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  #12981  
Old 24.09.2020, 10:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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How old is the average student in a US University?

Come on man, do some thinking before posting. No one is arguing that young people are bot likely to get hospitalized.
Exactly. The biggest rise in numbers of case now across Europe is amongst young people but hospital admissions and deaths remain really low as these are not the people who are most at risk from the virus.

One has to look at the whole picture and not just cherry pick information to suit a narrative.
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  #12982  
Old 24.09.2020, 10:21
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Re: Coronavirus

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After almost 50k infections among 37 universities in USA there have been only 37 hospitalizations and 0 deaths! I guess bigger chance to be hit by a lightning or winning the Euromillions !
A New York Times survey of more than 1,600 American colleges and universities — including every four-year public institution, every private college that competes in N.C.A.A. sports and others that identified cases — has revealed at least 88,000 cases and at least 60 deaths since the pandemic began.

Source

Or from the British Medical Journal "Today, the national [US Universities] reopening experiment already looks to have been a disaster."

Of course, it is difficult to measure hospitalisions of such students since usually universities send people home if an out break occurs and then hospitalised near home.
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  #12983  
Old 24.09.2020, 10:37
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Re: Coronavirus

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How old is the average student in a US University?

Come on man, do some thinking before posting. No one is arguing that young people are bot likely to get hospitalized.
So why young folks are being denied education? In Lausanne, because of 11 people infected they quarantined 2500 students!

In Zurich a 7 year-old girl was ordered to quarantine at home, she had no symptoms, she wasn't sick, only because her teacher tested positive.
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  #12984  
Old 24.09.2020, 10:42
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Re: Coronavirus

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A New York Times survey of more than 1,600 American colleges and universities — including every four-year public institution, every private college that competes in N.C.A.A. sports and others that identified cases — has revealed at least 88,000 cases and at least 60 deaths since the pandemic began.
This is amazing news! This means that the death rate is 0.07%. Now if you multiply this by the probability to get infected on the first place this will go even lower.

The advice that BelgiunMum gave to not cherry pick data applies to you as well; it shows nothing. Karl Popper managed to move the whole scientific world away from inductivism, lets keep his spirit alive
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  #12985  
Old 24.09.2020, 11:10
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Re: Coronavirus

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This is amazing news! This means that the death rate is 0.07%. Now if you multiply this by the probability to get infected on the first place this will go even lower.

The advice that BelgiunMum gave to not cherry pick data applies to you as well; it shows nothing. Karl Popper managed to move the whole scientific world away from inductivism, lets keep his spirit alive
In university students. There is nothing new about this. See link for Swiss data on death rate per age group: https://covid-19-schweiz.bagapps.ch/de-1.html

Doesn't change a thing for me. This is a disease I really do not want to get.
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  #12986  
Old 24.09.2020, 11:15
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Re: Coronavirus

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So why young folks are being denied education? In Lausanne, because of 11 people infected they quarantined 2500 students!

In Zurich a 7 year-old girl was ordered to quarantine at home, she had no symptoms, she wasn't sick, only because her teacher tested positive.
Firstly, they are part of a huge infection hotspot because they attended parties without safety precautions.

Second: Poor wording. They aren't denied education. Stop stirring up drama.
If my students are sent to quarantine they recieve online tutoring and exercises, which they better return within the given deadline.
Being quarantine doesn't mean that school stops.
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  #12987  
Old 24.09.2020, 11:19
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Re: Coronavirus

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So why young folks are being denied education? In Lausanne, because of 11 people infected they quarantined 2500 students!
Come on, this is a serious case of lack of open-mindedness and sense of humor.

La école de hôtelèrie de Lausanne it's surprisingly.......a hotel. Most of students are from around the world and they live in the school. Not being allowed to leave the hotel is just practicing for their future life as hotel workers: managers, chefs, etc. By staying quarantined in the hotel they are getting the BEST possible education they can get. They are getting education shoved down their throats 24/7 until Sep 28. Change my mind
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  #12988  
Old 24.09.2020, 11:26
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Re: Coronavirus

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Being quarantine doesn't mean that school stops.
If home schooling was a good option, everybody would be doing it, not only rednecks.

