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Old 06.09.2020, 13:56
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Re: Coronavirus

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Frightening stuff in The Standard. Imagine being a professor of theoretical epidemiology at The University of Oxford and struggling to get scientific papers published this Covid pandemic is starting to have a whiff of the climate change debate about it.

I’ve also highlighted something in bold which should be of interest to our friend robogobo.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/lond...-a4538386.html
Well according to the article the peer reviewers "labelled [the papers] as saying things that are dangerous" so not surprising it is a struggle.
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Old 06.09.2020, 14:11
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Re: Coronavirus

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Frightening stuff in The Standard. Imagine being a professor of theoretical epidemiology at The University of Oxford and struggling to get scientific papers published
Indeed! That is unheard of! I couldn't even imagine a senior lecturer and honorary consultant in experimental gastroenterology at the Royal Free Hospital School of Medicine having problems getting his work published... now. Damn those peer reviewers for their scrupulous checking!
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Old 06.09.2020, 15:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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For as long as masks continue to be worn. It's not like they work one day then not the next you know.
Really? You think once we get to the end of the year/2021, people will still be buying and wearing clean masks each time, wearing them properly, etc... It's not like they're doing any of that now anyway. So, yes, they will be less effective. And cases rising implies that masks are not all that effective and they're being imposed in places on the sole assumption that they can sometimes get 'crowded' or they're indoors, not taking into account the density of people there.
Where I live, I've noticed people are avoiding shops and public transport now, so they are gathering elsewhere or using other means of transport (it makes more sense for a full family to wear masks in a small car for example)


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I find it difficult to have an intelligent conversation with you, because you are simultaneously acknowledging (in your comment above) that masks and hand sanitizer can help reduce the risk of infection AND saying that they are not necessary or shouldn't be considered necessary to try to help reduce the number of new infections. So you're basically saying that yes, masks can help but screw it... Let's just all get the virus and who cares if we do since most would not require hospitalization. And who cares about those who do become extremely ill from it.

Mandatory masks help allow the economy to be kept open while also trying to help minimize the spread of infections. But you seem to be basically implying that we should do nothing and should just let the virus run its course, without any measures of protection, regardless of the consequences?

And yes, while few are hospitalized, as you said, that doesn't mean that the virus can't negatively affect people who do not require hospitalization. I've posted links here before about how young people have been having strokes from blood clots due to the virus. Not to mention the long-term lung damage that the virus can cause. Simply having low vitamin-D compromises your immune system and can make you more susceptible. One of the past members of the EF had the virus, along with his wife, and neither required hospitalization at the time, but now neither of them can breathe properly when they go for their evening walks whereas before, that was never a problem.

But you seem to think of this virus as being something that people shouldn't care if they get and shouldn't be willing to do something as simple as wearing a mask in the damn grocery store to try to help prevent its spread. Personally, if I have to wear a mask in the grocery store to help just ONE person not have to slowly suffocate to death in a hospital bed or struggle for air when they go for a walk after catching the virus, it's worth it.
My point is that masks/sanitizers may help for now - you know the next week, the next two months or so, you might avoid an infection, but what about the longer term? Winter/spring? So you didn't catch this thing in September, but what about February? You would really have to have been extremely diligent about your own mask usage/purchase but mostly make sure most people around you (especially in your household if you live with people) did the same and are all negative.


I'm not against masks at all in TRULY crowded spaces where there is a great deal of time spent in close proximity to others, worn sensibly. Or when you're having a one-on-one with someone. I'm against the mindset of focusing on gadgets like masks and hand sanitizers and thinking the coronavirus (not covid-19) is the biggest health threat to humanity to the exclusion of everything else (deaths from other diseases, increasing suicidal thoughts among young people, relapses, unemployment, any talk whatsoever about genuine self-care like exercise or diet)
I wear a mask in the grocery store because I don't have a choice. But I'm not naive enough to think that this is what's protecting the people around me who are always at a greater distance than 1.5m (or sometimes 8) or simply passing by. And even if they weren't (say at the barber), and I am wearing one, the only thing it means is that I am not transmitting the virus I'm not sure to have to that specific person through the means of whatever the mask is supposed to protect. And that's the only thing that should intellectually matter - you are not responsible of transmitting the virus to that person who could catch it in myriad different ways getting out of that workplace and going about their day spending lengthier time with people with no masks on (at a restaurant, at home, etc). Same goes for you. That's why the effect of masks on general case numbers or the likelihood of you catching the coronavirus is so irrelevant in the long term.

