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  #12761  
Old 17.09.2020, 14:47
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Re: Coronavirus

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What happened to freedom of speech? Yes limited to avoid dangerous and deliberate lies. Do you want to live somewhere where you can no longer speak your mind? I don't. This isn't China, we don't censor people's comments about government policy in countries like Switzerland.

Your post is frankly chilling. What next? We get banned from conversations with our neighbours on Covid? Would you like that to happen?
Indeed.
His post reminded me about the debate climate in Sweden, were any debate regarding a sensitive topic like, the environment, covid-19. law and order, and immigration is shutdown and censored.
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  #12762  
Old 17.09.2020, 14:51
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Re: Coronavirus

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Well if the bars and restaurants are closed then there will not be cases linked to them will there
Also, 80 is a pretty good number to stick with, and they should be happy to have gotten ahead of it. There's no accounting for 20/20 hindsight.
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  #12763  
Old 17.09.2020, 15:47
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Re: Coronavirus

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I'm not doubting that they tested negative and then tested positive.

I'm saying that when there's a very large number of people infected (1,156 on the ship according to wiki), knowing that you can get positive tests from dormant virus long after the infection (see link I previously posted), knowing that there's been extensive testing of each individual, you would expect there to be a significant degree of false positivity making it look like people had been reinfected when they in fact had not. That's not to say that none were reinfected. But its just not proof, not for me.

For proof I'd need evidence either i) that significant symptoms or a high viral dose are present the second infection, or preferably ii) the second infection has been shown to be genetically dissimilar to the first.

I don't doubt that after a few months some reinfection will occur, especially where the initial infection is mild. It'd be interesting to see if anybody has been hospitalized multiple times. That's where it starts getting important.

My scientific training always taught me to be skeptical about everything, and only call something a fact if it is pretty much indisputable.

AFAIK we have not yet had a single death, worldwide from a reinfection demonstrated. This makes me suspect that a decent degree of protection is likely to average in the years. Which is good - because this indicates that the vaccine is likely to be effective also for a decent period of time. Maybe not 100%, but a high figure.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/covi...in-icu/1973309

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20...ecovering.aspx

https://www.newindianexpress.com/cit...n-2193910.html

There are three examples of doctors being reinfected, all a few months after the first infection, from across the world. Two of them in ICU, and all of them showing reinfection after being in contact with COVID patients. Even if its not reinfection but some virus dormancy waiting to be triggered by reexposure to COVID, it's troubling news.
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Old 17.09.2020, 15:49
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Re: Coronavirus

Yes, I think those that don't take the vaccine should have to wear yellow badges...

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I'm hoping that evidence of vaccinations (like an immunization passport) will eventually be mandatory to access or use certain services and areas like airports and schools etc.
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  #12765  
Old 17.09.2020, 15:57
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Re: Coronavirus

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Germany has added Canton Fribourg to Cantons Vaud and Genève on its (very extensive) list of international risk areas. (The link is for the situation as of yesterday; updated information (in English) is available from the link on this page.)

From the information provided by the Robert Koch Institut:

"Persons entering the Federal Republic of Germany, who have spent time in a risk area at any specific period within 14 days prior to entry, are subject to a mandatory Covid-19 test... and may be subject to quarantine under the specific quarantine ordinances issued by the competent [German] federal state (Land)."

People who have spent time in the designated risk areas are required to undergo a COVID-19 test in Germany, or to produce a report for a test undertaken in the last 48 hours prior to entry. The test report must be in German or English.

Quarantine rules for those with a positive test result, or with no test, vary from state to state.
I'm still struggling to see how this is enforceable. Checking number plates at the border? Much of France is on the Swiss quarantine list but authorities would be hard pressed to prove where someone returning from France had been
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  #12766  
Old 17.09.2020, 15:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/covi...in-icu/1973309

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20...ecovering.aspx

https://www.newindianexpress.com/cit...n-2193910.html

There are three examples of doctors being reinfected, all a few months after the first infection, from across the world. Two of them in ICU, and all of them showing reinfection after being in contact with COVID patients. Even if its not reinfection but some virus dormancy waiting to be triggered by reexposure to COVID, it's troubling news.
There have been definite cases of reinfection by now I agree. There was a nice case where it was shown to be a different strain in the second infection.

We will see how common after this second wave in Europe.

The case on the ship was a matter of no more than a couple of weeks, and with no less than 13 people - which I am more suspicious of given that there's nothing similar been reported anywhere else.
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Old 17.09.2020, 16:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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I'm still struggling to see how this is enforceable. Checking number plates at the border? Much of France is on the Swiss quarantine list but authorities would be hard pressed to prove where someone returning from France had been
Doesn't need to be. Not following the ordung is VERBOTEN
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  #12768  
Old 17.09.2020, 16:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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Doesn't need to be. Not following the ordung is VERBOTEN
So many of these measures reliant on compliance, surprisingly given the protests in Berlin and other cities across the countries, Germans seem to be relatively sceptical. I wonder how much further they'll (governments) be able to push it before people start actively making a point of disobeying the rules? I think this is another reason that we won't see a second general lockdown.
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  #12769  
Old 17.09.2020, 16:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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So many of these measures reliant on compliance, surprisingly given the protests in Berlin and other cities across the countries, Germans seem to be relatively sceptical. I wonder how much further they'll (governments) be able to push it before people start actively making a point of disobeying the rules? I think this is another reason that we won't see a second general lockdown.
I'm not sure Germans are really skeptical - look at their covid figures compared to their neighbours. This tells the real story. Also see the roesti divide of covid cases in Switzerland.