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Come on, this is a serious case of lack of open-mindedness and sense of humor.

La école de hôtelèrie de Lausanne it's surprisingly.......a hotel. Most of students are from around the world and they live in the school. Not being allowed to leave the hotel is just practicing for their future life as hotel workers: managers, chefs, etc. By staying quarantined in the hotel they are getting the BEST possible education they can get. They are getting education shoved down their throats 24/7 until Sep 28. Change my mind
With around 200k tuition costs for a bachelor program I don't think many of them will be busting their asses in hotel kitchens or lobbies later on in their career
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  #12989  
Old 24.09.2020, 11:30
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Re: Coronavirus

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If home schooling was a good option, everybody would be doing it, not only rednecks.
You do know that home schooling is not the same as distance learning, right?
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Old 24.09.2020, 11:46
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Re: Coronavirus

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You do know that home schooling is not the same as distance learning, right?
And to do a Marton - do you have any source () for the assertion that only "rednecks" homeschool. I'd imagine it was hippy dippy types.
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Old 24.09.2020, 11:54
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Re: Coronavirus

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...the assertion that only "rednecks" homeschool. I'd imagine it was hippy dippy types.
Aren't those synonyms? . I always thought that it's called a Redneck in Georgia, and a Hipster in Cali, but the refer to the same mental disorder
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  #12992  
Old 24.09.2020, 12:03
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Re: Coronavirus

At last the UK has sorted out it's Track & Trace App - so the question is
does it require legal powers to enforce it's use to make Track & Trace App's
really effective ( not only in the UK ) in any country that introduces
it or has it in place.

As downloading the App remains compeletely voluntary and relies on people 'doing the right thing' and being public spirited' enough to install the
App.
Although as we all know - those that organise and attend 'rave parties' ( for example ) tend to forget or ignore their 'public spirited obligations' and flout the law on these matters.

BBC News - Covid-19 App England & Wales get contact tracing App

Apparently the British government have already told users of the App that they will be fined £1000 if they fail to self-isolate after being informed by
the App that they have come into contact with someone who has been
diagnosed as having Covid-19; long enough to risk being infected themselves.

I have no doubt that many people will 'do the right thing' but as I said before there are a lot of 'what if's and buts surrounding it's effectiveness
where even for those that install it on their mobiles - might still forget to have their mobile on and them at all times with the usual excuses
of 'I left it in the car' or left it recharging in the car or at home before
coming out.
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Surely the time has come for Boris to 'circle the wagons' for a bit of herd immunity ?
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  #12993  
Old 24.09.2020, 12:44
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Re: Coronavirus

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As usual, a very balanced and well-written piece by the FT, this time focusing on Finland. I realize it's behind a paywall, so a few snippets

"Finland’s approach — and the similar one of Denmark and Norway — of shutting down rapidly but not totally to get the pandemic under control, and then reopening after a couple of months has been one of the most successful in Europe in this early stage of coronavirus."

Very interestingly, wasn't aware myself:

"One big distinction between Finland and all other European countries is its focus on preparedness and how to act in national emergencies, born out of its collective experience during the Winter War in 1939-40 against the Soviet Union. Its law on preparedness explicitly mentions pandemics and was triggered for the first time since the second world war while its emergency stockpiles of medical and protective equipment were the envy of the continent amid shortages elsewhere.

Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist who reviewed the preparedness in Finland several years ago, said: “Their level of preparedness is just way beyond anything we would even dream about in Sweden. But, of course, if you have a neighbour like Russia and you’ve fought wars with them forever . . . ”


“Of course, we can’t keep society closed forever. That is what we are balancing right now — how do you keep society functioning as much as possible while keeping the disease under control?”



https://www.ft.com/content/61dccfaa-...c-dbe6d5b5b5f8
I wonder if you (or TonyClifton before thanking it) realize that this piece is promoting the highest level of quick action and preparedness, combined with a lack of boneheaded deniers who mock government action and refuse to follow the rules. I really wonder if you guys actually know what you're arguing for. Or maybe you're all just scared and confused, and lashing out is all you know. *sigh*

Last edited by robogobo; 24.09.2020 at 13:26.
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  #12994  
Old 24.09.2020, 12:49
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Re: Coronavirus

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...rus-mutations/

Incase of paywall, full text below

Massive genetic study shows coronavirus mutating and potentially evolving amid rapid U.S. spread

The largest U.S. genetic study of the virus, conducted in Houston, shows one viral strain outdistancing all of its competitors, and many potentially important mutations.

Joe Fox
September 23 at 2:31 PM

Scientists in Houston on Wednesday released a study of more than 5,000 genetic sequences of the coronavirus that reveals the virus’s continual accumulation of mutations, one of which may have made it more contagious.

The new report, however, did not find that these mutations have made the virus deadlier or changed clinical outcomes. All viruses accumulate genetic mutations, and most are insignificant, scientists say.

Coronaviruses such as SARS-CoV-2 are relatively stable as viruses go, because they have a proofreading mechanism as they replicate. But every mutation is a roll of the dice, and with transmission so widespread in the United States — which continues to see tens of thousands of new, confirmed infections daily — the virus has had abundant opportunities to change, potentially with troublesome consequences, said study author James Musser of Houston Methodist Hospital.

“We have given this virus a lot of chances,” Musser told The Washington Post. “There is a huge population size out there right now.”

Like all coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 has a series of characteristic spikes surrounding its core. These spikes are what allow the virus to attach to human cells.

A mutation affecting the spike protein changed amino acid 614 from “D” (aspartic acid) to “G” (glycine). Research suggests that this small change — which affects three identical amino acid chains — might enhance the virus’s transmissibility.

Scientists from Weill Cornell Medicine, the University of Chicago, Argonne National Laboratory and the University of Texas at Austin also contributed to the study.

The new study, which has not been peer-reviewed, was posted Wednesday on the preprint server MedRxiv. It appears to be the largest single aggregation of genetic sequences of the virus in the United States thus far. A larger batch of sequences was published earlier this month by scientists in the United Kingdom, and, like the Houston study, concluded that a mutation that changes the structure of the “spike protein” on the surface of the virus may be driving the outsized spread of that particular strain.

David Morens, a virologist at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, reviewed the new study and said the findings point to the strong possibility that the virus, as it has moved through the population, has become more transmissible, and that this “may have implications for our ability to control it.”

Morens noted that this is a single study, and “you don’t want to over-interpret what this means.” But the virus, he said, could potentially be responding — through random mutations — to such interventions as mask-wearing and social distancing, Morens said Wednesday.

“Wearing masks, washing our hands, all those things are barriers to transmissibility, or contagion, but as the virus becomes more contagious it statistically is better at getting around those barriers,” said Morens, senior adviser to Anthony S. Fauci, the director of NIAID.

This has implications for the formulation of vaccines, Morens said. As people gain immunity, either through infections or a vaccine, the virus could be under selective pressure to evade the human immune response.

“Although we don’t know yet, it is well within the realm of possibility that this coronavirus, when our population-level immunity gets high enough, this coronavirus will find a way to get around our immunity,” Morens said. “If that happened, we’d be in the same situation as with flu. We’ll have to chase the virus and, as it mutates, we’ll have to tinker with our vaccine.”

Peter Thielen, a molecular biologist at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, said scientists will need to continue studying the virus to see whether the new mutations identified by the Houston researchers change the “fitness” of the virus, “and if SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility is truly increased as a result of these mutations.”

