proportion of patients.

Many cancer treatments were suspended because they supress the immunity of patients to such a level that they would have become immensely susceptible to covid. It's a fine balancing act, but one which has been brought about by covid and NOT lockdown. I personally know people whose treatment continued uninterrupted throughout lockdown because their particular cocktail of medications doesn't reduce immunity to an unaccepteble level.

Now please stop with the scaremongering around lockdown. Covid is the threat. Lockdown is just one tool at our disposal to avert that threat.
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  #11963  
Old 26.08.2020, 13:27
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Re: Coronavirus

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Now please stop with the scaremongering around lockdown. Covid is the threat. Lockdown is just one tool at our disposal to avert that threat.
Only for the vast majority of people it's not, as is now proven beyond any doubt. Cancer is a real threat, not seeing a doctor THANKS TO LOCKDOWN when you should is a real danger.
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Old 26.08.2020, 13:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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Only for the vast majority of people it's not, as is now proven beyond any doubt. Cancer is a real threat, not seeing a doctor THANKS TO LOCKDOWN when you should is a real danger.
Not seeing a doctor thanks to covid. You keep blaming the symptom, not the cause.

e.g. Nephew's fiancee is a GP in London. She worked throughout lockdown doing her usual morning surgery but not the afternoon one, then switching over to diagnosing and referring covid patients to hospital, but only over the phone because she couldn't risk exposing herself and her patients at the practice where she works. Every time a covid patient walked into the surgery (which happened a few times) she had to self isolate at one of the many London hotels which were offering isolation rooms. https://www.nhshomes.co.uk/

You repeatedly refuse to see and acknowledge that the virus meant staff numbers at all medical facilities were heavily depleted because of the virus and NOT because of lockdown. You can't magic medical staff out of thin air when they're having to self-isolate for their own safety and that of their colleagues and loved ones, lockdown or no lockdown.
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  #11965  
Old 26.08.2020, 13:57
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Re: Coronavirus

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Only for the vast majority of people it's not, as is now proven beyond any doubt.
Please feel free to post links to all the peer reviewed research which supports this claim beyond any shadow of a doubt.
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  #11966  
Old 26.08.2020, 14:03
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Re: Coronavirus

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Estimated at a worst case 35,000. Note worst case.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53300784
Isn't it around this point that our COVID deniers usually chime in with "they were old/they had cancer/they were economically unproductive, they were going to die anyway"?
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  #11967  
Old 26.08.2020, 15:07
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Re: Coronavirus

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Isn't it around this point that our COVID deniers usually chime in with "they were old/they had cancer/they were economically unproductive, they were going to die anyway"?
/Think of the money the NHS saved in not having to pay for long, drawn out, expensive treatments for them...etc
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  #11968  
Old 26.08.2020, 20:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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/Think of the money the NHS saved in not having to pay for long, drawn out, expensive treatments for them...etc
Actually this could just be a new approach to refloat the AHV.
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  #11969  
Old 26.08.2020, 21:03
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yes. The world has sacrificed billions because of C-19 but has it made the same investment to combat cancer? Which is the bigger annual killer?
Cancer is an umbrella term for vastly different conditions. The equivalent might be all infections, including but not limited to virus and bacteria.
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Old 27.08.2020, 11:08
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Re: Coronavirus

Top UK Govt Scientist: ‘Lockdown A Monumental Mistake’

LOCKDOWN will come to be seen as a “monumental mistake on a global scale” and must never happen again, a scientist who advises the Government on infectious diseases says.

Mark Woolhouse said lockdown was a “panic measure” but admitted it was the only option at the time because “we couldn’t think of anything better to do”.

https://www.express.co.uk/life-style...-Boris-Johnson
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  #11971  
Old 27.08.2020, 12:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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Top UK Govt Scientist: ‘Lockdown A Monumental Mistake’

LOCKDOWN will come to be seen as a “monumental mistake on a global scale” and must never happen again, a scientist who advises the Government on infectious diseases says.