Yes, having everyone wear masks properly in a shop/supermarket reduces chances of transmission (which were already low considering how large some of them are)... but when you think about that order delivery you're going to get two weeks after from a mailman with no mask on who is much closer to you, or that family Christmas dinner you're most likely going to have in 3 months, you start to see how futile it is to focus on mundane, everyday interactions with the general public regarding masks. We still have months to go with this. You're basically expecting everyone to be wearing a mask at all times around you, for the next 7-12 months.


Again, the best way to make sure your chances of infection are as low as possible is to live as a recluse or a loner... which is not feasible or healthy. But keeping physical distance at all times is doable and more efficient than masks.
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  #12284  
Old 06.09.2020, 15:07
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Re: Coronavirus

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The CDC states that only 9200 people in the US have died directly from COVID, i.e. without any serious underlying health problems.

9200 deaths FROM Covid in the US, yet 64'000 die each year just from regular flu.

Thats your "pandemic", now continue to crash your economies, take people's freedoms, and give your governments more power and control.
You need to look more deeply into the CDC statement, they wrote “For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned."
They did not write the other causes listed on death certificates were always serious underlying health problems.

People are seriously ill with COVID-19 and so eventually some part of their body fatally fails, that is listed in their death certificate.
“So, let’s say someone was admitted to the hospital because of symptoms of COVID. They test positive, so COVID would be listed,”
Their case progressed where they developed respiratory failure and now are on a ventilator. Respiratory failure would also be listed.”
Or, they died from heart failure so that would also be listed.

The 6% figure was published by the NCHS, part of the CDC
Jeff Lancashire, acting associate director for communications at the NCHS, later wrote in an email;

“The underlying cause of death is the condition that began the chain of events that ultimately led to the person’s death,” he said. “In 92% of all deaths that mention COVID-19, COVID-19 is listed as the underlying cause of death.”
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Old 06.09.2020, 16:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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You would really have to have been extremely diligent about your own mask usage/purchase but mostly make sure most people around you (especially in your household if you live with people) did the same and are all negative.
It just goes on the regular shopping list alongside onions, tomatoes, cheese, etc... No biggie.

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You're basically expecting everyone to be wearing a mask at all times around you, for the next 7-12 months.
I expect everyone (except my partner) to wear clothing around me at all times, particularly over the winter months. Again...No biggie.
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Old 06.09.2020, 17:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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Really? You think once we get to the end of the year/2021, people will still be buying and wearing clean masks each time, wearing them properly, etc... It's not like they're doing any of that now anyway. So, yes, they will be less effective. And cases rising implies that masks are not all that effective and they're being imposed in places on the sole assumption that they can sometimes get 'crowded' or they're indoors, not taking into account the density of people there.
Where I live, I've noticed people are avoiding shops and public transport now, so they are gathering elsewhere or using other means of transport (it makes more sense for a full family to wear masks in a small car for example)




My point is that masks/sanitizers may help for now - you know the next week, the next two months or so, you might avoid an infection, but what about the longer term? Winter/spring? So you didn't catch this thing in September, but what about February? You would really have to have been extremely diligent about your own mask usage/purchase but mostly make sure most people around you (especially in your household if you live with people) did the same and are all negative.


I'm not against masks at all in TRULY crowded spaces where there is a great deal of time spent in close proximity to others, worn sensibly. Or when you're having a one-on-one with someone. I'm against the mindset of focusing on gadgets like masks and hand sanitizers and thinking the coronavirus (not covid-19) is the biggest health threat to humanity to the exclusion of everything else (deaths from other diseases, increasing suicidal thoughts among young people, relapses, unemployment, any talk whatsoever about genuine self-care like exercise or diet)
I wear a mask in the grocery store because I don't have a choice. But I'm not naive enough to think that this is what's protecting the people around me who are always at a greater distance than 1.5m (or sometimes 8) or simply passing by. And even if they weren't (say at the barber), and I am wearing one, the only thing it means is that I am not transmitting the virus I'm not sure to have to that specific person through the means of whatever the mask is supposed to protect. And that's the only thing that should intellectually matter - you are not responsible of transmitting the virus to that person who could catch it in myriad different ways getting out of that workplace and going about their day spending lengthier time with people with no masks on (at a restaurant, at home, etc). Same goes for you. That's why the effect of masks on general case numbers or the likelihood of you catching the coronavirus is so irrelevant in the long term.