Another scientist who has studied the coronavirus, Jeremy Luban, a virologist at the University of Massachusetts Medical School, said in an email Wednesday that “the Houston paper highlights the fact that, with respect to SARS-CoV-2, we need to remain vigilant, and increase our capacity to monitor the virus for mutations.”

At Houston Methodist, whose main hospital is part of the Texas Medical Center in central Houston but also includes hospitals around the city, scientists have been sequencing the 30,000-character genome of the coronavirus since early March, when the virus first appears to have arrived in the metropolitan area of 7 million. The paper documents 5,085 sequences.

The research shows that the virus disseminated across Houston neighborhoods in two waves, first striking wealthier and older individuals but then spreading, in the second wave, to younger people and lower income neighborhoods — affecting many Latino city residents.

At the same time, as the virus spread Zip code by Zip code, it also compiled a catalogue of mutations, many affecting the spike protein. That structure on the surface of the virus, which resembles a tree decked with curled ribbons, enables the virus to enter cells.

During the second wave, more than 99% of samples contained the D614G mutation

The genetic data show the virus arrived in Houston many separate times, presumably at first by air travel. Notably, 71 percent of the viruses that arrived initially were characterized by a now famous mutation, which appears to have first originated in China, that scientists increasingly suspect may give the virus a biological advantage in how it spreads. It is called D614G, referring to the substitution of an amino acid called aspartic acid (D) for one called glycine (G) in a region of the genome that encodes the spike protein.

By the second wave of the outbreak in Houston, the study found that this variant had leaped to 99.9 percent prevalence — completing its domination of the outbreak. The researchers found that people infected with the strain had higher loads of virus in their upper respiratory tracts, a potential factor in making the strain spread more effectively.

Kristian Andersen, an immunologist at the Scripps Research Institute in California, who was not involved in the new research, downplayed the significance of the new study. He said it “just confirms what has already been described — G increased in frequency over time.” As for the numerous other mutations the study finds, “they just catalogue them, but we don’t know if any of them have any functional relevance.”

Musser said his interpretation is that D614G has been increasingly dominant in Houston and other areas because it is better adapted to spreading among humans. He acknowledged that the scientific case is not closed on this matter.

“This isn’t a murder trial,” Musser said. “We’re not looking for beyond a reasonable doubt. This is a civil trial, and clearly, it’s the preponderance of the evidence that I think forces all of us into the same conclusion, which is there’s something biologically different about that strain, that family of strains.”

A medical worker walks past ambulances parked outside of Houston Methodist Hospital amid the global coronavirus outbreak in Houston in June. (Callaghan O'hare/Reuters)
Recently, the even larger study of the spread of the coronavirus in the United Kingdom, based on some 25,000 genomes, also found evidence that this variant of the virus outdistances its competitors “in a manner consistent with a selective advantage.”

In general, scientists would expect natural selection to favor mutations that help the virus spread more effectively — since that allows it to make more copies of itself — but not necessarily ones that make it more virulent. Killing or incapacitating the host would generally not help the virus spread to more people.

The study found 285 separate mutation sites that change a physical building block of the spike protein, which is the most important part of the coronavirus in the sense that it is what allows it to infect and harm humans. Forty-nine of the changes at these sites had not been seen before in other genomes sequenced around the world.

The study characterizes some of the spike protein mutations as “disconcerting.” While the paper does not present strong proof that any additional evolution of the spike protein is occurring, it suggests that these repeated substitutions provide a hint that, as the virus interacts with our bodies and our immune systems, it may be learning new tricks that help it respond to its host.

“I think there’s pretty good evidence that’s consistent with immunologic selection acting on certain regions of the spike protein,” Musser said.

The actual mutations in the virus occur randomly as it makes mistakes trying to copy its genome within our cells. But every new case gives a chance for more mutations to occur, which in turn increases the chance that one of these mutations will be useful to the virus, just as D614G apparently already has been.

