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Old 10.09.2020, 14:46
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Re: Coronavirus

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Look, I'm not trying to downplay anything. Those are the statistics (for Switzerland), look them up if you don't believe me! The risk to under-65s is the same as it always has been since the start of the pandemic. If those numbers make you feel threatened then that's your business. I could just as well turn it back on you and say that you're over-playing the virus.
You're not trying to downplay anything? You had written the following statement earlier:

"I think it is simply irrational for the vast majority of people to fear the virus."

You say that as though people shouldn't care or worry about getting the virus simply because they might not be in the high-risk groups rather than worrying about potentially spreading the virus to someone who could become severely ill (or die) from it.

I had also asked you where or how you obtained your statistics. It was a genuine question. I wasn't denying the statistics. But I did point out that the stats would be off since not everyone who gets the virus is tested and therefore do not become part of the statistics.

As I said, if you choose to not worry about the virus, that's your decision. But please have some respect for those who do worry about it. Personally, I'd rather not see my 86-year old mother-in-law dying in a hospital bed while struggling to breathe through a ventilator or the same to happen to my elderly neighbors. I'd also rather not see the numbers become so high here again that the government begins to contemplate whether or not another lockdown is necessary. So please just have some decency and realize that some people's worry about the virus is indeed valid even though you feel that you yourself may have nothing to worry about.
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  #12522  
Old 10.09.2020, 14:57
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Re: Coronavirus

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Are those stats for Switzerland, and where did you get the stats from? You do realize that a lot of people have the virus but never become tested for it and never become part of the stats, right?

Listen, if you want to try to downplay the virus or feel that it's not a threat, that's fine. But for myself and my family, it's something we don't want. We also don't want to still be dealing with this damn pandemic a year from now, so we're willing to do what we feel might be necessary to try to help push it into the past, such as simply wearing a mask in the grocery store, without throwing a tantrum about it.
We will be dealing with the pandemic until we have herd immunity - either through infection or vaccination or a combination thereof.

Wearing a mask hopefully has significant benefits, such as saving lives, but shortening the length of the pandemic isn't one of them, it'll actually lengthen it, at least if the mask wearing is effective is achieving its stated aim of reducing infections.

Last edited by HickvonFrick; 10.09.2020 at 15:24.
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  #12523  
Old 10.09.2020, 15:45
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Re: Coronavirus

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They do show I have 0.4 of the IgA anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and zero of the IgG; where the IgA came from they do not postulate.
They also did not quote the measurement term used, 0.4 of what?
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It's an index of some sort, I scored 28, 1 or above is considered positive.
Correct, it's your COI or cutoff index score. COI<1.0 indicates non-reactive, COI≥1.0 indicates reactive.

More information here on the assay, if you're interested.
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  #12524  
Old 10.09.2020, 15:55
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Re: Coronavirus

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We will be dealing with the pandemic until we have herd immunity - either through infection or vaccination or a combination thereof.

Wearing a mask hopefully has significant benefits, such as saving lives, but shortening the length of the pandemic isn't one of them, it'll actually lengthen it, at least if the mask wearing is effective is achieving its stated aim of reducing infections.

It seems that you look at the benefits of mask in a negative way, which I do not deny. However, I choose to look in a more positive way, because 2020 has been full of negativity and hostility. In my opinion, the delay that masks bring is useful. We can come up with a much better treatments for deadly symptoms as well as the long-term damages, which reportedly make many victims wish they were dead.
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Old 10.09.2020, 15:57
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Re: Coronavirus

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it seems that you look at the benefits of mask in a negative way, which i do not deny. However, i choose to look in a more positive way, because 2020 has been full of negativity and hostility. In my opinion, the delay that masks bring is useful. We can come up with a much better treatments for deadly symptoms as well as the long-term damages, which reportedly make many victims wish they were dead.
+1
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  #12526  
Old 10.09.2020, 17:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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I think we can be relatively sure that reinfections are relatively rare or at the very least reduced to a minor infection? Has anybody hospitalised with covid had to go back into hospital with a new infection? Some places like France and Spain have seen relatively decent second waves so you would expect this to be the case if serious reinfection were possible? Particularly given that some covidiots will be predisposed to infection.
Reinfections do seem to be rather rare - the reports I've read seem to be isolated occurrences. This article discusses reinfections - only 2 confirmed cases, and while the first showed an expected less severe (asymptomatic, actually) response, the second case showed a more severe response in the reinfection. In reality, however, we really just don't know:

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Are reinfections more or less severe than the first?