Yes, having everyone wear masks properly in a shop/supermarket reduces chances of transmission (which were already low considering how large some of them are)... but when you think about that order delivery you're going to get two weeks after from a mailman with no mask on who is much closer to you, or that family Christmas dinner you're most likely going to have in 3 months, you start to see how futile it is to focus on mundane, everyday interactions with the general public regarding masks. We still have months to go with this. You're basically expecting everyone to be wearing a mask at all times around you, for the next 7-12 months.


Again, the best way to make sure your chances of infection are as low as possible is to live as a recluse or a loner... which is not feasible or healthy. But keeping physical distance at all times is doable and more efficient than masks.
As I had said before... You could really use some work on your basic logic and critical thinking skills. It's not mutually exclusive. You can wear a mask and social distance. And masks help especially when social distancing is difficult (e.g. on public transport, paying the cashier, etc.).

Also... You are also simultaneously claiming that keeping the economy open is more important than a lockdown and yet are also saying that people shouldn't be wearing masks (or shouldn't have to wear them) in order to try to help keep the economy open. It. Doesn't. Make. Sense.

You also wrote "You think once we get to the end of the year/2021, people will still be buying and wearing clean masks each time, wearing them properly, etc... It's not like they're doing any of that now anyway."

I'm not sure what part of CH you're in, but I'm in the canton of Zurich, and everyone just started wearing masks in the stores here about a week and a half ago because they are now mandatory. I don't know what kind of prophet you think you are to say that people will not be buying and wearing masks at the end of the year. From what I'm seeing now, here at least, most people are wearing them and not bitching about it. You're also apparently failing to recognize the fact that scientists are currently desperately trying to develop a successful vaccine. Until we have one, we have to try to keep the spread of the virus under some degree of control (as much as possible) especially if we do want to keep the economy open.

Listen, if you don't want to wear a mask, then stay home and order all of your groceries online, etc., since you've already implied that that's something so easily done. I don't think most of us would complain if you stay home. I certainly wouldn't. But for others like myself, I'll put on a mask and not bitch about it like an entitled toddler in order to try to help keep the economy open and not potentially play a role in spreading this virus.
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  #12287  
Old 06.09.2020, 17:52
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Re: Coronavirus

@sftb
"But keeping physical distance at all times is doable and more efficient than masks."

Keeping physical distance at all times is not actually doable unless you carry a big stick to fight off the stupid people who crowd around you.
I have started walking my dog with a longer leash but even that does not always help to fend off people.

Probably there will be a pendulum effect on mask wearing. People will get more lax, then cases will start shooting up again and so sensible people will get more careful.

I guess you do not get much mail if you believe the mailman hands it over to you. I get letters and parcels most days and I have not seen a postman for months.
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Old 06.09.2020, 18:07
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Re: Coronavirus

Err, you're confusing me with another poster... V____, I think.

People in Geneva are holding masks on their chins, keeping them over their elbows, not covering their noses, etc... rendering them at least partially hazardous.

You could really do without the ad hominems too, btw. Claiming you're better off with someone else staying at home (i'm assuming V____) says more about you than them.
You shouldn't expect people to live differently (in your case, it seems, wear masks everywhere) just so you can feel more safe when you go out. People are allowed to live their lives as they want and if that means not wearing masks when they're not mandatory, they can do just that.

I never even said anywhere that I don't follow the mask rule... I have no idea what you're on about. Wearing one doesn't mean you believe they're helpful. It's just following some arbitrary law. Again, you're confusing me with someone else. Maybe the mask is fogging up your glasses?
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Old 06.09.2020, 18:42
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Re: Coronavirus

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From what I'm seeing now, here at least, most people are wearing them and not bitching about it.
I wouldn't be so sure about bitching.
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Old 06.09.2020, 19:43
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Re: Coronavirus

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Have you published anything in scientific journals? There are an awful lot of criteria to be fulfilled before anything is published.
There is a lot more to this story than has been published in the Standard I’m sure.
What an odd thing to ask, I mean really odd. I could tell you that I have published a scientific paper, or that I have not, there's no way in which you could ever know for sure. It's certainly not in any way relevant to what I wrote and given 200,000 academic journals are published in English each year with an average reader per article of only five people, and given that the average number of readers of any given published scientific paper is 0.6, it doesn't much matter either!!!

