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  #12541  
Old 11.09.2020, 10:12
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Re: Coronavirus

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I have no doubt, that one can twist any fact to fit ones narrative We both look at the same graph and you see it negatively, i see it positively. I guess it's a matter of ones general outlook on life.
You see Sweden having many more cases and deaths than their neighbours as positive and that reflects your outlook on life?
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Old 11.09.2020, 10:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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You see Sweden having many more cases and deaths than their neighbours as positive and that reflects your outlook on life?
I am an observer: I see Sweden testing an alternative approach that was heavily criticized here with predictions of gloom and doom, but in the end seems to be paying off. Currently, daily deaths in Sweden are less than their neighbors. That means something. It's yet to be seen how things will develop, but from a "research" point of view we have an excellent data point, albeit only one, of someone doing exactly the opposite of the rest, with very different results. Time will tell who was right.

Chances are, approaches will gradually converge to a middle-ground. Social distancing, masks, but life carries on.
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  #12543  
Old 11.09.2020, 11:23
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Re: Coronavirus

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We should be grateful to Sweden, imagine if they hadn't taken that path, many of us would not be any the wiser as to how pointless the lockdown was!
I am glad that someone took a different path, too. Just to have another practice for comparison, after it's over.
Lockdown in spring was still justified, tough. And I hope that the swiss government would react the same way again.
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  #12544  
Old 11.09.2020, 12:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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I am glad that someone took a different path, too. Just to have another practice for comparison, after it's over.
Lockdown in spring was still justified, tough. And I hope that the swiss government would react the same way again.

I hope that the Swiss government would react earlier and better, so that we wouldn't have 45711 cases, 2020 deaths and huge economic losses.
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  #12545  
Old 11.09.2020, 12:38
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Re: Coronavirus

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Indeed, COVID-19 deaths in Sweden were only five times more than their neighbours and their economy in Q2 is worse than their neigbours.
The only way out of this for Sweden is if the real death rate is rather lower than that that has been modeled so far and existing coronaviruses give some semblance of a herd immunity.

5,843 deaths in Sweden.

Let's say the real death rate is as low as 0.2%. That'd correspond to approaching 3 million infections. I.e. between 25 and 30% of the population.

Even in that scenario they would still need to accept a second wave of at least the same magnitude as the first to get to herd immunity unless there is this extant immunity from other coronaviruses. Even if there is this extant immunity, that only really comes into play if the vaccine is slow to arrive. Otherwise, the game is over and Sweden is in last place.

Its still possible Sweden wins, but I don't think its probable. At the same time, some of the countries that have imposed the harshest lockdowns have also been really found out - Spain and France...
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Old 11.09.2020, 12:46
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Re: Coronavirus

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The only way out of this for Sweden is if the real death rate is rather lower than that that has been modeled so far and existing coronaviruses give some semblance of a herd immunity.

5,843 deaths in Sweden.

Let's say the real death rate is as low as 0.2%. That'd correspond to approaching 3 million infections. I.e. between 25 and 30% of the population.

Even in that scenario they would still need to accept a second wave of at least the same magnitude as the first to get to herd immunity unless there is this extant immunity from other coronaviruses. Even if there is this extant immunity, that only really comes into play if the vaccine is slow to arrive. Otherwise, the game is over and Sweden is in last place.

Its still possible Sweden wins, but I don't think its probable.
Wins? I wasn't aware this was a competition
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  #12547  
Old 11.09.2020, 13:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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Wins? I wasn't aware this was a competition

I'd say that it is. For countries that are able to contourn this crisis through whatever means and to restart their economy effectively, it will be possible to capture market share. Didn't the Chinese have a committee of boffins working on that? The problem was not so much how to _stop_ the economy, but rather how to _restart_ it.
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  #12548  
Old 11.09.2020, 13:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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I'd say that it is. For countries that are able to contourn this crisis through whatever means and to restart their economy effectively, it will be possible to capture market share. Didn't the Chinese have a committee of boffins working on that? The problem was not so much how to _stop_ the economy, but rather how to _restart_ it.
I guess it depends on how one defines "winning" against Covid, and where one decides a country has crossed the virtual finish line. According to Worldometers, Sweden is 13th in the world in per capita deaths - only two slots behind the USA - which everyone seems to agree is worst in the world. Switzerland is 38th. Sweden's economy so far has contracted nearly the same as its neighbors despite different approaches.

It seems some on EF believe that Sweden has crossed the finish line in first place, but imo the race is still being run. Cases didn't completely stall in the hot summer, so maybe cases will go nuts in the fall and winter. Or maybe not. The truth is no one knows.