Unlike Iwasaki, virologist Jonathan Stoye of the Francis Crick Institute in London took no comfort from the lack of symptoms from the Hong Kong man’s second infection. Drawing conclusions from a single case is hard, he says. “I’m not certain that really means anything at all.”

Stoye notes that the severity of COVID-19 varies enormously from person to person, and might vary from infection to infection in the same person. Variables such as the initial dose of virus, possible differences between variants of SARS-CoV-2 and changes in a person’s overall health could all affect the severity of a reinfection. “There are almost as many unknowns about reinfection as there were before this case,” he says.

Sorting out whether ‘immunological memory’ affects symptoms during a second infection is crucial, particularly for vaccine development. If symptoms are generally reduced the second time, as in the Hong Kong man, that suggests the immune system is responding as it should.

But if symptoms are consistently worse during a second bout of COVID-19, as they were in the person in Nevada, the immune system might be making things worse, says immunologist Gabrielle Belz at the University of Queensland and the Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research in Victoria, Australia. For example, some cases of severe COVID-19 are worsened by rogue immune responses that damage healthy tissue. People who have experienced this during a first infection might have immune cells that are primed to respond in a disproportionate way again the second time, says Belz.

Another possibility is that antibodies produced in response to SARS-CoV-2 help, rather than fight, the virus during a second infection. This phenomenon, called antibody-dependent enhancement, is rare — but researchers found worrying signs of it while trying to develop vaccines against related coronaviruses, responsible for severe acute respiratory syndrome and Middle East respiratory syndrome.

As researchers accumulate more examples of reinfection, they should be able to sort out these possibilities, says virologist Yong Poovorawan at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.
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  #12527  
Old 10.09.2020, 21:45
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Re: Coronavirus

An acquaintance is in quarantine now. He has major headache combined with all loss of smell and taste!
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  #12528  
Old 10.09.2020, 22:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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An acquaintance is in quarantine now. He has major headache combined with all loss of smell and taste!
Sounds like he should be in hospital, not in quarantine -- or at least tested. Is he confirmed COVID-19 +ve?
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  #12529  
Old 10.09.2020, 22:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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Sounds like he should be in hospital, not in quarantine -- or at least tested. Is he confirmed COVID-19 +ve?
Only really sick people with breathing difficulties need to be in hospital, reasonable enough to get a test to see if it is COVID-19 or not.
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  #12530  
Old 10.09.2020, 22:55
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Re: Coronavirus

I guess I interpreted that comment as though he did test positive and that's why he's in quarantine, but who knows...

I won't be at all surprised if the numbers really start to rise over the next few months now that kids are back in school and the weather is beginning to turn colder, etc. I also read the other day that people's vitamin D levels usually begin to drop in October, so we could see an increase in the # of people needing hospitalization as well, if their vitamin D is low. I came across this paper not long ago that examined the correlation between low vitamin D levels and mortality of COVID patients. It stated the following:

"Methods: We have identified the mean levels of vitamin D for 20 Europeans Countries for which we have also got the data regarding the morbidity and mortality caused by COVID-19.

Results: The mean level of vitamin D (average 56mmol/L, STDEV 10.61) in each country was strongly associated with the number of cases/1M (mean 295.95, STDEV 298.73 p=0.004, respectively with the mortality/1M (mean 5.96, STDEV 15.13, p < 0.00001).

Discussion: Vitamin D levels are severely low in the aging population especially in Spain, Italy and Switzerland. This is also the most vulnerable group of population for COVID-19.

Conclusions: We believe, that we can advise Vitamin D supplementation to protect against SARS-CoV2 infection."

The role of Vitamin D in the prevention of Coronavirus Disease 2019 infection and mortality
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-21211/v1
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  #12531  
Old 11.09.2020, 10:11
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Re: Coronavirus

Excellent and balanced (as usual) article on the FT.

The controversial epidemiologist believes lockdown is ‘using a hammer to kill a fly’. Could he be proved right?

https://www.ft.com/content/5cc92d45-...6-26501693a371

It's behind a paywall, so I can't share the whole of it, but a few snippets:

"Our meeting comes as things appear to be going his way. As coronavirus cases rise in pretty much all other European countries, leading to fears of a second wave including in the UK, they have been sinking all summer in Sweden. On a per capita basis, they are now 90 per cent below their peak in late June and under Norway’s and Denmark’s for the first time in five months. Tegnell had told me the first time we spoke in the spring that it would be in the autumn when it became more apparent how successful each country had been..."



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  #12532  
Old 11.09.2020, 10:16
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Re: Coronavirus

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Excellent and balanced (as usual) article on the FT.

