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Old 09.09.2020, 18:00
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Re: Coronavirus

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'Projection refers to unconsciously taking unwanted emotions or traits you don't like about yourself and attributing them to someone else. A common example is a cheating spouse who suspects their partner is being unfaithful.' https://www.healthline.com/health/projection-psychology

It's a very common defence mechanism and in this instance, is recognisable by the alarmist language a few people have used regarding this subject. At no point during this, have I felt fearful, but I've definitely felt concerned, cautious, wary and protective, which manifested into being pro-active regarding the possibility of an extended second lockdown. I've grown veg for years, but not on the scale I have this year. I bought a second freezer because we only had a little 2 drawer freezer section before. When tinned tomatoes were on rabatt, I stocked up because we use them almost daily, etc...

Within my frame of reference, fearful was how my partner's cousin felt when she was admitted into ICU in the same hospital where her brother had died of covid 2 weeks earlier. That's entirely justified and understandable under those circumstances, but as long as I have an element of control over my surroundings, I'm never fearful.
So I haven't been "projecting" then
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  #12482  
Old 09.09.2020, 18:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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That's not empirical evidence though, is it? It's a newspaper article. There may be something to it, in fact there probably is something to it, however it still needs to be observed and measured in the correct manner.

Articles like this only stir up fear. You hardly ever read "bloke catches Covid, has mild symptoms and is back to work within 10 days", which the vast majority who catch it are. It all comes back to selling papers, stirring fear and peoples inherent inability to be able to judge risk.
Reading something in a newspaper is empirical evidence

Try looking up the term.
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  #12483  
Old 09.09.2020, 18:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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That's not empirical evidence though, is it? It's a newspaper article. There may be something to it, in fact there probably is something to it, however it still needs to be observed and measured in the correct manner.

Articles like this only stir up fear. You hardly ever read "bloke catches Covid, has mild symptoms and is back to work within 10 days", which the vast majority who catch it are. It all comes back to selling papers, stirring fear and peoples inherent inability to be able to judge risk.
Even if I were to catch the virus and be back to work in 10 days, I still don't want it, and for various reasons. For one thing, I don't want to inadvertently give it to anyone else -- particularly not my elderly mother-in-law or any of my kid's friends who could then pass it on at school. This isn't simply about how the virus would affect you as an individual. If you get the virus, you are basically a lethal weapon -- or very well could be.

We've already seen what can happen, in the US, when too many people don't give a shit about catching the virus or passing it on to others. Personally, I'd rather not have a situation like that here.

If a doctor is advising you to social distance or wear a mask, are they just "stirring up fear?"
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  #12484  
Old 09.09.2020, 18:20
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Re: Coronavirus

[QUOTE=robogobo;3215732]

Mock the ultra easy math if you want, but really nothing more is necessary to prove my point. The fact is, we have several orders of magnitude more likelihood of spreading because there are several orders of magnitude more cases than we started with in the spring. It's just a simple fact, simply illustrated and impossible to refute, ...........



Simple maths can be just plain too simple.
You cannot jump into the same river twice.
It is not the spring, it is autumn.
If you look at the numbers, we are not now seeing the exponential rise in case numbers that we saw in spring, the reasons for this are numerous and have been discussed by others. The slower rate of increase in case numbers does not suggest that the virus is going away but rather that the "lockdown" measures have had a hugely beneficial effect in slowing the spread of the virus.
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Old 09.09.2020, 18:22
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Re: Coronavirus

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The Patriarch Filaret of Ukraine's Russian Orthodox church, who previously blamed the COVID-19 pandemic on gay marriage, is himself in treatment for the virus according to statements from the church.
Source

Meanwhile, Trump is running around various states encouraging large groups to attend, not encouraging mask-wearing, and ignoring the state governors requesting him not to create virus hot spots.
Biden is also visiting states but sticking by the rules.
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Old 09.09.2020, 18:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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That's not empirical evidence though, is it? It's a newspaper article. There may be something to it, in fact there probably is something to it, however it still needs to be observed and measured in the correct manner.

Articles like this only stir up fear. You hardly ever read "bloke catches Covid, has mild symptoms and is back to work within 10 days", which the vast majority who catch it are. It all comes back to selling papers, stirring fear and peoples inherent inability to be able to judge risk.
It is a newspaper article that reports on an ongoing medical study of 700+ Covid patients in/after recovery. I would think it is likely that these findings will also make it into the empirical evidence of study they are eventually going to publish.

