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  #12921  
Old 23.09.2020, 10:50
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Re: Coronavirus

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No. It's not a full lockdown. Stop saying it is.

Show me a western country where there isn't heavy consumerism. Don't underestimate the ingenuity of businesses. There's been a wholesale shift in how to deliver but deliver they do. Quite literally in a lot of cases.
I've never said it's a full lockdown

Germany, France, Austria, Switzerland in fact virtually every other European country have economies with far less of a reliance on people spending their money (and getting into debt). The UK is far more similar to the US in this regard. Any measures that will impact on people going out and being able to spend their money will hit the UK economy far harder when compared to other European countries.
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  #12922  
Old 23.09.2020, 11:05
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Re: Coronavirus

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Travel --> No business travel will mean a reduction in the number of airlines, less people booking holidays will mean the death of the travel industry.

No mass gatherings --> No spectators at sports stadia (professional sports clubs will go bust), no one going to the theater, cinema closures? Who knows.
Yesterday at lunch my colleagues and me were joking about business travel. It is something to laugh at because operations run fine. We engineers are nerds and our customers are nerds, thus we can work through mails and videocalls. Now that C-suites are stuck at home, the profits of our employer may be even higher. The virus did what no executive could: reduce overhead costs

I don't see the death of the travel industry. What I see is a catalyst that will further accelerate the competition between low cost and traditional airlines. Who will be the last standing, who can adapt faster? easyjet/ryanair or AirFrance/Lufthansa/the Persian Gulf ones?

Football continues. Tell me if you can spot the covid19 on the MANU equity price. The downsides are no fans in the stadiums and the lost revenue in tickets and services not consumed (food, drinks, lodging). Sorry for the people who lost income because they depended on crowds going to stadiums, but it's not the end of the world for the football industry.
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  #12923  
Old 23.09.2020, 11:27
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yesterday at lunch my colleagues and me were joking about business travel. It is something to laugh at because operations run fine. We engineers are nerds and our customers are nerds, thus we can work through mails and videocalls. Now that C-suites are stuck at home, the profits of our employer may be even higher. The virus did what no executive could: reduce overhead costs

I don't see the death of the travel industry. What I see is a catalyst that will further accelerate the competition between low cost and traditional airlines. Who will be the last standing, who can adapt faster? easyjet/ryanair or AirFrance/Lufthansa/the Persian Gulf ones?

Football continues. Tell me if you can spot the covid19 on the MANU equity price. The downsides are no fans in the stadiums and the lost revenue in tickets and services not consumed (food, drinks, lodging). Sorry for the people who lost income because they depended on crowds going to stadiums, but it's not the end of the world for the football industry.
Not for the big clubs no, but the clubs below the top leagues that don't have the big TV contracts? Much of their income is derived from the turnstiles and they're the life blood of football. It's not just football either, that sport will probably get off with the least damage, the same won't be the case for less popular and fringe professional sports from Cricket to Speedway.

Maybe the reduction in the air travel isn't all a bad thing in terms of the environment. Terrible if you're income is reliant on it though. Most large airline business models are reliant on business travel, many won't survive Covid which will result in less competition so in the end families will end up paying more for their annual trip to Marbella.
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  #12924  
Old 23.09.2020, 11:35
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Re: Coronavirus

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Yesterday at lunch my colleagues and me were joking about business travel. It is something to laugh at because operations run fine. We engineers are nerds and our customers are nerds, thus we can work through mails and videocalls. Now that C-suites are stuck at home, the profits of our employer may be even higher. The virus did what no executive could: reduce overhead costs
It's not a problem for you guys, it's not even a problem for the C-suite. It's a problem for us, in commercial, as not seeing customers face to face for such a long time turns long-cultivated relationships into a transactional relationship. Before moving to commercial, when I was in development, I would have thought exactly like you, but now, seeing what I see, it's not that simple. Customers expect to be seen from time to time and a Zoom call just doesn't cut it for the type of interaction that builds relationships. Yes, 2020 we muddle through due to good foundation laid in the past years. It's 2021 that I am a bit more worried about. Let's see, the silver lining is that our competition also can't see them, but that's not a solution
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Old 23.09.2020, 11:52
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Re: Coronavirus