What does matter is that Professor Gupta will have had MANY papers published (she wouldn't be in the position she holds had she not) and so I'm more than sure she is aware and has more than fulfilled the "awful lot of criteria" necessary. She's certainly not a novice.

Basically, it's very easy to get something published, getting something published where it matters and will have impact in prestigious scientific journals is entirely different all together. Unfortunately, scientific journals also follow editorial bias like any other publication. This is a long known issue that was in place long before the Covid-19 pandemic.

The issue Professor Gupta faces is that her ideas fly in the face of the narrative that's been built with editors scared to publish “dangerous” ideas that could affect how the pandemic is viewed. Limiting publication of such findings to smaller and lesser known (and read) journals, is an effective way of burying the findings.

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Perhaps you should also look at the peer reviewed and published papers of Professors whose opinions don't fit your narrative.
Quid pro quo.
You don't seem to get how this works, do you? Her work isn't able to be compared to the peer reviewed and published of other academics because it is NOT GETTING PUBLISHED! This is the whole foundation of how science works, one side brings their theories, arguments and findings, the other side brings theirs and they have it out until one is proven to be correct. Just simply ignoring one sides findings is just undermining scientific debate, which is why it's frightening!

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Indeed! That is unheard of! I couldn't even imagine a senior lecturer and honorary consultant in experimental gastroenterology at the Royal Free Hospital School of Medicine having problems getting his work published... now. Damn those peer reviewers for their scrupulous checking!
And how was Andrew Wakefield proven wrong? Because his work was out there in the public domain to be systematically taken apart by other doctors!! This is why it's so wrong that Professor Gupta's work isn't getting published, if she is wrong then the process of scientific method will find out!
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Old 06.09.2020, 20:22
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Re: Coronavirus

I just spent the whole day at a thermal bath in Valais.

Full of people, not a single mask in sight.

To be honest, it felt good. It felt normal.

Much, much better than to carry the mask in you pocket, chin, underwear and put it on your mouth and nose so some people can feel safe.
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Old 06.09.2020, 20:23
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Re: Coronavirus

@TonyClifton

The problem Professor Gupta had is in passing the peer reviews not that she was rejected by the editors.

She is a professor of Theoretical Epidomology in the Oxfod University Department of Zoology.

You misunderstand the scientific method, you claim it is about scientific debate (whatever that is) when, in fact, it is about scientific data.

So far, the scientific data do not support Gupta’s best-case scenario. Blood tests performed by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) on nearly 1,000 people in England suggest that less than 10% of the population has been exposed to the virus.

Consequently her papers do not pass the peer reviews because the data fails.

In May when asked what her updated estimate for the UK Infection Fatality Rate is, Professor Gupta says, “I think that the epidemic has largely come and is on its way out in this country so I think it would be definitely less than 1 in 1000 and probably closer to 1 in 10,000.” That would be somewhere between 0.1% and 0.01%.
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Old 06.09.2020, 20:33
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Re: Coronavirus

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I just spent the whole day at a thermal bath in Valais.

Full of people, not a single mask in sight.

To be honest, it felt good. It felt normal.

Much, much better than to carry the mask in you pocket, chin, underwear and put it on your mouth and nose so some people can feel safe.
I hate to break this to you, but the fact that no one was wearing a mask in a thermal bath doesn't mean that no one there is infected with the virus. I also didn't see anyone wearing masks while swimming at pools or in the lake here all summer, but that's probably because 1. They're not required. And 2. It's a bit difficult to wear a mask while swimming.
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Old 06.09.2020, 20:38
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Re: Coronavirus

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I hate to break this to you, but the fact that no one was wearing a mask in a thermal bath doesn't mean that no one there is infected with the virus. I also didn't see anyone wearing masks while swimming at pools or in the lake here all summer, but that's probably because 1. They're not required. And 2. It's a bit difficult to wear a mask while swimming.
That isn't the point, it basically means that most people don't care anymore, people want to move on with their lives and go back to living normally.
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Old 06.09.2020, 20:43
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Re: Coronavirus

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What an odd thing to ask, I mean really odd. I could tell you that I have published a scientific paper, or that I have not, there's no way in which you could ever know for sure. It's certainly not in any way relevant to what I wrote and given 200,000 academic journals are published in English each year with an average reader per article of only five people, and given that the average number of readers of any given published scientific paper is 0.6, it doesn't much matter either!!!