If that stirs up fear, maybe there is something to be feared.
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Old 09.09.2020, 18:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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<snip>
Let me break that down for my COVID denier friends above
<snip>
Your expression "COVID denier" is totally inaccurate and disingenuous.

Holocaust deniers, state that it simply did not take place and 6 million Jews were not murdered - plus a further 2 million non Jews.

No one here is stating that the Covid pandemic is not taking place. The opinion that some hold is that the way governments have reacted is out of proportion to the dangers the virus holds for the vast majority of populations...
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  #12488  
Old 09.09.2020, 18:46
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Re: Coronavirus

This is a pretty good article (dated July 31st) about the long-term effects that some people have been experiencing from COVID-19:

From ‘brain fog’ to heart damage, COVID-19’s lingering problems alarm scientists
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...rm-scientists#

Excerpts:

"The list of lingering maladies from COVID-19 is longer and more varied than most doctors could have imagined. Ongoing problems include fatigue, a racing heartbeat, shortness of breath, achy joints, foggy thinking, a persistent loss of sense of smell, and damage to the heart, lungs, kidneys, and brain."...

"with the crisis just months old, no one knows how far into the future symptoms will endure, and whether COVID-19 will prompt the onset of chronic diseases."

"Athena Akrami’s neuroscience lab reopened last month without her. Life for the 38-year-old is a pale shadow of what it was before 17 March, the day she first experienced symptoms of the novel coronavirus. At University College London (UCL), Akrami’s students probe how the brain organizes memories to support learning, but at home, she struggles to think clearly and battles joint and muscle pain. “I used to go to the gym three times a week,” Akrami says. Now, “My physical activity is bed to couch, maybe couch to kitchen.”

Her early symptoms were textbook for COVID-19: a fever and cough, followed by shortness of breath, chest pain, and extreme fatigue. For weeks, she struggled to heal at home. But rather than ebb with time, Akrami’s symptoms waxed and waned without ever going away. She’s had just 3 weeks since March when her body temperature was normal.

“Everybody talks about a binary situation, you either get it mild and recover quickly, or you get really sick and wind up in the ICU,” says Akrami, who falls into neither category. Thousands echo her story in online COVID-19 support groups. Outpatient clinics for survivors are springing up, and some are already overburdened. Akrami has been waiting more than 4 weeks to be seen at one of them, despite a referral from her general practitioner."
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Old 09.09.2020, 19:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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That's not empirical evidence though, is it?
Well, yes, Tony, it is. Empirical evidence is evidence that is observed and documented. That's exactly what was reported in the news article: doctors observed hundreds of patients and documented their findings.

Or are you saying now (without any grounds) that this was FAKE NEWS!!!?

Seriously, could you leave science to the scientists?
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Old 09.09.2020, 19:13
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Re: Coronavirus

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This is a pretty good article (dated July 31st) about the long-term effects that some people have been experiencing from COVID-19:

From ‘brain fog’ to heart damage, COVID-19’s lingering problems alarm scientists
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...rm-scientists#
I’m pretty sure I shared something similar when it was published, but people just seemed to think it was alarmist.
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Old 09.09.2020, 19:40
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Re: Coronavirus

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Professor Gupta speaking a lot of sense on Channel 4 News yesterday. Protect the vulnerable, ease restrictions, aim for herd immunity.

https://www.channel4.com/news/we-sho...-sunetra-gupta
I think that's an appallingly ill-thought-out interview (on the part of both the interviewer and Prof. Gupta). Gupta is not a medical practitioner. She is not a health professional. She is a biologist who holds a chair in theoretical epidemiology. It looks to me like she has a personal agenda which just doesn't seem to be supported by science. She states that the lockdown should have been eased even as evidence of a substantial uptick of new cases is all around her, and although she mentions morbidities, doesn't seem to take their possible seriousness into account when advocating herd immunity. I was far from convinced by her.

When will people work out that mortality is not the be-all and end-all?

The Channel 4 anchor didn't really interview her, either, rather just enabled her to follow the anti-lockdown script. Very poor journalism. I hope they also covered the opposing view.