An interesting comparison article last month illustrates the "no one knows yet" concept:
https://www.newscientist.com/article...uccess-story/#
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  #12549  
Old 11.09.2020, 13:49
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Re: Coronavirus

Regarding the declining CFR in spite of increasing cases, it was speculated that the new infections are just skewing younger, and they have less chance of dying. However, the Oxford CEBM just published a (not yet peer-reviewed) analysis of German data, and indeed, across all populations, the virus does appear to be less lethal, even in the older population:

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Crude estimates of the CFR over time show that for people aged 80 and over the average CFR was 29% up to week 18, fell to 17% in weeks 19 to 27, and for mid-July onwards the CFR was 11% – a decrease of 61%.

A larger decrease is seen in the ages 60-79 with average CFR ~ 9% in March/April falling to 2% in July August.



More granular estimates of CFR trends that take account of the lag between cases and deaths provide similar patterns with a steep decline from early April and levelling off in the summer months.

This analysis shows that the fatality rate from COVID-19 has declined in all age groups, and the older age groups drive the overall reduction.
As has been discussed on this thread, what could be driving it is just better treatments, or maybe the virus has evolved, or our behavior or the corona measures have reduced viral loads, or it's the result of more widespread testing, or something else - but maybe this rules out the "younger cohort" hypothesis.

Whatever the reason, the data seem to bear out that the virus is less lethal now, overall, than it was in the spring, at least in Germany (and hopefully similarly elsewhere). That's reason for encouragement. It's probably fair to assume that there is also a proportionate decrease in disease severity.

As Pancakes raised earlier, considering what appears to be a connection between vitamin D levels and disease severity, I wonder how things will evolve with respect to deaths and disease severity as the sunlight wanes in the coming months. Maybe this is the reason for our currently low deaths/hospitalizations.
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  #12550  
Old 11.09.2020, 16:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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IF there's no second wave in Sweden that's where Sweden should get its economic and social dividend. Agreed that deaths are unlikely to be in line with its neighbours even in that scenario. Not unless the second wave around Europe causes more deaths than the first.

Im skeptical about the Swedish strategy personally. I can't see how they've had sufficient infections. For me it's more likely they've simply pushed the second wave back in time. The UK has done the Same to a lesser extent.
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I think it will be interesting to see how things progress in Sweden and the rest of Europe over the next couple of months.
From those graphs it just looks like Sweden has delayed things a bit, the curve may start going upwards again there to but a few weeks behind everyone else.

Only time will tel.

I have been saying it all along and I will say it again now, it is far too early to be drawing any conclusions from this.
Cases already rose again in Sweden in July and August. Sweden didn't panic though as their chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said don't worry about cases, rather worry about the number of people entering hospital. Now they have a very low number of new cases.

As 22 yards keeps insisting we don't just look at the deaths. In this regard Sweden have already won! Their kids never missed any school, their economy is in a stronger place than most, they don't have to wear any useless face masks, they can meet in groups of upto 500.
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  #12551  
Old 11.09.2020, 16:39
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Re: Coronavirus

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Regarding the declining CFR in spite of increasing cases, it was speculated that the new infections are just skewing younger, and they have less chance of dying. However, the Oxford CEBM just published a (not yet peer-reviewed) analysis of German data, and indeed, across all populations, the virus does appear to be less lethal, even in the older population:



As has been discussed on this thread, what could be driving it is just better treatments, or maybe the virus has evolved, or our behavior or the corona measures have reduced viral loads, or it's the result of more widespread testing, or something else - but maybe this rules out the "younger cohort" hypothesis.

Whatever the reason, the data seem to bear out that the virus is less lethal now, overall, than it was in the spring, at least in Germany (and hopefully similarly elsewhere). That's reason for encouragement. It's probably fair to assume that there is also a proportionate decrease in disease severity.

As Pancakes raised earlier, considering what appears to be a connection between vitamin D levels and disease severity, I wonder how things will evolve with respect to deaths and disease severity as the sunlight wanes in the coming months. Maybe this is the reason for our currently low deaths/hospitalizations.
I'd like to see that data republished within the cohorts split up a bit more. Those are particularly big cohorts and if the average age *within* the cohort is changing over time, that could be an important factor. Although less important for 80 plus I imagine.

It does beg the question - if it continues to fall, at what point do we accept that this disease is not worth the present social distancing etc. for. ATM too high for me - but its a question that should be put out there given the rapid fall.