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It's not a problem for you guys, it's not even a problem for the C-suite. It's a problem for us, in commercial, as not seeing customers face to face for such a long time turns long-cultivated relationships into a transactional relationship. Before moving to commercial, when I was in development, I would have thought exactly like you, but now, seeing what I see, it's not that simple. Customers expect to be seen from time to time and a Zoom call just doesn't cut it for the type of interaction that builds relationships. Yes, 2020 we muddle through due to good foundation laid in the past years. It's 2021 that I am a bit more worried about. Let's see, the silver lining is that our competition also can't see them, but that's not a solution
Someone desperately trying to cling on to their Senator miles and more status
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  #12926  
Old 23.09.2020, 11:53
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Re: Coronavirus

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Someone desperately trying to cling on to their Senator miles and more status
Not at all, this was extended automatically
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  #12927  
Old 23.09.2020, 12:03
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Re: Coronavirus

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Not at all, this was extended automatically
I know, I was joking. It's a problem we're going to face though, I agree in certain cultures face to face contact is essential. It's also it's good for innovation and resolving problems. In spite of all this I believe it will be difficult to convince the bean counters after the pandemic that business travel is a necessity!
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  #12928  
Old 23.09.2020, 12:20
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Not at all, this was extended automatically

That was nice as I was getting nowhere with my miles this year......
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  #12929  
Old 23.09.2020, 12:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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I've never said it's a full lockdown

Germany, France, Austria, Switzerland in fact virtually every other European country have economies with far less of a reliance on people spending their money (and getting into debt). The UK is far more similar to the US in this regard. Any measures that will impact on people going out and being able to spend their money will hit the UK economy far harder when compared to other European countries.
You said "it may as well be full lockdown" from an economic point of view. It isn't.

Switzerland is very much dependent on people spending money! It's how the high prices are justified: to pay the high wages.

You're seriously trying to say that commerce/consumerism doesn't drive these countries? Don't be so silly.
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  #12930  
Old 23.09.2020, 12:59
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Re: Coronavirus

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...and fringe professional sports from Cricket to Speedway.
Cricket is a fringe sport now?
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  #12931  
Old 23.09.2020, 13:14
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Re: Coronavirus

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Cricket is a fringe sport now?
If you look at Cricket World Cup Super league just England & Ireland from Europe. Looks very 'fringe' to me
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020–2...p_Super_League
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  #12932  
Old 23.09.2020, 13:18
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Re: Coronavirus

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If you look at Cricket World Cup Super league just England & Ireland from Europe. Looks very 'fringe' to me
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020–2...p_Super_League
Millions and millions of avid followers AFAIK.

22Yards? Thoughts?
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  #12933  
Old 23.09.2020, 13:24
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Re: Coronavirus

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One has to remember that, rightly or wrongly, the UK is a heavily consumption based service economy. The measures announced yesterday will be catastrophic for that!
The financial services sector, which is what is part of what is often being referred to when economists refer to 'the service sector' is ticking along. They're some of the people who've been working from home throughout and that sector will be far more affected in the UK by brexit than covid. https://www.theguardian.com/business...ovid-19-crisis
If you look at that sector in Switzerland, CS reported their best performance for a decade in Q2 which was lockdown. https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/credit-...ation/45936174

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Rule of 6 + table service only --> Pubs, bars and restaurants all going to service, many won't have a viable business with table service only. Far fewer people will go out when they can only meet in groups of 6 from two households.
I'm guessing you've heard about the outdoor wedding in Maine which has resulted in 176 covid cases and 7 deaths? https://www.insider.com/maine-corona...wedding-2020-8

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Travel --> No business travel will mean a reduction in the number of airlines, less people booking holidays will mean the death of the travel industry.
That's not entirely true.
Throughout lockdown, essential business travel was still permitted. Many tertiary industries chose to cut back on travel which has had a massive impact, but primary and secondary industries largely kept travelling where possible. I'm seeing this from former colleagues who still work in business travel and from a close friend who works in recruitment in the oil and gas industry. They're classed as essential services so business travel still happens in such sectors.