What does matter is that Professor Gupta will have had MANY papers published (she wouldn't be in the position she holds had she not) and so I'm more than sure she is aware and has more than fulfilled the "awful lot of criteria" necessary. She's certainly not a novice.

Basically, it's very easy to get something published, getting something published where it matters and will have impact in prestigious scientific journals is entirely different all together. Unfortunately, scientific journals also follow editorial bias like any other publication. This is a long known issue that was in place long before the Covid-19 pandemic.

The issue Professor Gupta faces is that her ideas fly in the face of the narrative that's been built with editors scared to publish “dangerous” ideas that could affect how the pandemic is viewed. Limiting publication of such findings to smaller and lesser known (and read) journals, is an effective way of burying the findings.



You don't seem to get how this works, do you? Her work isn't able to be compared to the peer reviewed and published of other academics because it is NOT GETTING PUBLISHED! This is the whole foundation of how science works, one side brings their theories, arguments and findings, the other side brings theirs and they have it out until one is proven to be correct. Just simply ignoring one sides findings is just undermining scientific debate, which is why it's frightening!
Thanks, I have my answer. You have no clue how it works in reality.

If her work was worthy of it she would be able to publish it somewhere, the mere fact that no journal will publish it must tell you something.
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Old 06.09.2020, 20:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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And how was Andrew Wakefield proven wrong? Because his work was out there in the public domain to be systematically taken apart by other doctors!! This is why it's so wrong that Professor Gupta's work isn't getting published, if she is wrong then the process of scientific method will find out!
Wakefield managed to get his paper past peer review through fraudulent means. He was then caught out after The Lancet published it. The peer review is supposed to "systematically take papers apart", if warranted, but he committed fraud.

Gupta's data doesn't pass peer review, let alone her findings. Perhaps she should resort to fraud and cheatery to get this particular paper published.

I don't think you have much understanding of the scientific method of which you speak. The process is decidedly not to throw ideas and concepts into the public eye, published in reputable journals, and see whether anyone out there picks up any flaws. Probably best to leave science to the scientists -- something that Donnie Trump also needs to learn.
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Old 06.09.2020, 20:46
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Re: Coronavirus

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That isn't the point, it basically means that most people don't care anymore, people want to move on with their lives and go back to living normally.
No, it all it means that the people who go to these places feel like that.
That does not equate to most people.

It may well be that most people do feel like that but you can’t draw that conclusion based on your observations.
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Old 06.09.2020, 20:50
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Re: Coronavirus

I was in thermal bath in Valais in summer. The number of people was strictly limited, which caused us to wait about 45 Min outside on Saturday afternoon before certain number of people leaves and we are allowed to enter, and they closed the entrance few hours before the end of their working hours. Also you are allowed to stay in the baths for max 3 hours. The steam bath was closed. It was definitely not normal. Maybe it looks normal outside of school holidays when it's less crowded.
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Old 06.09.2020, 20:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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No, it all it means that the people who go to these places feel like that.
That does not equate to most people.

It may well be that most people do feel like that but you can’t draw that conclusion based on your observations.
There was a 40 minutes traffic jam on the highway going from Valais to Vaud tonight... which is happening year long on Sunday night by people going to the mountains and coming back to the cities for Monday.

Judging by the amount of cars I saw today traffic felt like ski season on a school holiday week.
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Old 06.09.2020, 21:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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You don't seem to get how this works, do you? Her work isn't able to be compared to the peer reviewed and published of other academics because it is NOT GETTING PUBLISHED! This is the whole foundation of how science works, one side brings their theories, arguments and findings, the other side brings theirs and they have it out until one is proven to be correct. Just simply ignoring one sides findings is just undermining scientific debate, which is why it's frightening!
Tony's frightened again! He's hit the 'caps lock'
Can someone please fetch the smelling salts?

So...
A professor of theoretical epidemiology from the Department of Zoology at the University of Oxford is having a hissy over her papers not being published and you're frightened?

The paper which was published in June 2019 which she co-authored, is entitled...

'Increased frequency of travel in the presence of cross-immunity may act to decrease the chance of a global pandemic.'
Thompson, RN, Thompson, CP, Pelerman, O, Gupta, S, Obolski, U



As for not understanding the process, do you really want me to refer you to the published scientific articles written by a family member of mine and how his work is still used as reference material 95yrs later? If you have a passing interest in 'Dosage with Ultra-Violet Radiation' or 'Spiral Springs of Quartz', I'd be happy to oblige
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