Last edited by HickvonFrick; 11.09.2020 at 16:50.
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  #12552  
Old 11.09.2020, 16:40
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Re: Coronavirus

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Regarding the declining CFR in spite of increasing cases, it was speculated that the new infections are just skewing younger, and they have less chance of dying. However, the Oxford CEBM just published a (not yet peer-reviewed) analysis of German data, and indeed, across all populations, the virus does appear to be less lethal, even in the older population:



As has been discussed on this thread, what could be driving it is just better treatments, or maybe the virus has evolved, or our behavior or the corona measures have reduced viral loads, or it's the result of more widespread testing, or something else - but maybe this rules out the "younger cohort" hypothesis.

Whatever the reason, the data seem to bear out that the virus is less lethal now, overall, than it was in the spring, at least in Germany (and hopefully similarly elsewhere). That's reason for encouragement. It's probably fair to assume that there is also a proportionate decrease in disease severity.

As Pancakes raised earlier, considering what appears to be a connection between vitamin D levels and disease severity, I wonder how things will evolve with respect to deaths and disease severity as the sunlight wanes in the coming months. Maybe this is the reason for our currently low deaths/hospitalizations.
Just look at mortality in the southern hemisphere!
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  #12553  
Old 11.09.2020, 17:44
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Re: Coronavirus

This is a PSA.

Just wear a damn mask. Think of the animals!
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  #12554  
Old 11.09.2020, 19:25
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Re: Coronavirus

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Cases already rose again in Sweden in July and August. Sweden didn't panic though as their chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said don't worry about cases, rather worry about the number of people entering hospital. Now they have a very low number of new cases.

As 22 yards keeps insisting we don't just look at the deaths. In this regard Sweden have already won! Their kids never missed any school, their economy is in a stronger place than most, they don't have to wear any useless face masks, they can meet in groups of upto 500.
Fact free!
In Sweden upper secondary schools, municipal adult education, vocational adult education and higher education institutions have provided distance learning since mid-March and will continue to do so until further notice.

There's also been a ban on gatherings of more than 50 people, not 500. The police can cancel or disband a public gathering or event with more than 50 participants. Anyone who organises an event that violates the ban can face a fine or prison sentence of a maximum of six months.

A Swedish study highlights the efficacy of face masks in reducing the spread of infectious viral diseases, with its authors saying masks should be encouraged wherever social distancing is not possible, including in Sweden.

A group of researchers from Sweden's Karolinska Institute and Canada's McMaster University, led by nephrologist Catherine Clase, reviewed 25 published studies into cloth face masks, and their filtration ability.
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Old 11.09.2020, 19:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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I'd like to see that data republished within the cohorts split up a bit more. Those are particularly big cohorts and if the average age *within* the cohort is changing over time, that could be an important factor. Although less important for 80 plus I imagine.

It does beg the question - if it continues to fall, at what point do we accept that this disease is not worth the present social distancing etc. for. ATM too high for me - but its a question that should be put out there given the rapid fall.
If you looked at the analysis link then you would see they cannot republish because the data is not available for smaller cohorts. rolleyes:

Dangerous to reduce the anti COVID measures until we understand why the death rate is falling, it is called science.
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Old 11.09.2020, 20:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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... imo the race is still being run.
...
The truth is no one knows.
This. Exactly this. Simply facing up to this fact, amongst the fluctuations of what tentative science and statistics can offer, can make it easier to get one's head around implementing the precautionary measures.
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Old 11.09.2020, 20:48
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Re: Coronavirus

Here‘s another PSA - get a flu shot, unless you are allergic or have a severely compromised immune system.

Doctor‘s offices start receiving them in October, specialists may have them earlier. Editing to say I don‘t know exactly when pharmacies have them.

Last edited by ennui; 11.09.2020 at 22:06.
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  #12558  
Old 12.09.2020, 15:41
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Re: Coronavirus

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I hope that the Swiss government would react earlier and better, so that we wouldn't have 45711 cases, 2020 deaths and huge economic losses.
Careful to not use hindsight.

First of all the Federal Council needs reason aka solid evidence to call it a national emergency and implement the measures bypassing the parliament.

And there needs to be some kind of proof in reality that the measures are necessary for them to be accepted by the population. I don't think they would have been accepted one week earlier, for instance. The fact that Samnaun, which shares its mountains and some ski slopes with Austria's main hotspot Ischgl, tried to postpone the lockdown (or bypass it entirely) shows that even with the way things evolved some assholes thought they knew better or had different priorities.
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Old 12.09.2020, 17:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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If you look at the area under the graph of Nordic countries there were far more cases in Sweden versus the other countries.
the graph just proves that herd immunity works
No one say that Sweden did the best in terms of protecting elders
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Old 12.09.2020, 17:17
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Re: Coronavirus

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Just wear a damn mask.
There is a study shows that while screaming, droplets drop much further than during calm conversation
So, if you wearing a mask, but yelling on someone, mask will not help much
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