The Germans like a limited number of rules and then to follow them anally. The French like setting loads of rules and then following absolutely none of them, at least when they won't get caught.

God knows about us Brits. I think we just like to flap our arms up and down and gesticulate wildly.
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  #12770  
Old 17.09.2020, 16:43
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Re: Coronavirus

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Do you think all criticisms and comments on government policy should be banned because one doesn't have a PhD in that area?
Not at all, however, I do think that freedom of speech doesn't mean saying or writing whatever crosses one's mind. As far as I'm concerned I try to gather as much info from reliable sources as I can, use my own filter and write those things which are not hurting the majority of/other people. Freedom of speech (or thought, asa matter of fact), in my opinion, does not equal manipulation or being manipulated.
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Old 17.09.2020, 17:01
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Re: Coronavirus

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There have been definite cases of reinfection by now I agree. There was a nice case where it was shown to be a different strain in the second infection.

We will see how common after this second wave in Europe.

The case on the ship was a matter of no more than a couple of weeks, and with no less than 13 people - which I am more suspicious of given that there's nothing similar been reported anywhere else.
A couple of weeks? The outbreak began in early March and the reinfections were reported in mid-May.
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  #12772  
Old 17.09.2020, 18:03
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Re: Coronavirus

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I wish we could visit soon, but we can't. And it's wiser if we don't.

So frankly when I read all these opinions against masks and all this detachment as if "risk groups" aren't people like everyone else, I do wonder what on earth is so fundamentally wrong with some here.
I couldn't have said it better and couldn't agree more.
I absolutely hate all this more than I can say. The separation from family and friends has been awful and I can't wait to see them all again, but the idiots who are behaving stupidly out of some misguided sense of self-righteousness or juvenile rebellion (which the majority should have grown out of by now) are just prolonging the return to a semblance of normality. Basically, selfish people in general ruining things for the rest of us yet again because they're incapable of behaving like rational, thoughtful, considerate human beings. Some are borderline sentient beings.
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Old 17.09.2020, 18:04
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Re: Coronavirus

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A couple of weeks? The outbreak began in early March and the reinfections were reported in mid-May.
Is there any data for the timeline of the individuals concerned rather than the outbreak at large?

According to https://www.maritime-executive.com/a...positive-again - people were still testing positive after a period of more than 14 days in isolation shoreside (so presumably that rules out a second infection for those people) - for these people it appears to be dead or dormant virus for sure. We know that's a thing.

Which in turn makes you think there's a reasonably high probability that its dead or dormant virus they've found that again in the apparent second infections.

I'm not definitively saying there's no second infections - its just that its not proven - at least for me.

Another navel example - https://www.livescience.com/antibodi...hing-boat.html . 104 / 122 infected. 0/3 of those known to have pre-existing antibodies.

Statistically that's around a 1 in 311 chance of happening randomly.
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  #12774  
Old 17.09.2020, 18:38
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Re: Coronavirus

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Have you looked at "official recommendations" in some places. They haven't got a clue and are making it up as they go along. Tbh even Switzerland doesn't have a clue and is making it up as it goes along - its just doing so well.
Far from it.

At the end of Feb, Tom/st2lemans posted the link to Switzerland's pandemic plan in this thread and I reposted it on 1 March https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/en/home...demieplan.html

Like many others at the time, I was following the plan in an effort to predict when lockdown would become a favoured option. The wake up call for me was trying to find the same level of detail for the UK. It's weird that some (including myself before moving here) have a preconception of Switzerland being secretive and the UK being far more open. Unfortunately, I now believe the opposite to be the case.
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  #12775  
Old 17.09.2020, 19:06
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Re: Coronavirus

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I'm not sure Germans are really skeptical - look at their covid figures compared to their neighbours. This tells the real story. Also see the roesti divide of covid cases in Switzerland.
You mean the exposure Romands get to French CV numbers. Since that's what's happening, looks like. As per discipline, people in my area were on board, super fast. Still are.

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My scientific training always taught me to be skeptical about everything, and only call something a fact if it is pretty much indisputable.
I agree with what you wrote. Picked that line since it made me think - in general. I have never seen a time period in ac. publishing or even simpy justifying research - that would be so plagued by wishful thinking and lack of sci rigor. There is so much at stake that only a few scientists keep their objectivity and skepticism needed. And they will have hard time being heard. It gets political, populistic and oportunistic just like cheap journalism. That's me being skeptical. I'll call it "insta-science".
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  #12776  
Old 17.09.2020, 20:40
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Re: Coronavirus

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Is there any data for the timeline of the individuals concerned rather than the outbreak at large?