This has been a bigger hit to the leisure travel industry, but it will revive just as it did after 9/11 and the volcanic dust cloud. So stop panicking Tony. You'll still get your holibobs in a year or two.

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No spectators at sports stadia (professional sports clubs will go bust), no one going to the theater, cinema closures?
It struck me that, in the UK, the first sport to come back was horse racing. My guess is that gambling generates huge revenue for the government coffers (I used to work at UK Tote Group's main office). Second was football behind closed doors, another betting industry favourite.

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An utter disaster, the country is sleepwalking to economic catastrophe through measures that have absolutely no basis in science nor logic!
I thought you'd be cock-a-hoop to have a whipping boy for the huge economic impact caused by brexit There's really no pleasing some people...
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  #12934  
Old 23.09.2020, 13:41
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Cricket is a fringe sport now?
Is it my writing or your reading

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the same won't be the case for less popular and fringe professional sports from Cricket to Speedway.
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You said "it may as well be full lockdown" from an economic point of view. It isn't.

Switzerland is very much dependent on people spending money! It's how the high prices are justified: to pay the high wages.

You're seriously trying to say that commerce/consumerism doesn't drive these countries? Don't be so silly.
Switzerland has a consumer market value of around 50% of GDP, the UK is closer to 70%. That's quite a difference, furthermore here in Switzerland we're able to meet in groups, get served at a bar, are not required to wear a mask in most cantons, not worry about a 10pm curfew etc.
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Old 23.09.2020, 13:51
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Re: Coronavirus

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Cricket is a fringe sport now?


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If you look at Cricket World Cup Super league just England & Ireland from Europe. Looks very 'fringe' to me
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020–2...p_Super_League
It looks to me like TonyClifton was talking about sports in the UK. Cricket is far from "fringe" there. Of course, if he was talking about the US, he'd be correct in labelling it a "fringe sport" -- but so is professional football, there, and I wouldn't call speedway "fringe" in the US.

If he meant worldwide, well...

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Millions and millions of avid followers AFAIK.

22Yards? Thoughts?
Yes, millions and millions in the UK; billions worldwide. The Cricket World Cup boasts the third highest viewer numbers of any sporting event in the world: 2.6 billion viewers last year.
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Old 23.09.2020, 13:53
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Is it my writing or your reading
It's your writing, rather clearly. But to be fair, I don't expect you to know anything about life in Britain.
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Old 23.09.2020, 14:16
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Re: Coronavirus

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Is it my writing or your reading





Switzerland has a consumer market value of around 50% of GDP, the UK is closer to 70%. That's quite a difference, furthermore here in Switzerland we're able to meet in groups, get served at a bar, are not required to wear a mask in most cantons, not worry about a 10pm curfew etc.
Your writing, definitely. If you meant cricket is less popular than, say, the NFL, then fair enough. But the fact -actual fact - is that cricket is hugely popular.

Switzerland has a relatively tiny population and is largely shut on Sundays. Your point?

You said that European countries weren't consumer driven. Which it total bollix and you know it.
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  #12938  
Old 23.09.2020, 15:32
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Re: Coronavirus

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Germany, France, Austria, Switzerland in fact virtually every other European country have economies with far less of a reliance on people spending their money (and getting into debt). The UK is far more similar to the US in this regard.
Wow! You couldn't be more wrong with regards to Switzerland.

Please tell me you're not paid to be an economist?

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https://tradingeconomics.com/country...ntinent=europe
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Old 23.09.2020, 15:42
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Wow! You couldn't be more wrong with regards to Switzerland.

Please tell me you're not paid to be an economist?

Attachment 140278
https://tradingeconomics.com/country...ntinent=europe
Are mortgages included as 'household debt', I have a feeling they are not.
Equity to debt ratios including mortgages would also be interesting.
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Old 23.09.2020, 15:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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Wow! You couldn't be more wrong with regards to Switzerland.

Please tell me you're not paid to be an economist?

Attachment 140278
https://tradingeconomics.com/country...ntinent=europe

Maybe he is an economist and understands how the Swiss mortgage system works.
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