The controversial epidemiologist believes lockdown is ‘using a hammer to kill a fly’. Could he be proved right?

https://www.ft.com/content/5cc92d45-...6-26501693a371

It's behind a paywall, so I can't share the whole of it, but a few snippets:

"Our meeting comes as things appear to be going his way. As coronavirus cases rise in pretty much all other European countries, leading to fears of a second wave including in the UK, they have been sinking all summer in Sweden. On a per capita basis, they are now 90 per cent below their peak in late June and under Norway’s and Denmark’s for the first time in five months. Tegnell had told me the first time we spoke in the spring that it would be in the autumn when it became more apparent how successful each country had been..."



If you look at the area under the graph of Nordic countries there were far more cases in Sweden versus the other countries. Even if Sweden avoids a second wave there was a high cost of deaths in the first wave versus the others which hopefully the other countries do not catch up to.
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  #12533  
Old 11.09.2020, 10:24
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Re: Coronavirus

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Excellent and balanced (as usual) article on the FT.

The controversial epidemiologist believes lockdown is ‘using a hammer to kill a fly’. Could he be proved right?
It's interesting that yesterday Sweden was finally and quietly removed from the UKs quarantine list, despite having been below the threshold for several weeks now. It's almost as if they don't want to admit something

We should be grateful to Sweden, imagine if they hadn't taken that path, many of us would not be any the wiser as to how pointless the lockdown was!
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Old 11.09.2020, 10:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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We should be grateful to Sweden, imagine if they hadn't taken that path, many of us would not be any the wiser as to how pointless the lockdown was!
I'm not sure if grateful is the correct word but yes, we can learn a lot from those statistics.... as long as the statistics are a credible reflection of reality.
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Old 11.09.2020, 10:31
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Re: Coronavirus

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If you look at the area under the graph of Nordic countries there were far more cases in Sweden versus the other countries. Even if Sweden avoids a second wave there was a high cost of deaths in the first wave versus the others which hopefully the other countries do not catch up to.
IF there's no second wave in Sweden that's where Sweden should get its economic and social dividend. Agreed that deaths are unlikely to be in line with its neighbours even in that scenario. Not unless the second wave around Europe causes more deaths than the first.

Im skeptical about the Swedish strategy personally. I can't see how they've had sufficient infections. For me it's more likely they've simply pushed the second wave back in time. The UK has done the Same to a lesser extent.
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Old 11.09.2020, 10:34
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Re: Coronavirus

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If you look at the area under the graph of Nordic countries there were far more cases in Sweden versus the other countries. Even if Sweden avoids a second wave there was a high cost of deaths in the first wave versus the others which hopefully the other countries do not catch up to.
I have no doubt, that one can twist any fact to fit ones narrative We both look at the same graph and you see it negatively, i see it positively. I guess it's a matter of ones general outlook on life.
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Old 11.09.2020, 10:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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I have no doubt, that one can twist any fact to fit ones narrative We both look at the same graph and you see it negatively, i see it positively. I guess it's a matter of ones general outlook on life.
The great thing about mathematics is that its absolute. There's no room for opinion. The area under the graph tells the story and you really can't spin that.

I see that Tony is once again, or rather, still, laser-focused on deaths. If I were one of the many thousands of Swedes infected by the virus way over the levels seen in other Nordic countries, and had survived, I'd rather wait to see what the consequences would be before leaping up and down with joy.
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Old 11.09.2020, 10:43
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Re: Coronavirus

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The great thing about mathematics is that its absolute.
No, this is a relative graph . But then again, this is not the first time you're wrong
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  #12539  
Old 11.09.2020, 10:48
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Re: Coronavirus

I think it will be interesting to see how things progress in Sweden and the rest of Europe over the next couple of months.
From those graphs it just looks like Sweden has delayed things a bit, the curve may start going upwards again there to but a few weeks behind everyone else.

Only time will tel.

I have been saying it all along and I will say it again now, it is far too early to be drawing any conclusions from this.
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  #12540  
Old 11.09.2020, 11:05
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Re: Coronavirus

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It's interesting that yesterday Sweden was finally and quietly removed from the UKs quarantine list, despite having been below the threshold for several weeks now. It's almost as if they don't want to admit something

We should be grateful to Sweden, imagine if they hadn't taken that path, many of us would not be any the wiser as to how pointless the lockdown was!
Indeed, COVID-19 deaths in Sweden were only five times more than their neighbours and their economy in Q2 is worse than their neigbours.
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