According to https://www.maritime-executive.com/a...positive-again - people were still testing positive after a period of more than 14 days in isolation shoreside (so presumably that rules out a second infection for those people) - for these people it appears to be dead or dormant virus for sure. We know that's a thing.

Which in turn makes you think there's a reasonably high probability that its dead or dormant virus they've found that again in the apparent second infections.

I'm not definitively saying there's no second infections - its just that its not proven - at least for me.

Another navel example - https://www.livescience.com/antibodi...hing-boat.html . 104 / 122 infected. 0/3 of those known to have pre-existing antibodies.

Statistically that's around a 1 in 311 chance of happening randomly.
"Navel" did you by any chance mean "naval".

How can you claim that "for these people it appears to be dead or dormant virus for sure" and "there's a reasonably high probability that its dead or dormant virus they've found" after a minimum of two negative tests per person and without a shred of evidence to support your theory?

"Is there any data for the timeline of the individuals concerned rather than the outbreak at large?" There is nothing to support your repeated and evidence free claim of "a couple of weeks".

I don't know where you got your scientific training but if I were you I would ask for my money back.
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Old 17.09.2020, 23:52
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Re: Coronavirus

I was reading up a bit more about the 1918 "Spanish Flu" pandemic last night, which ended up killing an estimated 50 million people worldwide. The difference between that and COVID-19 is that people were not able to get the Spanish flu twice. That's why it eventually went away. But I also read that the 1918 virus mutated and came back much more strongly in a second wave.

"Reported cases of Spanish flu dropped off over the summer of 1918, and there was hope at the beginning of August that the virus had run its course. In retrospect, it was only the calm before the storm. Somewhere in Europe, a mutated strain of the Spanish flu virus had emerged that had the power to kill a perfectly healthy young man or woman within 24 hours of showing the first signs of infection."
https://www.history.com/news/spanish...ave-resurgence

So while I know that the Spanish Flu virus was an H1N1 virus and not a coronavirus, I then began to research a bit on the way SARS-CoV-2 is currently mutating. And I found this article about a recent study that suggests the COVID-19 virus may indeed be becoming more infectious:


COVID-19 is Mutating and A Scripps Research Study Reveals the Coronavirus May Become Even More Infectious

Jul 24, 2020
https://www.darkdaily.com/covid-19-i...re-infectious/

Researchers found evidence indicating that the virus has—under selection pressure—made itself more stable, giving it a “significant boost in infectivity.” However, apparently, it hasn't yet been confirmed as to whether or not the virus is indeed mutating to be more infectious.

Anyways... I just thought I'd share that. It's rather interesting to learn about the way these viruses behave and mutate, and that article explains it very well.
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Old 17.09.2020, 23:54
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Re: Coronavirus



https://www.rts.ch/info/regions/vaud...arantaine.html

Selon laRTS, le Canton de Vaud n’impose plus l’isolement si une personne a été en contact avec un malade, pour autant qu’elle ne vive pas sous le même toit que la personne contaminée. Un assouplissement des règles de quarantaine qui a de quoi surprendre de la part du Canton de Vaud, le plus atteint par le coronavirus en Suisse en l’état actuel.

Translation

According to the RTS, the Canton of Vaud no longer imposes isolation if a person has been in contact with a sick person, as long as they do not live under the same roof as the infected person. A relaxation of the quarantine rules which is surprisingly on the part of the Canton of Vaud, the most affected by the coronavirus in Switzerland as it stands.
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Old 18.09.2020, 00:02
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Re: Coronavirus

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https://www.rts.ch/info/regions/vaud...arantaine.html

Selon laRTS, le Canton de Vaud n’impose plus l’isolement si une personne a été en contact avec un malade, pour autant qu’elle ne vive pas sous le même toit que la personne contaminée. Un assouplissement des règles de quarantaine qui a de quoi surprendre de la part du Canton de Vaud, le plus atteint par le coronavirus en Suisse en l’état actuel.

Translation

According to the RTS, the Canton of Vaud no longer imposes isolation if a person has been in contact with a sick person, as long as they do not live under the same roof as the infected person. A relaxation of the quarantine rules which is surprisingly on the part of the Canton of Vaud, the most affected by the coronavirus in Switzerland as it stands.
Stunning. Vaud has 215 cases per 100k in the last 14 days vs.the Swiss risk threshold (for other countries of course) of 60.
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Old 18.09.2020, 00:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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Scott Atlas, one of President Trump’s coronavirus advisers, is threatening to sue a group of Stanford doctors and researchers after they penned a public letter calling out “falsehoods” and “misrepresentations” of science around COVID-19.

Atlas, a senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution who has questioned the science of wearing masks to stop the spread of COVID-19, has made claims that “run counter to established science” and undermines public health authorities by doing so, 78 researchers and doctors wrote in the Sept. 9 letter posted on Stanford's website.
Source

Atlas, a neuroradiologist who has no training in infectious diseases, public health, or epidemiology, recently joined the White House coronavirus task force and appears to be favored by the president.
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