Mark Woolhouse said lockdown was a “panic measure” but admitted it was the only option at the time because “we couldn’t think of anything better to do”.

https://www.express.co.uk/life-style...-Boris-Johnson
That argument is about as neat and tidy as Boris' hair. 20/20 hindsight out of context nonsense. "Couldn't think of anything better to do". Everything was thought of. None of it was better. Still isn't. Without better preparation, lockdown was the only option. So now this bullshit will be used to avoid any further preparation that could avoid the same situation, and we'll be right back to panic measures next time.
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  #11972  
Old 27.08.2020, 13:11
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Re: Coronavirus

I built a GIF with the regional cumulative incidence map from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, starting weeks 26-27 (22 June-5 July) and ending weeks 33-34 (10-23 August).



Switzerland is not charted because it's not a member of the EEA.
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  #11973  
Old 27.08.2020, 14:32
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Re: Coronavirus

Great work. That chart looks interesting... does not bode well for what happens next.


Regards






Ian



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I built a GIF with the regional cumulative incidence map from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, starting weeks 26-27 (22 June-5 July) and ending weeks 33-34 (10-23 August).



Switzerland is not charted because it's not a member of the EEA.
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  #11974  
Old 27.08.2020, 14:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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That argument is about as neat and tidy as Boris' hair. 20/20 hindsight out of context nonsense. "Couldn't think of anything better to do". Everything was thought of. None of it was better. Still isn't. Without better preparation, lockdown was the only option. So now this bullshit will be used to avoid any further preparation that could avoid the same situation, and we'll be right back to panic measures next time.

You're wrong.
First of all, you could look at how some Asian countries successfully managed a pandemic with no lockdown.
Second, plenty of preparation on EU level: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/seasonal-influenza/preparedness/influenza-pandemic-preparedness-plans
Interestingly, the country with the most recent updated document is Switzerland, in 2018.
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  #11975  
Old 27.08.2020, 15:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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You're wrong.
First of all, you could look at how some Asian countries successfully managed a pandemic with no lockdown.
Second, plenty of preparation on EU level: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/seasonal-influenza/preparedness/influenza-pandemic-preparedness-plans
Interestingly, the country with the most recent updated document is Switzerland, in 2018.
Oh, I'm wrong am I? Then why does this guy you quoted say they couldn't think of anything better to do? They were soooooo prepared that they could only think to do a major lockdown that other countries didn't need to do because they were also prepared? Amazing logic you've got there!
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  #11976  
Old 27.08.2020, 15:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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Oh, I'm wrong am I? Then why does this guy you quoted say they couldn't think of anything better to do? They were soooooo prepared that they could only think to do a major lockdown that other countries didn't need to do because they were also prepared? Amazing logic you've got there!

Because it was obviously not a good plan. Now you evaluate, learn, improve and do it better next time.
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  #11977  
Old 27.08.2020, 15:31
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Re: Coronavirus

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Because it was obviously not a good plan. Now you evaluate, learn, improve and do it better next time.
Which is exactly what they won't do. I'm not wrong. The whole "it was a mistake" but "we couldn't think of anything better" will repeat itself with more panic measures. "We absolutely should never return to a position where children cannot play or go to school." I MEAN COME ON. You've still got people saying masks don't help and they refuse to wear them.
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  #11978  
Old 27.08.2020, 16:49
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Re: Coronavirus

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Great work. That chart looks interesting... does not bode well for what happens next.
Especially for Spain, which sadly has had a huge flare-up.
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Old 27.08.2020, 17:36
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Re: Coronavirus

WHO Europe has put up a "Subnational Explorer":

https://experience.arcgis.com/experi...f59949e9984a71

Source: Le matin
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Old 27.08.2020, 18:04
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Re: Coronavirus

Awesome visualization! Now we need some popcorn, soon people will start to point fingers
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