Last edited by 22 yards; 09.09.2020 at 23:31. Reason: A spot of punctuation was required.
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Old 09.09.2020, 20:16
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Re: Coronavirus

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I think that's an appallingly ill-thought-out interview (on the part of both the interviewer and Prof. Gupta). Gupta is not a medical practitioner. She is not a health professional. She is a biologist who holds a chair in theoretical epidemiology. It looks to me like she has a personal agenda which just doesn't seem to be supported by science. She states that the lockdown should have been eased even as evidence of a substantial uptick of new cases is all around her, and although she mentions morbidities, doesn't seem to take their possible seriousness into account when advocating herd immunity I was far from convinced by her.

When will people work out that mortality is not the be-all and end-all?

The Channel 4 anchor didn't really interview her, either, rather just enabled her to follow the anti-lockdown script. Very poor journalism. I hope they also covered the opposing view.
Wasn't the whole UK government approach governed by an academic model - and then the academic in question - Prof. Neil Ferguson, a professor of mathematical biology, essentially co-opted as a member of government before he was sacked for breaking his own policy?

I'm not sure that deciding upon appropriate lockdown measures is a job for a medical practitioner - it's not really in their skill set is it? It's a job for government having taken on board the advice of epidemologists.

That's not to say I agree with Prof. Gupta. To be honest I have no idea what the truth is. If the experts disagree so much, I think us mere mortals can't really be sure about anything. Can any of us say we have any idea about existing herd effects from other coronavirus - whether it's a pipe dream or reality. I've not even seen anything non anecdotal on "long Covid" so have no idea how much of a risk this poses. Is it 1 in 10, 1 in 100, 1 in 1000? That's important as at my age a bad long Covid is probably the thing I should be most worried about.

The only thing I do have significant confidence in with Covid is my belief that nobody really knows anything. With this in mind, I'm staying reasonably cautious until there's a vaccine.

Last edited by HickvonFrick; 09.09.2020 at 20:51.
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Old 09.09.2020, 20:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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Wasn't the whole UK government approach governed by an academic model - and then the academic in question - Prof. Neil Ferguson, a professor of mathematical biology, essentially co-opted as a member of government before he was sacked for breaking his own policy?

I'm not sure that deciding upon appropriate lockdown measures is a job for a medical practitioner - it's not really in their skill set is it?

That's not to say I agree with Prof. Gupta. To be honest I have no idea what the truth is, and I am pretty confident nobody else does either.
I’d imagine an infectious disease specialist working with someone who has good modeling skills - epidemiology, population. But the models will be fraught with error because no one knew anything at the outset.
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Old 09.09.2020, 20:23
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Re: Coronavirus

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Well, yes, Tony, it is. Empirical evidence is evidence that is observed and documented. That's exactly what was reported in the news article: doctors observed hundreds of patients and documented their findings.

Or are you saying now (without any grounds) that this was FAKE NEWS!!!?

Seriously, could you leave science to the scientists?
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It is a newspaper article that reports on an ongoing medical study of 700+ Covid patients in/after recovery. I would think it is likely that these findings will also make it into the empirical evidence of study they are eventually going to publish.

If that stirs up fear, maybe there is something to be feared.
I don't know whether to laugh of cry after the stick I was given for defending an actual paper that was searching for a publisher. Some of the very same people are now putting their faith in an ONGOING STUDY reported second hand in a newspaper!!!
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  #12495  
Old 09.09.2020, 20:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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I don't know whether to laugh of cry after the stick I was given for defending an actual paper that was searching for a publisher. Some of the very same people are now putting their faith in an ONGOING STUDY reported second hand in a newspaper!!!

Because the newspaper reports the actual observation, while the "actual paper" is purely on modelling, which, for some reasons, has not been accepted by the scientific peers. Btw, until the work from Prof. Gupta is approved by the scientific peers, it's not an actual paper.
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Old 09.09.2020, 20:33
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Re: Coronavirus

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Your expression "COVID denier" is totally inaccurate and disingenuous.

Holocaust deniers, state that it simply did not take place and 6 million Jews were not murdered - plus a further 2 million non Jews.

No one here is stating that the Covid pandemic is not taking place. The opinion that some hold is that the way governments have reacted is out of proportion to the dangers the virus holds for the vast majority of populations...
This is exactly the point, no one has said that Covid isn't a pandemic or that it is a conspiracy. The main argument is that although Covid is a nasty virus, the measures imposed have been was OTT considering the risks involved. That's all!

That's why its frustrating having all the 5G and Bill Gates nuts on the same side, they just dilute the argument. I don't believe there is any conspiracy or anything like that, we are where we are largely through sheer incompetence and unwarranted panic.