Given the changes that are already occurring to the genetic code of the virus, one key conclusion of Musser’s is that we are not sequencing it nearly enough if we want to be able to anticipate what the virus will do next.

While some large metropolitan areas in the United States, such as Seattle and Boston, are also doing a great deal of sequencing, the country as a whole is missing many areas — and many potential virus variants, as a result. Even in Houston, the study estimates that only about 10 percent of known coronavirus cases have been sequenced.

“I think we need to be doing this pretty aggressively in multiple locations on a real-time basis,” Musser said. “I think it’s shameful that we’re not doing that.”

Sarah Kaplan and Aaron Steckelberg contributed to this report.
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  #12995  
Old 24.09.2020, 12:58
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Re: Coronavirus

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At last the UK has sorted out it's Track & Trace App - so the question is
does it require legal powers to enforce it's use to make Track & Trace App's
really effective ( not only in the UK ) in any country that introduces
it or has it in place.

As downloading the App remains compeletely voluntary and relies on people 'doing the right thing' and being public spirited' enough to install the
App.
Although as we all know - those that organise and attend 'rave parties' ( for example ) tend to forget or ignore their 'public spirited obligations' and flout the law on these matters.

BBC News - Covid-19 App England & Wales get contact tracing App

Apparently the British government have already told users of the App that they will be fined £1000 if they fail to self-isolate after being informed by
the App that they have come into contact with someone who has been
diagnosed as having Covid-19; long enough to risk being infected themselves.

I have no doubt that many people will 'do the right thing' but as I said before there are a lot of 'what if's and buts surrounding it's effectiveness
where even for those that install it on their mobiles - might still forget to have their mobile on and them at all times with the usual excuses
of 'I left it in the car' or left it recharging in the car or at home before
coming out.
Don't lump the whole UK together. Scotland (at least) has had a track and trace app for several weeks already
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  #12996  
Old 24.09.2020, 12:59
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Re: Coronavirus

Well that was pretty interesting, although the implications are not yet clear. (The WP article)
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Old 24.09.2020, 13:28
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Re: Coronavirus

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Well that was pretty interesting, although the implications are not yet clear. (The WP article)
I'm sure TonyClifton will take it as absolute proof of herd immunity and we can all go back to normal now.
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Old 24.09.2020, 13:37
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Re: Coronavirus

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If home schooling was a good option, everybody would be doing it, not only rednecks.
Home Schooling is resource intensive and often requires a family able to live on a single income - in the US.

So families who do this often desire a different structure than the local school be it less secular, more creative, meeting special needs, etc.

Where do the rednecks fit in? Most of the people I knew who home schooled were decidedly not rednecks.
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Old 24.09.2020, 13:48
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Re: Coronavirus

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1308477729440964610

Been following Devi Sridhar for a while on Twitter and what she says makes a lot of sense a lot of the time.
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Old 24.09.2020, 14:20
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Re: Coronavirus

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https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1308477729440964610



Been following Devi Sridhar for a while on Twitter and what she says makes a lot of sense a lot of the time.
She seems to have a handle on societal implications.

I watched Dr Fauci engage with Rand Paul yesterday. He’s started to use “community immunity” instead of herd immunity. I guess it’s a new concept.



Here’s a link to their interactions

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/23/p...rus/index.html

Here’s the community immunity bit....

“You’ve been a big fan of Cuomo and the shutdown of New York," he said to Fauci. "You've lauded New York for their policy. New York had the highest death rate in the world."

Paul also suggested that New York City had achieved a kind of "community immunity" because so many people had the virus, as explanation for why its current case load and death rate were so low -- not the mitigation tactics offered by Facui like mask-wearing, social distancing and hand-washing.

"I challenge that," responded Fauci, adding: "This happens with Senator Rand all the time. You are not listening to what the director of the CDC said. ... If you believe 22% is herd immunity, I believe you are alone in that."

I’m sorry if any of you are fans of Paul. I find him idiotic.
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