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Even if I were to catch the virus and be back to work in 10 days, I still don't want it, and for various reasons. For one thing, I don't want to inadvertently give it to anyone else -- particularly not my elderly mother-in-law or any of my kid's friends who could then pass it on at school. This isn't simply about how the virus would affect you as an individual. If you get the virus, you are basically a lethal weapon -- or very well could be.

We've already seen what can happen, in the US, when too many people don't give a shit about catching the virus or passing it on to others. Personally, I'd rather not have a situation like that here.

If a doctor is advising you to social distance or wear a mask, are they just "stirring up fear?"
No one is saying they want to catch the virus! In the same way one wouldn't want to catch a nasty bout of the flu (which can also leave one drained for months afterwards). We should try and avoid catching the virus, but we should be sensible about the impact avoidance has on our lives at the same time.
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Old 09.09.2020, 20:37
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Re: Coronavirus

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Wasn't the whole UK government approach governed by an academic model - and then the academic in question - Prof. Neil Ferguson, a professor of mathematical biology, essentially co-opted as a member of government before he was sacked for breaking his own policy?

I'm not sure that deciding upon appropriate lockdown measures is a job for a medical practitioner - it's not really in their skill set is it? It's a job for government having taken on board the advice of epidemologists.

That's not to say I agree with Prof. Gupta. To be honest I have no idea what the truth is. If the experts disagree so much, I think us mere mortals can't really be sure about anything.

The only thing I do have significant confidence in with Covid is my belief that nobody really knows anything. With this in mind, I'm staying reasonably cautious until there's a vaccine.
A vaccine that actually works.

Otherwise, dtto.
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Old 09.09.2020, 20:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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A vaccine that actually works.

Otherwise, dtto.
It'd be interesting to see how we all behave if we get a vaccine that's say 50% effective. A new new normal where we visit friends and family in their houses but refrain from embracing each other for a bit?

In my case, my grandmother is in her mid 80s. Either I don't visit her to avoid giving her Covid or I don't visit her and potentially she dies of something else having had a lonely year or two.
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Old 09.09.2020, 21:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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It'd be interesting to see how we all behave if we get a vaccine that's say 50% effective.
Or less, I read in Insider that in the 2020 the flu shots were 45% effective.

But then, what will have the most effect on data, the vaccinated people not mingling, or unvaccinated people not mingling, or vaccinated people mingling and vaccine working, or unvaccinated people mingling but the virus in retreat or gradually weakening as it mutates?

I also think about not putting my closest ones in more risk as they are probably in the riskiest group now in all sense, but despite them being doctors, they really wish to see their family.

Last edited by MusicChick; 09.09.2020 at 21:21.
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Old 09.09.2020, 21:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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I've said it back in this thread: I trusted the Swiss government a lot before this whole thing. I trust it now even more. The cool-headed approach and the balancing act they performed between known unknows and unknown unknowns was probably the best in the world. Let's not forget, that while across the border in France they could go out for an hour a day, we could still go jogging, walking around, go to Coop for another bottle of wine as soon as the 4th bottle was over in the early afternoon
Absolutely! I think the government did an outstanding job, considering the circumstances. The piss poor US response was blamed by some, in part, on the federalist system, but Switzerland is even more decentralized and managed to do a great job. Although I have heard many a Swiss grumble about the BAG, this Ausländer was pretty pleased.

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That's for me the most interesting question indeed. As usual, there's probably many factors at play, as you pointed out, but one that you didn't point out and I have it as my personal major hypothesis is that earlier there were many cases that went completely un-diagnosed due to limited testing. As we now test more, we see more cases, but it's not real growth, it's confirming what was happening already anyway. Hence, death rate is now with a larger denominator and the same numerator.
Interesting about the undiagnosed cases - I think there might be something there, but I'm not sure how this affects disease severity. Anyway, for this we really need to know the seroprevalence, and what the actual protective immune response post infection is, considering the recent reports on reinfections. Maybe the lack of a huge second wave in some heavily hit, densely populated areas (NYC, London) is because of this. I think the seroprevalence was somewhere around 20% for NYC, and there was a study suggesting that some immune response to other coronaviruses gave some protection to many people, so maybe the combined effect leads to this. But honestly, I have no idea.

Incidentally, I'm participating in a long term seroprevalence study at the university where I work here in Zurich, and the first round of tests (taken in April) yielded a seroprevalence of 4%, for what it's worth. I think seroprevalence studies in Geneva around the same time were a bit higher, around 11%.
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